Quake Watch 2015

This Chile SERIES trebled the Global Energy Released for 2015 in one day.
The 8.4Mw, at 60,036 Kilo Tons (Not Tons of TNT as I usually post, that would be 60,036,000 Tons) alone, now accounts for just under 62% of ER this year.

stong aftershock from 2 hours ago:

www.emsc-csem.org...

a reply to: Eagleyedobserver

The 'aftershocks' seem to be getting stronger. I hope the big one was not a foreshock, that would be very bad.

P

I screwed up and erased an amzing piece of writing. Oh, oh misery.

Here's the deprss ed 2nd attempt.... crying....

oregon...
idaho.....

i hate me

a reply to: ericblair4891

I hate when that happens.

But .... there is a ray of sunshine.

Take a break, then type it out again. Your second attempt will be simply amazing!

Take a deep breath .... and ...... type!

P

Here's my third attempt. I can't recreate the original. It was written so fast I had three full paragraphs before I even though about save the material or posting it before I cause a technical problem. I hit back on the page and I hadn't saved, and I'm writing directly in the box here with no back up. Ug. I burned it all. So, I'll try my best to - it was good_ crap. Copies are never the original.

It started thusly, in a way as to warn and ward off people who don't like me...



If you've read my posts in the past, and you find me tiresome, stop reading now.
I'm angry. (I knew this would be no good- I was so angry, I'm not as angry now- damn- it was white hot- you can't just turn it on and off- I even wrote at the end of the three paragraphs that writing is therapeutic and it helps with angry. It worked, now I can't go back to that moment and rage again. )

So, that's not so good. To summarize, I talked about my rage being like army engineers who blow up the wrong bridges at the wrong time. I commended Muzzy and Puterman, and myself and everyone else. and I said we are like the amatuers that can correctly guess the amount of jelly beans in a jar at the county fair.

It was brilliant. DAMN> Ahhhhhh. I remember now why I hit the wrong tab and erased my work, I was looking up the word lubarious. be back....

Ludicrous comes from latin. I was wrong and it doesn't have anything to do with prefix LUN as in LUNAR. and lunatic

Because I called myself a looney. The moon. Of course, I'm a lunatic wh's foun' they way back to the same lunacy, again. Crazy people tend to get fixated. Mine is the moon.


I'm blaming everything on the moon. Everything. Everything. Everything. It's like the real estate slogan, location, location, location. With earth, it's the moon. Without it, we have an undynamic planet. I know undynamic isn't a ______ing word. I don't care. I just made it up. I'm that damn angry, I declare I have the right to make up words. The rage is bubbling again. However, it's very mild.... Not even medium sause for chicken wings.


The moon. The eclipse. Etc. Muzzy is right that the moon is not reguarly, or obviously effecting earthquakes. But there is a tiny difference which needs to be understood. Even if pedestrain walks away from the 20 car pileup they caused, it does not mean that they weren't responsible. The pedstrian was the cataylasyt and was not any real part of energy of the chain reaction. Simply, the position of the pedestrian causes the traffic to become unorganized.

I want ot screammmmmm.

I'm bettter. ahhh breathing - the only thing that works

that's what i tell tharapist. i guess i should add writing. it helps too


too much


In conclusion, forget everything I just wrote, go over to Yellowstone, the second incarnation, and look at the graphy, mathy things I posted....

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I posted the graphs because I was finding a discrepancy between what the YVO is reporting and the actual data. Like I said in my post, don't listen to me, look with your eyes and you judge.


I had a really bad argument with someone. I told them I feel judged. Criticized. They said it was merely an observation. Splitting. Language seems to always be about splitting hairs. In order to judge, we need to makes many observations. They are part of the same thing. You cannot make a judgement with understanding the aggregate of all the observations. One observation can be deceptive. Or, making several observations without noticing the small changes between observations, can misrepresent the truth. Hence, the cliche',

Let's discover the origin of the link between statistics and lies. For educational purposes, let's include "food studies" and marketing. Mark Twain popularized the idea.

Mark Twain popularized the saying in Chapters from My Autobiography, published in the North American Review in 1906. "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

en.wikipedia.org...

Mark Twain's name is a lie.
He's Samuel Clemens.
I am not Eric Blair.
Eric Blair is Geroge Orwell.
I is loony.

Final edit. In order to educate and enlighten your life, you now must listen to an amazing Johnny Cash song. Whenever I think the world is crusifying me, I stop my repenting, and I wish them all the best, and let the world know, that I'll see you all in hell....

Hell, why this, why my obsession is the moon. Because someone is trying to prove to me hell exists.

