Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

a reply to: udecker

You're welcome. I'm not sure I have the time at the moment to learn Google docs, and linking my ATS and Google accounts together seems like it could also be an additional privacy compromise. But if someone knows a good place to anonymously post a file and give a link to people, I could probably do that. My data is in an Excel workbook (.xls) format).

This might not be necessary though. As I've been doing this, I've become aware there are other people who have also been independently compiling the same data from WHO and other official sources. And some are already posting the compiled data publicly online and updating the data approximately as often as I am.

Caitlin Rivers has her compiled data available on github:

Link to the data from Caitlin Rivers on github

And there is a group on reddit compiling the data and putting it up on Google docs and generating their own graphs.

Link to the reddit thread: 2014 Ebola outbreaks & Deaths

Link to the data in Google docs for the reddit thread

These are excellent sources for the compiled data since late March when WHO started tracking things.

originally posted by: fwkitziger
First off ditto on the thanks to Icon, I've been following this thread from the start and really appreciate the effort to keep it up to date. The sad part is, we didn't need you to update the graphs....all we had to do is follow your original projection and know the current date! But now with your hard work and updates no one can remain in denial or ignorance about how serious this is. It took scholars with computers and fancy theories about transmission factors and all to reach the same conclusions you did with a sheet of semi-log graph paper. That's why it's undeniable, the simplicity, not much to argue with except the sampling-to-actual ratio. And for me that's what makes this a great ATS thread...all the professional contrarians are on the sidelines.

Thanks, and you're welcome! That's why I started this thread. I figured it's pretty hard to argue too much with facts and figures provided by sources like WHO and the New England Journal of Medicine, and it's pretty hard to deny the obvious general conclusions anyone could make from the graphs.

WHO came out with another update today, so I'll have new updates out soon. But basically it's still following the projections, unfortunately.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Ikonoklast, I found your logarithmic chart Googling "ebola graph" when you posted the log linear plot in early August. It scared me then, and does more so now. There are so many unknowns.

I really question the ability of our health systems to isolate people fast enough to prevent spread, especially in our mobile society. I am concerned that the rate of spread will be even faster. Just hope the virus doesn't like cold temperatures.

Also wondering if mosquitos can spread it like malaria?

a reply to: Drinthearctic

Also wondering if mosquitos can spread it like malaria?

I know this wasn't addressed to me, but seeing as I recently went looking for the answer to that particular question myself, I hope you don't mind if I share what I've found:

1 However, laboratory work indicates mosquitoes are unlikely to be transmitters of Ebola virus.

From a google scholar search summary of:

Mosquitoes and People: Environmental Ethics Concerns

HI ,


there is another new update on the who site .

armakirais

a reply to: armakirais

Thanks. I have updated the Ebola outbreak charts with the newest data from WHO that was released on September 18, 2014 (covering through September 14, 2014). I'm splitting the charts over five posts since there are a lot of different charts now. This is post 1 of 5.

Chart 3 still has the unchanged line projections but with the new known data added.

Click the graphic to see it full-size. I've put several charts into one longer graphic now. Depending on your browser, you may have to click it again once it opens if your browser downsizes graphics.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following WHO and New England Journal of Medicine websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

The numbers do not yet include the Ebola outbreak in the Congo. Currently that is believed to be unrelated to this outbreak. If that situation changes or if the Congo outbreak is not contained, I may add it to these charts or create separate charts.

Post 2 of 5 - previous post in series: ikonoklast

More of the Ebola outbreak charts with the newest data from WHO that was released on September 18, 2014 (covering through September 14, 2014). I'm splitting the charts over five posts since there are a lot of different charts now. This is post 2 of 5.

Chart 4 is the same case projection range as previously but with the known data updated. Charts 4B-4E have newer projections generated from known data through September 7, 2014 along with the known data through September 14th.

Click any of the graphics below to see them full-size. I've put several charts into two longer graphics now. Depending on your browser, you may have to click them again once they open if your browser downsizes graphics.

See the post above with Charts 1-3 for the standard disclaimers and references that apply to all of these charts.

