Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

a reply to: Destinyone

Ikon. Thank you...thank you...thank you!

This needed to be posted. Those of you who keep chirping that all is under control, I hope you go back and read the transcript Ikon posted.

Folks...these are the mover and shakers of money, power, and industry globally.

If they have no game plan, and are far better informed than we can ever hope to be...AND, they are scared of the global implications of where this situation might be heading....

You're welcome, Des. I read the transcript before finding the audio, and I was reading parts of it to my wife like I imagined they might have sounded. I thought I was exaggerating the tone. Then I found the audio and listened to the parts I read. I had seriously underestimated the tone of the call.

These are people who advise presidents, congress, secretaries of state, heads of the CIA, etc. It was quite disturbing to hear Laurie Garrett's voice cracking as she described how serious the situation is and as she said over and over, slower and slower, "We have... NO... strategic... plan. We... have...... NO...... strategic...... plan."

The three main people on the call all have extensive backgrounds, but I was especially impressed when I went out and looked up Laurie Garrett's one page bio and her curriculum vitae. No wonder she's the senior fellow for global health at the CFR - these are just a few highlights, her CV contains 22 pages of this:

Senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) since 2004

Expertise includes global health systems, chronic and infectious diseases, and bioterrorism

Graduated with honors in biology from the University of California in Santa Cruz (1975)

Graduate school in the Department of Bacteriology and Immunology at UC Berkeley

Research at Stanford University in the laboratory of Dr. Leonard Herzenberg (1975-77)

As a graduate student, awarded a full NIH fellowship

Became interested in journalism and science journalism and has worked for decades in the news industry on radio, TV, and print, everything from NPR and the BBC to Reuters

She is the only writer ever to have won all three of these journalism awards: The Peabody, The Polk (twice), and The Pulitzer

The Pulitzer Prize was for her work on Ebola

Honored with two doctorates in humane letters honoris causa, from Wesleyan Illinois University and the University of Massachusetts, Lowell

Author of The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance

Author of Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health

Attended Harvard University as a Visiting Fellow in the Harvard School of Public Health

Visiting professor at multiple universities

Appeared frequently on national TV, including "ABC Nightline", "The Jim Lerher NewsHour", "The Charlie Rose Show", "The Oprah Winfrey Show", "Dateline", "The International Hour" (CNN) and "Talkback" (CNN)

Has lived in sub-Saharan Africa

I feel like an underachiever.

Two things stand out in that CV: 1) She knows what she is talking about. 2) With all the radio and TV experience, that probably wasn't stage-fright that was making her voice shake and crack early on in the call.

ebola curve in time for 1995, 2000 outbreaks

the whole curve lasted only 10 weeks from 0 cases a week to 0 cases ie the rising curve the peak and the going down.
while the current outbreak is 5 months on and the curve is still rising.
obviously the current curve of compound of different strains and different starting points, it is artificial.
current time curve

Here is an interesting fact that is ripe to fuel speculation:

On August 22–23, 2013, agencies within the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) sponsored the Filovirus Medical Countermeasures (MCMs) Workshop as an extension of the activities of the Filovirus Animal Non-clinical Group (FANG). The FANG is a federally-recognized multi-Agency group established in 2011 to coordinate and facilitate U.S. government (USG) efforts to develop filovirus MCMs. The workshop brought together government, academic and industry experts to consider the needs for filovirus MCMs and evaluate the status of the product development pipeline. This report summarizes speaker presentations and highlights progress and challenges remaining in the field.

Meeting Report

Challenges, Progress, and Opportunities: Proceedings of the Filovirus Medical Countermeasures Workshop

So, there's a symposium and a few months later an outbreak?

And they named this group FANG?!

Really?

but what is the product and the product pipeline.
green soylent

The bodily fluids transmission keeps buggin me. The WHO mentioned this Ebola situation can end up being an International problem. I mentioned air travel and TSA relevant to transmission. Ever see those videos of TSA agents not only groping groins with filthy gloves but the ones where they are actually examining urine bags and colostomy bags of sick cancer folks...they have even taken the tubing apart relevant to some of these and examined same and not even connected them again or ruined them altogether. Vids of them handling dirty diapers and even groping down into adult underpants areas....talk about germs and bodily fluid contact and such. Besides open borders, and air flight, TSA can be a part of the problem if there turns out to be one of that magnitude.

Viruses can change/mutate. A vaccine for such would be about the same as flu vaccine situation...every flu season they "guess" and give a shot for the one they hope is for the right one. There is more than one kind of Ebola. One vaccine cannot possibly cover all. If it changes or is such a new/novel one, that could be very problematic....if weaponized, even more so. I hope this all blows over but we'll have to wait and see I guess...for 21 days at least and maybe longer, depending on how many bodies pile up and how many new cases emerge.

viruses dont mutate easy or in a short period of time. they can only mutate in laboratories copy/cut/paste.

