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originally posted by: 1ofthe9
There's a really good bit of recent scifi that addresses this, and I'd really recomend it to fellow thread-followers:
Blindsight by Peter Watts.
originally posted by: KilgoreTrout
I watched Professor Brian Cox's series 'Wonders of the Solar System' last night, and something that has been troubling me for a few days came to a head. What exactly does Vallee mean by 'intelligence'?
I feel that I could go before a committee of scientists and convince them that there is overwhelming evidence that the UFO phenomena exists and that it is an unrecognized, unexplained phenomenon for science, but something that I think I could prove. My personal contention is that the phenomenon is the result of an intelligence that it is a technology directed by an intelligence, and that this intelligence is capable of manipulating space and time in ways that we don't understand. I could convince a committee of my peers that the phenomenon is real, that it is physical, and that we don't understand it. I could not convince them that my speculation is correct; there may be alternative speculations. The essential conclusion I'm tending to is that the origin of the phenomenon of the intelligence is not necessarily extraterrestrial.
originally posted by: KilgoreTrout
a reply to: Autograf
It's a fair quibble. The impossibility is largely statistical. While it is likely, probable, that life exists within other galaxies, it is unlikely that they are humanoid in appearance, and given the age of the universe, the time that it took to create an inhabitable environment where life could evolve on this planet, it is statistically impossible that if humanoid life existed elsewhere that it would be anymore advanced than we were. Or if in fact other forms of life had evolved capable of achieving similar levels of intelligence and technology to us, that they would be sufficiently advanced to travel here.
originally posted by: cuckooold
If the age of the universe is 13.8 billion years, and the age of life on Earth is 3.8 billion years, how does that render it statistically impossible that there are other humanoid species in this universe with the ability to travel to this planet?
originally posted by: corsair00
What can I say, there aren't many people out there that have a fascination with UFOs and Jacques Vallee. But as long as we all realize that this thread turned into the Unofficial Facebook Fanpage of Jacques Vallee 30 or so pages back. It's a place for us to come and hang out with like-minded people.
So for those scratching their heads wondering why people are still "at it", just know this is mostly just social and intellectual interaction in a lonely and confusing world!
originally posted by: KilgoreTrout
originally posted by: cuckooold
If the age of the universe is 13.8 billion years, and the age of life on Earth is 3.8 billion years, how does that render it statistically impossible that there are other humanoid species in this universe with the ability to travel to this planet?
That isn't an easy question to answer succinctly, especially given my lack of mathematical skills, however, there is a limited probability of technologically intelligent life on other planets which combines with an even greater unlikelihood of humanoid life forms elsewhere in the universe. So while it is possible that life has evolved to be intelligent and technologically capable elsewhere in the universe, it is highly unlikely that those lifeforms would in any way resemble us. While we are the product, and subject to the laws, of the macro environment of the universe, which could, in all probability include other planets capable of sustaining life, the micro environment of each of those planets is unlikely to be sufficiently enough like that of Earth to cause life to emerge and evolve in the same pattern as it is here on Earth.
Personally, if I was to interject my own opinion into this, I would also hazard that given the death and rebirth cycle of stars, and that we are, primarily, carbon based life forms, that it took many stars to go supernova, forming nebula from the subsequent implosion rebound before the conditions were sufficiently optimised to promote life as we know it (Jim ). Our sun may have only formed 5 billion years ago, but it's lineage, the material from which it, and we, are composed, goes back to the very beginning of the universe. It seems possible, to me, that it took the full 15 billion years to reach the point that we are at now. If that is the case, while life may have progressed parallel to ours elsewhere, though subject to differing environmental demands and therefore adapting differently, I strongly doubt that they are in any way more advanced than we are and therefore capable of paying us visits physically. I remain somewhat open minded about other possibilities since my imagination can conjure up a variety of alternative ways in which life could emerge under various parametres, but that is not what you pulled me up on.
Otherwise, I could point you towards Drake's Equation, though much disputed still valid, but then I would have to try and explain mathematics that are way beyond my level of elucidation. I am a woman of words not numbers.
Of course, long and short, I do not know in any definitive sense, nor does anyone else much better qualified that I, but I have explored the matter to my own satisfaction and come to an opinion that I can acclimatise to. Which is all any of us can do...at this stage.
originally posted by: JadeStar
On the likelihood of another advanced technological species resembling us you are absolute right. That is highly unlikely.
originally posted by: JadeStar
On the likelihood that we are somehow first or the most advanced life in the Galaxy you are almost certainly wrong given what we know about the ages of hundreds of other star systems.
originally posted by: JadeStar
On the Drake Equation, it is often misunderstood by laypeople. It was -never- designed to give a definitive answer but rather as a way of defining the problem of estimating what we'd need to know to increase our likelihood of detecting other technological civilizations and designing experiments to address its factors.
Although written as an equation, Drake's formulation is not particularly useful for computing an explicit value of N. The equation assumes that every factor is equally important; there are no exponentials, no powers, no power laws, no logarithms, etc.[9] Also, the last four parameters, f_[\ell], f_i, f_c, and L , are not known and are very hard to estimate, with values ranging over many orders of magnitude (see criticism). Therefore, the SETI League states that the importance of the Drake equation is not in the solving, but rather in the contemplation.[1] It may be more useful to think of it as a series of questions framed as a numbers game.[8][10] The equation is quite useful for its intended application, which is to summarize all the various concepts which scientists must contemplate when considering the question of life elsewhere,[1] and gives the question of life elsewhere a basis for scientific analysis. The Drake equation is a statement that stimulates intellectual curiosity about the universe around us, for helping us to understand that life as we know it is the end product of a natural, cosmic evolution, and for helping us realize how much we are a part of that universe.[11] What the equation and the search for life has done is focus science on some of the other questions about life in the universe, specifically abiogenesis, the development of multi-cellular life and the development of intelligence itself.[12]
originally posted by: KilgoreTrout
originally posted by: JadeStar
On the likelihood of another advanced technological species resembling us you are absolute right. That is highly unlikely.
That was the context I was using it in based on my original point that it is statistically impossible that we are being visited by humanoid 'extraterrestrial' that cuckooold had pulled me up on. It does however involve far too much mathematics for me to understand entirely which is why I have been seeking out other ways of explaining it to myself as I pointed out, and on the following basis
originally posted by: cuckooold
Assuming what I've said has any basis in reality, there's no reason not to look at the scenario I have pictured, and apply it to another civilisation elsewhere in the galaxy. This is assuming a civilisation at a roughly similar stage of development. What about a highly advanced one? What capabilities might they possess?