Religion to Disappear By 2041 Claims New Study

ProfessorChaos
reply to post by Grimpachi

 

Well, most likely I'll still be around, so faith in a deity won't be completely gone.

I also have kids, and they've been brought up to believe in a God, so there's 4 people just through me; what about the rest of the world?

Seems like this guy is seeing the future through his own brand of rose-colored glasses.

edit on 10/3/2013 by ProfessorChaos because: Just waking up typo edit

Yes the point you are making is actually outlined in the OP. Some believe the religious will remain the majority simply because of breeding more however as discussed in the article the sentiments are that current trends will still hold true in the future where more and more people stop believing in deitys.

As I said already I think the US will follow suit in the trend but it may take longer than other countries.

Remember this article isn't saying religion will be dead it will just become a minority.

It's odd that, according to actual demographic studies (such as the Pew Forum's,) the number of atheists in America hasn't really grown that much in the past several decades, staying at about 1.5% of the population. They've just become louder and more visible.

It's also odd that, last year, Nigel Barber predicted that atheism would "defeat" religion in 2038. Sounds like wishful thinking and moving goal posts on his part.

Grimpachi

ProfessorChaos
reply to post by Grimpachi

 

Well, most likely I'll still be around, so faith in a deity won't be completely gone.

I also have kids, and they've been brought up to believe in a God, so there's 4 people just through me; what about the rest of the world?

Seems like this guy is seeing the future through his own brand of rose-colored glasses.

edit on 10/3/2013 by ProfessorChaos because: Just waking up typo edit

Yes the point you are making is actually outlined in the OP. Some believe the religious will remain the majority simply because of breeding more however as discussed in the article the sentiments are that current trends will still hold true in the future where more and more people stop believing in deitys.

As I said already I think the US will follow suit in the trend but it may take longer than other countries.

Remember this article isn't saying religion will be dead it will just become a minority.

I still feel that this is wishful thinking on the part of Atheists. Think about it for a moment, and try to imagine Islam disappearing in the next 28 years, not only is it not likely, the idea is almost laughable.

The only places in which religion will become the minority are the same places in which it is already heading that way, which would primarily include high ranking government positions, and the higher education seats throughout the world. Other than that, it isn't going anywhere, especially within the next 28 years.

In Indonesia you can be jailed and fined $10,000 for non-believing
link

but even so

Atheism appears to be growing in Indonesia, with nearly 1,000 followers on Twitter for a group called Indonesian Atheists. Most of the members are too afraid to expose themselves, a fact which underlining the existing intolerance towards “non-believers”.

And there are other places in the world where it’s just as risky or even more so to be an atheist and I have seen stories of American atheist who are disowned by family and shunned by their communities – this kind of thing is going to make working out how many “non-believers” there are a bit tricky

reply to post by ProfessorChaos


You are the second person in this thread that has brought up Islam, well they said Muslim. Since I already addressed that and pointed out the OP and source article addressed that it makes me wonder if you read past the title before commenting.

The point you are making is true but it has already been covered and doesn't conflict with the OP.

While I think 2041 is a little early I do agree it will go in a few generations and boy I welcome it.
It doesn't mean people will stop believing in God but I think it will be a more personal experience..like it should be.
When this happens the true age of reason will dawn and we will start working together more and reach for the stars.

adjensen
It's odd that, according to actual demographic studies (such as the Pew Forum's,) the number of atheists in America hasn't really grown that much in the past several decades, staying at about 1.5% of the population. They've just become louder and more visible.
.

I didn't quote the 2038 because it's already in the OP. Ceck the second link.

Anyway I will agree that atheists have become as you put it louder and more visible. Even when I was growing up if you didn't hide that you were atheist there were repercussions. Still are just at a much lesser extent here in the US now.

I will poit out that you pew study is only for the US it does not cover any other nation. It is also from the Pew reaserch religion project. I will need to look into them a bit more to see if they are on the up and up because every other search I have done says atheism is on the rise in the US just behind catholithism. Which maybe that study put down as unafiliated since they didn't even have a slot for atheists which would line up with what all the other studies say.