Post 3 of 5 - previous post in series: ikonoklast

More of the Ebola outbreak charts with the newest data from WHO that was released on September 18, 2014 (covering through September 14, 2014). I'm splitting the charts over five posts since there are a lot of different charts now. This is post 3 of 5.

Chart 5 is the same deaths projection range as previously but with the known data updated. Charts 5B-5E have newer projections generated from known data through September 7, 2014 along with the known data through September 14th.

Click any of the graphics below to see them full-size. I've put several charts into two longer graphics now. Depending on your browser, you may have to click them again once they open if your browser downsizes graphics.

See the post above with Charts 1-3 for the standard disclaimers and references that apply to all of these charts.

Post 4 of 5 - previous post in series: ikonoklast

More of the Ebola outbreak charts with the newest data from WHO that was released on September 18, 2014 (covering through September 14, 2014). I'm splitting the charts over five posts since there are a lot of different charts now. This is post 4 of 5.

Chart 6 has the y-axis in powers of 2 so you can see the rate at which total cases and total deaths are doubling. Charts 7-8 are not included this time. The data is coming at too irregular of intervals to make much sense graphed in short but unequal intervals. Charts 9-10 have been merged into one chart, and with that data in one chart it also replaces charts 11-12.

Click the graphic to see it full-size. I've put several charts into one longer graphic now. Depending on your browser, you may have to click it again once it opens if your browser downsizes graphics.

See the post above with Charts 1-3 for the standard disclaimers and references that apply to all of these charts.

Post 5 of 5 - previous post in series: ikonoklast

These are the last of this batch of the Ebola outbreak charts (5th post of 5) with the newest data from WHO that was released on September 18, 2014 (covering through September 14, 2014). The charts have been split over five posts since there are a lot of different charts now.

Charts 13-14 show total cases and deaths by country. Chart 15 shows how the doubling rate has varied over time. The y-axis shows how many days it took for cases to double for any given date on the x-axis. So reading this chart is essentially the opposite of other charts - high spikes are good (it's not doubling as fast), low spikes are bad (it's doubling faster).

Click the graphic to see it full-size. I've put several charts into one longer graphic now. Depending on your browser, you may have to click it again once it opens if your browser downsizes graphics.

See the post above with Charts 1-3 for the standard disclaimers and references that apply to all of these charts.

a reply to: Drinthearctic
a reply to: jadedANDcynical

It's a relief to hear that it's not likely to be transmitted by mosquitoes! Thanks for letting us know, jaded. At least that's one lucky break.

By the way, I just posted the updated charts with the latest WHO data.

a reply to: ikonoklast

From the new chart it looks as if the doubling period is getting longer? I am not an expert just wondering any thoughts on that would be great.

I was just about to call it a night when I saw this news leak... Bloomberg just reported a news leak from the CDC that they are working on a projection to be released next week:

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control...

SOURCE: Bloomberg

If the news leak reported by Bloomberg is accurate and the CDC is really about to release a worst-case projection of 550,000 cases by the end of January 2015, I know the first question people will ask is: can you show what this looks like versus your projections? Here you go, the alleged CDC projection is shown as a dotted black line imposed on Charts 3, 4, and 4B:

So this is not confirmed or official yet, but it does fit with the projections in this thread.

originally posted by: SubTruth
a reply to: ikonoklast

From the new chart it looks as if the doubling period is getting longer? I am not an expert just wondering any thoughts on that would be great.

The doubling period was getting longer back about 4 months ago, and many thought it would be contained. Unfortunately, it was not contained, and since then the doubling period has been getting shorter again. It's currently doubling every 3 to 3.5 weeks and has been for about a month.

To put this in perspective, it only has to double 20 times (from the first case) to reach a million cases. It has already doubled more than 12 times. It only has to double 8 more times to hit a million cases. At about 25 days per doubling, that's about 200 days. At about 30 days per month, that comes out to 6.6666666666... months. Ominous number.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Thought I would check and see if you had a reply to my question.......That is the stuff of nightmares......Really scary. It boggles my mind the rate at which this can evolve. I am not a sky is falling type of person. I remember during y2k and 2012 thinking why are the people freaking out. This one makes me freak out.

originally posted by: ikonoklast
I was just about to call it a night when I saw this news leak... Bloomberg just reported a news leak from the CDC that they are working on a projection to be released next week...

