Quake Watch 2013

reply to post by Rezlooper

but I think he's downplaying that there is an increase in quakes

Believe me or not as you wish but I can assure you that I never have and never would either downplay or over-hype anything. I report the data as I find it. If there is an increase I will say so, likewise if there is a decrease.

I have no agenda and no axe to grind. It makes no difference, i.e. has no benefit to me, which way the trend is going. My only wish is to report facts so that others can be informed. If you or they choose to ignore what I find I have no problem with that, I have done my 'job' in placing the data before you.

@TA: You make me blush!

Originally posted by Rezlooper
reply to post by happykat39

 

Hey HappyKat, I'd like to know what your take is on earthquakes and if they are rising in frequency. Puterman and the experts will tell us they are not and these swarms are normal. If you're a follower of the quakes, I'd like to know your opinion.

Much props to your really cool threads and much of your info man. I really respect a lot of what you say.

Puterman reminds me of a highly educated version of Archie Bunker from All in the Family. Very testy at times, downright cantekerous at other times, but his info is rock solid.

His dedication to the scientific study of eqs is rock solid. And his data is sound.

A little while ago I posted that my family felt an eq, the experts on here, including Puterman, helped with a lot of investigation.

Btw, my family is sticking to their story, and are more convinced now that it was related to the oil corps digging up the coast.

Regarding Puterman, much to his credit, he doesnt go on the Experimental eq thread and comment with any of our weirder ideas, but he will rush to any eq thread that is posted that is not showing accurate Data.

Personally, I dont understand much of what he says,but I totally respect his data.

Professor Bunker? Lol

Peace

Question.
Do any of you think there is a correlation between the speed with which the USGS or NCEDC or any other agency works up and posts first motion mechanisms, and their "concern" for potentially larger movement in that particular locale?
As an example, the mag 2.1 offshore San Simeon, CA from 20 minutes ago had the focal mechanism linked within 7 minutes (well that is when I noticed it listed--could have been faster). At the time of rupture, it was only 6:20 am. Seems like there must be an eager beaver in the seismo lab early in the morning, or that there is a general concern.
Or my imagination is working too hard to see something that just isn't there, lol.

Texas. 3.0

I tried to resist the urge to look at the epicenter on google maps. But, you must double check your facts. I should have just assumed it was a frackquake.

When I zoomed into the area around the epicenter, I started to think that maybe this earthquake was natural. The area is extremely built up and populated. Right beside the epicenter there is an airport, a college and lots of subdivision housing. Only a big of industrial zoning. "Wow", i thought, a natural quake. Then I found it. Right beside a housing development. A giant pond and the pumping silos. They have an injection well right in the middle of a city.

The injection well is near the intersection of Valley View Lane, and Valley Ridge Dr. If you're searching the area, it's just south of the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport.

Wow. I still had editing time?

I think Oklahoma has had two earth- frackquakes within a 12 minutes span. I almost thought they paused injection due to the bigger ones last week. But there's been a steady drip over the last few days. Of course the weekend had fewer. No one has posted the newest Okie quakes yet.

reply to post by Olivine


No, imo. It has more to do with which reporting agency has an available duty seismologist to run the calculations. In this case it was NC. As the authoritative network for that locale, and with nothing else major going on, they were probably able to get to it sooner, and pass the info onto USGS. In a nutshell it's going to depend on where it is, and what available manpower there is at the time of the quake for the authoritative network doing the reporting. But what do I know. Ask Puterman.

or maybe rezlooper?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for the input TrueAmerican. That's what I was thinking, too, but it just struck me as odd, because the magnitude was so small.

ETA: I should add, I noticed a similar "quick listing of focal mechanisms for really small quakes" when the little swarm was ongoing at Soda Bay on Clear Lake 2 weeks ago. That I totally get, because the swarm could be magmatic in origin.

Hokkaido/ Eastern Sea of Japan 22/01/2013 mag 4.9 - 5.8

Geez NIED sure went over the top on that one, never seen them be so far away from what JMA eventually put on their page.
Will have to wait 3 days for reviewed data on that.

(click on table for interactive map)
learned a new trick , been testing it at Japan Preliminary Earthquake Maps NIED

www.jma.go.jp...

Originally posted by Olivine
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Thanks for the input TrueAmerican. That's what I was thinking, too, but it just struck me as odd, because the magnitude was so small.

ETA: I should add, I noticed a similar "quick listing of focal mechanisms for really small quakes" when the little swarm was ongoing at Soda Bay on Clear Lake 2 weeks ago. That I totally get, because the swarm could be magmatic in origin.

edit on 1/23/2013 by Olivine because: I'm in a goofy mood

Actually, that edit really jarred me into thinking about the delays in processing quake data at Yellowstone that occur sometimes. But the perceived urgent necessity for determining first motions of events in a swarm (to help interpret origin) is more in my head than theirs. It's just not that urgent. Not after all the swarms they have there. They really think YS has no realistic chance of eruption any time soon. I just hope they're right. And so far, they have been.

So, I guess, breathe easy. Relax. Sip the coffee. Take the weekend off and live your dreams everyone. And hope that gamble continues to pay off. After all, it's just an active supervolcano that could kill us all at any time without much or any warning.