When I was in the Army they didn't have a slot for atheist so my dog tags just said no denomination or no affiliation.

Grimpachi
I will poit out that you pew study is only for the US it does not cover any other nation. It is also from the Pew reaserch religion project. I will need to look into them a bit more to see if they are on the up and up because every other search I have done says atheism is on the rise in the US just behind catholithism. Which maybe that study put down as unafiliated since they didn't even have a slot for atheists which would line up with what all the other studies say.

I looked into the methodology of the Pew Forum study when it came out, and it's pretty solid, statistically (small sample size, but big enough to be valid.) I do realize that it only covers the United States, but unless Nigel Barber wants to claim that the US is a third world nation, it demonstrates that his hypothesis is invalid.

Yes, many people confuse atheism, which, as I said, has stayed pretty consistent over the years, with "nothing in particular", which has grown significantly in the past decade or so. The former don't believe in deities, the latter simply don't associate with any given religion, the lack or presence of belief in deities not really playing a role in that.

I saw a study a while back that charted belief in God by age group over a long period of time, with the conclusion being that Americans were pretty consistent to that end -- belief in God was lowest among 18-25 year olds (or so, I don't remember the exact groupings,) but over time, that normalized. In other words, as people aged, they were increasingly likely to believe in God.

adjensen

I saw a study a while back that charted belief in God by age group over a long period of time, with the conclusion being that Americans were pretty consistent to that end -- belief in God was lowest among 18-25 year olds (or so, I don't remember the exact groupings,) but over time, that normalized. In other words, as people aged, they were increasingly likely to believe in God.

Any chance of a link to that study?

because I’m thinking it would be about the same as starting to believe in Santa Claus as you get older

reply to post by adjensen


In no way have I indicated that I think the US is 3rd world but if you look at my posts in this thread you will see what I have said pertaining to the US. In fact some other posters have put forward information on the subject. I will again point out that the PEW study does not even list the demographic for atheist so going by that none exist so no growth.

However in this article.

. Religiosity is on the decline in the U.S. and atheism is on the rise, according to a new worldwide poll.

The poll, called “The Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism,” found that the number of Americans who say they are “religious” dropped from 73 percent in 2005 (the last time the poll was conducted) to 60 percent.

At the same time, the number of Americans who say they are atheists rose, from 1 percent to 5 percent.


The poll was conducted by WIN-Gallup International and is based on interviews with 50,000 people from 57 countries and five continents. Participants were asked, “Irrespective of whether you attend a place of worship or not, would you say you are a religious person, not a religious person, or a convinced atheist?” .

Clearly that poll actually asks if a person is atheist or not where the PEW study does not.
Link

reply to post by racasan


I think it was this one, but I'm not sure -- it's been quite a while since I saw it.

Belief in God rises with age, even in atheist nations

Grimpachi
I will again point out that the PEW study does not even list the demographic for atheist so going by that none exist so no growth.

Huh? You mean this?

Clearly that poll actually asks if a person is atheist or not where the PEW study does not.

Do you have a link to the study, rather than an article about the study? Even your article points out that there are problems with the study, so I'd like to see the original numbers.

Either way, however, both of us have produced studies that show that atheism is hardly "second only to Roman Catholicism", in America it is a very small minority, whether it is 1.5% or 5%.

reply to post by adjensen


Good article and I tend to agree with everything it says. Did you read it said almost exactly what I have said. It did say atheism is on the rise in the US but at a slower rate than othe western nations.
I didn't know that atheists were already the majority in western Germany or that Russia is the only country where religion is rising but that makes sense. Same as people over 58 switching to belief that makes sense as well.

reply to post by adjensen


Sorry didn't see that I am posting from my phone. Real pain.

Anyway here is the link www.wingia.com...

Curious though not affiliated then there is one for other faiths so it makes me wonder.

