Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Thanks, I have updated the charts with what seems to be the latest 'official' data available, which includes the new case and the new death in Mali and the new case in New York from late last week.

Updated Ebola charts

a reply to: ikonoklast

Hi ,

I am not sure Iam understanding this right but is the cases not 10414? You are stating it is over 11000. I have not seen an update on who with that number of cases ?

I am probably missing something

armakirais

twitter.com...

WHO updates the numbers to 13703 reported cases. That's a significant jump. No breakdown on cases per region though.

a reply to: armakirais

I think you might have missed this explanation in my post of the latest charts:

...WHO released an update on October 25, 2014. But the numbers in their update are almost unusable for charting purposes because of inconsistent data. They only had data through October 18 for Liberia, October 21 for Guinea, and October 22 for Sierra Leone.

To overcome this issue, I have used the WHO data through those dates and then added case data through October 24 and death data through October 21 from national situation reports from affected countries. The reason the death data only goes through the 21st is that Liberia suddenly greatly reduced their reported deaths beginning on October 22, and I think we should wait and see whether WHO also does in their next update. Hopefully WHO's next update will have more consistent data.

This kind of highlights some of the issues and questions that arise as I update the charts.

WHO gets the numbers for their updates from the Ministries of Health of the affected countries. But sometimes WHO has not received one or more days' worth of updates from one or more countries at the time they release their updates. In such cases, WHO has noted that their data covered through some date for certain countries but through a different date for one or more countries.

Usually the difference has been only a day or so, which amounted to an under-count of about 100 cases or less. That's not a huge difference when the cumulative case count is up to around 10,000 or more, about 1% or less. But in the WHO update on October 25, 2014, they stated:

A total of 10 141 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal) up to the end of 23 October...

A total of 10 114 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD... have been reported up to the end of 18 October 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Liberia, 21 October by the Ministry of Health of Guinea, and 22 October by the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone...

That means WHO was missing 5 days of data from Liberia, 2 days of data for Guinea, and 1 day of data for Sierra Leone at the time they compiled their update. Since then, the Ministries of Health for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have all released additional situation reports.

You can see how this affects things in the table below. Green cells represent data from WHO, and this data also matched data from the Ministries of Health and/or media reports for the same dates. Yellow cells represent data in situation reports from the Ministries of Health which WHO did not report or had not yet received data.



I try to use WHO data to the greatest extent possible, but I also download and compare situation reports from the Ministries of Health for Guinea, Liberia, and Guinea. Usually the data matches either exactly or is extremely close. But in the latest WHO update, they noted they were missing up to 5 days of updates. That data later came out and there were an additional 1754 cases reported by the Ministries of Health through October 24, 2014.

That's 17.3% more cases reported through October 24th than reported by WHO through October 23rd, a pretty significant difference. Since WHO had themselves indicated there was a lot of missing data, I thought it would be best to include the data reported since WHO's update. That keeps the charts as accurate as possible with current reported data.

As joho99 noted, there was a large increase in reported cases in Liberia. This is not surprising. WHO has been saying that they believed cases in Liberia were much higher than reported because Liberia could not keep up with testing, tracking, and reporting all cases. The large overnight increase probably represents a correction more than a very sudden increase. This is supported by the fact that Liberia's situation report on October 22, 2014 indicated 30 new cases, but the cumulative cases count increased by 1394!

The death count from Liberia has exactly the opposite issue. On October 22, 2014, the death count reported by Liberia went down by 602, a 21.7% decrease! That may also be a correction [unless it ties in with media reports of the dead coming back to 'life' as zombies! ), but it would seem to be extremely unlikely based on everything known about fatality rate as well as the many WHO statements and media reports about under-reporting in Liberia. Since that 'correction' seems highly unexpected and unlikely, I only updated death counts on the charts through October 21st. I want to see what WHO reports in their next report for both case and death counts, especially for death counts in Liberia.

Here are links where the situation reports from the most heavily affected countries can be downloaded.

Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

Liberia Situation Reports

Sierra Leone Situation Reports

originally posted by: robchaos
twitter.com...

WHO updates the numbers to 13703 reported cases. That's a significant jump. No breakdown on cases per region though.

Oh wow... that is a significant jump. Thanks for the info!

I checked and WHO doesn't seem to have posted the new situation report yet, just the tweet, but I will update the charts after the situation report with the full details gets posted.

ThANK YOU ikonoklast for explaining

I just saw the new report from WHO and WOW what a jump !!!!Can't wait to see the new charts

armakirais

a reply to: armakirais

From the BBC News website...

The WHO's Bruce Aylward said it was confident the response to the virus was now gaining the upper hand.

But he warned against any suggestion that the crisis was over.

The WHO later said the number of cases globally had risen more than 3,000 to 13,703 since its last report, but that this was due to reporting reasons.

The number of deaths was put at 4,920, roughly the same as the last report four days ago. All but 10 of the deaths have been in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

WHO released another update yesterday, October 29, 2014. According to WHO (and as robchaos and Rentier noted), through October 27, 2014 (October 25, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

13,703 reported Ebola cases
4,920 reported Ebola deaths

I have updated the charts with the new data.









