187/188 DAYS ? ---- WOW----Strong 7.9/8m long earthquake shakes Mexico City

Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

They aren't being ignored. This cycle is about SPECIFIC BIG quakes. I don't believe this is the one, I think this is a foreshock.. Please read all info on the theory before claiming people are cherry picking.

Looks like a 5.1 aftershock just hit.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Two points:

1. The 188 day earthquake theory is not meant to explain all large earthquakes. Of course there will be other large quakes that do not fall on these days and are caused by other forces. Those that complain about cherry-picking the data do not seem to understand this distinction.

2. We are still a day early here with the 188 days, even considering leap year. There could very well be a larger quake in the 24-48 hours ahead. Remember, Japan has a couple days of 7.x quakes leading up to the 9.

Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

Take a look at that list again.

Do you see any quake above 7.0 in the month of November 2011?

Be honest, and calculate the REAL MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITES of a quake above 7.0 strike in any given random interval of 5 days (like the interval between March 20 and March 24)...

If you calculate it, you will see that the probabilites are FAIRLY LOW!

reply to post by SilentKoala

True, it could be a foreshock but unfortunately we won't know until/unless the bigger one happens. Also, whether there might be a bigger one (I assume you mean in the same region) depends on the faults there and the amount of energy they're holding that can be released. I know for sure that Mexico has had bigger quakes than this but I don't know enough about that Sthn Mexico region's fault geology. I mainly have been studying some US regions, a couple around the Med and off Portugal, Japan and some other Asian regions, and Chile.

So, if you have more info that suggest a larger event is possible there, please share it. I mean this sincerely and in no way intend any sarcasm. I think we'd like to know.

Many thanks,

Mike

Originally posted by GLontra

Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

Take a look at that list again.

Do you see any quake above 7.0 in the month of November 2011?

Be honest, and calculate the REAL MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITES of a quake above 7.0 strike in any given random interval of 5 days (like the interval between March 20 and March 24)...

If you calculate it, you will see that the probabilites are FAIRLY LOW!

Exactly like I said....pretty wiggy and fricking odd!

I am absolutely amazed....

ever since elenin I have disregarded most of these kinds of predictions

for the 188 theory I just said, OK it might be true, lets see what happens... well this is it!

Originally posted by seenavv
I am absolutely amazed....

ever since elenin I have disregarded most of these kinds of predictions

for the 188 theory I just said, OK it might be true, lets see what happens... well this is it!

Not quite.. The window just opened. People still don't agree on WHEN the 188th day is. Give it til tomorrow night.

Any specialist in statistics in the house?

What are the exact mathematical probabilities of a earthquake above 7.0 in the Richter scale to hit in any given random interval of 5 days?

For example, take the random interval between March 10 and March 14 (10, 11, 12, 13 and 14). What were the mathematical probabilities of an earthquake with magnitude above 7.0 happening in that randomly chosen interval?

Originally posted by GLontra
Any specialist in statistics in the house?

What are the exact mathematical probabilities of a earthquake above 7.0 in the Richter scale to hit in any given random interval of 5 days?

For example, take the random interval between March 10 and March 14 (10, 11, 12, 13 and 14). What were the mathematical probabilities of an earthquake with magnitude above 7.0 happening in that randomly chosen interval?

Math makes me nauseous....

Well, whoever was the first to find the 188 day pattern should also be proud of inventing a new scientific term "Earthquake Season".

Originally posted by cayote

Originally posted by -W1LL
reply to post by JustMike

 

thanks for sharing that info I would just like to add this is not the biggest one we will se a bigger one in the coming 2 months 10 days before may 6 is the time to watch.

what is your proof or theory of that?

If I had proof I would be a rich man!! if you would like you can view my post history and my theory which started just before the march 11 quake in japan last year. in a thread Extreme Super Moon & Current Rise in sun Activity: Effects on earth

and as I just posted in the quake watch thread I felt this quake for some reason I did not see it online on any seizmos i had a feeling I googled then I posted in quake watch. www.abovetopsecret.com...

no proof just my feelings observations and theory.

if you look at the moon and its approaching perigee we are approaching this years closest perigee on may 6, I believe the constant push and pull that the moon creates on earth Has a substantial and noticed effect april 7th will be the next perigee I think we will see another rise in moderate quakes during this approach, I see it around the ring of fire but that could be because I am focusing on the RING I don't believe I am tho.

like I said no proof just my observations and feeling if you read my thread you may see it you may not, I just feel I have the responsibility to say something so at the very least people who live around active fault lines can be a little more prepared.

an interesting thing to note I mentioned in quake watch as-well the moons current position was right over the and just passing the area where the quake happened. some time has passed since then but you can see the current position of the moon here. Current moon view of earth

Originally posted by GLontra
None of those were above 7.5

So, quakes of magnitude above 7.5 DON'T HAPPEN every month...