.urich, 27 July 2012 — We have no opinion polling data prior to the 20th century, but according to the latest global poll released by WIN-Gallup International, a world-wide network of leading opinion pollsters, atheists are a small minority in the early years of 21st century. Only 13% say they are atheists. They are mostly concentrated in East Asia where 47% of the Chinese and 31% of the Japanese say they are atheists; and Western Europe, 14% of whose population says the same. Elsewhere sizeable majorities claim to be religious; the global average is 59%. Another sizeable group claims to be “not-religious” but stops short of defining itself as “atheist”. Their global average is 23%. .

It wasn't until the past few years that I have admitted to being atheist.

Grimpachi
Anyway here is the link www.wingia.com...

Thanks for the link.

The major flaw that jumps out at me is that the Pew Forum study allowed people to self-identify as agnostics, that study does not appear to have given people the option, and the terms "I am religious", "I am not religious" are rather ambiguous -- they are rather subjective phrases. For me, I am religious, because I go to weekly Mass, pray daily and study religion, but if I was to compare myself to a priest, monk, nun or some of my friends, I'm not all that religious.

So I think that some of the 5% atheist declaration may be spill over from agnostics who would normally declare themselves to be agnostic, but fall enough on the side of not believing in deities that saying "I am not religious" is not seen as being a sufficient declaration of their position. That's just speculation, though.

reply to post by adjensen


Well you know agnostics can Lear either way. In my personal experience that is how I used to self identify people tend to leave you alone that way. I think the majority of atheists are agnostic about it. I do not claim to know for certain.

True story, when I was with at the hospital with my father and he was pretty much brain dead from a stroke a Chaplin came in to offer counseling and asked if I would pray with him. I told him nicely that neither my father nor I belonged to any faith. He said well at least your agnostic and believe in something then proceeded to pray where I sat quietly and kind of played along.

It was nothing to fuss over and I knew his intentions were good but it made me think about it months later about how people assume things that fit inline with their preconceptions. It happens from all sides.

Anyway I used to use agnostic as a way to avoid others preconceptions I am pretty sure others have as well.

reply to post by Grimpachi


When people ask me, I say "I am considering." It's true. I'm always considering new possibilities and angles. But I don't often discuss my conclusions except with trusted friends. It is far too delicate a topic to just throw around at parties.

Thanks for this

adjensen
reply to post by racasan

 

I think it was this one, but I'm not sure -- it's been quite a while since I saw it.

Belief in God rises with age, even in atheist nations

But I have some doubts

“Looking at differences among age groups, the largest increases in belief in God most often occur among those 58 years of age and older. This suggests that belief in God is especially likely to increase among the oldest groups, perhaps in response to the increasing anticipation of mortality,”

Or
When the poll was taken people 58 years of age and older where already religious and had always been that way and that youngsters are just not getting into the religion thing and I’m not seeing how they get ‘youngster are acquiring religion as they get older’ from this study?
Older generations being religious and the younger generation not being so is in line with what the British are seeing

And even if the young are getting a belief in god that doesn’t mean it’s the bible or quran god, it could be some sort of deistic god for example

reply to post by racasan


You might have missed this, but the study cited there was actually an aggregate of three surveys done over almost 30 years, so they were able to see that atheism diminished as people aged -- a 25 year old in the first survey would be over 50 in the last, and they could see that the age group statistics from the first survey were consistent with with the last, in that 25 years olds were (just throwing out a number) 20% atheists in the first survey and 20% atheists in the last survey of 25 year olds, but because of the time difference, the 25 year olds from the first survey were in their 50s in the last one, and their rate of atheism (again, just making up a number because I'm too lazy to go look) was 10%, indicating that people tend to abandon atheism as they age.

Which makes sense, of course -- who among us didn't think, when we were 18, that we were going to live forever and could do everything on our own, but as we grew in age and experience, didn't begin to realize that wasn't the case?

It's more like people fearing death as they get older and being enticed and/or induced by those propagating tales of an 'afterlife' and nothing more.