China for World super power in next 40 years

Originally posted by Daedalus3

Originally posted by W4rl0rD

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Russia is not wary of china bu the reverse is true...China was even suspected to be preparing to use nukes premptively on Russian troops in case of a war..Now thats a DEFINITE sign of an inferiorty complex.

You see my friend,INDIA is wary of CHINA,while CHINA does not think of INDIA as a threat.Speak for yourself.

What does that have to do with your quote??

And I suppose China is not wary of Japan also?

And answering COWlan, yes that was from 30 yrs ago..are you saying that chinese nuke policy towards invading armies has changed...?

[edit on 13-12-2004 by Daedalus3]

Yes, China has new nuclear doctrines where it will never fire on a country without nuclear weapons and will only fire when we have suffered from the damage of a nuclear bomb launched by another country.

LMAO!

I really wish you were in power in China.

Originally posted by W4rl0rD
You see my friend,INDIA is wary of CHINA,while CHINA does not think of INDIA as a threat.Speak for yourself.

Then why the formation of the India-specific WZC doctrine for PLA?

And anyway, Cowlan, I have found nowhere that China employs a no-first use policy, either in official pronouncements, doctrine, or force structure.

Well then your wrong my friend and may I ask what is WZS? I have never heard of such a phrase, enlighten me?

CMAL3...

The United States of America is probably one of the greatest countries on earth, I don't think China can ever replace the US as a superpower. One reasonly mainly freedom: we have far more freedom than the chinese people, the china government even controls on what they watch. Freedom is the blood that runs through the veins of the United States of America, which will keep us as a great superpower.

...? Freedom doesnt help a contry at all when it comes to power, you have no idea what your ralkin about, we dont even have that much freedom here, you may not realize this but the USA is falling apart in its econoomy and Rule, Definately, The US will fall very soon to china...

Eh, boy, now that has got to be the second most ridiculous claim I've ever seen written on these boards.

And uhhh, yes, freedom is one of the key things that made this country so powerful.

[edit on 23-1-2005 by Broadsword20068]

[edit on 23-1-2005 by Broadsword20068]

Originally posted by Transmission Deployment
CMAL3...

The United States of America is probably one of the greatest countries on earth, I don't think China can ever replace the US as a superpower. One reasonly mainly freedom: we have far more freedom than the chinese people, the china government even controls on what they watch. Freedom is the blood that runs through the veins of the United States of America, which will keep us as a great superpower.

...? Freedom doesnt help a contry at all when it comes to power, you have no idea what your ralkin about, we dont even have that much freedom here, you may not realize this but the USA is falling apart in its econoomy and Rule, Definately, The US will fall very soon to china...

Well, in reality we have a hell of allot more freedoms and security then most any country. Our government doesn’t filter our internet, radio, newspapers, TV, and so on. If you do something hanus expect to be punished or criticized for your actions. You are probably one of those people that read on the internet about people’s freedoms being taken away and jump on that ignorant bandwagon. In reality, we are almost totally free... There are some things that need to stay restricted to allow order and peace. And if you are trying to promote that china has even a fraction of the freedoms we have you are a complete fool. From everyone that I have known from china, from all the seemingly unbiased things i have read I, and many others have concluded that china is almost an un-governed hell.

That being said china does have the potential to match our power. It will be hard though as seeing that most would start living like Westerners and in turn that would dissolve most of the low-class manufacturing population. This would in turn drive up costs and hurt them. They also have a huge demand for resources and even today they are being backordered for certain resources. They are literally being chocked alive. Just thing about what is going to happen when a few key resources start dwindling...

You also have to acknowledge the fact that many in the West and S.E. Asia will not sit by idly and watch them gain uncontainable power... Expect something shocking to happen in the next decade or two...

Originally posted by Hawkssss
It is a known fact that Americans have the least knowledge about the rest of world. This is a universally known fact and we can stop at that

Well isnt generally self suffiency one cause for this, why look behind fence if you got enough playground on your own? Isnt that what Chinese power eventually will be, they got so big markets inside country that they can self suffiently provide quality content and by so put aside US provided content. Downside of this type of effect is country left open for propaganda by its own goverment.

