EXPERIMENT: Can I forecast "chemtrails"?

a reply to: PhoenixOD

Have you got a date and location for these?

a reply to: Rob48

ill find out in the morning

originally posted by: Rob48
Over the past few mornings I have been observing the appearance or non-appearance of persistent contrails (commonly described, incorrectly, as "chemtrails") above my house, and relating it to the atmospheric conditions

All contrails are chemically active, all persistent contrails are chemically active, all persistent non-spreading contrails are chemically active, all persistent spreading contrails are chemically active. Cosmic rays induce chemical activity on clouds, and presumably contrails, why not? Deliberate patent spraying from jets are obviously chemically active, and ignoring all the above, could just amount to the same effect either more or less. All the above could and probably do, include ice crystal formations purely on their own, or around a nucleus of any order, you name it.
You cannot oversimplify, that would be the same as looking at a persistent contrail and saying that it is deliberate chemical spraying.

Morning, trail watchers...

Here are the results of the first prediction, which was for NO CHEMTRAILS.

There's a bit of high-level cloud about - altocumulus I believe - which indicates a change in the weather on the way, but importantly, no persistent contrails

Click for large image. Hopefully you can see, just right of centre, an aircraft at cruising height which is leaving only a standard, very short, quickly dispersing trail.

And just to show how busy the skies are here - it's not a case of "no planes to leave the trails":



And a close-up of one of those planes showing how the conditions are not right for trails to persist: a very short-lived vapour trail here.



I think I can call that a success. Looking at the soundings for later on in the day, it looks like conditions are going to get much more favourable for trail formation in the afternoon and into the early evening.



So, forecast number two is that there will be "chemtrails" visible above my office in London by 6pm this evening, BST.

a reply to: PhoenixOD

i got some good pics the other week

Are you and those around you sick yet?

Anyone dying around you?

Might want to get checked out for chemtrail fever, or Morgellons disease.

a reply to: Rob48

9th april weston-super-mare uk

originally posted by: PhoenixOD
a reply to: Rob48

9th april weston-super-mare uk

Nice conditions for contrails on that date.

Here's a satellite image for the evening of April 9: www.woksat.info...



There's one absolutely huge persistent trail clearly visible right from the north coast of Ireland all the way down to Cornwall: a distance of some 350 miles. And more trails running more east-west in the western approaches. Obviously these aren't the exact trails you saw but it's a nice illustration of how saturated the air was.

The nearest sounding I can find in the archives is for Cornwall, so not very close to you, but it does show how cold and moist the air was, with a thick moist layer from about 475mb right up to 200mb+ and upper air temperatures of about -57ºC at 250mb.

meteocentre.com...

Rob, here is a shot of the outer bands of the hurricaine we had yesterday evening. (not relevent to the contrails, but shows the storm)



And here is my sky this morning.



No contrails. Very little clouds. Low humidity. (perfect for golf)

I'll update later in the day.
(this is taken at 7:45amEST)

a reply to: network dude

Yes, you're in a nice dry slot this morning...



There is more moisture coming in later on today but I think the upper air will still be just too warm for contrails, although it is pretty borderline.

Tomorrow the temperatures are more favourable (a few degrees colder) but the humidity varies hugely over North Carolina, with dry air to the north and very wet air to the south. So it's quite a tough call. This is for 4pm local time tomorrow:



Dunn appears to be right on the northern edge of the moisture at that time. If you're going to see trails, they should be more prevalent to the south!

a reply to: Rob48

Thanks for taking the time to do all that. I will follow up later today, and take a few tomorrow.
Enjoy your day.

originally posted by: Rob48

So, forecast number two is that there will be "chemtrails" visible above my office in London by 6pm this evening, BST.

Forecast two, landed.

The trails are starting to persist now, as forecast.

The view from out of my office window 5 minutes ago:


Even captured another of those elusive black chemtrails Close-up:


So, two for two so far.

As for tomorrow morning, I think that's a wash.



