Quake Watch 2013

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by dreamfox1

 

Article ©2003 Terra Research LLC - All photos by Terra Research of true 'Earth Transient Cloud formations' - captured during research trips. .*note: excluding rock slides, explosion, and traditional fracture

"Now, there are three photos of clouds and the author says these form in seconds just before an earthquake.

My question therefore (which I am not expecting you to answer) is: If the author photographed these immediately before an earthquake why does he not mention which earthquake? Not once, not twice, not three times.

Personally I find that a little curious! "


Yea that is a good question. hmmm

Maybe it was before a very large one or just several small ones like we had today

edit on 7/30/2012 by dreamfox1 because:

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau 6.1 ML

www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/earthquake/Data/quake/EE0327100361041.htm

GCMT(Quick CMT) of LDEO - 6 Mw, rounded up from 0.02 decimal, calculated value is 5.98 using the formula.

www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html

Note on calculation of moment magnitude: The moment magnitude is calculated by this software using the formula of Kanamori (1977), MW = (2/3)*(log M0 - 16.1), where M0 is given in units of dyne-cm.

www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT4/form?itype=ymd&yr=2013&mo=3&day=27&oyr=1976&omo=1&oday=1&jyr=1976&jday=1&ojyr=1976&ojday=1&otype =nd&nday=1&lmw=0&umw=10&lms=0&ums=10&lmb=0&umb=10&llat=-90&ulat=90&llon=-180&ulon=180&lhd=0&uhd=1000<s=-9999&uts=9999&lpe1=0&upe1=90&lpe2=0&upe2=90& list=0

www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/mtfull.php?id=310026

Yesterday the South Sandwich Islands Mag 6.1 quake was put up on offer at Mag 5.9 by USGS.

This is despite the fact that the centroid moment tensor on the USGS site says 6.0 and the other less relaible one say 5.9.

EMSC still considers it to be 6.0 Mw.

GFZ Potsdam remains unchanged at 6.0 Mw.

I went to check it in the ANSS catalogue but it seems that is woefully behind. Apparently there have only been 17 earthquakes of Mag 5 or greater since the 1st Jan - none of which is greater than Mag 5.6 So there you have it folks. There is little or no activity worldwide this year.

Your search parameters are:

catalog=ANSS
start_time=2013/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2013/03/28,16:56:21
minimum_magnitude=5
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E

DateTime,Latitude,Longitude,Depth,Magnitude,MagType,NbStations,Gap,Distance,RMS,Source,EventID
2013/01/01 07:35:50.84,46.9040,151.0230,48.70,5.10,Mw,438,,,0.62,NEI,2013010110
2013/01/01 12:21:26.47,-26.8100,-63.3470,565.30,5.40,ML,162,,,0.74,NEI,2013010110
2013/01/02 02:00:21.17,-2.9270,101.1360,41.10,5.20,ML,61,,,0.93,NEI,2013010210
2013/01/03 00:02:15.28,-1.6120,127.3440,16.00,5.60,Mw,96,,,1.41,NEI,2013010310
2013/01/04 07:32:36.99,-15.1930,-173.9480,83.30,5.60,ML,85,,,0.98,NEI,2013010410
2013/01/04 10:10:53.06,-29.8330,-176.3810,52.70,5.00,ML,92,,,1.05,NEI,2013010410
2013/01/04 12:42:51.42,22.2220,143.5040,146.00,5.40,ML,74,,,1.06,NEI,2013010410
2013/01/04 13:13:41.98,-16.4370,-173.3750,9.90,5.70,ML,177,,,0.74,NEI,2013010410
2013/01/04 23:16:27.35,-20.8950,169.5480,72.20,5.40,ML,111,,,0.88,NEI,2013010410
2013/01/05 04:00:44.80,-13.1370,66.7700,12.10,5.20,Mb,204,,,1.00,NEI,2013010510
2013/01/05 04:11:53.25,28.7330,128.5950,40.00,5.40,Mb,272,,,0.54,NEI,2013010510
2013/01/05 08:58:19.72,55.3680,-134.6210,9.80,7.50,Mw,382,,,1.55,NEI,2013010510
2013/01/05 12:28:30.80,55.2350,-134.5270,9.80,5.10,Mb,237,,,0.96,NEI,2013010510
2013/01/05 17:42:22.34,-19.9440,66.4390,10.00,5.10,Mb,59,,,1.20,NEI,2013010510
2013/01/30 03:14:34.23,43.5660,-127.5980,5.00,5.30,Unk,0,0,0,0.00,UW,604984
2013/02/13 00:10:45.00,38.0280,-118.0520,12.00,5.10,Unk,17,329,422,27.9,UW,605059
2013/02/27 22:25:44.34,43.1030,-126.8497,5.00,5.10,Unk,34,295,207,0.72,UW,605078

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo


lol, I figure that's why to give a .5 mag spread. I estimated 5.7 to 6.2 in my incoming thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I figure that ought to cover all magnitude types, and all the various opinions from all the agencies. It's a 5.7 to 6.2, ok? The end. Maybe someone can actually understand that. No need for Mb, Ms, Md, Mw, Mwp, ML, the USGS, the Esmc, LDEO, blah blah fricken BLAH!

