X class flare, almost direct hit Saturday

DP

They are saying northern lights could be seen in Arkansas.

Okay, something isn't right here...... We either have doomies and fear mongers in the Government now ..which is possible...or someone didn't put out the correct strength on this. Aurora in ARKANSAS??? Yes, I did see similar reports by the way, I know that IS what is being said in some places... It's the idea of it I'm blown away by. X-1 is nothing for goodness sakes. The sun had a fart. literally. It's noticable, measurable..but.. Where are these predictions coming from?! If someone dialed down GOES data for the public, I can only imagine there would be real hell to pay after it all settled down.

For reference and some base reality on all this.... I have a couple links I keep handy for just these events because the reporting out of the media often gets downright stupid.

Major Solar Storms and Earth Effects 1859 - Oct, 2003

1859 Carrington Event in basics and 1st hand accounts of living it.

Really. Either we're being lied to about the real strength...which is hard for me to believe as something that would remain successful....or there are some questionable people and motives in the public relations dept's of some Gov't agencies these days. We'll know real soon which, IMO.

Addition:

October 29, 2003 - The Halloween Storm - This Halloween Storm spawned auroras that were seen over most of North America. Extensive satellite problems were reported, including the loss of the $450 million Midori-2 research satellite. Highly publicized in the news media. A huge solar storm has impacted the Earth, just over 19 hours after leaving the sun. This is one of the fastest solar storm in historic times, only beaten by the perfect solar storm in 1859 which spent an estimated 17 hours in transit. A few days later on November 4, 2003 one of the most powerful x-ray flares ever detected, swamped the sensors of dozens of satellites, causing satellite operations anomalies….but no aurora. Originally classified as an X28 flare, it was upgrade to X34 a month later. In all of its fury, it never became a white light flare such as the one observed by Carrington in 1859. Astronauts hid deep within the body of the International Space Station, but still reported radiation effects and ocular 'shooting stars'.

^^ That comes from the last storm listed in my first link. The last sentence is what got my attention. That tells me that physical human effects ARE possible.. Occular stars? Look at the strength though. X-34? I think a solar storm would be the least of our concerns if our atmosphere was in the condition for that strength to ever get to the surface.

Originally posted by Mister1k
Kudos to the Site owner for this Data.Below
Solar Alerts
Since March 7th 2011 - Total Solar Flar Count Is:
187 M Flares
13 X Flares
1 X LDE Flare lasting 5hrs
1 M LDE Flare lasting 2hrs
2 M LDE Falres lasting 8hrs
4 M LDE Flares lasting 7hrs
1 M LDE Flare lasting 13hrs
1 X LDE Flare lasting 7hrs
2 C LDE Flares each lasting 9hrs
1 C LDE Flare lasting 4hrs
1 C LDE Flare lasting 10hrs
2 C LDE Flares lasting 4hrs
(LDE = Long Duration Event)

Largest Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 24
X6.9 Flare on 8/9/2011 @ 08:08 UTC

2012 Solar Flares:

July 2012
Total M flares = 38
Total X flares = 2

X1.4 Flare on 7/12/2012 @ 16:52 UTC - Sunspot 1520
- LDE lasting 5hrs
- CME produced- Earth Directed - ETA: July 14, 2012

M2.0 Flare on 7/10/2012 @ 06:27 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.7 Flare on 7/10/2012 @ 05:14 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.1 Flare on 7/09/2012 @ 23:07 UTC - Sunspot 1520

July 8th total M Flare count = 4
M6.9 Flare on 7/08/2012 @ 16:32 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.4 Flare on 7/08/2012 @ 12:10 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.1 Flare on 7/08/2012 @ 09:53 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.3 Flare on 7/08/2012 @ 05:46 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 7th total M Flare count = 3
M2.6 Flare on 7/07/2012 @ 11:03 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.0 Flare on 7/07/2012 @ 08:28 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.2 Flare on 7/07/2012 @ 03:15 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 6th total M Flare count = 6
July 6th total X Flare count = 1
X1.1 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 23:08 UTC - Sunspot 1515

M1.3 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 18:55 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.2 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 13:30 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.8 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 10:29 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.5 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 08:23 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.0 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 02:51 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.9 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 01:40 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 5th total M Flare count = 11
M1.6 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 21:45 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.6 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 20:14 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.2 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 13:18 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M6.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 11:44 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.8 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 10:48 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.3 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 07:45 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 06:58 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M4.7 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 03:36 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.2 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 02:42 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.4 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 01:10 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 00:43 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 4th total M Flare count = 7
M1.2 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 23:55 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M4.6 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 22:09 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.8 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 16:39 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 14:40 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 12:24 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M5.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 09:45 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 04:37 UTC - Sunspot 1515