Massive amounts of moisture at low levels implies I am likely to wake to 8/8 cloud cover. Typical, after a mostly sunny working week that Saturday is likely to be cloudy and wet, but that's the English summer for you...

Tomorrow's forecast: CLOUD, no trails visible. (If I could see up to 35,000ft then there should be some trails up there, though!)

originally posted by: Rob48

Tomorrow's forecast: CLOUD, no trails visible. (If I could see up to 35,000ft then there should be some trails up there, though!)

Just for completeness...


Hopefully I'll be able to make a testable forecast for tomorrow.

Just had another look at the charts.

I'm going to an outdoor music festival today (that's why it is overcast after a warm and sunny working week, of course! ). It does look as though the low cloud will thin out this afternoon so I may get to see some sunshine.

However at 250mb the temperature will be -50°C with close to 100% humidity so there should be some persistent contrails


I will keep an eye on the sky and see if I can see any through the gaps. Next "official" forecast will be for tomorrow though, because this one relies on being able to see enough sky to make a meaningful observation, which may not be possible.

originally posted by: Rob48

However at 250mb the temperature will be -50°C with close to 100% humidity so there should be some persistent contrails.

I will keep an eye on the sky and see if I can see any through the gaps.

Well the cloud did break briefly and give us a bit of sunshine and sure enough I snapped a glimpse of a crossing pair of contrails. So that's 3 out of 3 so far.



Forecast for tomorrow at 7am BST:




With an air temp as low as -52°C and RH of >130% it should be nailed on for some persistent trails. Only caveat is that there is quite a lot more low-level moisture forecast than there was when I last looked, so low cloud may well prevent me seeing them!

Forecast 3 for Sun July 6 7am: CHEMTRAILS

(subject to being able to see the sky)

Perhaps the perfect time to effect the weather, or the overall climate with a little Geo-engineering would be just in front of any systems moving in.

What I would like to see is a comparison to the amount of rain that is forecast with the amount that actually falls.

originally posted by: Witness2008

What I would like to see is a comparison to the amount of rain that is forecast with the amount that actually falls.

Should be doable once today's rainfall figures are in. Watch this space.

Edit: OK, rainfall from 06Z-18Z today at my local Met Office station was 0.8mm.

The shaded maps are not the greatest resolution but the forecast was for between 0.1mm and 2mm.


Not sure what you are implying about added rainfall though: contrails are nowhere near the frontal rain-producing level of the atmosphere.

Contrails are typically at 30,000-40,000ft. Frontal rain falls from nimbostratus, which are typically below 7,000-8,000ft.

originally posted by: Rob48
Forecast 3 for Sun July 6 7am: CHEMTRAILS

(subject to being able to see the sky)

Well, as I suspected there was a lot of stratus first thing.

However it did thin out enough to allow me to photograph this very long trail through the muck. Looks like quite a low-level trail and a nice illustration of the saturated conditions:


4/4 forecasts correct so far, plus one "no forecast" due to cloud.

There's some drier air coming my way so hopefully I'll be able to make a forecast for some clear, trail-free skies over the next day or two.

I have no idea if anyone is still reading this thread but I am going to plough on with this experiment regardless.

Currently (12.20pm) the skies are still rather overcast, but looking at the charts there is a big change on the way.

Current situation: over 90% humidity at 300mb.


By 10pm tonight: less than 20%!


Sunset is at 9.18pm tonight, so my next forecast is:
Clearing skies and no persistent contrails by around sunset tonight.

originally posted by: Rob48

Sunset is at 9.18pm tonight, so my next forecast is:
Clearing skies and no persistent contrails by around sunset tonight.

Very pleased with this forecast, in more ways than one! Just over an hour till sunset and the dry air has hit with a vengeance.

Crystal skies, a few cumulus and not a hint of a contrail.



Five out of five

The results have been better than I expected so far. But is anyone even following this thread?

a reply to: Rob48

I have no idea if anyone is still reading this thread but I am going to plough on with this experiment regardless.

Not really anything I can add so I watch, but yes we are still here.

Continue on...