That's ATS magnitude, there, baby.

I went to check it in the ANSS catalogue but it seems that is woefully behind. Apparently there have only been 17 earthquakes of Mag 5 or greater since the 1st Jan - none of which is greater than Mag 5.6 So there you have it folks. There is little or no activity worldwide this year.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thats great, right? I mean... good?

Or does it, or could it, mean there is a build up of pressure?

El Hierro, Canary Islands 01/03/2013 to about an hour ago
Here is a interactive map of the whole 1649 of them, all mags, data from IGN

there have been a few more since I downloaded that data
Evento Fecha Hora (GMT)* Latitud Longitud (km) Mag. Tipo Mag. Localización

1201786 28/03/2013 22:01:05 27.7191 -18.2751 20 3.5 mbLg W FRONTERA.IHI
1201789 28/03/2013 22:00:23 27.7313 -18.2888 18 3.4 mbLg W FRONTERA.IHI
1201781 28/03/2013 21:58:40 27.7309 -18.2756 19 3.3 mbLg W FRONTERA.IHI
www.01.ign.es...

split into days, with a graph for each day at volcanic tremors - hierro

www.theworld.org...

motherboard.vice.com...

stateimpact.npr.org...

www.sciencedaily.com...

Originally posted by wujotvowujotvowujotvo
Indian Ocean Triple Junction - spreading, 5.4(GFZ, GCMT)

Off the coast of Ecuador - transform, 5.5(GFZ, GCMT, USGS)

M4.9 - Indian Ocean Triple Junction 2013-03-15 09:46:45 UTC

earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000flan

M4.6 - Off the coast of Ecuador 2013-03-15 23:37:35 UTC

earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000flq3

M4.9 - 253km ENE of Raoul Island, New Zealand 2013-03-28 04:25:35 UTC
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000fubp

Formula 5.59

www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT4/form?itype=ymd&yr=2013&mo=3&day=28&oyr=1976&omo=1&oday=1&jyr=1976&jday=1&ojyr=1976&ojday=1&otype =nd&nday=1&lmw=0&umw=10&lms=0&ums=10&lmb=0&umb=10&llat=-90&ulat=90&llon=-180&ulon=180&lhd=0&uhd=1000<s=-9999&uts=9999&lpe1=0&upe1=90&lpe2=0&upe2=90& list=0

201303280425A KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Date: 2013/ 3/28 Centroid Time: 4:25:43.2 GMT
Lat= -27.98 Lon=-176.09
Depth= 15.3 Half duration= 1.6
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 8.1
Moment Tensor: Expo=24 2.020 -0.076 -1.940 0.731 2.230 -0.553
Mw = 5.6 mb = 0.0 Ms = 4.9 Scalar Moment = 3.12e+24
Fault plane: strike=193 dip=21 slip=86
Fault plane: strike=17 dip=69 slip=92

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo

Yeah GFZ had that as a 5.0mb, I thought it was a bit on the low side when I seen the LISS SNZO graph of it, considering the depth would muffle the trace.

Almost as high peaks as the Tonga 5.4
5.6 seems to fit better.

LDEO has 5.5Ms. www.ldeo.columbia.edu...
I wonder why GCMT have only 4.9Ms, the two outfits are run by the same people Göran Ekström and Co-Principal Investigator Meredith Nettles at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) of Columbia University.

Originally posted by muzzy
El Hierro, Canary Islands 01/03/2013 to about an hour ago
Here is a interactive map of the whole 1649 of them, all mags, data from IGN

there have been a few more since I downloaded that data

and I have now added them to the map, another 21 to the end of 28/03, quite a few 3's and a 4.1

reply to post by muzzy

How serious are you taking this? And do you think there could be a major explostion.?

Do you think this could cause a reaction to "La Palma?

Just refreshed USGS & saw this!!!

Update time = Fri Mar 29 18:17:03 UTC 2013

MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LATdeg LONdeg DEPTHkm Region

MAP 4.6 2013/03/29 17:01:22 27.648 -18.299 17.3 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

WOQ

reply to post by crappiekat

Not as seriously than if it was Mt. Ruapehu or Mt Egmont volcano's here in NZ 186-196km north and north east of my house repectively.

