EXPERIMENT: Can I forecast "chemtrails"?

originally posted by: Rob48
So forecast 11 is no persistent contrails between 7 and 8 am on Thursday July 24.

Once again it's harder to get the cloud right than the contrails. I woke up to unexpected grey skies first thing:


However the sun rapidly burnt through and within an hour all the cloud had vanished, leaving not a contrail in sight (you can see a plane at cruising height in this one)


Clear blue skies with a forecast high of 28°C — that counts as a heatwave round these parts

Shame I didn't have time to check the charts yesterday: I could have forecast a classic chemtrail spray!

Thread here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: Rob48

Very impressive. I came up with a way too: find the flight schedule of the types of planes that leave 'em. Then again, I have always been the lazy sort.

a reply to: LucidWarrior
Nice. Can your method be demonstrated?

Good luck OP.

It's not far fetched to say that if you add the particulate given a certain humidity, clouds can then form. Sometimes conditions are right and sometimes they're not. I don't believe that passenger jet contrails are being used to "spray us all" or intentionally change the weather.

a reply to: LucidWarrior


What do you class as "the planes that leave em"?

Any plane can leave a contrail so how does your method work?

a reply to: Rob48

Very good experiment Rob48. I approached the contrail forecasting problem about 4 months ago with a less technical approach but scientific nevertheless. I started noticing weather patterns prior to major contrail events, then waited for similar weather events to occur to see if the contrail events would then follow. When I saw the patterns develop, I began to attempt to refine the forecasts, last month I began to blog the forecasts while still learning the science behind the formations. I am situated on a west/east flyway and have predominant weather west to east so this is an ideal location to do these experiment forecasts. you may want to take a look at my blog theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com... and I may leave messages for other posters who know the science so I can receive some critique and advise. I am finding a lack of vocabulary when trying to describe the various forms of contrails so I am finding it necessary to create new terms. An example is when the contrails transform to the milky white sheets, I prefer to use the term cirrostratus aviaticus. I foresee a time when contrail forecasts will be mentioned on weather forecasting shows much like pollen count or pollutant levels.

originally posted by: LucidWarrior
a reply to: Rob48

Very impressive. I came up with a way too: find the flight schedule of the types of planes that leave 'em. Then again, I have always been the lazy sort.

This post shows what you have to deal with when people don't know the subject they are posting about!

a reply to: Rob48

Good work and research into forecasting what you see in the sky. Late to this thread, but wanted to post a thought anyway. Not being blind when I look into the sky, and yet not wholly convinced they are spraying chemicals in the sky.. one question looms.. is why and when did we start accepting this term "persistent contrails?" Years ago.. if you had mentioned to someone that there were some strange trails in the sky- the immediate reply would simply be.. contrails.. nothing to see.. just regular contrails. . but the language has postured and changed to allow for "persistent contrails" which seem to then allow for a logical explanation for many lines in the sky, cloud formations, and over all haze created when these persistent contrails do occur.. often changing very blue sky days into hazy nightmares daily in the U.S. like clockwork.. so you find it to be 85F Degree outside, blue sky.. yet above .. the trails.. then the spreading out and the sheet clouds or the wispy clouds.. these aren't the skies I remember as a child nor my friends.. Ok.. to be fair.. if air traffic has really increased that much we do have a different kind of problem then on hand.. and that may account for why we are seeing it more.. BUT .. what if we take an example of just two planes flying through the sky.. just two. in your conditions of RH example and elevation.. then the public at large should ALWAYS have been seeing a persistent contrail for as long as we can remember.. always looking to the sky and then ever now and then seeing one (or two) long horizon to horizon contrail that then fans out or creates cloud formations.. but yet.. I don't recall ever seeing such things.. NASA is flying programs right now per their site.. to study the effects of airline aerosols.. so what gives.. has the fuel changed, is the atmosphere less forgiving now so the persistent contrails appear more easily? why do 5 or 6 or 10 contrails join to blank out the sky in a white haze?

@TTIOTT

I guess the term 'persistent contrail' has gained more popularity as it's need arose to explain what some people suspected were 'chemtrails'. Actually, the latter seems to be the newer term. Back when I was young (early 70's), the term 'chemtrail' didn't exist, yet I vividly recall seeing persistent contrails (I didn't call them that, but I did see contrails linger around).

But anyway, memory is fallible. For some reason, chemtrail believers never seem to recall seeing contrails in the past, all the documentation in pictures, movies, scientific papers etc be damned.

The amount of contrails has increased though, as there is now more traffic flying around. There are some 100.000 flights flying all over the globe every day now, so yes, you're going to see more of them. But they're still the same basic thing.

I'm not sure why these things are a mystery to you. Nowadays we have the internet, and it literally takes less than 2 minutes to look up any of the things you mention:

Contrails:

www.aero-net.info...