Here's a good story. The white man who first found the location of the volcano under Yellowstone, was thought a lunatic. When he described the conditions he found, people imagined what he said to be the same as hell. They laughed at him and never believed he watched boiling hot water explode into the air. They said the Yellow Rock which smell like sulfur wasn't the brimstone of hell; they said the ideas were all in his head...

Oh yeah, here's a song call Sam Hall

www.youtube.com...

I'm singing right now.

I hate you all. But here's the sadder truth, I love so much it hurts....

Here's some data, just so this post isn't full of my hot air...

Oregon Earthquake 3.1m
Idaho 2.9M

Coincidence or not. you decide.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

The rage is still bubbling.

I found the history of the song Sam Hall. The more I know the more I love. I've swept a chimney or two. Me mum face was so black once, her yellowy teeth looked as bright white as anything I'd ever seen. It's contrasts me boy.

I am Sam Hall. I will not repent any further. Everyone has limits.

There are so many versions to listen to ... try a few.

www.youtube.com...
www.youtube.com...

Here's an early Cash...

www.youtube.com...


Oh, ALMOST FORGOT. Forget me. Check Out SeekingDepths Post on Volcano Watch. I won't say anything. You figure it out yourself....

www.abovetopsecret.com...




:uz i:


::dev il::ha il::

Despite all my rage, I'm still a rat in a cage...
despite all my rage, i still walk the line

www.youtube.com...

I remember, in the lost post, I made up a new word. In my rage, I demand I had the power to make up words. The moment is lost. But here's the word. Undynamic.

a reply to: pheonix358
they are actually following Omori's law in that they are decaying.
Apart from the 6.0Mw
rightclickviewimageforfullsize

It is early days yet, only 36 38 hrs have passed, these likely will go on for weeks, if not longer
I see a trend towards the south in the last 4-5 hours
there have been 207 aftershocks so far (data by Centro Sismológico Nacional, Universidad de Chile)
I also see that this is a very slow aftershock series, about average of an aftershock every 11 minutes.
Animation
each image is an hours worth of events
it gets a bit clustered near the half way mark in the central part of the fault break
I didn't post it directly on ATS as its 5.3MB+, don't want to run out of image space



another animation
M6+ aftershocks, with elapsed time in the bottom left corner
we had a bit of a pattern going for a while
Mag - Time Between
8.4 -
7.1 - 0:04:47
6.1 - 0:04:41
6.8 - 0:12:12
7.6 - 0:02:27
*
6.0 - 2:14:25
6.5 - 0:08:05
6.0 - 2:14:10
6.6 - 0:15:12
*
6.0 - 9:21:59
6.0 - 19:38:14

Atlantic Ocean

Is this a result of the shift from the 8.4 the other day?

M 5.4 - Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge


Time 2015-09-18 15:59:42 UTC
Location 15.264° N 45.948°W
Depth 10.0 km

Bishop

a reply to: Bishop2199
Probably not, its on a Spreading Ridge on a different Tectonic Plate.

a reply to: Bishop2199

Significant upgrade on that quake.

M6.0 - Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

15.234°N 45.973°W depth=10.0 km (6.2 mi)

Time
2015-09-18 15:59:42 (UTC)
2015-09-18 10:59:42 (UTC-05:00) in your timezone

USGS

Side note seems to be alot of shakin going on tonight.

Chile update with 38:32:15 - 53:49:44 elapsed time
rightclickviewimageforfullsize

another 13hr Chile update at 66:56:59 (hh:mm:ss) elapsed time,
NOW there is an upsurge in magnitudes, if not numbers (66 new)
elapsed time, when, lat, long, mag, type, where
54:12:17, 19/09/2015 05:06:45, -29.653, -72.276, 30, 6.3, Mw, 101 km al NO de Tongoy
58:12:39, 19/09/2015 09:07:07, -31.128, -71.578, 34.2, 6.1, Mw, 32 km al NO de Canela Baja
61:57:52, 19/09/2015 12:52:20, -32.326, -71.906, 26.9, 6.3, Mw, 59 km al SO de Los Vilos

I bet that 6.1Mw on land near Mantos de Hornillos (finger on map) shook that village a bit, although often right close to the epicentre the intensity isn't felt as much as say 50-100km away.
rightclickviewimageforfullsize



for those not familiar with Spanish language, the locations show
O = Oeste = West
N = Nor = North
S = Sur = South
E = Este = East
therefore
NO = Nor Oeste = North West
SO = Sur Oeste = South West
NE = Nor Este = North East
SE = Sur Este = South East

al = to the
de = of (preposition)

California is so quiet today....

Anyone else thinking that too?

a reply to: MamaJ

I have been popping in and out all day, checking. I have noticed the quiet.