M3.8 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 20:07 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M5.6 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 10:52 UTC - Sunspot 1515
- CME produced- ETA: July 5th
M1.1 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 00:35 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.8 Flare on 7/01/2012 @ 19:18 UTC - Sunspot 1513


July definitely is trending up. 38 M class, couple of Xs. its only the 13th.
Check June,May at the Link or

June 2012
M1.6 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 18:32 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.0 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 12:52 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.2 Flare on 6/29/2012 @ 09:20 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.4 Flare on 6/28/2012 @ 16:12 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.9 Flare on 6/14/2012 @ 14:30 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 7hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16, 2012
M1.2 Flare on 6/13/2012 @ 13:17 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 2hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16. 2012
M1.3 Flare on 6/10/2012 @ 06:45 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.8 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 16:53 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.9 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 11:32 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M2.1 Flare on 6/06/2012 @ 20:06 UTC - Sunspot 1494
M3.3 Flare on 6/04/2012 @ 17:55 UTC - Sunspot 1496

May 2012
M5.1 Flare on 5/17/2012 @ 01:43 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.7 Flare on 5/10/2012 @ 20:26 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M5.7 Flare on 5/10/2012 @ 04:18 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M4.1 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 21:05 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.8 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 14:08 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M4.7 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 12:32 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.4 Flare on 5/08/2012 @ 13:08 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.9 Flare on 5/07/2012 @ 14:31 UTC - Sunspot 1470-1471 combined
- LDE lasting 2hrs
M1.3 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 17:47 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.1 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 01:18 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.3 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 23:01 UTC - Sunspot 1476
M1.4 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 13:23 UTC - Sunspot 1476

April 2012
M1.0 Flare on 4/27/2012 @ 08:24 UTC - Sunspot 1466
M1.7 Flare on 4/16/2012 @ 17:40 UTC - Sunspot 1461

From what I read on solarham and your post this is the only earth directed x-class flare in a long time.There have been many side swipes and near misses.But what happens if this one hits dead on?

i hope the Aurora makes it down to TX, would be the most awesome thing ever

reply to post by R6A6W6


Check this video from Nasa of this event.... one of the best video captures i've seen...

news.sky.com...#

news.sky.com...

media.skynews.com...

its kicking up now
from space weather

Solar wind
speed: 373.3 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3

Here is the outlook and forecast listed at Solarham. THIS one sounds sane and half way intelligent...unlike so much of the craziness in the media for this one.

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jul 14
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Michigan... Maine.. Yes, THAT is realistic, IMO. Some of this outright stupidity in the media about visibility in Arkansas or Texas leads me to wonder what they are smoking in those newsrooms...they need to quit. It's cooking their noodles.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

Some of this outright stupidity in the media

Its a ratings game, just like ATS.
going further would be off topic

whats this, 3 lines now? ooooowwwoooooh !

I saw in some posts that the power had went out in Mashburn but I can't confirm, said it went out for no reason.

Also see another in Stockton CA? Also Sumerset (I think that's NJ)

What do we look for on twitter? #powerout ??
I see a few people saying their power went out on twitter looking for 'power out '

Originally posted by solargeddon

Originally posted by mcsteve
reply to post by Jerisa

 

They don't. The Magnetosphere and ionosphere are affected. The wether on earth is not.

Really ? And you know this how ?

Where are your sources ?

None of you actually know 100% .....Even NASA doesn't know

"We don't know yet how these affect weather or climate -- likely there is not any direct effect," he said, "but there may be, over time, influences on ozone that affect climate."

Link to Source

I'm not saying there is a direct link, but I'm not going to rule out a possible correllation either, I suggest anyone with factual proof to the contrary, please put me out of my misery

You just answered your own question. Your source says "likely there is not any direct effect".

Yes, solar activity may have an indirect effect on the mechanisms that effect climate, which in turn effect weather, but the original claim that this will have a direct effect on earth weather is simply wrong. It's right there in your own post. Read it.

People get confused because they conflate the term space weather' with the actual phenomena of weather on earth ,It's a misnomer. Ther eis no direct connection.

I personally think its common sense solar activity plays a role with our weather on Earth.... And you will find many professionals agree.

Weather on Earth can also be affected. Recently, NOAA scientists finally concluded that four factors determined global temperatures: carbon dioxide levels, volcanic eruptions, Pacific El Niño pattern, and the Sun's activity.

m.almanac.com...

There is also historical evidence that long-term periods of global cold, rainfall, drought, and other weather shifts relate to solar cycle activity: Times of depressed solar activity seem to correspond with times of global cold. For example, during the 70-year period from 1645 to 1715, few, if any, sunspots were seen, even during expected sunspot maximums. Western Europe entered a climate period known as the "Maunder Minimum" or "Little Ice Age." Temperatures dropped by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Times of increased solar activity have corresponded with global warning. During the 12th and 13th centuries, the Sun was active, and the European climate was quite mild.