I haven't read the IGN page today or read earthquake-report yet, but I believe there may have already been an eruption on the 27th March between 05:58 and 15:07.
This is based on comparing the graphs I made into the combined 7 days 23-29/03/2013 graph with what happened back on 8-9th October 2011 off the SW of the island when it erupted there.
The 0km depths that occurred in 2011 haven't matched with the current series/swarm depth though.
I haven't done the 7 day graphs for October 2011 but here are the two days that seem to match to me.
see the gap (double ended arrows) on both just before the surge to mag 4's! (fingers are where I reckon the blow out was)
Where the lines are bunched up the number of quakes are closer together time wise and where the line does a long sweeping curve there are not many quakes in that time period.


Note:
I'm not a vulcanologist or geologist but from 12,000km away it looks like it has sub marine erupted to me.
As ever, more funding ( or any funding at all!) is required to continue the research and reach a conclusion. My rate as a Expert Consultant to find leaks in roofs and write reports is $200/hr, but seeing as I'm not as experienced at finding leaks in the earths crust I'd do it for $100/hr, it would probably take about 1800 hours



I did a bit of combined graphing for 29Oct-11Nov 2011 here after it was all over and edited them into the run of posts, but I didn't get back any further.
I'll do my NZ update this morning and then maybe carry on with that, its good to have something to compare with.


also this paragraph is interesting (re the 2011 eruption/earthquakes) from an article in "Geology"called Fire in the sea—Growth and destruction of submarine volcanoes by Hans-Ulrich Schmincke and Mari Sumita © 2013 Geological Society of America, which discusses El Hierro ........

Ibañez et al. (2012) infered that the initial earthquakes reflected magma migration from the upper mantle to crustal depths, where high fracturing would favor anomalously high b-values of the frequency-magnitude distribution of up to 2.25 (b-values in volcanic regions sometimes reaching 3). The larger-magnitude earthquakes with lower b-values (1.25) are interpreted by Ibañez et al. (2012) to reflect relaxation around the magma reservoir. geology.gsapubs.org...

so the mag 4 earthquakes are not necessarily the actual eruption, but relaxation of the rock around the reservoir afterwards That is why I think it has blown up again this week in the NW section already.

Oh look! Earthquake clouds! NOT!!

Photographed just now outside my front door/ I am holding on for the Mag 6, or is it 7, no maybe 8.

reply to post by PuterMan

wot, no snow?
weather should change for the better for you northerners any time soon, we are about to get our first regular rain for 3 months here, been a wonderful Summer, but it can't last for ever, showers are predicted here for the foreseeable future on the 10 day forecast.
I read somewhere that this years cycle is being called El Nada (vs the usual El Nino or La Nina) due to the lack of any wind from any direction

Just noticed this new feature above the editing box

Apply your edit (you have 48 minutes remaining to edit this post):

what happened to the 4 hour editing window? (ha ha)
I originally posted that at 31-3-2013 @ 08:19 AM
now 09:32 AM

5.1's, 4.7's, California, 5.0's Fiji Islands

Ref: 2013p238561
Lat/Long: -31.2053 -176.27
When: 2013-03-30 06:23:55.333 UTC
Depth: 300 km
Mag: 5.3094 ML
No. of Phases used: 75
Status: reviewed
Location: Fleming Seamount, Kermadec Islands Region
Energy Released: 1388.380 tonnes of TNT
Source: GNS

reply to post by muzzy

Hmm took the others a while to get that one up on the lists
EMSC and USGS both have 4.3mb
GFZ 5.0 Unk.
all 3 of them a whole submarine ridge away (316km) from where Geonet/GNS had it.
has already rolled off the SNZO graph but I saved it here
on the 6:00 line at the top, about 6:34
na that wasn't a 5.3

Balleny Is at 19:00 line , only shown by LDEO

2013 3 30 19 36 48.0 -62.75 164.25 33.0 5.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

and the next one at the end of the 20:00 line is Burma, LDEO has 5.4 which would be about right at that distance from NZ, the others have it at about 4.8, or 5.0, no way jose! it wouldn't show at all. Thailand had that one at 5.8, I think its ML from memory, here
and China put 5.6Ms on it here

we can safely say there was a quake on the Burma-India Border of between 4.8 and 5.8
its really just not good enough for the 21st century is it!
lets call it a "moderate" quake then, and forget about the numbers

I had a dream last night that I was checking USGS and there were 2 9.0 quakes. That seems so unrealistic so it must just be some crazy dream I had.