According to WHO,the CDC, and many charitable medical organizations such as Doctors Without Borders (MSF), it is believed that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures. Most believe that there are at least 2 to 5 times as many cases and deaths. Since it is difficult to know exactly what the actual numbers are, these charts rely on the reported numbers.

The numbers also do not include the Congo, as that is allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Projections are based on the rather extreme possibility of nothing succeeding in slowing and eventually stopping the exponential growth. Hopefully that will not be the case, and efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

a reply to: armakirais

You're welcome! I just posted the updated charts:

Updated Ebola charts

a reply to: ikonoklast

Great to see you back posting OP. I check your thread daily. I can only speak for myself I just want to say thank you again for all the hard work. Also it seems the doubling period dropped back down and the number of cases is still following the charted paths.....This is kinda scary.

a reply to: SubTruth

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback. Yes, still following the original projection lines... for almost 3 months now. It is scary.

I just saw two statements by the Director-General of WHO in an interview with Time magazine that are at least equally scary:

And now, looking back, all of us would say, yes, the scale of the response did not match the scale of the outbreak.

I’ve been asking myself: how much time can I spend on Ebola given that it is going to be a sustained, severe outbreak?

Time magazine: WHO Chief Says Ebola Response ‘Did Not Match’ Scale of the Outbreak

originally posted by: SubTruth
a reply to: ikonoklast

Great to see you back posting OP. I check your thread daily. I can only speak for myself I just want to say thank you again for all the hard work. Also it seems the doubling period dropped back down and the number of cases is still following the charted paths.....This is kinda scary.

Wanted to touch on this real quick, the days doubling chart.

This chart reminds me of puterman's sawtooth stress chart that hr has developed for earthquakes as can be seen toward the bottom of this post, wherein he plots stress build up and then release as it relates to earthquakes.

I am wondering if there is any correlation to the length of time it takes to double and the amount of increase for each time interval. IOW, if it takes longer to double, will there be a larger increase that follows.

Pobably not as this is more likely tied to the difficulties in reporting that are a result of the system being overwhelmed, though it does make for an interesting thought exercise.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Great charts Ikonoklast - thanks for your efforts on this. With this latest figures of 13,703 cases and 4,920 deaths, I understood that the mortality rate was supposed to be around 70% (so 4,920 deaths does not equate) - presume this is an issue of reporting difficulties in Liberia etc?

originally posted by: Rentier
a reply to: ikonoklast

Great charts Ikonoklast - thanks for your efforts on this. With this latest figures of 13,703 cases and 4,920 deaths, I understood that the mortality rate was supposed to be around 70% (so 4,920 deaths does not equate) - presume this is an issue of reporting difficulties in Liberia etc?

You're welcome, thanks for the feedback!

I think there are several reasons why the numbers reported don't equate to the 70% mortality rate, but still some questions, too.

Partly, it's because Ebola cases are doubling about every month, but in fatal cases, it takes about 6-16 days from the start of symptoms to death. As of the October 29th WHO update, that meant it was too soon to know the outcome for about 3512-4802 cases. Looking at reported deaths versus case numbers 6-16 days prior gives a fatality rate of about 50%, give or take a few percentage points.

Liberia's Ministry of Health also drastically reduced the number of reported deaths by 602 overnight between October 21-22, 2014.

WHO also said the 70% fatality rate is for patients where Ebola is clinically confirmed and they know the clinical outcome (death or recovery).

That leaves some questions still, such as:

Why is there still such a large discrepancy in the percentages, especially in countries where the percentage of clinically confirmed cases is high? Is it a lack of records or inability to keep up? Are many leaving treatment facilities prior to a known outcome and not being tracked? Or what?

Your efforts are greatly appreciated. It appears the sunshine and rainbows attempts by some about the situations in West Africa were wishful thinking. Reality checks are coming. The official numbers are way low I fear.

S.Leone Ebola outbreak 'catastrophic': aid group MSF

Ebola has wiped out whole villages in Sierra Leone and may have caused many more deaths than the nearly 5,000 official global toll, a senior coordinator of the medical aid group MSF said Friday.

Rony Zachariah of Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, said after visiting Sierra Leone that the Ebola figures were "under-reported", in an interview with AFP on the sidelines of a medical conference in Barcelona.

"The situation is catastrophic. There are several villages and communities that have been basically wiped out. In one of the villages I went to, there were 40 inhabitants and 39 died," he said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) published revised figures on Friday showing 4,951 people have died of Ebola and there was a total of 13,567 reported cases.

"The WHO says there is a correction factor of 2.5, so maybe it is 2.5 times higher and maybe that is not far from the truth. It could be 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000," said Zachariah.

He stressed that "whole communities have disappeared but many of them are not in the statistics. The situation on the ground is actually much worse."

More here

Again, thank you for your ongoing work. You rock.

WHO released another update today, October 31, 2014. According to WHO, through October 29, 2014 (October 25, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

13,567 reported Ebola cases
4,951 reported Ebola deaths

WHO noted in the latest situation report:

The cases reported are fewer than those reported in the Situation Report of 29 October, due mainly to suspected cases in Guinea being discarded.

