What will happen if there is a civil war in America?

I find it interesting that some ascribe to the monolitic all powerful federal government. Other than low tech rifles and light armored vehicles all the rest of the inventory takes intensive amounts of logistical support and maintenence to remain effectively fielded and operational.

One must ask what does it take to operate a Bradley, M1 or for that matter drones and how long can they remain fielded if logistical chain is broken.

Using the OP's scenario I envision the government attempting to quell things very heavily handed much like having multiple Waco's that the media won't be able to coverup and inflaming much greater resistance - at first they'd have an upper hand however as things repidly deteriorated I can very easily see the logistical chain breaking down to the point it starts marginalizing complicated systems or platforms that are high resource users such as armored vehicles like the M1 or Bradley or those requiring constant maintenence or parts replacement - look to combat A/C readiness, its great system if it has 80% availability and thats in perfect conditions of peacetime.

Our military only works as well as it doe's because we have by far the best logistical chain bar none, break that chain and I think much of the high techery will become so much useless scrap.

A majority of the most important bases are out in rural areas apt to rebel first and stay in rebellion making them either untenable or ineffective due to supply chain interruptions, food, fuel, spares and ammo all come to mind.

I believe most if not all major repair/refurbishment depots as well as a majority of the ammo dumps are also rural.

With the above in mind,

Isolated early resistance to confiscation would result in high profile media hyped mass raids infuriating the fence sitters. Modern communications would spread the word like wildfire to every neighborhood in America. Should the government unwisely decide to shutdown all means of personal communication it will result in every neighborhood banding together anyway in self defence.

At this point things go haywire,

Any vehicle even appearing to be governmentel will be stopped and turned away or if not then probably met with force. This will be the proverbial "death by a million pinpricks" to federal raids on American homes.

Feds are forced to consolidate from efficient "squad" size detachments to more unweildy and inefficiant "company" sized or larger units to conduct further raids reinforcing general feeling the constitution is under assualt by a tyrannical government, at every turn the government acts as its own worst enemy in turning otherwise docile people into patriots.

If the feds locked down major metropolitan areas they create situation where transportation breaks down, road, rail and air transport would slow to a trickle as everything would require a military escort

At this time travel via interstate, railway or even major state highways will be impossible without heavy escort even if feds did not lockdown cities.

The "just in time" distribution system american business relies upon ensures immediate shortages of food, fuel and medications amongst many heretofore needed but unrecognized critical supplies usually carried by truckers and somewhat by rail. Virtuall all industry including defence related is shutdown for lack of labor, power and supplies.

Regional power outages become common as rail delivered coal stocks run low, natural gas and oil pipeline flows are cut off or needed spares become unavailable not to mention sporadic line sabotage.

Now retune the thinking about US Military and its reliance on its logistical train with what actually may happen when broken.

At this moment in time most military manpower is on overseas obligations not so easily abruptly disengaged from without very serious ramifications. Those forces would become isolated and cutoff making for an internal pentagon emergency tieing up resources either in resupply or attempting transportation home or to safe zones.

Meanwhile conus forces and inventory may be cut 40-60% depending on who's asked by defection, desertion or other reasons, port facilities are mostly shutdown, normal international air transport is in disarray and what little resources are available require a signifigant portion of available manpower and weapons platforms to even move about.

I surmise that within a short period of a full rebellion that the military would be severely reduced in effectiveness right down to third world standards right along with the living standards of civilians or worse as the OP suggests.

Originally posted by Neocrusader
Sorry, although I did read many of the replies i'll admit I kinda skimmed a few
Bit I should imagine the UN blue helmets have been considered .......naturally being on the govs side
But something that is often forgotten or overlooked in these threads is the probable insurgency
How many do you think would come to the US through Canada and Mexico to help the resistance against the gov ?

I personally believe many would come ...........but I wonder ........how would you receive them ?

With open arms, happy for the assistance and skills brought to your cause

Or the way non US posters tend to get treated on this site ?
Coz lets face it .......a US cit can write about anything, anyone, anywhere
But you try and be a non US cit and say something about America ............
You can stick your nose in where ever you choose, but should we have an input, an idea, a question, we are dismissed, insulted, like we don't count
Please ponder this attitude before you answer .........and sorry for the mini rant

edit on 14-1-2013 by Neocrusader because: Auto

I do think there would be others that come to help the resistance, just as there would be those from Mexico and Canada, though much less with Canada, that would come to raid for goods and other things because the what law enforcement there is would have bigger fish to fry than to deal with them. The ones I think would come to help though, would seem to be there to help for the people, but may have other more nefarious motives, think France aiding the rebels during the American Revolution.

reply to post by Phoenix

Our military only works as well as it doe's because we have by far the best logistical chain bar none, break that chain and I think much of the high techery will become so much useless scrap.

That would be true if it was a long chain. How many people would it take to fly/operate/reload/repair a drone? What if one person was trained in more than one area? What about to shoot a missile? Fly a plane? I ask because I really don't know.
I starred your post because it was insightful. I don't agree with it all, but you put a lot of thought into it!