The fatal mistake, I contend, will be gambling on what's happening down so deep below that hotspot that no one can see. I could say more, but I won't. Why bother. I've cried wolf one too many times.

Another quake near Hokkaido, on the east side this time
06:34 JST 24 Jan 2013, 43.1N, 145.9E, 70 km, 5.2ML Nemuro-hanto Nanto-oki www.jma.go.jp...

NIED are not showing it

usgs have got 5.1mb

While Puterman is right about the overall averages going down sometimes the graphs and charts don't tell the whole story.

Mark Twain said "there are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics". And someone else said (I don't think I ever knew the true source) "If you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything". The chart below will show that Puterman was right as far as his numbers go, but sometimes you have to dig down underneath the lines on the graph to see the whole story.



Now before I get started I want to throw out the Arkansas swarm that was found to be caused by hydrofracking.

So, what do I find when I dig down? Well, in spite of an overall trend toward many fewer quakes, there are some new hot spots that, in spite of the downturn, are something to be concerned about.



First, there is the swarm in Nevada that has been going on with various ups and downs since mid December of 2012. While it is true that Nevada is part of an active quake area, there have been a little more than 260 small quakes in just over a month. The largest group being centered in and around the small town of Tonopah Junction. That is more activity in a small area than I have seen in the 4 or 5 years I have been quake watching. And like all such swarms, the real question is; are stresses being built toward a big quake, or are they being relieved and thus reducing the chances of a big one? this is one of the classic examples of the "only time will tell" scenario. BTW - If someone has a link to an archive for Nevada quakes of all sizes going back at least five years, more would be better, I would like to look at it to see if what I have been seeing and the conclusions I have drawn from it are accurate over the long term.

Next, the New Madrid fault is part of a series of faults that run all the way from southern Lake Michigan to the gulf. While the idea that this fault system is going to be responsible for splitting the United States down the middle leaving a large inland sea in it's place falls into the realm of unproven psychic prophecy, the system does exist and it has been seeing more recent activity above what is normal in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Louisiana.

There have also been anomalous quakes in the northeastern states, North Carolina, eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia.

While none of the above taken individually against the background of world wide activity amounts to much on a world wide quake graph; taken together they do constitute an increase in areas that don't normally see such activity.

Considering the structure of the North American plate these small and insignificant events are somewhat like snow flakes. One at a time they can be interesting, but when they gang up on us they can be reason for concern.

One study I saw about the North American plate shows it doing a twist against it's two halves pretty much along the fault zone that includes the New Madrid. The seismologist who did the study was very concerned that this action could set the New Madrid, and the associated faults, off and create a quake much stronger than the New Madrid quakes of 1811/1812. The 1811/1812 quakes were strong enough to ring church bells in Boston.

So, my final conclusion is that while world wide activity has slowed down, there is enough activity in other areas that don't normally see it to consider it as an increase to be worried about.

Puterman, this is for you. We may not agree or see eye to eye on some things, but you will notice I treated you in a much more civil manner in this reply than you treated me in your reply. We can compare data and learn from each other if we are civil to each other. Can you do that?

reply to post by happykat39


Excellent post, with some really interesting info and points of view.

Besides the fracking areas, the New Madrid stuff has seen to me, an uneducated eq fan, to be on the rise.

The civility in your post was also very nice to see.

Grabbing some popcorn for the upcoming data battle!

Peace

www.youtube.com...

www.cbc.ca...

dfw.cbslocal.com...

www.thetakeaway.org...

dfw.cbslocal.com...

stateimpact.npr.org...

stateimpact.npr.org...

www.wafb.com...

www.insurancejournal.com...

www.theadvertiser.com...

voicerussia.com...

www.bloomberg.com...

kosu.org...

www.bgs.ac.uk...

www.youtube.com...

www.youtube.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover

Grabbing some popcorn for the upcoming data battle!

I am not looking for a battle. In a civilized exchange of ideas both sides can learn from each other and that is a win win situation.

I have Excel files of earthquake data from the USGS 7 day worldwide list going all the way back to 2010. They are both over 36mb and have several tabs where I separated out data to study things like the Japanese quake history back to well before the Fukushima disaster to the large quakes in the Bonin Island area of Japan. I have sent U2U message to one of the moderators to find out if the T&Cs allow an exchange of e-mail addresses between members in U2U messages. If so, I will offer to e-mail both files to anyone who wants them.

reply to post by happykat39


Are there any other regions or spots of the globe that are experiencing these subtle rises like the States, or is it just here and also, are all these quake spots on the US map in fracking areas? It seems most likely that the OK and Texas quakes are from fracking, but what about the rest?

Originally posted by happykat39
First, there is the swarm in Nevada that has been going on with various ups and downs since mid December of 2012. While it is true that Nevada is part of an active quake area, there have been a little more than 260 small quakes in just over a month. The largest group being centered in and around the small town of Tonopah Junction. That is more activity in a small area than I have seen in the 4 or 5 years I have been quake watching. And like all such swarms, the real question is; are stresses being built toward a big quake, or are they being relieved and thus reducing the chances of a big one? this is one of the classic examples of the "only time will tell" scenario. BTW - If someone has a link to an archive for Nevada quakes of all sizes going back at least five years, more would be better, I would like to look at it to see if what I have been seeing and the conclusions I have drawn from it are accurate over the long term.