Still your stupid if think that make educated people in US less effient than any other country, but i agree US politics seem very narrow minded. You could easily make conclusions that its meant to be so, every coutnry just run their own interests and by so might seem they make always wrong decisions, while those are to em mostly favor, even if it just effect small party of people, but its their people.

And Hawkess, China does what it does, but its still general way much behind any western country, EU is at the moment world largest economy, EU is biggest trade partner with China (consist invidual countrys). 10% of Chinese might enjoy western economy, to turn that even 50% is hell a path to take, i doubt those who are now rich in China throw money at the less fortunate, more likely the cap between these groups just get bigger. How long do you think China stay interesting investment area if salarys raise rabidly? Then companys just move their assembly lines to second country and thats the fast phase economy we live today world, might be africa next place to bump, even thou i agree Chinese educated people + massive cheap labor force gave em great economic leap that last who knows how long.

Originally posted by Observer83
How long do you think China stay interesting investment area if salarys raise rabidly? Then companys just move their assembly lines to second country and thats the fast phase economy we live today world, might be africa next place to bump,

In fact, there is no other place in the world can generate massive production as China does. Endless labor resources, massive inner land space and rapidly developed business center.

Once manufacture move here, stay here. Even the salary increase finally, there is not other place that have the abiligy to produce lots stuff to support the huge China market. In many ways and in many industries, the market in China expenentially increase and will overnumber American or European market very soon. Do you think you can setup a factory in Africa to produce enough stuff for Chinese market? and also you have to think about distance for transportation. It is just impossible to move the majority of manufactuer away from China anymore. (of course, some of them might move).
First manufacturer, then R&D center, then hi-tech innovation. Same circle how America replaced British and Europe.

Well I dunno about "massive inner land space." The United States has more liveable land space than China does; most of China is mountains.

Originally posted by Broadsword20068
Well I dunno about "massive inner land space." The United States has more liveable land space than China does; most of China is mountains.

Of course, I agree that, but problem is that American can afford the will to live like most Chinese? no, absolutely not. That means labor costs too high in America, so,many american like to get food stamp rather than working as 5 dollar/hour. Why? They think: not worth it.

But guess what, that will cause huge society deficit and generate a large mount of stupid and lazy American. Later when they have to work as 5 dollar/hour, there will be no such job in America anymore cause the whole industry has been moved to out of America already.

That is exactly what is happening.


[edit on 24-1-2005 by proteinx]

Originally posted by proteinx
In fact, there is no other place in the world can generate massive production as China does. Endless labor resources, massive inner land space and rapidly developed business center.

Once manufacture move here, stay here. Even the salary increase finally, there is not other place that have the abiligy to produce lots stuff to support the huge China market. In many ways and in many industries, the market in China expenentially increase and will overnumber American or European market very soon. Do you think you can setup a factory in Africa to produce enough stuff for Chinese market? and also you have to think about distance for transportation. It is just impossible to move the majority of manufactuer away from China anymore. (of course, some of them might move).
First manufacturer, then R&D center, then hi-tech innovation. Same circle how America replaced British and Europe.

Ok i chose bad example africa, but theres dozens of ways to effect Chinas growth if you have factories that need 100-1000 people to run and they do same as partial manyally made chinese plants with 5000-10000 workers. Also i should have said that Africa might become EU's next labor market, while US uses central and south america, there really isnt worry about work force if you look it that way, more likely it will come to that who got better education, inventions, effient assembly lines, factorys etc. Currently most of Chinese assembly lines get mostly advanced pieces imported from Japan, S-Korea, EU, US, but i cant disagree their gaining on us. Also China isnt self suffient in energy market terms, of course atm none want to sufficate country that give great benefits to all, think about licenses all the big corporations put on Chinese products example DVD player $20 per product license expense to be able sell it to EU, US, Japan market, to clarify current DVD players cost about $60. Truth is that Chinas growth makes rich people even more rich while worker class have to cut their salarys or be booted out for non-cooperative.

But this topic sure has "in 40 years" so if current line continue China sure will be strong economical power, its even today. But it might not be able to kill other country economys like some descriped, that American would in future work for $5/h, i can say to that fellow "education" that wont lose its value. US for example for sure start to put even stronger sanctions in future to control money flow to asia.

