EXPERIMENT: Can I forecast "chemtrails"?

originally posted by: Rob48

originally posted by: Rob48
It's a bit cloudy this morning after a front passed through overnight but charts look good for a forecast of clear skies and no persistent contrails at 7pm tonight

Conditions tomorrow morning also do not look like they will support contrail formation, so forecast nine is no persistent contrails at 7am tomorrow. I am expecting a moderate amount of mid-level cloud but hopefully not enough to block observations.

Good job I'm not trying to forecast mid-level cloud, as I was way out this morning: there is virtually none!


But no chemtrails either. Spot the plane leaving a very short vapour trail. (It's an Aer Lingus A320 from London to Dublin, at 32,000ft.) It seems to be a lot easier to forecast contrails than cloud amounts!

And just so I can't be accused of zooming on a selected patch of sky, here's the view in the other direction (and an excuse to show off the Herefordshire countryside)...


Nine out of nine correct forecasts

a reply to: Rob48

Hey, Isn't that one of those deep blue skies that don't exist anymore?

a reply to: Rob48

If you want a little practice, tell me what I should have seen yesterday in my area in the AM. I have a couple pics I'll upload after your prediction if you have time.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Rob48

If you want a little practice, tell me what I should have seen yesterday in my area in the AM. I have a couple pics I'll upload after your prediction if you have time.

Just had a look. It's actually not a very simple one. You're in Dunn NC, right? The nearest soundings I can find are for Greensboro and Newport, and you seem to be right between the two.

At 12Z yesterday (8am your time), Greensboro had considerably higher humidity at 250mb than Newport:



However the air at that level (36,000ft) is relatively warm (above -45°C), and looking at the more detailed maps I think you were probably in the drier sector, so I wouldn't expect to see persistent contrails unless you have any really high traffic (like close to 40,000ft).

So I'm going to say you had trail-free skies yesterday morning?

a reply to: Rob48

I may have messed you up with being in the boondocks and all.
We had "a heavy spray day" in the morning, that gave way to some scattered clouds but very sunny afternoon. Here is what my sky looked like yesterday morning about 10am.





Since it all cleared up about 1pm, I'd have to assume they used that vaccu-suck think to clear up the trails.

(Since I am not in line with any stations, you don't have to count this against your record.)

And for Vet, notice in the second picture how my buddies driver is almost touching the clouds. (he is really tall)

a reply to: network dude
Guess I struck out with that one! Like I said it wasn't a clear-cut one as you must have been pretty much on the boundary of two air masses (hence the change you saw in the afternoon).


It's hard to be precise from a small map of the whole USA. I think the planes leaving those trails must have been pretty high, as normally I would say that -44°C at 250mb would be too warm for persistent trails. The soundings show that at 40,000ft or so the air was much colder (-55°C) which is well into the persistence zone.

If I have time I'll replay FR24 and see what went over.

a reply to: Rob48

Thanks a lot for taking the time to check all that. Since conditions changed during the day, your explanation makes sense. I'll be in Cleveland later in the week, so I'll try to update you with another location to forecast if you would like.

Edit to add:
We are expecting a large front on Tuesday, so I think all the trails are due to that. We usually don't have as many as I saw Sunday.
(I am on the inside with chemtrail pilots and I asked them not to spray me)

a reply to: network dude
Well it's all a learning experience. I expected to have been caught out with my local forecasts by now, as it is not an exact science. It just shows that even if the conditions at 36,000 feet aren't right, they can be very different slightly higher so I need to take that into account.

I just replayed FR24 around 10am your time yesterday. There was a succession of Learjets flying at 40,000 feet from northeast to southwest and passing to the east of Dunn (as well as some other commercial traffic at 38,000ft).

This was about 9.45am your time with a filter showing only traffic above 38,000ft



Would that flight path tie in with the direction in your photos, I wonder? You seem to have lots of parallel lines.

a reply to: Rob48

Those actually line up perfectly with the orientation in the pictures.

Like I said, we don't get many that last like those did.

Thanks again for taking your time on this.

a reply to: network dude
You're welcome. We don't seem to get these Learjets flying over at that height so I didn't account for those!

Now, can I make it to 10 in a row official forecasts?

Chart for tomorrow at 7pm:

-49°C and >60% RH should favour persistent trails with relatively clear skies beneath.

So forecast 10 is persistent contrails visible between 7pm and sunset tomorrow evening.

a reply to: Rob48

It's a mystery why this thread hasn't been flagged more. I guess there aren't many members who visit the chemtrails forum anymore?

I've been following it from day 1 and regard it as one of those 'easter eggs' of ATS - a sweet idea that's tucked away out of sight.

Great effort Rob

a reply to: Kandinsky

Thanks, comments like that are appreciated.

I imagine all the charts and graphs on the opening page put a lot of people off!

originally posted by: Rob48
Now, can I make it to 10 in a row official forecasts?

Oh Rob, I'd love to give you the credit for 10, but those trails were only a foot or so above my friends driver. You can CLEARLY see that.

Just kidding. 40,000' lear jets. Just think, it could have been Kim and Kanya' flying over my house.
Or maybe David Icke was on to another speaking engagement. (is his pilot a reptilian?)

originally posted by: Rob48
a reply to: network dude
So forecast 10 is persistent contrails visible between 7pm and sunset tomorrow evening.

And I'm doing better for my location, with 10 out of 10 correct. Here was a particularly fat one headed west this evening:

Another one worth sharing right around sunset was this nice curved trail lit up by te sun:


Easy to identify with that turn to the right: this A320 from Brussels to Dublin.


To show the distances involved, the turning point is near RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, 40 miles away.

originally posted by: Kandinsky
a reply to: Rob48

It's a mystery why this thread hasn't been flagged more. I guess there aren't many members who visit the chemtrails forum anymore?

I've been following it from day 1 and regard it as one of those 'easter eggs' of ATS - a sweet idea that's tucked away out of sight.

Great effort Rob

Whats more interesting the lack of chemtrailers
s&f by the way.

a reply to: Rob48

Witchcraft! Or do you have an orgone buster you failed to mention?

I won't count this as an official forecast as it is only 8 or 9 hours ahead but there should be some good chemtrail activity around sunset tonight as well, with clear skies and very saturated air above.

originally posted by: Rob48
I won't count this as an official forecast as it is only 8 or 9 hours ahead but there should be some good chemtrail activity around sunset tonight as well, with clear skies and very saturated air above.

Interesting times ahead for the end of the week though

originally posted by: mrthumpy

originally posted by: Rob48
I won't count this as an official forecast as it is only 8 or 9 hours ahead but there should be some good chemtrail activity around sunset tonight as well, with clear skies and very saturated air above.

Interesting times ahead for the end of the week though

Yes plenty of storms forecast.

As for tonight, we got the trails but the clear skies never quite happened.


I'm off to France for a few days in the morning so no more forecasts till next week.

Time for the next forecast, and I'm going for longer range. Thursday morning looks like being nicely trail free.


So forecast 11 is no persistent contrails between 7 and 8 am on Thursday July 24.

Conditions tomorrow morning also look pretty dry up there, but close inspection of the forecast suggests that very high aircraft may be laying trails. Not an official forecast, but I'll keep an eye out for trails at 38,000ft+ but no trails at 30-35,000ft cruising altitudes.