A quake of magnitude above 7.5 is a NOTICEABLE EVENT, even if there are no casualties.

It's VERY ODD that this quakes happened almost in the date predicted by the "188 days theory".

Ugh. I see, so now you're raising the bar to 7.5? Isn't that convenient.

Doesn't matter. They also don't happen every 188 days either. From the same source, the last 7.5+ earthquake was July 6, 2011.

That's 258 days.

See how that works?

another source

www.wdbj7.com... tory

It is in the "general" area that the 188 video had "predicted" and I don't mean the guys US prediction. But at least the continent in which he said it would likely happen.

S&F

I believe it like 45.6%.

reply to post by camus154


Exactly! There are around 18 quakes every year at this strength.

If you want to find meaning in 188, you will find it everywhere.

Example - Occult Numerology (Gematria)

1+8+8 = 17
1+7 = 8
8, or Chet in Hebrew, is the number of new beginnings. So every 188 days we have a new beginning!

Or for Christians -

The ark carried EIGHT persons to a new beginning for man on earth (Gen 7.13). A male baby (a new creation) was circumcised on the EIGHTH day (Gen 17.12). The conversation between Nicodemus and Jesus regarding new birth mentions 'born' EIGHT times (Jn 3.1-8). The EIGTH day starts a new week.

Seem ridiculous? Yes, so does this....

Originally posted by GLontra
Any specialist in statistics in the house?

What are the exact mathematical probabilities of a earthquake above 7.0 in the Richter scale to hit in any given random interval of 5 days?

For example, take the random interval between March 10 and March 14 (10, 11, 12, 13 and 14). What were the mathematical probabilities of an earthquake with magnitude above 7.0 happening in that randomly chosen interval?

Okay, according to my search of the NEIC database here, there were 417 quakes between March 20 1982 and yesterday. So, 417 in 30 years works out at 13.9 quakes per year.

Not allowing for leap years (as honestly it will not make a huge difference for this kind of ballpark figure), that means on average, we can expect one mag 7-plus quake every 26.25 days. (365/13.9)

So, if we select any random five-consecutive-day period, then the odds of a mag 7-plus in that time are one-fifth of 26.25, or one in 5.25. That comes out at 19.05%.

The odds drop off sharply as the magnitude goes up. For example, if we consider quakes of mag 7.5 or above in that same time period, there were only 130 of them. For mag 8.0 or bigger, there were only 25. (They were not very evenly distributed. There have been several years with no mag 8 quakes, other years with one, and some with two or three, and 2007 had four.)

Mike

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
None of those were above 7.5

So, quakes of magnitude above 7.5 DON'T HAPPEN every month...

A quake of magnitude above 7.5 is a NOTICEABLE EVENT, even if there are no casualties.

It's VERY ODD that this quakes happened almost in the date predicted by the "188 days theory".

Ugh. I see, so now you're raising the bar to 7.5? Isn't that convenient.

Doesn't matter. They also don't happen every 188 days either. From the same source, the last 7.5+ earthquake was July 6, 2011.

That's 258 days.

See how that works?

Don't try to change and spin the facts.

The "theory" NEVER said it can predict EVERY major quake in the world, nor said that every major quake is related to the "cycle".

The "theory" said: every 188 days, a large quake (above 7.0) happens somewhere in the world. It may happen 2 or 3 days earlier, or 2 or 3 days after the target date, but it ALWAYS happen.

cnn story on it


edition.cnn.com...

Mexico City (CNN) -- A strong earthquake rattled residents in Mexican resort towns and the nation's capital Tuesday, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries.

Originally posted by alysha.angel
cnn story on it


edition.cnn.com...

Mexico City (CNN) -- A strong earthquake rattled residents in Mexican resort towns and the nation's capital Tuesday, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries.

Mexico City has more than 5 million houses. It will take a while until reports come of houses that were at least superficially damaged, but they will come...

Isn't Obamas daughter there?
Malia?

www.montrealgazette.com...