Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

There's been fewer than two thousand cases not a high enough percentage of the population for it to mutate. It doesnt mutate quickly because the outbreaks are short lived. As far as localization that's still a very tiny part of the planet. It's all west Africa and just a small part of west Africa. Area of Ginnea 94926 sq mi. Liberia 43000 sq mi, Seirria Leon 27699, Nigeria 356,669 sq mi. Total square miles 522924. A bit more than 0.1% of the planet. But you want to be scared be scared. You want to exaggerate everything to a dooms day level have at it. But Next month you'll be running from another monster and the month after that and the month after that.
jadedANDcynical

13 cases in Nigeria now?

Great resource for other data as well

Source

the avalanche started in nigeria.
the next curve will start after 1-2 weeks where ever infected air travelers ended their travel

The French news this morning is saying several cases of Ebola have been found in France.

French article

Though this article says "un protocole strict est prévu et les hôpitaux français sont équipés pour traiter ce type de maladie."
"A strict protocol has been set up and the french hospitals are equipped for treating this type of disease" the television news showed only one hospital, in Marseille, that has set up a quarantined unit with separate entry, and claimed it is the only one in France with that possibility.

AS I've mentioned before; I work in a french hospital, having direct contact with material that can be infected with bodily fluids, and not one word has ever been said to us, my questioning it was laughed at. No precautions (masks, for example) are being carried out at all. I wouldn't worry so much about a potential epidemic here if I wasn't aware of that.


This is first we've heard of any cases here and I don't know if it is true. But the french media does try to downplay anything that could strike fear or panic in the people, (the contrary of the US media) so I wouldn't be surprised in the least if there has already been cases not exposed in the media until now.

as per article 2012 cutler au, human human contact (transportation) increase contaigen.

staying home for all is the best solution it will kill the epidemic in just 2 weeks (two weeks on non travel no cars no taxis no buses no work for two weeks)

www.idpjournal.com...

Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world

similarly to ebola, highly pathogenic avian flue "HPAI seems less common in small than in large flocks of chickens, for which primary transmission is respiratory.The viral trade-off hypothesis, developed by Ewald and others [102], speculates that evolutionary forces in most ecological situations are likely to drive pathogens, which trade off rapid host lethality in exchange for relatively prolonged host longevity. Over time, this is likely to favour greater opportunities for pathogenic reproduction. Extremely rapid host mortality is likely to result in a self-limiting epidemic, especially for pathogens which are not infectious until hosts are symptomatic. This is not the case for influenza, which as mentioned can be effectively transmitted when symptoms are either minor or have not appeared.

In industrial farms, however, sometimes called Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs), evolutionary factors may alter this calculus [83,104]. If there is a very large number of immunologically naive hosts (e.g., birds) that can be infected, and which are in close proximity, then a pathogen that causes rapid infection may be favoured, even if it causes death – as long as there are sufficient other vulnerable hosts which can, in turn, be infected before the original host dies. That is, the evolutionary penalty for pathogens that kill rapidly is lesser, even if they kill the host.

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

I know you're smarter than that, please don't tell me you're going try to make the geographic area significant:

29% of Earth is land mass. Of that 29% humans occupy less than 1% of that area. Of the remaining 28% about 40% is pure wilderness. 14% is true desert and 15% has desert like characteristics. 9% is Antarctica. Most of the remaining 22% are agricultural areas. There may be other areas with a human footprint of some kind.

We already only occupy a fraction of a percent of the planet in toto what's different is how far its gotten cimpared to prior outbreaks.

Yes, I am afraid.

No, I am not mongerng fear.

There is a difference and I trust you to be intelligent enough to see that difference.

I'll be happy to author a thread when this outbreak is contained and eat as much crow as you wish to dish, but until such a time I will continue to post in the manner I have.

Btw, I saw what you removed from the post to which I am responding, thats what gives me hope that you will be able to see that I have done my best to interpret what those who have authored what I am quoting from of the peer-reviewed research in the topic of ebola.

If you have specific points to make against what I have posted, please make them and link equally recongnized research supporting your stance.

I don't have any formal training in anything other than general studies feom high school, I don't even have a diploma.

What I do have is an ability to read and comprehend, and if I've misinterpreted any thing, I will be more than happy to admit my mistake.



Following up:

A pregnant woman who went for her usual check up at the First Consultant Hospital Obalande – same hospital that Patrick Sawyer was admitted – tested positive of the virus on Friday. She got infected after being treated by the same nurse, Obi Justina Ejelonu, who attended to the Liberian carrier, Patrick Sawyer.

Recall that two nurses came in direct contact with Mr. Sawyer and one of them died last week – the other nurse, Justina is still alive. The pregnant woman has since been quarantined at the mainland hospital where there is an isolation emergency centre for Ebola virus victims.

source

If she (the infected nurse) was showing symptoms, how is it that she was able to perform her duties?

How many other people did she infect?

Something is going on.