Jet traffic increase:

vitalsigns.worldwatch.org...

a reply to: payt69

I'm willing to entertain the idea that the increase in air travel schedules has presented more appearances of contrails.. however even if this is the only issue, contrails from aircraft, and I'm assuming everyone assuming just jet fuel and icy formations in the trail, we have a big big airline problem. They are everywhere through the sky , joining together and making clouds. It's changing the sky to a white haze.. it's like cars on the ground but airplanes in the sky. what's to be done then? limit air travel? research different fuels? I for one do no remember any persistent contrails (also 1970's)
only short little wispy trail that i always recognized planes at high altitude by, and then poof! disappears..
we can leave the debate open as to what's in a trail..or contrail.. but the photos i take and i have 1000's.. are downright scary.. sky filled with particulates, not any real cloud, wispy edges.. odd formations, just particulate matter muddying up the skies.

originally posted by: TTIOT
a reply to: payt69

I'm willing to entertain the idea that the increase in air travel schedules has presented more appearances of contrails.. however even if this is the only issue, contrails from aircraft, and I'm assuming everyone assuming just jet fuel and icy formations in the trail, we have a big big airline problem. They are everywhere through the sky , joining together and making clouds. It's changing the sky to a white haze.. it's like cars on the ground but airplanes in the sky. what's to be done then? limit air travel? research different fuels? I for one do no remember any persistent contrails (also 1970's)
only short little wispy trail that i always recognized planes at high altitude by, and then poof! disappears..
we can leave the debate open as to what's in a trail..or contrail.. but the photos i take and i have 1000's.. are downright scary.. sky filled with particulates, not any real cloud, wispy edges.. odd formations, just particulate matter muddying up the skies.

Well maybe you can post some of the ones you consider scary.

But I'm willing to bet they look like all the other ones I've seen before. They're only scary because you don't know what you're looking at. So I suggest you educate yourself and learn a bit a bout aviation and meteorology, since all the supposed 'chemtrail' pictures I've seen to date can be explained in terms of those disciplines. Please don't take my word for it though.. go and look it up (which is kindof like 'Look Up', but provides you with a background to understand what you're looking at).

I added some links to my previous post, those may be a good starting point.

a reply to: payt69

Thanks. I will upload some photos.. a couple anyway. and try and steer clear of the standard type.. I take a lot in B&W
to increase contrast so you can see what is odd (to me at least)
I do understand meteorology and aviation from the common sense standpoint. I just know there are days also
that I feel like i am being invaded by another planet.. with so many lines in the sky all filtering together to create
real white outs// haze outs.. and some only on 1/2 of the sky.. I do not remember that from years ago..
there is an anecdotal quality to this.. that people are complaining about it, noticing it , and wondering what the heck is going on. The world is a different place than it was. At any rate.. NASA has planes up in the sky studying particulate matter, Aircraft from Germany studying Airline Aerosols, NOAA publishing papers that there are 'unknown' particulates in the atmosphere that have aided in the helping Global conditions.. something is going on.. measurements of extreme UV done by Universities.. all real links, all real info.. it doesn't have to be Chemtrails but it can be the breakdown of the atmosphere before our eyes, too many flights , that skies can't handle it.. 100 years of fight finally catching up.. who knows.. I do know that sometimes the sky just does not look right.

a reply to: TTIOT


The earliest reference to persistant contrails that I can readily lay my hands on is a copy of Flight magazine from 1956. When I'm not at work I'll try to post the relevant part.

You don't always see contrails because atmospheric conditions are not static, I'll try to explain that better too, just laying a marker.

originally posted by: TTIOT
a reply to: Rob48

Good work and research into forecasting what you see in the sky. Late to this thread, but wanted to post a thought anyway. Not being blind when I look into the sky, and yet not wholly convinced they are spraying chemicals in the sky.. one question looms.. is why and when did we start accepting this term "persistent contrails?" Years ago.. if you had mentioned to someone that there were some strange trails in the sky- the immediate reply would simply be.. contrails.. nothing to see.. just regular contrails. . but the language has postured and changed to allow for "persistent contrails"

As I mentioned before, I can show usage of the term in 1956 in Flight magazine,

here is a clipping which uses the term to differentiate between short trails and persistent ones, so its not a recent development within aviation circles at all. Most people probably didn't pay much attention to whether a trail persisted or not, just using 'contrail' as a catch-all. That is, until people started talking about chemtrails and making spurious claims that contrails cannot persist, then suddenly the term is needed more generally as a means of explanation of something that aviation people had known for decades but nobody else was bothered about.

......which seem to then allow for a logical explanation for many lines in the sky, cloud formations, and over all haze created when these persistent contrails do occur.. often changing very blue sky days into hazy nightmares daily in the U.S. like clockwork.. so you find it to be 85F Degree outside, blue sky.. yet above .. the trails.. then the spreading out and the sheet clouds or the wispy clouds..

The atmosphere gets cooler the higher you go. I'm sure you know this already as you will be familiar with images of snow at the top of high mountains all year round. Therefore its easy to see that 85F on the ground has no bearing on the temperature at 30,000ft where it is usually around -40F regardless of ground level temps. In this region the water vapour from an aircraft exhaust cannot help but freeze immediately behind the engine. Whether or not that trail then persists or not depends on the relative humidity in the region. Low and the trail sublimates back into the air. High and it cannot go anywhere as the air is saturated and so it just sits there until that condition changes again. Nothing scary or mysterious about it, its just weather.

