EXPERIMENT: Can I forecast "chemtrails"?

Rob, I did get your message,and I will upload the photos I took yesterday in a bit. (cooking dinner right now)
But we had partly cloudy skies, with a few scattered contrails, didn't see too many that lasted, but those that did, were in a group of clouds, so you would expect it there. I did get a great evening shot with some nice colors, so I will give you more than just clouds.

a reply to: network dude
Ok thanks. I did say it would be pretty borderline conditions

One more photo from me tonight just before sunset. For one, because it is a pretty photo. For two, because it illustrates an important point...



There are at least six westbound jets in the field of view of that photo.

Without contrails, they are almost totally invisible unless the sun happens to glint on them.

I think that is why people often underestimate the amount of air traffic overhead, until they see trails.

In areas where trails are relatively infrequent you can see why it might cause confusion when they do appear.

a reply to: Rob48

But is anyone even following this thread?

I doubt if any "chemtrail" believers will watch this. This is like taking a jackhammer to the foundation of their belief system.

Thanks!

Just a very quick forecast for the morning as it is bedtime!

More moisture returns overnight and the upper air cools down. Looks like contrails are favoured at 300mb but perhaps not at 250mb. Not a hugely confident one this but here goes:

Forecast 6: "Chemtrails" visible between 7am and 9am tomorrow, July 7.

originally posted by: Rob48
Forecast 6: "Chemtrails" visible between 7am and 9am tomorrow, July 7.

The sprayers didn't let me down



Some nice parallel lines persisting well above the cumulus deck.

6/6 so far.

a reply to: Rob48

Because the RH can never be higher than 100%...

Not quite true...a minor point, I know...nice thread btw...

originally posted by: totallackey
a reply to: Rob48

Because the RH can never be higher than 100%...

Not quite true...a minor point, I know...nice thread btw...

Yes, I did address that in a later post. In fact the RH on some days since I started this post has been over 130%!

There are two ways to present the RH. One of them, the World Meteorological Organization standard, uses the liquid water saturation level even below freezing point, so the RH can never go above 100% using that measure.

But the actual RH with respect to ice saturation can and does go above 100%.

Still a few trails visible this evening as the last of the moist air hangs on in southeast England:


However tomorrow morning should have extremely dry and relatively warm air at altitude:



Not much chance of contrails from those conditions, and hopefully not too much cloud at lower levels, so...

Forecast 7: No persistent trails tomorrow morning from 7-8am.

a reply to: Rob48

Still some scattered mid-level cloud this morning (the high humidity at 700mb up to 500mb can be seen in the sounding above) but up at contrail height the air is crystal clear once again: I can see the planes shining in the sun but no trails at all:



7/7

a reply to: Rob48

now you are just showing off.

No forecast for tomorrow morning, because it looks like being too cloudy to see any trails. In fact there's a rather unsettled couple of days coming up and then I'm going to be away over the weekend with limited (or no) internet access. If it looks like there will be clear skies in the next couple of days, though, I'll try to make the next testable forecast.

This pretty much sums up the picture for the next few days, so it might be a while till the next forecast!


In the meantime if anyone in a sunnier part of the world wants me to have a go then I'll test my predictions elsewhere...

So much for wall-to-wall cloud this morning. Even the pros get it wrong sometimes and there was much less low cloud this morning than expected, which revealed a rather interesting sky.

I had a rare sighting of a chemvac plane, or "sucker tanker". See, even TPTB screw up occasionally, and spraying operations can stray into an NDZ (non dispersion zone). When this occurs, a chemvac jet is scrambled to vacuum up the nanoparticulates and restore the air clarity. Here it is in action:



Or perhaps...

a reply to: Rob48

They were collecting the Nano smart chaff. It's all the rage these days. And with it's expense, they need to collect it after deployment. So they use the vacu-suck.

Yes there are still lots of people reading this thread,but like me don't have anything useful to add to it. What I notice though is the almost total lack of counter arguments by the chemmie supporters. Normally in any topic shooting their beliefs down in flames,they're ready with such proof as "Tanker Enemy has videos on Youtube proving chemtrails are real".This sort of topic with 100% irrefutable scientific proof is their Kryptonite,hence the reason they keep their distance from them. If they did get too close and got involved with them,they start to lose their special tomorrow people like powers who have the ability to look at contrails from 7 or 8 miles below them and be able to determine their exact chemical composition.

originally posted by: Rob48
I had a rare sighting of a chemvac plane, or "sucker tanker". See, even TPTB screw up occasionally, and spraying operations can stray into an NDZ (non dispersion zone). When this occurs, a chemvac jet is scrambled to vacuum up the nanoparticulates and restore the air clarity.

nice!

Just resurrecting this thread. I am currently staying in a very beautiful spot on the Welsh borders.

Lots of air traffic goes overhead at high altitude here, yesterday had plenty of big persistent trails.



It's a bit cloudy this morning after a front passed through overnight but charts look good for a forecast of clear skies and no persistent contrails at 7pm tonight.

originally posted by: Rob48
It's a bit cloudy this morning after a front passed through overnight but charts look good for a forecast of clear skies and no persistent contrails at 7pm tonight

Dark clouds cleared to the northeast to leave really crystal clear skies overhead, showing that the humidity is pretty low up at 30,000 feet.



Eight out of eight correct forecasts.

Conditions tomorrow morning also do not look like they will support contrail formation, so forecast nine is no persistent contrails at 7am tomorrow. I am expecting a moderate amount of mid-level cloud but hopefully not enough to block observations.

You've got to go for the ten. At least.

a reply to: waynos
Is anyone comparing this to a control study - like a coin toss??!!