Beijing-bound MAS plane carrying 239 people missing as of 20 mins ago.

theabsolutetruth
reply to post by Arbitrageur

 

Please see above post re 5000ft for whoever is guessing at altitudes, the released altitude data has been minimal so far and the 45000 disputed as unlikely. The report of 5000ft shows that the altitude in fact varied during the total flying time.

I read that source...sounds like a guess to me.

Investigators are poring over the Boeing 777-200ER's flight profile to determine if it had flown low

It sure doesn't sound like they know to me. Sure it's possible, and maybe that's what happened, but speculation about altitude is much more prominent than facts, after it left military radar where apparently it was considerably higher than that.

Reports of flight flying under radar to Taliban areas.

www.independent.co.uk... ed-9195320.html

The missing Malaysian airlines flight MH370 may have been deliberately flown under the radar to Taliban-controlled bases on the border of Afghanistan, it has emerged, as authorities said that the final “All right, good night” message sent from the cockpit came after one of the jet's communications systems had already been switched off.

Eight days after the Boeing 777 vanished, The Independent has learnt that Malaysian authorities are seeking diplomatic permission to investigate a theory that the plane was flown to one of a number of Taliban strongholds on the Afghan border in North West Pakistan.

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Did jetliner fly into area controlled by Taliban? Net widens after claims final satellite signal could have been sent from the ground

Last night sources in Kuala Lumpur assisting with the investigation told The Independent that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that are not under government control.

Large areas of the southern half of Afghanistan are ruled by the Afghan Taliban, while some areas of north-west Pakistan, adjacent to or near to the Afghan border, are controlled by the Pakistani Taliban.

A spokesman for Malaysian Airlines said: “These are matters for the jurisdiction of those regions and Malaysia’s armed forces and department of civil aviation. In regard to Pakistan and Afghanistan, we cannot explore those theories without permission. We hope to have that soon.”

WanDash
reply to post by sy.gunson

 

Thanks for the thoughts & insights sy.gunson
You apparently have some working knowledge of the aircraft, etc…

With regard to the first part of your proposal…of the aircraft ‘taking-off’ with a faulty generator…giving erratic voltage/s…and the pilot/s possessing an option to run it in parallel with another generator…
Questions:
Is it, or is it not likely, that a pilot would comment on said “issue” to the tower as soon as the problem was noticed/identified?
Would this “fault” be recorded/logged in any of the pre-flight, taxiing, take-off & climb data transmissions?
(I see you’ve addressed, at least, part of this, being – you believe the Malaysian gov’t &/or airline are keeping a hand behind the back… So… Maybe we do have a conspiracy

)

The tower is not responsible for management of aircraft systems and only responds to requests for route directions or emergency declarations etc. In addition after handing off from Malaysian airspace the flight would next need to make contact with Vietnamese ATC who may issue a new transponder code. These are just number combinations given by voice and inputted by a pilot.

Airliners take off hundreds of times every day with faulty generators. There is a Minimum Equipment List (MEL) checklist which specifies how many working generators the aircraft needs to fly, how many working altimeters, how many working Flight Management Computers etc, etc.

That is worked out between the airline and the certifying authority which approves the MEL list in the Operations Manual. Thing is an engineer could certify a generator with a recurring problem which has not yet failed. Pilots could opt to run a faulty generator in parallel with a working one to boost voltages. Things like seat-back entertainment systems suck power like crazy from an aircraft. Pilots are forbidden from running air conditioning at take off because of the power demands.

Pilots however are not electrical engineers. Often they discover problems once a flight has commenced and then troubleshoot according to manual procedures, or where the manual has no set procedure, then according to their own experience. If a generator has a voltage drop for the first time then running a generator in parallel will work, but if it has flown for 6 months with the same fault and the pilots apply the same fix to a recurring problem for the thousandth time, the diodes are becoming hot and stressed.

When voltages and temperatures become too high diodes will fail with catastrophic fire and explosions as a possibility.

