posted on Mar, 13 2015 @ 07:46 PM
(I should mention that I will be diverging from the main point of your thread, but I believe this related information is necessary given the
revelations in the news today of Russian military buildup.) Does anyone really think that Putin and the Russian government care about the people in
Crimea? Of course they don't. This same reason has been cited for past annexations in Europe by multiple nations in the past. The takeover of the
area was for one main reason, which can be broken down into the following: strategic, political, and economic advantages that come with Crimea.
Obviously nations will welcome the expansion of sovereign territory, and the lower the cost, whether the cost is financial or paid in blood, the
better the deal is for the expanding nation. The parallels between the annexation of Crimea and the annexations performed prior to the start of WWII
are interesting in my opinion, and I noticed others were thinking along these lines as well. However, I think the main difference between Russia's
actions and those of Nazi Germany are ideological. Russia's main reason for their actions in Crimea hinge on the strategic implications that would
have come from the loss of their Black Sea naval base. I would be willing to bet that Russia has had a plan in place since they first leased the area
from their neighbor. Meaning that if for some reason it appeared they would lose that base, military action would be taken. I'm sure various factors
went into the timing of the small offensive. So Russia's main goal was the improvement of their strategic situation, and the benefits that come from
owning the area outright.
But while the benefits to the military sphere are great, this does not necessarily mean Russia's timing is a foreshadowing of their future
intentions. The news today has been full of interviews with people who are convinced Russia is going to attack America. This is utterly ridiculous.
The threat of nuclear war is virtually non-existent at present. The threat of total war may be slightly more probable, but is still highly unlikely,
mainly because total war precedes nuclear war in the most plausible scenarios. It would be a mistake to think that Russia would launch a massive
nuclear bombardment at the US, because this would sign their own death warrant. It is just not feasible. The current military thinking is that the
only feasible way to launch a first-strike with one's nuclear arsenal is if the attacking side could guarantee the destruction of the enemy's
nuclear arsenal on the ground, and this is not possible for nations with as large of a nuclear arsenal as Russia or the US.
I just get so annoyed because many people believe that Russia's actions in Crimea are indicative of what is to come, when war is still a long way
off, IF it comes at all. There is nothing that has occurred at present that says war is on the horizon. Today the talk has been of Russia's military
buildup, and this is not something that is unfounded. Military buildup, while necessary for a large conflict, does not imply a large conflict. Meaning
that there are other reasons for building up one's military forces, the main one being two-fold. Not only does possessing a large military force make
any potential enemies think twice before taking military action against your nation or its interests, but a large military also gives the possessing
nation much more bargaining power. Sometimes the threat of invasion is enough to gain certain concessions, and I have a feeling this is what Putin is
after. He simply does not want to appear bullied by the US and her allies. However, he should know the US well enough to determine that we do not
really scare in the face of threats, no matter how veiled they are. But he knows that the US military is in no position to really do anything to
Russia. This is another way we know that Russia's intentions are not too nefarious. He can build up the Russian military without really bringing more
danger to Russia. The benefits outweigh the risks, and the military forces might be useful in the future as well.
They could have easily gone into Ukraine and conquered the whole territory if they were so inclined, and the time to strike has passed if they wanted
to maintain the element of surprise, which almost always confers a certain military advantage. You can negate certain enemy advantages by achieving
the element of surprise, although Russia is the force with the advantages. Even in a US-Russian war Russia would have many advantages, the most
pressing being that they are fighting on their home soil. Thus they have the interior strategic lines, making the shifting of their forces much easier
than their enemies, and meaning that they have all of their military resources in a place where they can essentially be concentrated. Given all of
these advantages, if Russia had military intentions in Ukraine then they would have gone for the throat by now. There is virtually no chance of a US
military response on any meaningful level. Thus Russia could get away with it. What military recourse do other nations possess, even an alliance of
nations? The nuclear option is off the table. An air campaign would definitely make up part of any US military response, and against a conventional
enemy would have a greater chance of success than against terrorist groups like ISIL, but the major difference is that Russia possesses modern air
defense systems, as well as aircraft of their own, with many skilled aviators. Without ground troops an air campaign would be useless against Russia.
Then there is the chance of US strategic leaders making incorrect decisions about targets, or placing certain target restrictions that would limit the
potential effectiveness of such a campaign, akin to what happened in Vietnam. But the use of ground troops would be more expensive than most people
realize, and would cost much in terms of human life as well. If the US could run Russia out of Ukraine in a hypothetical scenario, the war would
likely end there, because total war is not possible in the nuclear age in my opinion. Limited wars will rule the day from here on out, at least
between nuclear nations. I've explained the reasons for this in other posts. But the US would be hard-pressed to achieve such a lofty objective. It
could be done, but would cost too much. Thus the only way for the US and her allies to avoid such high costs in that scenario is to simply avoid war
with another superpower. That is how Russia could get away with invading Ukraine. They know this. So why haven't they done it yet? And while the US
can militarily walk all over small nations, the last US experience in a similar conflict was WWII. Korea was not similar, and neither was Vietnam or
the Persian Gulf War. The latter was the last US experience in mass movements of troops and other actions that would be necessary against Russia. But
the enemy in that circumstance, while formidable on paper, was little more than a token resistance force, aside from some crack Republican Guard
divisions, who could not hope to really do anything against such advanced equipment. US tanks could both see and shoot first, and the main power of
the Iraqi army came from the RG armored units. I'm just saying that many have forgotten the true cost of such a large conflict like would be seen
with Russia. And if the US leaders forget this, and get us involved with Russia, they will soon be reminded. The cost of modern, conventional war is
high.