Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

a reply to: loam

it is just pure impossibility that suyer got infected after he gave good bye to his sister. he at least kissed her on her forehead after she died . the sick ins most contagious in the first hour after death more than any time before that.

it is unlikely he went on to work on patients after his sister death too. for the grief.

dr brisbane was not the docxtor who treated him. Nigerian authorities does not not allow just any doctor to practice medicine on the spot with prior autherization which takes months.
THERE WAS another doctor a nigerian who was affiliated with the airport and the seven nurses.

why can they afford 7 nurses but no docotr but a passenger doctor?

in all our goose chase we are trying to calculate a sure incubation period which will after caslculating its time starting with the peak of the current slope which i believe is peaking or just peaked. Only after the period will start seeing the rise of the other slope in the future which will be multinational.
If they have canceled all flights starting 2 days ago then no spread outside that area will happen.

the other reason to calculate the incubation period to see if its short then its whammy , if it is long then that is relatively much better.
The usual incubation period is 8 to 10 days, so 8 will be bad and 10 will be good.

I dont understand the international community are still unable to had calculated the incubation period even though the epidemic started in March??
Obviously every body is crying wolf.

they just playing stupid on us.

obviously all of them know together what the deal or what happened really.
but now they playing actors in a theatre play.

I dont even trust the cry wolf samaritan purse man.

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: reletomp

It is guaranteed that the donated blood so little will save the life of the patient (saving it for good never to get sick again and becoming another survivor)

Rubbish there is no guaranteed treatment for Ebola. Yes they have given blood from survivors but there no data on how effective that is and a lot still go on to die.

so how did dr bently survive?

the ZMAX med can not possibly save an ebola because it was not designed for ebola.
if that medicine was indeed designed for ebola then that means they already knew the antibodies three years ago or more??
then why did not they made lots of it.
why just the company made 3 ampules only.

the med have nothing to do with their survival.
it was only the blood

originally posted by: reletomp

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: reletomp

It is guaranteed that the donated blood so little will save the life of the patient (saving it for good never to get sick again and becoming another survivor)

Rubbish there is no guaranteed treatment for Ebola. Yes they have given blood from survivors but there no data on how effective that is and a lot still go on to die.

so how did dr bently survive?

the ZMAX med can not possibly save an ebola because it was not designed for ebola.
if that medicine was indeed designed for ebola then that means they already knew the antibodies three years ago or more??
then why did not they made lots of it.
why just the company made 3 ampules only.

the med have nothing to do with their survival.
it was only the blood

Source?

Sorry but between 50-40% of Ebola patients this outbreak survive anyway. So at the moment there no firm data that Zmap or blood transfusions from infected patients are what saved that doctor.

originally posted by: reletomp
then why did not they made lots of it.
why just the company made 3 ampules only.

No because R&D does not work like that, the company were not expecting there drug to go into trials. There was no large scale manufacturing process set up. Large scale processes are not set up even in the largest company's until a method is proven sound and when that does happen its takes months to set up a production line. That is in the biggest company's, for this small one the problems are much higher. You cant just create serum out of thin air.

if they already knew the antibodies several years ago why did they not harvest similar antibodies from Horse serum. it will be much cheaper.
a one horse in Bulgaria have been making hundred of thousand of Dipheteria antibodies, that saved the lived of tens of thousand of children who got dephiteria is spite of being vaccinated or because they were not vaccinated.
the only cost here is the price of the horse and the price of the grass for forty years to a lone horse.

The ZMax medicine is made through implanting the antibody (3 antibodies) into a Tobacco plant (the Plant kingdom with its Pectin).
It is very possible Dr Bently will grow pectin like Morganel disease or even worse growing tobacow leaves , or pectin threads cutting through his internal organ like needles.

Any way then what really saved the two Americans considering the mortality rate is 80-90%.
the current counting of cases in those countries does not include the people who were never reported to the morge .
so the mortality rate stand at 80% or more.

so what is the probability that two americans survived the disease of 80% mortality rate and coincidently they were also at the same time period and another conincidently in the same place???

it is an impossible probability.
hence either the ZMAX saved them or the blood. choose?

originally posted by: reletomp
if they already knew the antibodies several years ago why did they not harvest similar antibodies from Horse serum. it will be much cheaper.
a one horse in Bulgaria have been making hundred of thousand of Dipheteria antibodies, that saved the lived of tens of thousand of children who got dephiteria is spite of being vaccinated or because they were not vaccinated.
the only cost here is the price of the horse and the price of the grass for forty years to a lone horse.

Not sure what horses have to do with this?

