Volcano Watch 2014

New radar images of the area show more surface rifts.
(Not much in the way of lava though, yet.)

www.ruv.is...




M.

a reply to: muzzy
that graph I mentioned, showing how the earthquake intensify during the night, or decrease during the day, depending which way you look at it, and how the big quakes generally happen in the daytime, all changed since the first eruption on 29th Aug at 00:02 (volcano icon marks that)

click on image for larger version, opens in new tab

Deformation event
icelandreview.com...

Seismologist Kristín Jónsdóttir at the Icelandic Met Office told ruv.is that the depression is so deep that it appears through the icecap. It’s breaking the glacier’s edge. The earth itself is sinking, not the glacier.

“It’s a deformation event we’ve been observing since August 16, the [tectonic] plates are moving apart. Then we see a depression appear. Þingvellir is an example of a depression—naturally a very big depression,” Kristín stated.

“It means that the [volcanic] fissure could extend to the south and stretch below the glacier. If magma surfaces below the glacier, there’s a risk of flooding, ash production and explosions,” she added.

M.

This is the Civil Protection website for the region.

avd.is...
www.almannavarnir.is...

(Just an FYI for archival purposes later on. AKA things encountered along the way.)

M.

Update!:
www.ruv.is...

Scientists advised to leave blowout Lava
First published: 03/09/2014 15:30, Last updated: 03/09/2014 16:04
Categories: VolcanoThe Holuhraun lava eruption (picture: Armann Hoskuldsson)
The blowout lava lava eruption (picture: Armann Höskuldsson)

Geologists working near the blowout lava eruption north of Vatnajokull have been called back, as increased volcanic tremor has been detected in the vicinity. GPS measurements show that 'the magma intrusion has increased since the Beginning of the current eruption and a Rift Valley has is formed.

I wish this web/news site would update with more information in a timely manner.
M.

a reply to: Moshpet
thanks for the link, that must be the site that blurred image of the eruption location came from.
that little cone shown is at 64.823798°, -16.873300° for those with Google Earth
it is about 5.34km south of the main lava eruption, so well within the scope of breaking through (The current eruptive fissure is about 1.5 km in length, positioned about 4.5 km from the ice margin of Dyngjujökull.)

Sounds like this could get messy

Water droplet threatens volcano cam watchers

12:45 pm MST



It's ferocious!

On the upside it should evaporate/etc and get out of our way eventually.

Cam 2 is pretty much fogged out currently.

Iceland time:

Current Time: Sep 3, 2014 at 6:58:38 PM

Sunrise Today: 6:16 AM↑ 71° East
Sunset Today: 8:37 PM↑ 289° West

Moonrise Today: 5:23 PM↑ 138° Southeast
Moonset Today: 11:42 PM↑ 223° Southwest

Daylight Hours: 14 hours, 21 minutes (-6m 29s)

Another hour plus of light left in the day there.
Then it is hope for a good show in the dark.

M.


This popped up on Twitter
www.icelandmag.com...
But the other cam it lists vedur2.mogt.is... does not ever seem to be functional.
(Slow news day for them I guess?)

M.

This is troubling I thought it was settling down yesterday...
Seismic Crisis & Eruption

The eruptive activity at the Holorhaun fissure has remained stable, but ongoing deformation, although slower now, continues to worry scientists monitoring the events.
The output of lava has been estimated to be around 150 cubic meters per second, and the lca flows continue to expand mainly to the ENE, towards the Jökulsá á Fjöllum river. The surface of land covered by the lava flows was reached 7.2 km2.
However, GPS and radar measurements indicate that more lava is being intruded into the dyke at depth than what is erupted at the surface. It is feared that new fissures open, or that the existing one might become longer, and possibly open under the ice cap. In that case, significant ash plumes and floods would be generated as magma would react violently with ice and water.

Important changes seem to be under way. The fissure eruption with its spectacular lava emission at the surface still continues, but has decreased a lot since the first two days.
At the same time, earthquake and deformation activity that had decreased yesterday have picked up again. This is likely because the internal pressure is no longer efficiently released and intruding magma no longer erupted at the same rate as added underground.
The scenario of a new eruption along new fissures, possibly under the ice, or even at Bárdarbunga or Asjka volcanoes, is considered a possible scenario.

Small explosions were reported to have occurred in an area north of the glacier, but it is unclear what they were caused by. A possibility includes phreatic (purely steam-driven) or phreatomagmatic (magma directly in contact with water) explosions as magma (or surface lava flows) meets and heats up wet sediments.
As lava from the ongoing Holuhraun eruption continues to flow towards the nearby glacial river Jökulsá á Fjöllum, Iceland's second largest river from Vatnajökull, and only approx. 6 km away yesterday, the interaction of lava flows with the river water will likely generate powerful steam explosions that can release dangerous gases.

Sulphur O2 data of the region:

sampo.fmi.fi...



If this goes VEI 6-7, I think this is one reason I do not think the death tolls would be as bad as the Year without a Summer, we can track where the gasses (and the levels) are going. Unlike the that era, we have the technology to know when the gasses may be at dangerous levels. The largest problem will be if mask distribution & or temp evacuations are limited.

Though it remains to be seen.
M.

ETA
Here is another youtube feed for folks with cam issues. (Inane chat too.)
www.youtube.com...=14388

.

The droplet is gone, though it looks like rain down at the the rift area.

M.

Volcano Cafe has an image that seems to indicate the caldera ring is getting a beating from the quakes.

Story/Article:

volcanocafe.wordpress.com...



M.


www.ruv.is...

The lava which have arisen from the eruption of lava in the hole has become nine square kilometers and would therefore cover all Grafarvogur - from Gullinbru and over Korpúlstaðaveg. Detention appears that it might leak out in Jokulsa soon.