With regard to more of your proposal… overloaded/failed diode results in an explosion that ruptures the pressure hull…which apparently results in an electrical explosion that disables the ‘aircraft systems’…and “somehow” the fully digital throttles acquire a/the command to develop full thrust…to ‘dead man’s corner’…and stall…then fall to a lower altitude pointing west…and resume in auto-pilot, but, fly erratically for another 5 hours…
Seems a lot of moving parts have to synchronize for this to pan out.

Modern airliners are an electronic symphony of orders and instructions through a computer nerve centre near, or in the cockpit. Gone are the days when pilots were physically connected by cables and pulleys to actual moving controls. Everything now is digital.

This means that for everything to work, there needs to be a symphony of complex moving parts. If a surge of electricity fries the electronic brain some controls will fail open. In fact with a burned out diode which normally acts as a barrier or door to electrical signals if it burns out the electronic "door" is left in the open position. With electronically controlled throttles this could result in a fuel pump normally valved partly closed being valved completely open.

In other instances a surge of power in the reverse direction of normal DC power can simply burn out a sub-system, or confuse it so it does not work in the normal sense.

So - if you can help my ignorance with answers to some uneducated questions, it will be appreciated...
For this (sequence of events) to work – would the pilots have needed to place navigation into “Auto-Pilot”…or, does the plane “know” to do this, at some point?

Most times at these altitudes the aircraft would already be on autopilot or in a mode of some sort. Even when hand flying a jet most pilots will use a mode like airspeed hold or altitude hold as a labour saving device. In emergency pulling a certain strain on the controls overrides the autopilot. I imagine if there was an explosion pilots may have disconnected the autopilot by instinct, however the aircraft may not have been responding to normal control inputs after a huge power surge.

An autopilot in any case would likely cease to function after a huge power surge too.

The autopilot can be programmed to fly from one navigation waypoint to another using GPS or Inertial navigation gyroscopes, such that 20 or 30 waypoints can be pre-programmed with altitudes and co-ordinates. The waypoints are notional locations connected by notional air corridors. These airways generally start at 29,000ft and extend above at every thousand feet.

Likewise – if on “Auto-Pilot” – would the plane be following a pre-programmed flight path, or simply developing its own (flight path)?

It would follow directions inputted by pilots complying with ATC clearances from waypoint to waypoint.

Furthermore – what are the odds that you have one electrical-system explosion (causing depressurization &, I presume, loss of pilot-consciousness – or, at least, pilot control),

The term one would use is cascading system failure.

When normal flight depends on one system functioning normally and then that fails catastrophically it can tumble other systems like a row of dominos.

What I have suggested is that a diode which overheats and is forced to resist higher than normal voltages gets to a point where it can't resist any longer it can fail explosively. An explosion which might be innocuous on the ground can cause huge overpressure at high altitude. The explosion could occur in the avionics bay beneath the cockpit and start a fire which burns through the fuselage like Egyptair flight 667 which happened on the ground. A fire beneath the cockpit would make it impossible for pilots to remain in the cockpit.

Some years ago a Swissair MD11 had an electrical fire in the cockpit and came down in the sea off Newfoundland. It may sound improbable to you but everything about heavier than air flight seemed improbable 100 years ago.

followed by a virtually-simultaneous electrical-system explosion…
that sends a surge disabling “the aircraft systems”, and

Starts with a surge at the instant that the diode fails...

…immediately goes into a ‘climb’ – stalls – plunges – revives…and
starts flying again ‘without’ whichever “aircraft systems” it formerly…needed (or - were they...?) to...fly?

As mentioned, failure of the diode would leave electronically controlled fuel valves in the fully open position. Engines would be powered up. The climb would not be instantaneous. At 43,000ft a Boeing 777 climbs at just 100 feet per minute so to climb the last 2,000ft requires 20 minutes, but at a certain point the air is so thin that without more speed, the stall speed overtakes the cruise speed and the aircraft simply stops flying and drops like a fluttering leaf. In the process of stalling it could easily change basic direction from north to west.

If however the engines are still developing thrust, with enough altitude and provided it had not entered a spin the aircraft would just fly out of the stall and recover to basically stable flight.

By this stage, I suspect the aircraft was below 20,000ft with pilots incapacitated. I believe with engines at full thrust it slowly began to climb again from 23,000ft in the Gulf of Thailand to 29,500ft over the Indian Ocean.