I have also been watching this area.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Been giggy all day.

www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca...

a reply to: muzzy

Not sure why there should be a difference there as EMSC reports Chilean quakes directly becuase, just in case anyone was unaware, Chile is part of Europe so quakes down to 2.0 get reported. This is lower than you can get on the University of Chile site.

What we are seeing at Chile is not out of the ordinary for the region. If you look at the quakes in 2010 you can see the same pattern.

Andean South America aggregated Mag 6+ Earthquakes 2010


Chile notably has runs of big quakes and fewer lower magnitude quakes that other areas prior to and after such an event.


@MamaJ

California is so quiet today....

I can't hear it either but then it is 6000 miles away!

Actually I just went away and did a cumulative chart of all M1.0+ quake from USGS in the California areas, i.e. Northern, Southern and Baja for the past 2 months.

The angle of the cumulative is constant, thus there is no perceptible change as far as I can see. Of course this does not mean that an individual area may have 'gone quiet' especial if the Gulf of California temporarily changed the stress patterns. There is a miniscule flattening in the past 2 days, but not enough to be statistically significant.

Click the image to enlarge

M6.3 - OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 6.3
Date-Time • 21 Sep 2015 05:39:33 UTC
• 21 Sep 2015 02:39:34 near epicenter
• 21 Sep 2015 14:39:33 standard time in your timezone
Location 31.585S 71.712W
Depth 22 km
Distances • 52 km (32 mi) W of Illapel, Chile
• 73 km (45 mi) WNW of Salamanca, Chile
• 106 km (65 mi) NNW of La Ligua, Chile
• 119 km (73 mi) SSW of Ovalle, Chile
• 230 km (142 mi) NNW of Santiago, Chile
Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 5.4 km; Vertical 4.5 km
Parameters Nph = 136; Dmin = 101.6 km; Rmss = 1.33 seconds; Gp = 72°
Version =
Event ID us 20003mcj
For updates, maps, and technical information, see: Event Page or USGS Earthquake Hazards Program

Please hate me. Hate me. So, I can hate me even more. I'm am, in my head, running around like chicken little, saying, Idaho and Nevada are linked, they're linked. Again today. Months now, they chime closely.

To go on would be to repeat myself. However, I will say that over on Yellowstone 2, I have challenged everyone to pick the next date for the next big swarm. I'm not saying it's tomorrow. But I will say it will probably be within months. Absolutely before Feb. So, guess away...



I hast to went backst and checkst. I clicked on the map to show both states over the last two weeks. Muzzy, Puterman, you guys can do better than me. When I look just at the last seven days, it would seem like they are connected. But how? I don't know. You guys are busy. I know Muzzy has done a great job just on the "Bald Mountain" swarms. Is that what we're calling thems. I know I'm always looking for connections. And I see them lots even when they're not there. But I'm always testing them. This connection keeps going and defies my efforts to dismiss.

a reply to: InnerPeace2012

still rockin more 6's

M6.5 - 46km WSW of Illapel, Chile

31.742°S 71.635°W depth=24.7 km (15.3 mi)

Time
2015-09-21 17:39:58 (UTC)
2015-09-21 12:39:58 (UTC-05:00) in your timezone
Times in other timezones

USGS

originally posted by: MamaJ
California is so quiet today....

Anyone else thinking that too?

Been quiet for a while... at least the southern part, even south-eastern - like Landers and such.
San Jacinto fault zone has a fair amount of small ones but Elsinore is oddly quiet from what I can remember, as is San Andreas. Elsinore really bothers me because I live on the eastern side of it. It's not releasing much stress, only pushing into San Jacinto and San Andreas.

originally posted by: PuterMan
a reply to: muzzy

Not sure why there should be a difference there as EMSC reports Chilean quakes directly becuase, just in case anyone was unaware, Chile is part of Europe so quakes down to 2.0 get reported. This is lower than you can get on the University of Chile site.

What we are seeing at Chile is not out of the ordinary for the region. If you look at the quakes in 2010 you can see the same pattern.

Agreed, not too much out of the ordinary for Chile (over the longer term)
No I don't get the difference between EMSC and GUC, when the first reference "More information at:" on these Chilean quakes on EMSC is Universidad de Chile, Dep. de Geofisica, Chile.
Just looking at that last M6.5/6.7 @ UTC 2015/09/21 17:39:58, EMSC don't even list GUC's magnitude estimates in the scientific data at all.
So EMSC must be doing their own locating and estimating for Chile.
Time, Lat, Long, Depth, Mag, Type, Network
2015-09-21 17:39:57.2, 31.71 S, 71.47 W, 12km, 6.5Mw, EMSC
21/09/2015 17:39:58, -31.757, -71.551, 12.5km, 6.7 Mw, GUC