EU's main future problem currently is high amount of elder people leaving work force while smaller group of young people replace em, this cause a lot of pressures, but its patched by hiring labor from other countrys and who wouldnt go work for better salary? Also EU accept more member states and there comes more extra labor + while border grow EU central can control its own markets and like US may put sanctions to Chinese products. Sure theres negative effects too, by fast grow, but think about Russia as EU's honor member, cause i doubt it will ever join EU formerly. Russia will probably work as EU's vital energy market until other forms of energy source than fossile been effectively adapted. And again EU has economy to fight deals for their side.

I just want to point out theres forces that can same way effect China market as China can effect theirs. Its like pulling a robe and innovations will be big part of it as always to turn tides.

China counted more than 50% of the world GDP from 2,000 years ago to less then 160 years ago. They were the only super power then. It's quite understandable they could found the way home after lost. TaiWan, Hong Kong, Singapore, they are all Chinese. They are developed, why can not the big boy?
China is different from Africa, which the former want to recovery, the other want a new born. Meaningless to mix them up.

Ok i chose bad example africa, but theres dozens of ways to effect Chinas growth if you have factories that need 100-1000 people to run and they do same as partial manyally made chinese plants with 5000-10000 workers. Also i should have said that Africa might become EU's next labor market, while US uses central and south america, there really isnt worry about work force if you look it that way, more likely it will come to that who got better education, inventions, effient assembly lines, factorys etc. Currently most of Chinese assembly lines get mostly advanced pieces imported from Japan, S-Korea, EU, US, but i cant disagree their gaining on us. Also China isnt self suffient in energy market terms, of course atm none want to sufficate country that give great benefits to all, think about licenses all the big corporations put on Chinese products example DVD player $20 per product license expense to be able sell it to EU, US, Japan market, to clarify current DVD players cost about $60. Truth is that Chinas growth makes rich people even more rich while worker class have to cut their salarys or be booted out for non-cooperative.

I have to agree that expanded EU is a big competitor for both USA and China, not only the labor market but also the technology. But I have to remind you several things with respect to your example about DVD.

As I said, many and more and more China new elite leaders from central government to the local office mostly hold PhD or similar degrees in education from western countries, You cannot find any other government in this world put so much expectation for technogoly and science. DVD was mainly developed in last 5 years, many DVD manufacturer have realized that and Chinese government have realized that too, have you ever heard EVD or these thing like that in China? It is not surprise in few years, DVD will be wiped off from China market and replaced by their own EVD. A similar issue is the fight for Wi-Fi standard between China and USA. And Chinese newly developed CPU....etc. Plus, if you take look at newspaper, A Chinese hi-tech network company called Huawei recently get huge contract to build the G3 network for Holland. Anyway, my point is, China is quickly shift to the country with both cheap production ability and innovation abiltiy and huge domestic market. I personally think Korea and Japan has no such potential as China has because they have much limited domestic market, think about cell phone and PC.

Regarding EU, I also have a very strong suspect about the potential problem regarding religion. Not even mention the problem between Christian and Catholic, If EU goes further to include Turkey, or other previous soviet-union sattelite countries, there are lots muslins will be deeply involved into EU daily affair . It is quite dangerous frankly speaking. I remembered a while ago an article on business week talking about the comparison between EU and China, put lots energy to descible this issue. Another problem EU have is: the constrain of NATO. As long as NATO still dominate EU defense, I donot think EU can compete too much with USA-----after all, these days, economy is deeply related to national defense, most technology can swift from one to other.


Regarding America, you know what, as long as that country is hajacked by few CEOs, that country care nothing about normal American and they will continue fool around the rednecks. If China can provide same huge profit and market for them, they donot really care the headquarter of the company will be in Beijing or in NewYork. Many people including great economist project the down turn of America in next 20 years. I personally donot think USA is hopeful as long as current situation goes on, but of course, it takes time and it happens quitely until suddenly normal American found out their leader declare Jesus right now is in China.


[edit on 25-1-2005 by proteinx]

China to replace US as No 1 Japan trading partner
Slowly slowly, one by one...

Originally posted by proteinx

I have to agree that expanded EU is a big competitor for both USA and China, not only the labor market but also the technology. But I have to remind you several things with respect to your example about DVD.