SOURCE: Bloomberg

If the news leak reported by Bloomberg is accurate and the CDC is really about to release a worst-case projection of 550,000 cases by the end of January 2015, I know the first question people will ask is: can you show what this looks like versus your projections? Here you go, the alleged CDC projection is shown as a dotted black line imposed on Charts 3, 4, and 4B:

Whoops, it was late and I didn't notice that part of the left side of two of the charts got cut off. I fixed it and made other cosmetic improvements. Here is the fixed graphic:

All 3 charts are in one large graphic. Click the graphic to view it larger. If your browser automatically downsizes large graphics, you may have to click it again once the graphic opens to view it full-sized [1217(w) x 2177(h)].

The WHO projection is not official yet, but Bloomberg is a pretty reliable mainstream news site and it does fit with the projections in this thread. It may also mean a lot that Bloomberg released the story at 11PM on a Friday night when it is less likely to get noticed by large number of people.

Edit to add: Bloomberg has updated their original article this morning with a response from the White House regarding questions about the leaked WHO projection of 550,000 cases by the end of January 2015:

Asked about the CDC projection, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. commitment of $1 billion for the response to Ebola will have the effect of spurring other nations to increase their assistance.

“The projections you’re citing are long-term projections,” Earnest said yesterday. “That’s why the president was demonstrating a sense of urgency” when he spoke about the outbreak earlier this week.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

a reply to: ikonoklast

Thank you so much for giving up your time to make these! S&F

I just noticed that in some places in the charts and post(s) above I mistakenly referred to the recently leaked projection as a "WHO projection." It is actually a leaked CDC projection.

To clarify, Bloomberg and other news sources around the world are reporting a leaked CDC projection of 550,000 Ebola cases by the end of January 2015. This apparently represents a worst case scenario if efforts to slow the spread are not effective enough in time. Bloomberg noted that the projection numbers may change before the CDC report is published this next week.

Although the CDC projection is not official yet, Bloomberg is a pretty reliable mainstream news site and this is now being reported on mainstream news sites around the world. It's a big enough news leak that the White House responded:

Asked about the CDC projection, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. commitment of $1 billion for the response to Ebola will have the effect of spurring other nations to increase their assistance.

“The projections you’re citing are long-term projections,” Earnest said yesterday. “That’s why the president was demonstrating a sense of urgency” when he spoke about the outbreak earlier this week.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

I have corrected the charts to specify it is a leaked CDC projection (not WHO). I also added one more chart while I was at it so that you can see the leaked CDC projection charted against:

• The original projection lines I created on August 4,2014 for Chart 3 in the first post in this thread - this was based on a shorter timeline than subsequent projections, and this is the first time I have compared it against current data or any other projections since it was first posted.
  
  
• The updated projection lines I created on August 6, 2014 for Chart 3 using a longer timeline from the first presumed case (this became the standard Chart 3 throughout this thread so far)
  
  
• The case projection range I created on August 8 for Chart 4
  
  
• The current case projection range I created for Chart 4B, showing a projection range based on the sums of individual country projections as well as a projection range based on spread in the entire region.
  

All charts show actual data through September 14, 2014 according to the WHO update on September 18, 2014. All 4 charts are in one large graphic. Click the graphic to view it larger. If your browser automatically downsizes large graphics, you may have to click it a second time once the graphic loads to view it full-sized [1217(w) x 2928(h)].

It doesn't look good to me, but draw your own conclusions.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Thanks for the clarification. I keep coming back to your charts for the up-to-date picture. ...Unfortunately, people just don't get "exponential" - I blame our culture, not just the educational system.

a reply to: stardust22
a reply to: soficrow

You're welcome, and thanks to both of you and to everyone who has told me how much they appreciate the charts and how helpful they are.