Thanks for the help.

My question to you is have you ever seen someone with a car where the voltage regulator has failed and the electric windows go haywire or the indicators blink furiously?

This is no different except this was in an airliner at 5-6 miles high.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


It is reported as being from investigators to a Malaysian newspaper. I guess reports will likely be confirmed today if it's true.

The aviation engineer is Mohd Khairul Amri Selamat, 29, a Malaysian who has said on social media he had worked for a private jet charter company.

Authorities confirmed they are looking into him?


"Yes, we are looking into Mohd Khairul as well as the other passengers and crew. The focus is on anyone else who might have had aviation skills on that plane," a senior police official with knowledge of the investigations told Reuters.


link to huff post

auroraaus
reply to post by sy.gunson

 

For those of us who failed to see the use of studying trigonometry in high school, what are you getting at?

Like in this diagram:



The only way Malaysian authorities could know with primary radar (ie without a transponder signal return) that MH370 was at 45,000ft would be if they knew it was 497nm from their antenna.

For every given aircraft altitude there is a mathematical distance for the maximum point at which it can be seen before it is hidden by the horizon.

When the Malaysian authorities tell us that they knew it was 45,000ft high, really they are admitting they lied about the aircraft's position before it turned west. Does that make sense?

reply to post by sy.gunson


Thanks for the immensely plausible information and theories you have shared so far.

I am leaning towards some kind of simple accident being behind all this too. The only doubt over this angle is the 'deliberate' turning off of communication systems. We have been told the ACARS system was switched off just before the transponder.

Is it possible that a fire such as you describe could short out the systems one by one giving the impression they had been turned off?

Would the slow depressurisation and hypoxia theory also explain the erratic flying, the 'strange' sounding last voice contact and the communication systems being turned off in confusion? Is one theory a better explanation than the other?

I would like to hear your thoughts on these questions.

Think there is a news conference due in couple of minutes.

reply to post by sy.gunson


Yes!!! Graphic and layman explanation helps heaps! Thank you!

Curiouser and curiouser.

civpop
Think there is a news conference due in couple of minutes.

Nothing ever come from this news and press conferences.We knew it this :

The FBI and Interpol have been involved in the investigation from day one, Hishammuddin revealed.

A map is being waved

9.43 GMT Hishammuddin said that Malaysia would release a more detailed map of the north and south corridors which are currently being searched. He waved a copy of the map to reporters by way of a taster.

“This new phase of the search is underway. Assets have been deployed,” he said.

www.theguardian.com...

reply to post by sy.gunson

Very informative and interesting post, that certainly adds something to the argument of a serious failure within the cockpit or associated systems. I especially appreciated your reference to Egyptair flt 667 (also a Boeing 777-200, like Malaysia Airlines' flt 370) and found an informed discussion about that event HERE on The Aviation Herald website. There is some video of the event (which as you say, occurred on the ground) and also some photographs. They show the devastating results of the fire, which was determined to have most likely resulted from an electrical problem due to wiring not being fitted according to specifications. Here are two of the images. (Credit to the above website) :
Cockpit, showing original source area of fire by co-pilot's seat:


Exterior of aircraft, showing the hull was holed by the intense heat effects of the fire:

More images are available in the above-linked thread.

What is most disturbing is that while this fire occurred on the ground (on a plane with crew and passengers aboard), it could also have happened in-flight. As quoted in the investigation's report:

Accident could be related to the following probable causes:

1. Electrical fault or short circuit resulted in electrical heating of flexible hoses in the flight crew oxygen system. (Electrical Short Circuits; contact between aircraft wiring and oxygen system components may be possible if multiple wire clamps are missing or fractured or if wires are incorrectly installed).

2. Exposure to Electrical Current

(The above link is the source for the quote.)

The report does not state that this event could only occur on the ground, which leads to the deduction that such a thing might also happen in flight. The fire was very intense and beyond the capabilities of the crew to extinguish; ground-based fire crews had to put out the fire.

The write-up on that site also says:

The aircraft was found to differ from Boeing's design in that a clamp supporting the first officer's wiring to the oxygen mask light panel was missing. The wiring was not sleeved and a large loop of unsupported wire was found. The investigation determined that about 280 aircraft including all of Egyptair's Boeing 777s were delivered that way.