This is a search result from ANSS for 1984 ( beginning of records) to 2013 for Nevada.
On the text version, which has all events down to zero, the co-ordinates of the polygon are shown at the top.
If you want to look yourself and change the parameters of the magnitude or whatever copy and paste that line in where it says " Additional search parameters may be typed into the box below."
www.ncedc.org...

here is the text version 75,996 lines ( events) (7.2MB)
I converted it to Excel csv and added a YEARX column to get started in sorting the lines, its a big task, I can't map them all, the file is 7.5MB when the icons are added, GPS Visualiser has a limit of 3MB, the only way would be to break it down into sections, then merge them afterwards on Google Earth.
It would probably still end up a 4+MB KML file.
And that is after I re-set the lowest limit to 0.1 , leaves 72,121 lines (events)

the Excel file 4MB
I've left the "sort" at oldest to newest year, then each year has magnitude lowest to largest, that way you can add up the numbers and make a table.

I've only recently got interested in ANSS as a resource, I like the way you can shape the search exactly to the polygon shape.
For those interested in pursuing this avenue, I use this i-touch map to find the corners of the polygons
itouchmap.com...

Originally posted by Rezlooper
reply to post by happykat39

 

Are there any other regions or spots of the globe that are experiencing these subtle rises like the States, or is it just here and also, are all these quake spots on the US map in fracking areas? It seems most likely that the OK and Texas quakes are from fracking, but what about the rest?

My recent interest has been mostly the states, so I haven't been following worldwide hot spots as closely. As far as I know the known fracking areas are in northeast Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The rest are for the most part pure seismic. At least I haven't seen any data to the contrary, especially the clusters on the map I posted and the quakes in the north east states.

BTW - I forgot to address the concern with the Celestial Convergence site in my previous post. Yes, Andre can be a bit dramatic and over the top with some of his headlines and descriptions, but if you follow the read more links from the home page listings you will find that he does list the sources he gathered his info from.

And it is those sources I check out before I post something from his site. He doesn't make things up so much as he has a tendency toward establishment.

The real value of his site is that he gathers such a wide range of information from a very diverse set of sources. If you learn to use it right, Celestial Convergence is a one stop shopping source for information on the web.

reply to post by muzzy


Thank you so much. That is exactly what I was looking for. I have bookmarked all the links and downloaded the Excel file.

I scanned through some of the listings in that long file and I believe I was right about the huge increase in activity in Nevada recently. The list of quakes starting at about 12/17/2012 has enormous clusters but there is nothing farther back in the list, at least that I found on a quick scan, that even comes close to the recent stuff.

reply to post by ericblair4891


WOW, someone has been a busy little beaver. It will take some time to work my way through all of those links. Thanks.

Right now I am looking at the YouTube video of the New Madrid quakes of 2011/2012.

I got an answer from the moderator about exchanging e-mail addresses through the U2U messaging system. It is OK to do so. So, anyone who wants me to email my Excel files to them just give me your e-mail address.
Again, the files are a compilation of all the world wide quakes from the USGS seven day rolling list. There are a couple of minor gaps from when I was in the hospital and couldn't update the files. There are also several pages I created to extract and examine specific data for analysis. Each file is a little over 16MB for a total of 32 plus MB.

reply to post by happykat39

You are welcome, I got rained off at work, so some free time this afternoon

I mapped the last 5000 earthquakes, that takes it back to 01/01/2011 (although on the Google MAp it only has back to 26/10/2012 on the side list, the KML file does go back 5000)
goo.gl...
I couldn't see a big swarm near the Tonopah Junction, Nevada location you mentioned, unless you are referring perhaps to the USGS format of xxx km/miles west of Tonopah Junction, Nevada or something like that.
Buller Mt./Hawthorne jumps out, but that is mostly mid 2011.
Keep in mind Nevada was/could still be a Nuclear Testing ground and there seem to be a lot of other weapons testing areas in that state




I think I found your swarm, by narrowing down the time to 17/12/2012 until yesterday (644 lnes)
between Gold Mountain and Stonewall Mountain just south of Lida Junction Airstrip
goo.gl...

activity in the last few days has been Candelaria Hills to the NW though
goo.gl...

Originally posted by happykat39

BTW - I forgot to address the concern with the Celestial Convergence site in my previous post. Yes, Andre can be a bit dramatic and over the top with some of his headlines and descriptions, but if you follow the read more links from the home page listings you will find that he does list the sources he gathered his info from.

And it is those sources I check out before I post something from his site. He doesn't make things up so much as he has a tendency toward establishment.

The real value of his site is that he gathers such a wide range of information from a very diverse set of sources. If you learn to use it right, Celestial Convergence is a one stop shopping source for information on the web.

Regardless of dramatics, all of the stories on Celestial Convergence have a link at the end to back up the information. You're right, great site for getting some info that you rarely find in the MSM.