North Korea await final order / Communication hotline severed

reply to post by DarKPenguiN


Iraq was a different animal.

I don't think the US would (or can) actually invade NK with ground forces. But, we wouldn't have to. This wouldn't be the aim. China will have a stake in this, and any attack on NK with ground forces must have a clearly defined objective and exit strategy that both the UN and China agree on, before troops set ground in NK. That same condition, however, won't apply to air strikes and missile strikes.

The US is pretty much in horrid shape militarily, with swiss cheese units, low recruitment and morale after 10 years of unconventional war... If this goes hot it isnt going to be "quick and easy" regardless of what our "experts" tell us.

But, it is also 10 years of ACTUAL war...not training, and that's a BIG difference. When you train for it, but all of a sudden your line to HQ is dead, and your guys are dying all around you and you didn't even get an air warning...it's a whole different story....

We won't use nukes, I'd guarantee that.

reply to post by DarKPenguiN


They've cut the line before. They did it last in 2010 I believe, after the South accused them of sinking their patrol ship. They said they wouldn't restore communications until the president of the ROK left office. They've gone farther than threatening in the past and have actually cut it.

Originally posted by mr-lizard
What the hell does this mean

It means that the kid running North Korea is an idiot.

US Army Japan - Link to my old unit in Japan. Our mission was to be the first to go to S. Korea if N. Korea invaded it. If anyone can find out if they are on alert .. that will tell you something. From what I see .. no civilians have been evaculated and if we were about to go to war, they'd evacuate the civilians and dependents back to CONUS because Camp Zama in Japan would be a target for N. Korea.

Current Force Status US Army Japan

All green. Normal. Schools in session. Civilians still there.
If the balloon was about to go up, the schools would be closed
and they all would be evac'd to CONUS.

(unless the camp commander is a moron ... )

reply to post by UnBreakable


"but I do believe we have the upper hand in nuke weapons and technology even John Q. Public is unaware of."

Thats just it through, NK would end up back in the stone-age in no time flat if or when they ever decide to launch an invasion.

It's a no brainer i'm afraid, technology beats sheer numbers hands down every time when pertaining to modern warfare! I would also add that a large percentage of there armed forces most likely suffer from malnutrition, are under trained and do not have the supplies to defend against never mind initiate an invasion.

Originally posted by Zaphod58
reply to post by DarKPenguiN

 

They've cut the line before. They did it last in 2010 I believe, after the South accused them of sinking their patrol ship. They said they wouldn't restore communications until the president of the ROK left office. They've gone farther than threatening in the past and have actually cut it.

Hmmm- I was aware of the attack but didnt know they actually cut lines of communication.
Regardless, ending armistance, threatening to Nuke the USA and cutting the lines of communication is not a good sign.

-And again, NK is a serious player. Propaganda aside. And although China/Russia may publicly condemn them- They will be secretly assisting them IMHO.

This also has the potential to be a tipping point into WW3. The second we engage there is the real potential of Iran (and others hitting Israel while our hands are tied, Pakistan hitting India while our hands are tied AND the possibility of a full blown World War... And looking at the map, the "allies" are not looking too good compared to the potential "Axis"-
Again...I think this blows over. But this is a very volatile issue.

reply to post by FlyersFan


According to most sources, we're still at DEFCON 4 in most areas (5 in others). It would likely take an attack or deadline of some sort to move it to DEFCON 3.

-And again, NK is a serious player. Propaganda aside. And although China/Russia may publicly condemn them- They will be secretly assisting them IMHO.

This also has the potential to be a tipping point into WW3. The second we engage there is the real potential of Iran (and others hitting Israel while our hands are tied, Pakistan hitting India while our hands are tied AND the possibility of a full blown World War... And looking at the map, the "allies" are not looking too good compared to the potential "Axis"-
Again...I think this blows over. But this is a very volatile issue.

Some very real concerns... All we can do is trust that NK isn't stupid enough to escalate this any further. I feel this is like a child playing with a Stretch Armstrong...seeing just how far he can pull it before it snaps. Un knows these tactics have worked in the past, and is trying to outshine his dad's shadow.

I wouldn't worry much about Israel though...I have a feeling their current leadership wouldn't hesitate to use tactical nukes or biologics on an attacking foe...and most of them know it.

Originally posted by Gazrok
reply to post by FlyersFan

 

According to most sources, we're still at DEFCON 4 in most areas (5 in others). It would likely take an attack or deadline of some sort to move it to DEFCON 3.

I thought NORAD quit giving that info.
Where are you getting that from please. Not that I disbelieve you, just curious.

And yes, it would take something pretty serious to put us to 3.

reply to post by DarKPenguiN


This is at least the second time that I know of that they've scrapped the armistice. It's almost like they have a script that they give to their leadership, and tell them not to deviate from it. I think this time there's a little more pressure, and they might get a little closer, because of how young Un is, but I don't see his military leadership allowing things to go too far, and shooting to start. They're not stupid, and they know their cushy lives would be done if it did.

Originally posted by Zaphod58
reply to post by DarKPenguiN

 

This is at least the second time that I know of that they've scrapped the armistice. It's almost like they have a script that they give to their leadership, and tell them not to deviate from it. I think this time there's a little more pressure, and they might get a little closer, because of how young Un is, but I don't see his military leadership allowing things to go too far, and shooting to start. They're not stupid, and they know their cushy lives would be done if it did.