...these aren't the skies I remember as a child nor my friends.. Ok.. to be fair.. if air traffic has really increased that much we do have a different kind of problem then on hand..

No, they aren't. And it isn't just air traffic levels rising either. More modern fuel efficient turbofans only burn about 10 per cent or so of the air that passes through them, with the rest being bypassed by the lead fan to produce 'clean' thrust (this is also much cheaper for the airlines as less fuel is burned for every pound of thrust obtained) unlike the turbojets of past decades which burned 100%, and often spat out choking smoke as well as jet fuel exhaust products. this means that exhausts are cooler (in the physical sense, rather than the fashion sense) and contain more water, which in turn, means more and bigger trails. The contrails you can see are not particles or pollution themselves, they are merely water. Obviously contaminants are contained within them, but this is a tiny fraction and far far less than there would be if we still used turbojets to power our large transports. Not anything like perfect, but the best efficiency we have ever achieved with ANY kind of carbon fuelled propulsion on land sea or air previously.

and that may account for why we are seeing it more.. BUT .. what if we take an example of just two planes flying through the sky.. just two. in your conditions of RH example and elevation.. then the public at large should ALWAYS have been seeing a persistent contrail for as long as we can remember.. always looking to the sky and then ever now and then seeing one (or two) long horizon to horizon contrail that then fans out or creates cloud formations.. but yet.. I don't recall ever seeing such things..

But what about the weather? When the air is cold enough you will always see trails and when RHI is high enough you WILL always see trails persist. This has never changed. You may not remember them in the past but many, myself included do remember them. why do you expect your memory to be 100% accurate?

NASA is flying programs right now per their site.. to study the effects of airline aerosols..
so what gives.. has the fuel changed, is the atmosphere less forgiving now so the persistent contrails appear more easily? why do 5 or 6 or 10 contrails join to blank out the sky in a white haze?

Why wouldn't they continually study the effects of ever evolving technology and increasing air traffic? Seems a sensible thing to do. Why do trails join together and cover the sky? exactly the same reason that clouds do. the atmospheric conditions are right. It was reported during ww2 by RAF PR Spitfire pilots that they felt like when they were approaching their target on certain days their contrail pointed them out like a big finger to the enemy and they felt so vulnerable in their unarmed aircraft, but on their return the contrail had spread into a blanket to hide their return. This would be 1942 if i remember correctly.

originally posted by: TTIOT
a reply to: payt69

Thanks. I will upload some photos.. a couple anyway. and try and steer clear of the standard type.. I take a lot in B&W

Please do. Even though I don't believe in the chemtrail theory, I am a big fan of B&W photography.

a reply to: waynos

Wow! thank you for the immensely thoughtful response and the time you put in to your post. !
The 1956 flight magazine is interesting for sure, there has clearly (or not so clearly haha) the term "persistent
contrail" in circulation. It's obviously become more widepread as people struggle with how to describe their sky.
I will get back at you with more thoughts.. it's a big subject obviously ,the pollution of our skies and has many ramifications, solar, chemical, radioactive.. I think we just don't really know what's really going on at all up there.. or down here. it's the spirit and intent of years of the technological and manufacturing age.. laid bare on the stage of heavens and earth for the denizens to depict and allegorize and point up and down and all around..

a reply to: TTIOT

If the problem here is just the use of the term 'persistent' as applied to how long contrails remain (or persist) for,then we need to stop reading badly researched garbage on the internet and watching Youtube videos prepared the same way.Most if not all of these are just being repeated parrot fashion by someone who's read something else that's been 'researched' in the same way by someone else all repeating parrot fashion.
Although I can't find it now,there's records of contrails staying visible for different amounts of time as early as 1919,the first year aircraft were able to fly high enough to leave contrails of any kind.So for the best part of 100 years now this phenomenon has been known about and documented.

The statements I also find odd are the ones that state 'As a kid,I only remember perfect clear blue sky's and never saw ANY contrails at all'.This is most likely because how many pre-teenage kids pay any REAL attention to what's happening above their heads,a VERY small fraction of them from my experience as most of them don't even pay much attention to what's happening right in front of their noses most of the time.If you have an interest in aircraft at that age,you will like me actually watch the sky and remember what it was like back in those days.I started watching the sky above me from the early 1970s and remember a LOT more days that started off as cloudless and deep blue but were gradually turned a murky grey by contrails that didn't disappear after a few minutes like they normally did.With the help of my dad it was obvious to me that there would always be a weather front visible in the West when this happened,the front was the cause of this happening and not the other way round as too many people now like to believe even when demonstrated otherwise.I still like to watch the sky and in my opinion despite the fact that there are now a LOT more commercial flights up there (I think the number has tripled since the 1970s?),it is now a lot rarer here in Southern England to see the sky completely greyed out by persistent contrails than it used to be some 40 years ago.