This is so exciting! This is a once-in-a-lifetime type event. I only hope that whatever fireworks get set off, we can minimize the disruption unlike what has happened in the past.

But we are watching the possible formation of a new rift valley, a possible long-term fissure eruption event, and may see a caldera explosive eruption ... all within weeks to months of each other and all in one of the few places on earth so used to dealing with this that lose of life, if any, to the actual events will be minimal is there is any. Any loss of life will be to secondary effects most likely, and hopefully, as I said, we can avoid most of those through technology and adaption.

Evidently this magma dike is really shallow:

www.ruv.is...

Dyke at a depth of less than scientists have ever seen and it is more likely the eruption under a glacier, says Björn Oddsson, a geologist with Almannvarnardeild. He says that the hazard will be reviewed if the failure to explain the turmoil in today or if he declines.

(I think also that this news site is dribbling out information.)

M.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

NASA ALI imagery of the Holuhraun fissure, near Bardarbunga, September 2, 2014 at 21:18 UTC

volcanodetect.blogspot.com...

First high resolution satellite imagery of the Holuhraun fissure, seen in NASA ALI imagery. Below are Red, Green and Blue composites of the different ALI channels. These are 30 m resolution data in the Shorty Wave Infrared. Note from the RGB composite of channels 7, 6 and 5 that the south-west portion of the fissure shows up with the strongest return signals. As this is at shorter wavelengths, then this part of the fissure is likely the most thermal active at the time of the overpass.

M.

Currently the fissure is rain wrapped, and we have about 45 minutes of light before dusk becomes night.
2:02 pm MST 9-3-2014



Hopefully tonight doesn't have the cams wonking out all the time.

M.

Cam 2
2:50 MP MST


Cam 1



Now that it is getting darker, the lava flow is more visible in front of the fissure.

Still waiting on updates as to todays earlier concerns about magma under the icefields.

M.

ETA

www.ruv.is...

Closed to all traffic
First published: 03/09/2014 20:31, Last updated: 03/09/2014 20:36
Categories: National , Environment , BardarbungaGosstöðvarnar í dag. Myndin er tekin úr flugi TF - SIF.
Mynd: Jarðvísindastofnun / Þórdís Högnadóttir
Eruption site today. The picture is taken from the flight TF - SIF. Photo: Earth Science / Amy Högnadóttir

Commissioner of Húsavík has decided in light of unrest in the eruption site today to block all further traffic into the area north of Vatnajökull. Media and researchers have so far had limited access to the site, subject to certain conditions.

According to a notice from the Department on civil defense. It says that while these uncertainties are not considered appropriate to allow others into the area and also have installed the internal closure of the road at 910 Vaðöldu.

Calculations ies show that more magma flows into the corridor and finds out from him in the eruption lava cracks in the blowout. It creates pressure and scientists worry that the Fissure could extend up to the glacier.

I sense frustrated scientists ahead.

avd.is...
A restatement of the closure and a picture of the huts the scientists use near Askja.






Raindrop as SFX

Cam 1 3:42pm MST

This is really exciting event. New rift valleys don't form every day, and they often create new volcanoes. Iceland is already full of rift valleys as Eurasian plate and North American plate separate from each other.

One example is Þingvellir, which is one of the most popular tourist attractions in Iceland. Great example of rift valley.


Back to Bárðarbunga, the earthquake activity is very low right now, compared to previous days. One of most quiet days during this event. Could be calm before the storm, as I have said earlier, this is long-time event. Expect this to last for months. Askja fissure swarm is the most active quake spot right now, but the northward movement has slowed down. This swarm is directly under the dormant volcano Herðubreið.

Reduces gosóróa the blowout Lava
First published: 03/09/2014 21:51, Last updated: 03/09/2014 21:51
www.ruv.is...

Has slowed gosóróa the blowout Lava last hour, according to the Meteorological Institute. The turmoil that started in the afternoon today, is still present. Lara Ómarsdóttir who flew over the area today, says a lot of cracks in the ground and some parts are extensively fall on the ground.

I'm not so sure myself.


M.

Related bit
www.ruv.is...

Volcanic tremor near the Holuhraun eruption has decreased in the last two hours, according to the Icelandic Met Office. An evacuation was ordered earlier today, after a sharp increase in the tremor, leading to fears that a subglacial eruption was imminent.

Good photo gallery here icelandnews.is...

5:20 pm MST 9-3-2014


It looks more impressive due to the rain drop.
Fairly still winds at the moment help to backlight the smoke.

Cam 2
5:09pm MST


Not so impressive.

M.

Since the appropriate Icelandic authorities have today publicly mentioned the possibility of a large, acidic and explosive eruption at Bardarbunga, we now feel free to inform you that this possibility has been discussed by the Dragons, behind closed doors, for well over a week. The key information comes from this official IMO graphic:

The first premise is that earthquakes do not occur in molten rock. Nor do they form a clearly visible ring shape such as the above except under one circumstance – they do so around a body of liquid, in this case magma. A conservative estimate places the size of this body of magma at 8 km diameter, height unknown but most likely on the order of 3 – 6 km, depth also unknown but relatively shallow. Using simple geometry, 4 x Pi x r^3 / 3 yields a volume of ~250 cubic kilometres for a sphere, but for our flattened body something on the order of 125 – 140 cu km.

The important question is not how much magma there is but rather how much of this magma is eruptible. The answer must be “not that large a fraction” as otherwise, Bardarbunga would most likely already have exploded. At this stage a guess would be no more than perhaps 10% or some 10 – 15 km^3.

Source