The flexible oxygen mask hoses were tested for conductivity, some of which were found not conductive with others found conductive.

It was found: "contact between aircraft wiring and oxygen system components may be possible if multiple wire clamps are missing or fractured or if wires are incorrectly installed."

(Bolding mine.)

They were delivered that way, meaning this non-spec wiring installation was ex-factory, not as a result of some error by maintenance personnel at a later date (post delivery)!

280 Boeing 777s were delivered without the wiring being clamped in accordance with Boeing's own specifications (ie, their design). That is very worrying, because it begs the question: did all (known) 280 aircraft of this type have the problem corrected after the Egyptair incident's investigation results were released? And did Malaysia Airlines have any of these in its fleet?

If I recall correctly from admittedly inexpert sources (ie the MSM), about 2,000 Boeing 777s are in current service world-wide. Even if the figure is a bit higher than that, it still means roughly 10% of them could have had this issue. And that's just one electrical-related issue that had very serious consequences, which could well have been catastrophic if the fire had started while the aircraft was flying.

xavi1000

civpop
Think there is a news conference due in couple of minutes.

Nothing ever come from this news and press conferences.We knew it this :

The FBI and Interpol have been involved in the investigation from day one, Hishammuddin revealed.

I think this is an attempt to shoot down criticism from china and others that other people should take over the search. It's the the Malaysians saying 'we've been working with experts from day 1 thankyou very much!

www.theguardian.com...

Here’s the full text of Hishammuddin’s opening remarks:

During the last 24 hours, the Prime Minister has spoken to the Prime Minister of Australia and the Premier of China. Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent diplomatic notes to all countries involved in the search and rescue operation.

This includes two groups: first, countries in the search corridors; and second, countries from which we are seeking assistance and expertise.

For countries in the search corridors, we are requesting radar and satellite information, as well as specific assets for the search and rescue operation. We are asking them to share their land, sea and aerial search and rescue action plans with the Rescue Co-ordination Centre here in Malaysia, so that we can co-ordinate the search effort. We have asked for regular updates, including daily reports on both search activities, and details of any information required from Malaysia.

We are not at liberty to reveal information from specific countries. As the co-ordinating authority we are gathering all information as part of the on-going search and rescue operation.

Search and rescue operations


Over the past 48 hours, Malaysia has been working on the diplomatic, technical and logistical requirements of the search for MH370. The number of countries involved in the search and rescue operation has increased to 26.

Malaysia continues to lead the overall co-ordination of the search effort. The southern corridor has been divided into two sections, according to International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) demarcations.

These demarcations were agreed by the ICAO – of which Malaysia is a council member – before MH370 went missing. Australia and Indonesia have agreed to lead search and rescue operations in their respective regions as demarcated by the ICAO.

Today, I can confirm that search and rescue operations in the northern and southern corridors have already begun.

Countries including Malaysia, Australia, China, Indonesia and Kazakhstan have already initiated search and rescue operations.

The Royal Malaysian Air Force and the Royal Malaysian Navy have deployed assets to the southern corridor. Two Malaysian ships have been deployed: the offshore patrol vessels KD Kelantan and KD Selangor. This deployment also includes a Super Lynx helicopter, which can operate from either ship.

Australia has already moved a P-3 Orion aircraft to region of the Cocos and Christmas Islands. Today, the Prime Minister of Australia confirmed that Australia will send an additional two P-3 Orions and a C-130 Hercules. A US P-8 Poseidon aircraft will be travelling to Perth today to help with the search.

Expert involvement


Malaysia has been working with international investigators and aviation authorities since day one.

Yesterday, experts from Civil Aviation Administration of China joined the investigations team.

Today, officials from the French Office of Investigations and Analysis for the Safety of Civil Aviation also joined the team. These authorities are working with Malaysia Airlines and the DCA to refine data that can help with the search.

Police investigation


On Saturday 8 March, the Royal Malaysia Police started investigations into all crew members on board MH370, including the pilot and co-pilot, as well as all ground staff handling the aircraft.