Did you study Horse along with pig at med school too? (yes I worked out who you are)


No idea why you are blabbering on about Diphtheria either as it has nothing to do with Ebola! Hell Diphtheria is caused by Bacteria!

originally posted by: reletomp
The ZMax medicine is made through implanting the antibody (3 antibodies) into a Tobacco plant (the Plant kingdom with its Pectin).
It is very possible Dr Bently will grow pectin like Morganel disease or even worse growing tobacow leaves , or pectin threads cutting through his internal organ like needles.

What the hell you on about?

originally posted by: reletomp
Any way then what really saved the two Americans considering the mortality rate is 80-90%.

No this outbreak stands around 55%

source

originally posted by: reletomp
the current counting of cases in those countries does not include the people who were never reported to the morge .

Source?

55% is the rate in the hospitals so far. So 45% who report to the hospital survive. The 2 Americans were in the hospital so they have a 45% chance even with out the serum.

originally posted by: reletomp
so the mortality rate stand at 80% or more.

Speculation

originally posted by: reletomp
so what is the probability that two Americans survived the disease of 80% mortality rate

55%

And even if it was 80% that's is still a 20% probability of Survival! That is a long way off to confirm if current experimental treatments work! We need more than 2 people as they could have been in that chance 20% (or in this case 45%).

originally posted by: reletomp
hence either the ZMAX saved them or the blood. choose?

Could be one, the other, both or neither at this point.

Until there is more data to go on anyone with medical or scientific background cant choose.

originally posted by: loam
SUPER-DUPER SPECULATION: When we saw Brantly transported to Emory, that was not him. He was either transported at another time, by other means, or to another place.

Here.

Thanks for the super duper, Loam. I would like to think that with
the fact the jet's range at anything but easy-listening throttle was poor:
and it having no feeding tube it HAD to refuel somewhere.. like Bangor(?)
Right out of Pet Sematary... but still somehow plausible.

But I don't think on the other hand anybody wanted to ID him with a
closeup under the circumstances. SPEC: If he's in Detrick or somewhere
else now there's a reason: and few of us are on the need-to-know list.

MY super-duper is the strong possibility this is some artificially jacked
Zaire that's going dry airborne since it left W.Africa, and we should do
a lot of stretching exercises to get ready to pucker deep.

We use pectin to make jelly and jams. By your reckoning every time a kid here has a peanut butter and jelly sandwich their lives are at risk but pb&j is the favorite lunch choice for many kids here. I know where I'm not going to be getting my information on Ebola or anything else. reply to: reletomp

Why is it impossible that Sawyer got infected after his sister died? I already told you the incubation is as few as two days. It can be up to twenty two days but in most cases it's much shorter. . I don't imagine that where or when he got it is very important. What will prove important was where he was when he became contagious , when did his symptoms first show up.

a reply to: reletomp

What do you mean was not made for Ebola?
I thought it was an experimental drug just being developed but certainly developed to treat Ebola. a reply to: reletomp

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: reletomp
if they already knew the antibodies several years ago why did they not harvest similar antibodies from Horse serum. it will be much cheaper.
a one horse in Bulgaria have been making hundred of thousand of Dipheteria antibodies, that saved the lived of tens of thousand of children who got dephiteria is spite of being vaccinated or because they were not vaccinated.
the only cost here is the price of the horse and the price of the grass for forty years to a lone horse.

Not sure what horse have to do with this?

originally posted by: reletomp
The ZMax medicine is made through implanting the antibody (3 antibodies) into a Tobacco plant (the Plant kingdom with its Pectin).
It is very possible Dr Bently will grow pectin like Morganel disease or even worse growing tobacow leaves , or pectin threads cutting through his internal organ like needles.

What the hell you on about?

originally posted by: reletomp
Any way then what really saved the two Americans considering the mortality rate is 80-90%.

No this outbreak stands around 55%

source

originally posted by: reletomp
the current counting of cases in those countries does not include the people who were never reported to the morge .

Source?

55% is the rate in the hospitals so far. So 45% who report to the hospital survive. The 2 Americans were in the hospital so they have a 45% chance with the serum.

originally posted by: reletomp
so the mortality rate stand at 80% or more.

Speculation

originally posted by: reletomp
so what is the probability that two Americans survived the disease of 80% mortality rate

55%

And even if it was 80% that's is still a 20% probability of Survival! That is a long way off to confirm if current experimental treatments work! We need more than 2 people as they could have been in that chance 20% (or in this case 45%).

originally posted by: reletomp
hence either the ZMAX saved them or the blood. choose?

Could be one, the other, both or neither at this point.

Until there is more data to go on anyone with medical or scientific background cant choice.