As I said, many and more and more China new elite leaders from central government to the local office mostly hold PhD or similar degrees in education from western countries, You cannot find any other government in this world put so much expectation for technogoly and science. DVD was mainly developed in last 5 years, many DVD manufacturer have realized that and Chinese government have realized that too, have you ever heard EVD or these thing like that in China? It is not surprise in few years, DVD will be wiped off from China market and replaced by their own EVD. A similar issue is the fight for Wi-Fi standard between China and USA. And Chinese newly developed CPU....etc. Plus, if you take look at newspaper, A Chinese hi-tech network company called Huawei recently get huge contract to build the G3 network for Holland. Anyway, my point is, China is quickly shift to the country with both cheap production ability and innovation abiltiy and huge domestic market. I personally think Korea and Japan has no such potential as China has because they have much limited domestic market, think about cell phone and PC.

[edit on 25-1-2005 by proteinx]

Thats the cheese, China can develop EVD to their own markets and all those who want to accept it, but there goes support from many international companys that want to license everything, so you think inside EU, US borders will be chipped any of those EVD, Blade processors or anything new that China develop rabidly? I can say for China itself those are big breaktrough as getting international corporations shackles off, still not meaning they could sell em effectively in US, EU borders. Such products will be sanctioned so harshly that selling em in these areas come too expensive. And would you buy EVD player if your current player playes only licensed DVD's? Of course theres seen many companys adding mp3, SVCD etc formats on their players, but i still doubt those hit EU, US markets cause of many companys express their feeling toward goverments. And that makes you think what is that "open markets" you hear everywhere.

I dont know about Japan its been using closed markets for generations and that has kept many of their own industrys alive, cause no fear of outside competition. Surely today needs have risen and same time salarys and all R&D expenses, so its hard to compete when elsewhere same job can be done cheaper. Actually its imposible to even start lower salarys, cause whole infrastucture would collapse as result.

S-Korea still hold means to compete with China, in smaller numbers but they wont be facing same problem similiar as Japan.

Ill end my part of this conversation by that many countrys has only preserved their hi-technology,while they should help other part of industry to compete as well. Its like climbing a tree tiger after you, that you cant really escape, or should we say "dragon". Anyway hope humanity wins.

Originally posted by Observer83

Thats the cheese, China can develop EVD to their own markets and all those who want to accept it, but there goes support from many international companys that want to license everything, so you think inside EU, US borders will be chipped any of those EVD, Blade processors or anything new that China develop rabidly? I can say for China itself those are big breaktrough as getting international corporations shackles off, still not meaning they could sell em effectively in US, EU borders. Such products will be sanctioned so harshly that selling em in these areas come too expensive. And would you buy EVD player if your current player playes only licensed DVD's? Of course theres seen many companys adding mp3, SVCD etc formats on their players, but i still doubt those hit EU, US markets cause of many companys express their feeling toward goverments. And that makes you think what is that "open markets" you hear everywhere.

Losing Chinese Market alone means a big "HIT" to any business.

I suggest you shall think from aother way: Does Hollywood want their movies be spreaded in Chinese market? yes, they want! What are they going to do? they are going to grant license to EVD. Again, the Chinese can start from price strategy to kick out DVD, after Philip lose the big "meat" of license fee for DVD, that is big hit for him.

I think observer 83 hit th enail on the head..
"in the end humanity should win"

VCDs gotta love them, get new movies two days after it was released for 10 yuan (two disc), too bad VCD resolution isn't that great but who cares then buy the rip-off DVDs 15 yuan per disc.

^^^

PIRACY ...

Piracy? Who cares, its not like its hurting CHina in any way or hurting the US in any way. The movie theatre chain in China isn't complete like the US or Canada where basically every 10 square kilometer you'll find a movie theatre. The city where I used to live in has 1.3 million people yet it only has 2 movie theatres and they don't show good movies. The movie theatre only has one showroom so they could only play one movie at a time unlike the ones in North America where basically every theatre has at least 10 showrooms. So we watch the movies on disc or on TV. Its not like they're gonna earn any movie from the box office earnings because there are only so many theatres and why spend money for the theatre if you can just own the VCD and watch it any time you like for the rest of your life?