It should also be noted that the numbers would almost certainly have been higher if they were not missing 4 days' worth of data from Liberia, the hardest hit country.

I have updated the charts with the new data.









According to WHO,the CDC, and many charitable medical organizations such as Doctors Without Borders (MSF), it is believed that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures. Most believe that there are at least 2 to 5 times as many cases and deaths. Since it is difficult to know exactly what the actual numbers are, these charts rely on the reported numbers.

The numbers also do not include the Congo, as that is allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

originally posted by: DancedWithWolves
Your efforts are greatly appreciated. It appears the sunshine and rainbows attempts by some about the situations in West Africa were wishful thinking. Reality checks are coming. The official numbers are way low I fear.

S.Leone Ebola outbreak 'catastrophic': aid group MSF

Ebola has wiped out whole villages in Sierra Leone and may have caused many more deaths than the nearly 5,000 official global toll, a senior coordinator of the medical aid group MSF said Friday.

Rony Zachariah of Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, said after visiting Sierra Leone that the Ebola figures were "under-reported", in an interview with AFP on the sidelines of a medical conference in Barcelona.

"The situation is catastrophic. There are several villages and communities that have been basically wiped out. In one of the villages I went to, there were 40 inhabitants and 39 died," he said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) published revised figures on Friday showing 4,951 people have died of Ebola and there was a total of 13,567 reported cases.

"The WHO says there is a correction factor of 2.5, so maybe it is 2.5 times higher and maybe that is not far from the truth. It could be 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000," said Zachariah.

He stressed that "whole communities have disappeared but many of them are not in the statistics. The situation on the ground is actually much worse."

More here

Again, thank you for your ongoing work. You rock.

Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciate it! I'm still hoping that somehow things will turn around, but it's certainly looking grim. It must be horrific in the areas that are hit hard.

I've updated the charts with the latest update from WHO that was released today (October 31, 2014):

Latest Ebola chart updates

WHO released another update today, November 5, 2014. According to WHO, through November 2, 2014 (October 31, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

13,042 reported Ebola cases
4,818 reported Ebola deaths

NOTE: Cases and deaths are lower than reported by WHO in their October 29th and 31st updates. Please see additional info below the charts.

I have updated the charts with the new data:









Reported Ebola data is always subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified.

WHO noted in their latest situation report (PDF):

The fewer cases reported this week compared with the Situation Report of 29 October (and 31 October - ikon) is due to a change in the use of data sources. In this report, the cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths... are identical to those presented in situation reports compiled by ministries of health and WHO country offices. Previously, these totals were derived from a combination of patient databases and country situation reports. The revised approach unifies the totals presented in this report with those given in national reports.

Despite this statement, there is a significant difference between the deaths reported by WHO and the deaths reported by the Ministry of Health for Liberia through October 31, 2014, as shown in this table:



In addition, 2 days' worth of data is missing for Liberia. I have used the total number of deaths reported by WHO for Liberia through October 31, 2014.

The numbers also do not include the Congo, as that is allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

These charts rely on the reported numbers, but the charts and projections can only be as accurate as the data they are based on.

Please be aware that there are a number of possible issues with reported data.

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have all stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures. Most believe there are at least 2 to 5 times as many cases and deaths. This seems fairly likely given the reputation of the organizations or people saying this.

2. There have recently been a number of sudden large decreases in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear if this indicates an improvement or an inability to keep up. A sudden improvement seems unlikely, but let's hope.

3. Many countries have clamped down on journalists reporting on Ebola. Liberia has put laws or regulations in place to severely restrict journalists. Sierra Leone just put a journalist in prison who had been reporting on the Ebola epidemic there (and allegedly supporting civil unrest). In the USA, Forbes recently reported:

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

4. There are many different theories or opinions circulating regarding Ebola. Some believe that there is no such thing as Ebola. Some that whatever is currently spreading is not Ebola. Some that there is no outbreak of anything at all. Some that people are purposely being infected with Ebola or something that is being called Ebola. Some that the Ebola epidemic is part of a depopulation plan. I really do not know whether any of these beliefs have merit or not. There are certainly many strange things that go on in the world, so who knows?

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

What do you guys know of this map? Is this reputable?

Ebola Case Map

If this can be trusted, there are many more possible cases being monitored, in the United States, than we have been told.

So long . . . and thanks for all the fish!

Bishop

a reply to: Bishop2199

Thanks, looks like an interesting resource. It looks like someone is crowd-sourcing the data gathering, taking in links to news stories, verifying them, and creating a mashup using Google Maps. I liked that all of the points I checked were linked to the actual news source. That way you can see exactly what was reported, and by whom, and can follow up. It's a good idea, I hope they continue to maintain it.

Currently, most of the points on the map in the USA are people who had travel to affected areas, possibly with some risk (such as returning healthcare workers), who are being monitored for 21 days but who don't necessarily have any symptoms. So don't worry too much, most of those points outside west Africa are not actual cases of Ebola. It does give a bit of a glimpse at how widespread the potential risks are though.