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Originally posted by JoeP2247
World War III
It will most probably start in 2014
The death toll will be at least 10 times greater than World War II (600,000,000+)
It will be fought mainly in the China-Burma-India theater.
It will likely end in a nuclear exchange.
This is not a psychic prediction ( I have no abilities in that regard) . It is our historical pattern as a society though - and here is why I make these specific predictions.
The median time interval between a financial disaster and a major war is 6 years. It can be as short as 4 years (like the Panic of 1857 to American Civil War in 1861) or as long as 7 years (like the panic of 1907 led to the First World War in 1914). The pattern is always the same though - a financial debacle leads to war and it seems to take about 6 years for this to happen. I would speculate this time interval is related to how long it takes for the negative financial situation to fully filter down to society and erupt. I also observe that the monetary gains generated by the act of war ends the financial disaster most of the time. This pattern has been true for at least the past three hundred years of western history.
With each major war technology develops that increase our killing power by factors of about 10. For example, the introduction of the rifled musket in the 1850’s increased KIA to over 800,000 in the American Civil war - Machine guns led to 9,000,000 deaths in World War One - advances in air power killed at least 60 million people in World War II (I personally think it was over 80 million) - and so on.
Wars start where the last war was left unresolved. For example, World War Two was an almost inevitable product of the Versailles Treaty after the First World War. The theater of World War Two left most up in the air was the China-Burma-India theater which left many issues moldering.
Wars escalate to the extreme of the weaponry available to the parties. If one side is going to lose and the only weapon they have that might" escalate" to the point of winning is a nuclear weapon it will be eventually used. This is very much a Clausewitz theory of war and the United States and most modern powers do use Clausewitz as a model theorist. You could read “On War” - it is still required reading in military schools.
Mark Twain once said (paraphrasing) that if history doesn’t repeat itself, it sure rhymes.
I am curious what you guys think.
Joe
Originally posted by JoeP2247
I am curious what you guys think.
Originally posted by JoeP2247
I am curious what you guys think.
Originally posted by DestroyDestroyDestroy
reply to post by Magister
, if they detonate 100 nukes within their own borders almost every life form on earth will be wiped out.
Originally posted by DestroyDestroyDestroy
Not sure why the world would be involved in the China-Burma-India theater, but yes tensions in that area are very high and will likely boil over soon.
However, I seriously doubt we will see nuclear war.
Originally posted by FraternitasSaturni
Originally posted by DestroyDestroyDestroy
reply to post by Magister
, if they detonate 100 nukes within their own borders almost every life form on earth will be wiped out.
I think someone needs a lesson or two in radioactive decay...