And the article goes on to say....

What's Up With the Sun Now? Late 2009 brought a burst of activity, and December ended with a flurry of sunspots. During 2010, solar activity started to increase activity with several intense periods of eruption, sometimes all at once. NASA stated that "the Sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and the next few years could bring much higher levels of solar activity." During 2011, the Sun had a year of activity, but low activity. Many researchers believed the upcoming solar maximum would be weak. As of March 2012: On January 27, sunspot region 1202 unleashed a sizable X1.7-class flare from the far side of the Sun. Then, on March 5, following weeks of minor flares, the Sun launched an X1.1-class flare and a CME from active region 1429. A week-long series of M-class flares, two X-class flares, and CMEs followed as AR1429 moved across the face of the Sun (to soon rotate out of Earth's view). Predictions for Solar Cycle 24 Most solar science experts believe that both Cycle 24 and the following cycle (25) may be relatively quiet ones, leading to a cooling pattern over the next few decades. If this cooling phase on Earth is offset by any warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases, they also raise the question of whether an eventual warming cycle could lead to more rapid warming on Earth than expected. To quote Bob Berman, astronomer for The Old Farmer's Almanac, "If the upcoming solar max of Cycle 24 is normal or robust, and especially if an El Niño follows it 2 years later (as often happens), then the middle of this decade will be the hottest period since humans arrived on Earth. However, if the upcoming maximum is wimpy, as most solar researchers expect, or if the Sun is now entering an extended period of low activity, that is the best thing it could possibly do for us. Such a scenario would mitigate climate change. Essentially, the Sun has been buying us time."

Time will tell what the Sun will do and how it will affect us. Will it energize up and completely awaken or will it continue to rest somewhat? It should be reaching maximum soon.

Originally posted by MamaJ
I personally think its common sense solar activity plays a role with our weather on Earth.... And you will find many professionals agree.

You again.

Of course it likely plays a role. But the misnomer being contested is the claim that is has a direct effect on 'earth weather'. It doesn't. A solar flair will not directly impact our weather on earth. It MAY impact factors which have a long-term influence on climate, which has an impact on weather. but the effect is NOT direct.

They just mentioned on the news that there are power outages in the New Westminister area of Vancouver, but I didn't catch any reason why.

reply to post by AlexanderM

The CME has not yet arrived. There is currently no significant geomagnetic activity.

Originally posted by stanguilles7

Originally posted by MamaJ
I personally think its common sense solar activity plays a role with our weather on Earth.... And you will find many professionals agree.

You again.

Of course it likely plays a role. But the misnomer being contested is the claim that is has a direct effect on 'earth weather'. It doesn't. A solar flair will not directly impact our weather on earth. It MAY impact factors which have a long-term influence on climate, which has an impact on weather. but the effect is NOT direct.

Oh yay! Lol

Here we go again....

Think about it.... Why wouldmit not affect our weather on earth? When a cme comes into our atmosphere it brings charged particles that disturb our atmosphere and more. This flare was not all that big.... Yeah it was a strong one but nothing like it could be when the Sun reaches maximum.

'Space Weather' Affects the Earth02.13.04 The weather conditions that NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) reports won't change our plans about going to the beach. But the information it provides will help scientists understand how events on the Sun have the ability to disrupt Earth's communications, overload power grids, present a hazard to astronauts, and affect weather patterns. We call this effect on Earth "space weather."

www.nasa.gov...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by AlexanderM

 

The CME has not yet arrived. There is currently no significant geomagnetic activity.

I have been watching for it all morning, when do you think it may arrive?

Spaceweather.com doesnt have any updates although this morning the K-index was one and now its two.

Originally posted by MamaJ
I have been watching for it all morning, when do you think it may arrive?

It looks like it just did.

ACE satellite data...1 million miles out.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
Note the sudden increase in solar wind speed. We should see density increase as well.

Originally posted by Phage

Originally posted by MamaJ
I have been watching for it all morning, when do you think it may arrive?

It looks like it just did.

ACE satellite data...1 million miles out.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
Note the sudden increase in solar wind speed. We should see density increase as well.

edit on 7/14/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Whoooo Hooooo! Im watching it now. Hopefully this gets real interesting but I doubt it.

Oh and Phage, did you hear what Newt said about our power grids and being prepared for days, months or maybe years without power because of EMD or Solar Activity? I will send ya a link if you didnt read or hear what he said.

reply to post by MamaJ

I don't need the link but thanks.

One of the biggest problems in the US is that, because the power companies are mostly independent, it's very difficult to establish any sort of comprehensive mitigation plan. What we see instead is those companies developing their own plans which may or may not be effective on a wide scale.