Well if the market is any indication I'd say they are betting on the Monsanto flavored cure here. TKMR is up 20% while Zmapp is seesawing +/-

I am sure much of that is based off of Obama's comment about the experimental drug not being ready for human consumption. They need more analysis.

a reply to: Rosinitiate

The serum does look promising. But it needs to tested on more than just 2 people.

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: reletomp
if they already knew the antibodies several years ago why did they not harvest similar antibodies from Horse serum. it will be much cheaper.
a one horse in Bulgaria have been making hundred of thousand of Dipheteria antibodies, that saved the lived of tens of thousand of children who got dephiteria is spite of being vaccinated or because they were not vaccinated.
the only cost here is the price of the horse and the price of the grass for forty years to a lone horse.

Not sure what horses have to do with this?

Did you study Horse along with pig at med school too? (yes I worked out who you are)

originally posted by: reletomp
The ZMax medicine is made through implanting the antibody (3 antibodies) into a Tobacco plant (the Plant kingdom with its Pectin).
It is very possible Dr Bently will grow pectin like Morganel disease or even worse growing tobacow leaves , or pectin threads cutting through his internal organ like needles.

What the hell you on about?

originally posted by: reletomp
Any way then what really saved the two Americans considering the mortality rate is 80-90%.

No this outbreak stands around 55%

source

originally posted by: reletomp
the current counting of cases in those countries does not include the people who were never reported to the morge .

Source?

55% is the rate in the hospitals so far. So 45% who report to the hospital survive. The 2 Americans were in the hospital so they have a 45% chance even with out the serum.

originally posted by: reletomp
so the mortality rate stand at 80% or more.

Speculation

originally posted by: reletomp
so what is the probability that two Americans survived the disease of 80% mortality rate

55%

And even if it was 80% that's is still a 20% probability of Survival! That is a long way off to confirm if current experimental treatments work! We need more than 2 people as they could have been in that chance 20% (or in this case 45%).

originally posted by: reletomp
hence either the ZMAX saved them or the blood. choose?

Could be one, the other, both or neither at this point.

Until there is more data to go on anyone with medical or scientific background cant choice.

As usual, Ewok is correct. An n value of two is not statistically significant. Encouraging if both survive, but not enough subjects to be able to deduce anything as of yet.

Simply put, the greater the number the test subjects, the lesser the likelihood that the results are due to chance.

originally posted by: crazyewok
a reply to: Rosinitiate

The serum does look promising. But it needs to tested on more than just 2 people.

So how soon can these tests be performed? Not in a typical scenario but during a crisis. As Obama stated yesterday, although it's not ready they will be looking to fast track it. (paraphrasing).

Another words, what are the chances Zmapp would be ready in time? Or should the focus be on standard care (better conditions) and perhaps coupled with the TKMR product?

originally posted by: paxnatus
I don't know if ya'll have seen this yet but this raises some real questions and i think all the medical professionals can back me up on this.....

Here in the U.S.: Different confusion. Different questions. for example, if Ebola is not airborne, why the extraordinary precautions for Dr. Brantley and Ms. Whitebol?

It turns out standard precautions may suffice.

"We're pretty confident that any large hospital could handle an Ebola case using traditional isolation rooms with negative pressure room and with traditional, Stephan Monroe, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

Droplet and respiratory precautions.

And while I suited up in multiple layers when I was in Guinea earlier this year, the CDC says a mask, goggles to protect eyes or a face shield to protect the face, a protective gown to prevent bodily fluids from covering clothes and arms and gloves can provide protection for most situations.

The WHO is currently meeting and could announce a public health emergency on Friday - that would add even more urgency at the CDC's nerve center here in Atlanta.

ktiv.com

Now not to bring up the old argument between airborne and droplet transmission but this. In the medical profession they are 3 basic different types of Isolation....Universal precautions = gloves .Contact precautions = gloves, and gown..If you are going to come into contact with body fluids or during more involved wound care....Respiratory = gloves, gown and mask. For your patients who are most contagious but basically for pathogens spread through the air.....Not just droplet but airborne....If we remember back to to 2009 at the hyped up scare over H1N1 you may remember heaaing wear masks.....but viral particles will seep through a standard isolation mask......It would require a respirator type mask and the general healthcare population never ever wear those.

Unlike facemasks, respirators form a tight seal to the face. Respirators typically refer to CDC-certified N95 or higher filtering face pieces (meaning that they filter out 95% of airborne particles). They are primarily manufactured for use in construction and industrial jobs that expose workers to dust and small airborne particles.1 In order for respirators to be effective, they must be fitted properly according to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) guidelines.5 Respirators are harder than facemasks to breathe through for extended periods of time and can cause skin irritation. CDC guidelines do not suggest respirators for children or people with facial hair.

