187/188 DAYS ? ---- WOW----Strong 7.9/8m long earthquake shakes Mexico City

Originally posted by paratus
7.4
5.3
5.1
look to be subsiding

Let's make no assumptions. Japan had their 7.3, not much happened after that, and then we moved on. Then BOOM... So let's watch... That's all..

reply to post by shauny


Ah, you still got two more days for the big one. This is just a piece of the cake. Looks like Greeneye is going to be busy all day with 20 threads starting. Glad, I'm not a MOD.

From what i remember, this 188 days theory is about earthquakes powerfull enough to tilt the Earth's axis. That's what happened on Japan and Chile.

Anyway, i'm looking some damage reports here: storify.com...

there was a 7.2 on the 10th of jan, a 7.1 on the 2nd of february and now a 7.4(and falling) on the 20th march??

i really don't get how these fit the whole 188/189day hoax ?

its embarressing seeing what is happening to this site recently. the amount of suckers swallowing these mainstream hoaxes is getting ridiculous.

Originally posted by aarys
reply to post by camus154

 

We didnt have a 7.4 back in October. LOL

Yes we did ''LOL''

reply to post by camus154

I provided the calculations, based on thirty years of historic data from the NEIC (with a link to the data), in my post here on page 4 of this thread.

The odds are actually about 1 in 5 for the example of a five-day window of time. So, around an 80% chance of being wrong.


Mike

Originally posted by gwydionblack
reply to post by khimbar

 

1 People are, like it or not, cherry picking the data. You can't deny that. Earthquakes outside of the cycle are being ignored.

You are ignoring the information of the theory. It does not state that it accounts for ALL large earthquakes, but guarantees that an earthquake WILL occur in the window. There are a number of different things that cause earthquakes, the only thing is that these 188 day quakes obviously have a common occurring factor... which leads to...

2 The Earth doesn't have a clock or calendar on it, as far as I know. So how would it know when one is 'due'?

The Earth doesn't need a clock or calendar. All the theory is saying is that every 188 days, something must occur that causes an earthquake to occur. If proven to be true, I believe the next step would be to figure out exactly WHAT is happening. There are many theories, some which are more popular than others, but there are no definitive answers as of yet.

1 Ok I understand that, so the next logical question we need to ask is 'why are the 188 day earthquakes different'? What makes them different to the ones outside of the schedule?

2 So something then is acting as a clock? Planet forces, gravity, ley lines it could be anything? Something is acting as a regulator?

Seriously fricking weird.

reply to post by phoenixlights321


Thanks for your concern.So far all I know is that there is some minor damage to buildings and homes.Part of an overpass broke off and landed on top of a truck but I am not sure if the driver is alive or not.I have felt a few eathquakes since I have been here ( 7 months) but this one didn´t stop for what seemed like at least minute or so.It´s very strange because I was just reading up on the 188 day theory this morning.Once again I hope everyone is alright.Peace.

I have felt some aftershocks,but they have been minor.Even when you feel aftershocks ,you wonder if stronger shaking is about to come.What a tense day.

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
Do you realize what are the probabilities that NO earthquake above 7.0 happens in the 5 day period between April 5 and April 9?

The probabilities that I will be WRONG are VERY HIGH. It's over 90%.

So, if I'm NOT wrong, this is simply FANTASTIC and INCREDIBLE.

Get it?

There's only one slight problem with your entire example:

You left out how often these things occur.

Without that, you can't predict the probability AT ALL.

So your calculations and probabilities are utterly meaningless.

And since, as you yourself stated, this theory says NOTHING about all the 7+ earthquakes that happen "outside" the cycle, then the theory is just as meaningless.

And you forgot that I actually KNOW how often earthquakes above 7.0 happen in the world.

Those quakes happen once per month, at best. Sometimes, it takes almost 2 months for one above 7.0 to hit somewhere.

Maybe there are numerous cycles based on the Earth's position around the sun. Not just one cycle... that would explain other quakes. And YES this 188 day cycle was said to be the one related to minor axis shifts. That's all.

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by camus154

 

I provided the calculations, based on thirty years of historic data from the NEIC (with a link to the data), in my post here on page 4 of this thread.

The odds are actually about 1 in 5 for the example of a five-day window of time. So, around an 80% chance of being wrong.


Mike

edit on 20/3/12 by JustMike because: page number

80% chance of being wrong.

This is the KEY here... People don't get it...

White House: In light of today's earthquake, we can confirm that Malia Obama is safe and was never in danger
twitter

i saw a few pics of buildings that were pretty bad. also a transit bus that was halved by a falling bridge.

As a student majoring in Geology, I'm giving this a flag. It's time for scientists to start investigating this theory

reply to post by khimbar

Good question. If the theory holds up to deeper study of long-term data, I wonder if it might not be a question of what makes those quakes different of themselves, but what factor in the ongoing energy-exchange process of our planet (of which quakes are but a symptom) could precipitate such regularity in their occurrence?

That's what interests me, anyway, as while there are obviously similar sized quakes outside that window, that's not the issue -- though some are trying to make it into one! Trying to figure out the process could be useful as it might help to predict quakes that don't occur at those intervals.

Mike

Originally posted by paratus
White House: In light of today's earthquake, we can confirm that Malia Obama is safe and was never in danger
twitter

i saw a few pics of buildings that were pretty bad. also a transit bus that was halved by a falling bridge.

Dear WhiteHouse,

We don't give a # about Malia Obama, what do you know about this earthquake cycle???? And is the other Obama daughter in Mexico as well? Are they there to wait it out? And where exactly is emperor Obama gonna be in Denver tomorrow night?

Sincerely,
A guy with questions....


I would totally send that to them.. lol

Originally posted by sure57
Magnitude 6.2 - PAPUA, INDONESIA
This was 5 min prior to Mexico Quakes across the Ocean

well that one is not surprising, it's Indonesia.

reply to post by GLontra

Yes, and that's why I think that if it holds up statistically over a longer term then it's worth investigating futher. Any sort of anomaly is worth checking out. Even if it's only to ultimately discard it as a dead end -- as often happens in science -- earnest researchers are bound to learn new things along the way, or at the very least review their concepts of what they already thought they knew..

Mike

Originally posted by GLontra
And you forgot that I actually KNOW how often earthquakes above 7.0 happen in the world.

Those quakes happen once per month, at best. Sometimes, it takes almost 2 months for one above 7.0 to hit somewhere.

Lol, I didn't "forget", you didn't bother to include that in your example.

Regardless, ok...I give up. Major quakes (is it 7.0 or did you settle on 7.5? Does it really matter?) happen at 188 day intervals--as well as at other times.

Great. And from that we can conclude.....

....absolutely nothing.

and another 5.1
making that 4 total

Some people just don't get it, and it's not difficult.

February 28, 2010 rolls along and Chile gets an 8.8. Let's forget the other 6-7 mag quakes, and just start counting 188 days from this date? Got it? Ok, well it's early September now, 188 days later and a 7.1 hits Canterbury. Understand that 7s don't pop out every week, and half of the time you don't even get one a month. Following 188 days later from this date, we get the 9.0 in Japan, but on the 186th day, we had a 7 foreshock. Since another 7 mag separated another megaquake with the 7.3 in Fiji, on September 15, 2011, 188 days again, this could be indicative of this being a foreshock to the larger event in the next 36 hours.

However, all these threads will go away, or will continue depending on the next 36 hours. It might seem funny or stupid, but if another very large quake does happen on Wednesday-Thursday, then my pants will be shat, personally.