Originally posted by babybunnies
Not bad, but I would think that there would be large scale protests before any sort of militia etc is formed, and those protests would likely be beaten back by police, as per G20 summit protests in Philadelphia.

Well, I was kind of hurrying it along a bit. But yes, that would more than likely be the case.

Many gun owners / hunters are not fit enough to join militias, and you have to factor in the complete apathy of most of the American people.

True enough, the ones that I mainly envisioned as rebelling are mainly veterans. However, you may be surprised at just how many rural gun owners would stand against Stalin-esque tactics.

I believe that your scenario would only take place if creature comforts were removed along with Government demanding guns back. If the Government were to shut off power to those people who were refusing to comply with gun retrieval, then this migh force the sort of scenario you're looking at.

Most likely, I was focusing more on the actual rebellion, not what lead up to it. But, I see why that should be added

As far as the original premise, the Government hasn't actually proposed taking back the firearms that are already out there. Even an Executive Order would only pertain to NEW sales, and wouldn't force people to give up anything that they already have, which is why, as a law, it will be completely useless.

Of course, the whole discussion between myself and Superman2012 was because of several people talking about rebellion in other threads

For most of the bluster of the gun owners, I doubt very many of them would actually take any action at all if the Government troops came to their doors looking for their guns. I highly doubt there will be shoot out scenarios in most cases, but this will definitely happen in a few locations. I doubt Alex Jones would be one who would fight, I bet he doesn't put his money where his mouth is when it comes down to a fight against heavily armed and armored troops at his door.

True, most of them wouldn't but the number that I'm saying would is based mainly on the gun owners that I know around the country (about 60% being vets). Whether or not people like Alex Jones would actually fight is irrelevant. There are many who's stories are centered around famous wars who didn't fight in those wars or sometimes any wars, think Winston Churchill, Ben Franklin, or even Adolf Hitler.

Originally posted by dave_welch
reply to post by Thunder heart woman

 

Sorry, but being a vet myself, I'd say that a large number of the military would not follow that order as it is an unlawful order. Also, considering we took an oath to support and defend the constitution of the united states. I don't know about you, but I don't take oaths lightly.

Nevermind the fact that every single military member has family of some kind, somewhere - either immediate/nuclear (wife, children) or parental (Only a tiny percentage are forgotten, ostracized, uncaring vagabonds). That would have to go through EVERY single military personnel's mind before following such orders - that somewhere, some other arm of the military is doing to their lovedones what they do not wish to do to someone esle'. Scruples.

reply to post by Phoenix


You, Phoenix, are my new best friend. You just said exactly what I have tried to say, but it all came through when you said it!

Just one question???? If SHTF, In theory, how many of you are truely ready to fight, for our freedom?

reply to post by SquirrelNutz


Major part of the reason that I think a large chunk of the Military would defect. No matter how cruel and cold they may be on a global front, in they're own back yard, many of them will have such thoughts persuade them not to follow their orders, or cause a rash of suicides by those who thought of it too late.

Originally posted by superman2012
reply to post by Phoenix

 

Our military only works as well as it doe's because we have by far the best logistical chain bar none, break that chain and I think much of the high techery will become so much useless scrap.

That would be true if it was a long chain. How many people would it take to fly/operate/reload/repair a drone? What if one person was trained in more than one area? What about to shoot a missile? Fly a plane? I ask because I really don't know.
I starred your post because it was insightful. I don't agree with it all, but you put a lot of thought into it!

To fly a drone, it takes a dedicated trailer or ops center and a pilot/controller just to operate. Behind the scenes you need fuel and fuelers (basic airfield ops) Maintenence for the airframe, avionics, electronics and weapons specialists to handle weaponry. It all adds up to alot of personel in support of drone operations. Of course all those people have to be fed, housed and feel their families are safe.

Then you have to assume those operating these drones are willing to use them for anything more than surveiliance on their fellow citizens - IMHO once used offensively the ranks will quickly thin.

At a minimum I think you have at least a dozen or so involved in direct operations and potentially hundreds involved in parts, suppy and refurbishment behind all of that.

All of those people have to have life go on normally or be indoctrinated so badly that they would participate in murder of fellow citizens.

The OP stated a full rebellion as the premise of this post - in city by city or limited regional engagments I'd be more apt to agree your stance but that not the scenario presented is it?

reply to post by dave_welch


Click on the page I posted eariler and think about what kind of force we could be facing, then post your take on that, It might open your eyes a bit.

Originally posted by dave_welch
reply to post by Phoenix

 

You, Phoenix, are my new best friend. You just said exactly what I have tried to say, but it all came through when you said it!

Thank You! many holding the opposite view or argument have not fully thought this out to its full ramifications, I too am a writer btw and am working something along the lines here and I deal directly with the "depot" aspect in my story.

Anyone caring enough to read history will realize wars won were from outstanding ability to logistically support our military even when individual systems or platforms were lacking conversely when losing or coming to a draw it was always politics.

Originally posted by superman2012
reply to post by Phoenix

 

Our military only works as well as it doe's because we have by far the best logistical chain bar none, break that chain and I think much of the high techery will become so much useless scrap.