I didnt believe you, then looked it up and surprisingly you are correct.

How then, can they use the same agreement from 1953 (or whatever)? Wouldnt they (or shouldnt they) have to draw up a new one once they void and old one lol.

-I mean, if its on again/off against isnt worth the original agreement? IDK, thats pretty crazy.
Thanks for the info but now I am baffled.
For instance, if they broke the agreement in , say, 1971- There should be a 1971 agreement they are breaking now and not a 1953 already broken agreement... But I guess logic fails.
I was mistaken.

reply to post by DarKPenguiN

I thought NORAD quit giving that info.
Where are you getting that from please. Not that I disbelieve you, just curious.

NORAD no longer shows it, correct. There are some civilian agencies, though, that reflect it, based on monitoring forces, conditions, and the military's own internal websites, to conclude the current status. Of course, some of these are more or less reliable than others.

None are "official", but by checking a few, you can get an idea of the alert status. Also, from some military friends I correspond with (mostly over the weekend), some have said they are on alert (Navy, Air Force), others state no change (mostly Army, Nat. Guard).

If I didn't add the disclaimer that it isn't official...I'll do so now with apologies...

-I mean, if its on again/off against isnt worth the original agreement? IDK, thats pretty crazy.
Thanks for the info but now I am baffled.
For instance, if they broke the agreement in , say, 1971- There should be a 1971 agreement they are breaking now and not a 1953 already broken agreement... But I guess logic fails.
I was mistaken.

You would think so. In fact, there's likely a good chance that the "agreement" never WAS really back in effect, unless they did some kind of addendum....would be interesting to find out.

reply to post by DarKPenguiN


There was actually a non-aggression pact agreed to in the 1990s, but with regards to the 1953 armistice, from what I've figured out, they all basically go "Ok we won" and tell the rest of the world "Nah, we were just kidding, it's all good, everything is still intact." and restore the armistice. It's an awkward way to do it, but it seems to work.

Originally posted by Gazrok
reply to post by DarKPenguiN

 

I thought NORAD quit giving that info.
Where are you getting that from please. Not that I disbelieve you, just curious.

NORAD no longer shows it, correct. There are some civilian agencies, though, that reflect it, based on monitoring forces, conditions, and the military's own internal websites, to conclude the current status. Of course, some of these are more or less reliable than others.

None are "official", but by checking a few, you can get an idea of the alert status. Also, from some military friends I correspond with (mostly over the weekend), some have said they are on alert (Navy, Air Force), others state no change (mostly Army, Nat. Guard).

If I didn't add the disclaimer that it isn't official...I'll do so now with apologies...

Cool TY.
Yeah I was looking last night and couldn't find it- No even sure when NORAD quit showing that information nor why. But I am sure you are correct.

reply to post by Zaphod58


Awkward is an understatement...it may not even be legal or binding!

I believe they scrapped it (NORAD showing DEFCON status) after 911, when we went to DEFCON 3. Apparently, we were a hair away from going to DEFCON 2 then....just my own recollection though, I don't see an official announcement for when they pulled it.

Originally posted by Gazrok
Also, from some military friends I correspond with (mostly over the weekend), some have said they are on alert (Navy, Air Force), others state no change (mostly Army, Nat. Guard).

One of the scenarios that we gamed out a few times, was a massive Air Force deployment in the event of the Korean War starting up again. They would deploy bombers, which would go overhead to Guam and Okinawa, and a couple hundred fighters over the course of about a week. In the scenario, we would park them wherever we had room on Hickam, and then start stacking them along all the less essential taxiways at Honolulu International, and even on a couple of the shorter runways they have. Luckily we have yet to find out if it would work or not.

reply to post by andy06shake

It's a no brainer i'm afraid, technology beats sheer numbers hand down every time when pertaining to modern warfare!

Has it been tested yet since Germany and Russia went at it?

reply to post by Gazrok


Not in a court of law, but as long as all parties involved agree to be bound by it again, I don't see why it wouldn't work. It's a heck of a lot better than the reset button they gave Russia. North Korea pushed for a formal treaty a number of times, but they want the moon for it. It would involve the US almost completely leaving the peninsula, security agreements, and several other things they aren't likely to get any time soon. They basically wanted it all, and probably for very little in return.

reply to post by superman2012


Technically, it was tested in Iraq. Barring the ground invasions, if you look at just the air wars, you can clearly see the effectiveness of a relatively small force of advanced aircraft and cruise missiles versus hardened anti-aircraft defenses, etc.

Not in a court of law, but as long as all parties involved agree to be bound by it again, I don't see why it wouldn't work.

Agreed..legal or not, as long as both respect it...it's in effect.

Originally posted by Catch_a_Fire
The BBC are showing a report on this now.

Theyve been quiet on this the past few days.

These num nuts are STILL sayin the S Hook shootings were done with the bushmaster!
This is straight propaganda...and a damned lie!
Thats what BBC is about, the British CNN
Screw NK, they are just as much puppets as the BBC or CNN!
Its all PSYCHO DRAMA by the bloody sahdow goverments....!
Its the same # everywhere!

SEOUL, March 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military is preparing against unexpected military provocations by North Korea, a Seoul official said, as the communist country ratcheted up threats of a nuclear war ahead of a joint South Korea-U.S military drill.

Hahah, what's going on in that country has nothing to do with communism. It's a fascist dictatorship and just the usual, run of the mill propaganda.