I was pointing that out to the person who said it was not localized. It is still localized until there is a case outside the hot zone that was never in the hot zone. By that I mean someone infected that never stepped foot in Africa. So far there have not been any. Every single case originated in Africa. Now the cases in Nigeria could be considered secondary since this outbreak started in Ginnea Liberia and Serria Leon and was transported by the foolish Patrick Sawyer. Still it's in Africa not far from the hub. If cases start on other continents then I will concede that it is no longer local. There have been scares on every continent with people who have traveled to the hot zone. This does need to stop. There needs to be a world wide ban on travel out of Africa for three weeks. Anyone who needs to leave should be quarantined for three weeks before being allowed to travel. Economics probably won't support such a harsh measure but it's whats needed to stop this. Let's see if governments are smart enough to recognize this. Of course people could travel overland to northern Africa and leave through Egypt. But if they suspect themselves to be infected they should self regulate to protect others.
I have no doubts of our ability outside Africa to contain this but my hope is that those systems won't be tested. reply to: jadedANDcynical

As to the part I removed I had just heard moments before that my husband's brother had passed away and I wasn't thinking straight. I removed it after reading the post when it appeared on the board and realized it was misdirected anger. Sorry. a reply to: jadedANDcynical

The source for the pregnant woman story is a blog. That nurse if she even exists would have had to be showing symptoms in order to infect anyone. She would not have been working she would have been too sick. Also if she'd been in contact with Patrick Stewart she would have been quarantined like everyone else whom he was in contact with at the hospital. The hospital would not open themselves to that kind of liability and as care givers would never have taken such a risk.


n reply to: jadedANDcynical

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

Think nothing of it. I am saddened to hear of your loss and hope that you and your family are able to find consolation together.

As to the outbreak no longer being localized:

Yes, we can see that one patient (Sawyer) in Nigeria has turned into 10; this gives us a very good indication that the R0 of 2·7 is valid and needa to be considered; each infected patient becomes 2-7 more:

Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walsh et al., 2005), by which time we were fairly equipped to deal with it in remote low population density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa

We are about to be getting a demonstration of qhther or not this can be contained within a large city.



(will edit further in a moment, regatding the blog post, I'm at work and have to post as time permits)

I searched and searched for any cases that resulted from the team that treated Stewart and they all said that they were quarantined as soon as it was known that Stewart had Ebola. There is a second nurse that has been confirmed to have it. She treated Stewart and has been in quarantine since then. I'm seriously doubting the pregnant woman story but will keep looking for it.


Thank you for your condolences. a reply to: jadedANDcynical

So where are all the Ebola cases in Atlanta that were supposedly going to be popping up all over the place due to the fact that the two Ebola patients were transferred there?

Anyone?

Looking at the medical staff that's either infected or dead, I feel their protective equipment is not used right, reused or not good at containing. They breathe through a respirator, right? What if that mask can't filter the virus?

I read this today:

"The Ebola drug given to two Americans and a Spanish priest has been sent to treat infected doctors in two West African countries, and the supply of the medicine is now gone, its manufacturer said. "

Follow the money trail.

Source: www.bloomberg.com...

a reply to: kruphix

I think that with up to a 22 day incubation period we will be seeing cases pop up soon, if it's in the USA. I do think if it's here they are trying to keep it under wraps for as long as possible to avoid a massive panic, but if it is truly here, it will be public knowledge soon. Facebook and twitter will explode with news if there is one person in the USA truly sick with this virus.

Just a notice that I've updated Charts 1 & 2 on the Charts thread with the latest data from WHO. That data covered through August 9, 2014 but was published on August 11, 2014:

Charts

originally posted by: AutumnWitch657
I searched and searched for any cases that resulted from the team that treated Stewart and they all said that they were quarantined as soon as it was known that Stewart had Ebola. There is a second nurse that has been confirmed to have it. She treated Stewart and has been in quarantine since then. I'm seriously doubting the pregnant woman story but will keep looking for it.


Thank you for your condolences. a reply to: jadedANDcynical

I don't mean to sound rude (it my have been an accident). But I've seen you post serveral times about Patric Stewart. The man who brought the virus to Nigreia was named Patric Sawyer. That may be part of the reason you're having trouble finding information related to his case.
Or, maybe you're an American Dad fan who was simply mixing up the two names here.

The two that were transferred to Atlanta were infected because a local volunteer or hospital worker contaminated their gear. The doctor a d nurse in Nigeria got it before they knew that Patrick Stewart had Ebola. He also tested positive for malaria which has common symptoms but doesn't usually kill otherwise healthy people. Malaria is not Transmitted person to person. It is contracted through mosquito bites.
Ebola is not airborne so it doesn't matter about the mask. It's a big germ LOL. The masks are to protect from flying spit in a cough or splashes of blood or vomit and such. reply to: negue

a reply to: MDpvc
That's me not the member you're replying to. My bad. You are correct. Patrick Stewart Star Trek the Next Generation. LOL.
Oh and I'm an American Mom.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Past the 4hour limit to edit.

Anyway, I know its an unknown blog so that's why I posted it here in the conjecture thread. I would give it less credence if the ads were for pepper things and other related items however it seems to be a genuine blog that supports itself with typical adware.

There are other bits out there though:

Gentlemen, I come to you with my head bowed in tears and agony.
Last December as we (Igboville/ONF) were organizing Igboville Enyimba free medical services for Aba, one young nurse whose picture is attached, Obi Justina Ejelonu, volunteered and joined us to make it a success. She was previously working at Otunba tunwase national pediatric centre Ijebu Ode in Ogun state and a graduate of Ebonyi State University Abakaliki. Earlier this year, she relocated to Lagos to work at First Consultant Hospital Obalande.

EBOLA: Medical staff who treated Patrick Sawyer must not be left to die.

This is the organization the nurse worked for.