CDCresearch

Even though every example of Ebola that infected humans is not airborne, we have one case of Ebola that (thankfully) did not cross over to humans that was--the Reston Variant. Even though Ebola is not airborne, I would suggest that it's only prudent to treat it as if it was because it is better to err on the side of safety with a Cat-4 pathogen.

originally posted by: Rosinitiate

originally posted by: crazyewok
a reply to: Rosinitiate

The serum does look promising. But it needs to tested on more than just 2 people.

So how soon can these tests be performed? Not in a typical scenario but during a crisis. As Obama stated yesterday, although it's not ready they will be looking to fast track it. (paraphrasing).

Another words, what are the chances Zmapp would be ready in time? Or should the focus be on standard care (better conditions) and perhaps coupled with the TKMR product?

It depends I guess how long it takes to make more.

By the sounds of it there were not ready at all for human trials and were still in small scale R&D phases.

To test it out on a large number of people they will have to build a production line to make large quantity's. And as someone who worked on the R&D teams that used to scale stuff like this up, its easier said than done. Not only do you have to assemble the equipment, but you have to train people to uses it, validate it and worse sort out any bugs as on a scale up problems you would not notice in the small scale R&D run start to appear as they get scaled up too. In a multi billion dollar company it could take up to 6 months or a year if it was particularly troublesome process.

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: Rosinitiate

originally posted by: crazyewok
a reply to: Rosinitiate

The serum does look promising. But it needs to tested on more than just 2 people.

So how soon can these tests be performed? Not in a typical scenario but during a crisis. As Obama stated yesterday, although it's not ready they will be looking to fast track it. (paraphrasing).

Another words, what are the chances Zmapp would be ready in time? Or should the focus be on standard care (better conditions) and perhaps coupled with the TKMR product?

To test it out on a large number of people they will have to build a production line to make large quantity's. And as someone who worked on the R&D teams that used to scale stuff like this up, its easier said than done. Not only do you have to assemble the equipment, but you have to train people to uses it, validate it and worse sort out any bugs as on a scale up problems you would not notice in the small scale R&D run start to appear as they get scaled up too. In a multi billion dollar company it could take up to 6 months or a year if it was particularly troublesome process.

That sounds very in line with most projects I was a part of moving from pilot to actual. So if a company had the assistance of the WHO, World Bank and the US government (as stated on the LIVE CSPAN conference), could that 6 months, assuming they are comfortable moving from animal to human, be completed within a month?

a reply to: NavyDoc

Exactly to the last sentence frag, Doc.. and for a repeat,
err toward safety with a Cat-4 pathogen.
In total disregard of the precautions taken after the
monster left the barn, why were even the most basic
isolation protocols ignored-- even to the point of
allowing international air travel to continue out of
"the barn" that's still on fire? Quite telling, and I've
heard already from you how sloppy that looks. Now
it looks like WHO's finally got the memo; and only after
we've got fires popping up almost everywhere else.
Where's that uncharted island with the dancing crabs?
I need a liberty

originally posted by: Rosinitiate
[
That sounds very in line with most projects I was a part of moving from pilot to actual. So if a company had the assistance of the WHO, World Bank and the US government (as stated on the LIVE CSPAN conference), could that 6 months, assuming they are comfortable moving from animal to human, be completed within a month?

I dont know.

But there is only so far that throwing money at it will get you.

You still have the trouble shooting and validation not to mention that certain parts will need to be custom made and as its a small company then those parts will likely have to be shipped in.

IF
They can set something up without problems and the validation goes smoothly (and I have never seen that happen) then maybe but as I said on scale up there are always problems.

Not to mention you still have to run the process and culturing or in this case growing enough antibody's and then extracting them will take time too.

a reply to: derfreebie
I share in this super duper speculation - there are just a few things not adding up to me, and my spidey senses are tingling. Or maybe thats the caffiene. Either way.

This is on Forbes today (14hrs ago):

However, Tekmira just announced today that the FDA verbally confirmed the modification of the trials’ status to a “partial hold,” thereby allowing the drug to be used in people infected with Ebola.

And a second in clinical:

The second drug is a different type modified RNA molecule, AVI-7537, from Sarepta Therapeutics. AVI-7537 is directed against one of the three Ebolavirus genes (VP24) targeted by Tekmira’s drug. But its chemistry platform, called PMOplus, is distinctly different from that of Tekmira’s TKM-Ebola. AVI-7537 also works via a different mechanism to block the viral protein from being made.

So it looks like a green light with the partial hold.

FDA Moves On Tekmira's Ebola Drug While Sarepta's Sits Unused