The Ebola is a,slow or even stable virus in that it doesn't live long enough to really mutate. It kills its host in many instances which is sad but in the big picture it's good in that mutations have not been noted in the known strains of the disease. . reply to: shrevegal

That not true either. In the case of flu viruses mutations occur in nature all the time. Flu although a dangerous disease for the very old or the very young does not usually kill its host. Every time it migrates to new cells is an opportunity for mutation. That's the reason new vaccines are needed.every flu season. The vaccine is not wearing off the virus has mutated. It was the rapid nature of mutation in the virus which changed the flu into a killer of young adults that made the Spanish flu in the early twentieth century so bad. The same characteristic also allowed the virus to mutate again thereby ending the pandemic. a reply to: reletomp

That's simply jumping to conclusions. a reply to: reletomp

mutating is a rare probability. the probability increases near radioactive source or virus living in pig farms, etc.
There are no big farms in the jungle in the triangle of death bordering the three affected countries.

An epidemic is always traced back to a one individual. that individual in ebola case here might be biten by a monkey or a bat.
so the launching point is a rare accident where a human is bitten by anINFECTED RABID animal. this does not happen often.

In this ebola there are multiple launching points because the curve for the outbreak is not materializing. compare the two curves of 2000 and 1995. the curve completed in 10 weeks then. Now it is still in the rising curve even after few months, because the current curve is a combined of multiple curves.
and also mutiple first cases (there should be only one first case because it does not happen often, extremely low mathematical probability,)
the ebola could also be of multiple strains together and that does not happen in nature.
in 2000 and 1995 the incubation periods are close to each other. now it ranges from 2 days to 23 days, why??

in 1995 it was 8 days for all infected, no range .
in 2000 it was also static at one number 12 days.
now all kinds of incubation periods from 2 days to 23 days. the current curve is multiple curves and some curves are happeneing a second and a third time,. always the 2 time is several folds the first time.

I tried having a quick look but will put the link anyways in case anybody hasn't seen it.

Witnesses testified at a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing on the threat of the ebola virus.

www.c-span.org.../hearing-ebola-outbreak-africa

The real straight talkers to me come at the 1hr 40ish stage.

originally posted by: sueloujo
I tried having a quick look but will put the link anyways in case anybody hasn't seen it.

Witnesses testified at a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing on the threat of the ebola virus.

www.c-span.org.../hearing-ebola-outbreak-africa

The real straight talkers to me come at the 1hr 40ish stage.

I've seen it. and I was surprised that cdc director resume so unrelated to epidemics considering CDC means Centers for Diseases Control which is mainly pathogenic diseases that act epidemics or endemics.
but his all experience is about tobacco cessation education?
and the second surprise that the non physician at the end was the most informative,
why would doctors are less informative.

a reply to: reletomp

I was surprised that cdc director resume so unrelated to epidemics ... all experience is about tobacco cessation education?

That really ticked me off. The 'politicians' numbed the audience ... and then they got up and frikkin' left. They wanted no part of being placed in a position of responsibility.

Government is going to ignore this and hope it burns out on its own.

Not good for us.

the two doctors dufus garsia and draku friedman just talked about nonsense like gear and stuf, and the fried was like very optimistic. like living in parallel reality.
dufus was healthy like a mule as he was immunized for every thing on the planet! seemed not worried too.

originally posted by: reletomp
mutating is a rare probability. the probability increases near radioactive source or virus living in pig farms, etc.
There are no big farms in the jungle in the triangle of death bordering the three affected countries.

An epidemic is always traced back to a one individual. that individual in ebola case here might be biten by a monkey or a bat.
so the launching point is a rare accident where a human is bitten by anINFECTED RABID animal. this does not happen often.

In this ebola there are multiple launching points because the curve for the outbreak is not materializing. compare the two curves of 2000 and 1995. the curve completed in 10 weeks then. Now it is still in the rising curve even after few months, because the current curve is a combined of multiple curves.
and also mutiple first cases (there should be only one first case because it does not happen often, extremely low mathematical probability,)
the ebola could also be of multiple strains together and that does not happen in nature.
in 2000 and 1995 the incubation periods are close to each other. now it ranges from 2 days to 23 days, why??

in 1995 it was 8 days for all infected, no range .
in 2000 it was also static at one number 12 days.
now all kinds of incubation periods from 2 days to 23 days. the current curve is multiple curves and some curves are happeneing a second and a third time,. always the 2 time is several folds the first time.

Looks like we are back to "pig" again and no radio active sources and pig farms dont to my knowalge increase a viruses mutation rate, source?
Wild claims need sources.

Also why are we talking rabbies now?

ebola virus mutate in pigs

viruses mutate in pigs

originally posted by: reletomp
ebola virus mutate in pigs

viruses mutate in pigs

It only says that Ebola Reston COULD mutate not that it has.

And yes Viruses do mutate in pigs but they also mutate elsewhere too it not a pig only phenomena.

Another adticle in the Hindustan Times with the same verbiage:

The Dwarka resident who arrived from Ghana on a flight on July 20 in which a passenger tested positive for Ebola and his two housemates are under surveillance for symptoms for three weeks after arrival.

Delhi's Ebola helpline gets 200 calls in two days

I still have yet to receive a reply to my email I sent t the author of the original story and I don't think I will.

Their quarantine or observation period is nearly over then it's already been 21 days. If their asymptomatic still I'd say they are in the clear. reply to: jadedANDcynical

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

You're not getting the point I'm making. That's fine that the person they are watching is asymptomatic but what about the person who tested positive that was on that flight?