That would be true if it was a long chain. How many people would it take to fly/operate/reload/repair a drone? What if one person was trained in more than one area? What about to shoot a missile? Fly a plane? I ask because I really don't know.
I starred your post because it was insightful. I don't agree with it all, but you put a lot of thought into it!

The thing with military repair and maintenance especially is that you have operators and techs. Operators are the ones that control drones, fire missiles, shoot the bigger guns on naval ships such as the 5-inch cannon, 3-inch cannon, MK22, and CIWS. Then there are techs who operate them sometimes, but are the only ones who know how to fix them. Then, with the case of reloading a drone, plane, or helicopter, there are ordinancemen whose only job is to handle ordinance and load it onto it's respective craft. However, at least in the Navy, there are some rates that do a little bit of everything with combat systems. I was a SONAR Technician, and though I operated the equipment as much as the other STGs, I was a tech, which meant that me, and the other tech were the only two on the ship that could fix our multi-million dollar, highly tempermental system. That's the problem with military equipment, it is all built by the lowest bidder and the higher tech it is, the less reliable it is. The amount of maintenance required just to keep it running was ridiculous. Along with all of that, I was also on the Fire team, the SCAT (small caliber action team), BRF (backup reactionary force) which was to deal with active shooters and other shipboard hostile scenarios, Torpedo Handling Team, and 5-inch Reloader team. This was all while at what the Navy calls "Optimal Manning" which is basically the bare minimum due to cuts in manning after Bush left office. I wasn't an over achiever either, this was common for nearly everybody on the ship except for the cooks because their work day lasts from 0430 to 2130 everyday with few breaks in between. So, in a situation where large chunks of military forces are no longer there, most of the big, high-tech, expensive weapons become useless rather fast. Not to mention the Logistics Nightmare faced by Naval forces, which can be even worse for ground forces in a warzone.

Fascinating, but all-too-realistic, scenario you have painted for us, OP.

I can see where the pockets of resistance would be targets, so I cannot help but think that those who have survival skills and would disappear in the wilderness would be more able to survive than those that band together.

As far as staying warm in the winter, I was thinking on this very thought, as today is it a whopping 25 degrees for a high out here in west Texas. However, I notice when it snows, my large concrete tornado shelter doesn't have snow that builds up on it, it melts off. That's because the temp 8 feet down stays fairly consistent. If I covered the concrete with dirt, I guess the snow would stick better. Anyway, I have a point to this....!

Many of the original dwellings out here on the plains, with its severe temperature swings, high winds, and lack of trees, were built mostly underground, with just some wood to keep the opening secure, with a wooden door, etc. Of course you can have heat in them, but you can also go without heat if you needed to hide, and the temperature would stay more constant. They're called "dugouts" or "sod homes".

How to build: dlsoucy.wordpress.com...

As far as medicine, etc., I would suggest that people build up a home pharmacy now, with herbs to replace whatever medicine you might be on. Get a book on wild edible plants.

I would think that people shouldn't bunch up right away to be targets, everybody needs to scatter and go into the unpopulated places until things start to settle down.

If our military cannot handle the "insurgents" in other countries in basic little towns, I'm assuming they will not be able to get us all if we scatter. It would be like trying to herd cats. Get to know the wilderness areas around where you live...the side roads, the places where nobody goes, etc. Know how you're going to get there. Even a basic garden wagon with thick wheels can be used to drag supplies, or children, or the elderly.

Just some thoughts.

Also have you taken into account how many people could try and assume the God Complex and try to take over areas sectioning off this country, so we would not be a one army fighting force, but many fighting for different power lords.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


I totally agree, smaller groups have a much higher success rate in any battle, they can move quicker, lighter and hit in more places, with greater surprise. That is why the military sets up teams like the seals or. special ops. They are are all small numbered units.

reply to post by dave_welch


By you're own experience you have validated what I had recently posted as far as "inhouse" capabilities. Now imagine no "tech support" from manufacturer, no spares, no refurbishment, no fuel, no food, no resupply.

All due to econonomic, transportation difficulties, manafacturing shutdowns, power shutdowns and a plethora of other root causes completely taking down the logistical system as it exists now.

FUBAR is the right term.

reply to post by Phoenix


Basic premise as I was just saying. I wish I knew you.

reply to post by Phoenix


You know give them a little more SNAFU, LOL, You know in theory only.

Originally posted by candlelight
reply to post by dave_welch

 

Click on the page I posted eariler and think about what kind of force we could be facing, then post your take on that, It might open your eyes a bit.

Went there, but wasn't sure what video you want me to watch, can you link the video, or the title of the video?

Originally posted by candlelight
reply to post by Phoenix

 

Basic premise as I was just saying. I wish I knew you.

edit on 14-1-2013 by candlelight because: (no reason given)

You do know me, fellow citizen and lover of freedom. Be nice to hang though!

This will all work out in time, my belief and observation is the harder the pendulum is pushed one way it always comes back to the otherside equally as well in response.

I would not mind if it found center once in awhile but it seems theres always those willing to push it to extremes.