On Sunday 9 March, police officers visited the homes of the pilot and co-pilot. Officers also spoke to family members of the pilot and co-pilot.

Police visited the homes of the pilot and co-pilot again on Saturday 15 March. The pilot’s flight simulator was taken from his house with the assistance of his family. The simulator was re-assembled at police headquarters.

At this point, I would like to stress that Malaysia has been co-operating with the FBI, Interpol and other relevant international law enforcement authorities since day one.

Malaysia’s response


I would also like to address the speculation that Malaysia has held back information about MH370’s movements.

For the families, I understand that every day prolongs the anguish. I understand because Malaysia, too, is missing its sons and daughters. There were 50 Malaysians on board the plane.

Our priority has always been to find the aircraft. We would not withhold any information that could help. But we also have a responsibility not to release information until it has been verified by the international investigations team.

This responsibility is not only to the families and to the investigation, but also the search and rescue operation. It would be irresponsible to deploy substantial assets merely on the basis of unverified and uncorroborated information.

As soon as the possibility emerged that the plane had carried out an air turn back to the Straits of Malacca, we expanded our search to that area. I would like to reiterate the US investigating team’s statement about that decision: based on the information and data given by the Malaysian authorities, the US team was of the view that there were reasonable grounds for the Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side of peninsular Malaysia.

As soon as we verified and corroborated the new satellite information as to the possible last known whereabouts of the aircraft, we recalibrated our search efforts to the northern and southern corridors as announced by the Prime Minister. After my statement we will release a more detailed map of the northern and southern corridors.

Malaysia Airlines (MAS)


Malaysia Airlines has set up operations centres in both Kuala Lumpur and Beijing, to care for the families of the crew members and passengers.

MAS has allocated each family a caregiver, who will be on 24hours duty. They have sent more than 100 staff and caregivers to Beijing.

The airline gives daily briefings to the families. They provide counselling sessions. And they contact families, that have elected not to come to Malaysia, between two and three times a day.

Concluding remarks


Over the past two days, we have been recalibrating the search for MH370. It remains a significant diplomatic, technical and logistical challenge. Malaysia is encouraged by the progress made during such a short period of time. We are grateful for the response by the heads of government that we have spoken to, all of whom have expressed a commitment of assistance.

With support from our many international partners, this new phase of the search is underway. Assets are being deployed, and search and rescue operations have begun. I wish to thank our partners from around the world for their continued support.

16m ago

Slightly updated maps of the north and south corridors, if anyone can post pics, I don't seem to be able to.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

DrHammondStoat
Slightly updated maps of the north and south corridors, if anyone can post pics, I don't seem to be able to.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

Bottom part of the Northern corridor is not that far from Nanming.

jmaguire1977

DrHammondStoat
Slightly updated maps of the north and south corridors, if anyone can post pics, I don't seem to be able to.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

Bottom part of the Northern corridor is not that far from Nanming.

I hope it isn't in China, that would cause a few issues!

reply to post by Splodge


Thank you for taking the time to demonstrate your point! Appreciate the clear answer, now I have to think about your idea.

Malaysian police are investigating a flight engineer who was among the passengers on the missing Malaysia Airlines plane as they focus on the pilots and anyone else on board who had technical flying knowledge, a senior police official said.

The aviation engineer is Mohd Khairul Amri Selamat, 29, a Malaysian who has said on social media he had worked for a private jet charter company.

"Yes, we are looking into Mohd Khairul as well as the other passengers and crew. The focus is on anyone else who might have had aviation skills on that plane," a senior police official with knowledge of the investigations told Reuters.

Malaysian investigators are trawling through the backgrounds of the pilots, crew and ground staff who worked on the missing Boeing 777-200ER for clues as to why someone on board flew it hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of miles off course.

Link

DrHammondStoat

jmaguire1977

DrHammondStoat
Slightly updated maps of the north and south corridors, if anyone can post pics, I don't seem to be able to.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

Bottom part of the Northern corridor is not that far from Nanming.

I hope it isn't in China, that would cause a few issues!

Well it could explain the passengers. Remember if using them as collateral you have to feed over 200 of them. Where better than in their (well majority) home country. I cant really see another group having/killing the passengers for this long.