A war with Iran could lead to ...

if the U.S. invades Iran and/or North Korea, one of the following will happen:

1) the U.S will get bogged down and be left more vulnerable, unless it's willing to start a nuclear war that could lead to WWIII.

2) the U.S. will make more enemies and/or lose allies as it shows it's willing to invade whichever country it likes, forgoing the opinion of the rest of the world. More enemies means more countries on the to-attack list

3) If the U.S. gets into a pattern of attacking whichever country it deems an enemy, without seeking or even listening to the opinion of the rest of the world, it will increasingly be seen as a world danger. Pax Americana will become a status quo where other countries hate the U.S., but are too damned afraid of the American military to do anything about it. In other words, the U.S. will have cowed the world into submission.

I think you'll find that the only reason America is deemed so powerful is because it is a major nuclear power, otherwise america is actually quite weak. Its currency of the dollar is forever becoming less and less valuable, the American millitary is not equiped with very good/reliable weaponary, and isnt trained as well as some are. Its just the threat that America could fire a nuclear missle anywhere it chooses, and has lots of them that scares the world.

EDIT: So therefore its not the MILLITARY that would scare people, its the ballistic missles that do..

[edit on 12-9-2004 by The_Squid]

"I think you'll find that the only reason America is deemed so powerful is because it is a major nuclear power, otherwise america is actually quite weak. Its currency of the dollar is forever becoming less and less valuable, the American millitary is not equiped with very good/reliable weaponary, and isnt trained as well as some are. Its just the threat that America could fire a nuclear missle anywhere it chooses, and has lots of them that scares the world. "

And all of this is said usually by jealous people that don't live in the United States. The American military is NOT equiped with very good equipment?!?! France, U.K., Isreal, Russia, China, Japan, possibly Germany all have nukes. It's not fear people around the world have, it's respect.

Ok lets get logical. Iraq has about 25 million populations. US send 125,000 troops to Iraq and then after invasion, they sent another 24,000 and then another 10,000 (I believe). Iran has three times the populations; we make our own tanks, missiles, planes, radars and basically most military equipments and unlike Iraq, we have over one million trained soldiers. How many US soldiers do you think is going to take to invade Iran?? You do the counting.

Clearly Iran has good relations with Russia and North Korea because they are prime suppliers of advanced technologies weapons. I am still not clear if China has direct links to Iran, but it is definitely involved by having links to Russia and North Korea.

Iran is a major oil supplier to china; do you really think china will let its enemy to take over its oil supply??
We have an oil swapping deal with Russia. They transfer their crude to us in Caspian Sea and we transfer the same amount in Persian Gulf to their customers. Russians are making huge money selling oil trough Iran. Do you really think Russians will let their enemy jeopardize this?

There is another issue; I understand that Turkey and Iran support each other.

Other than Iraq and Afghanistan which are occupied by US, other neighboring countries have very good relationships with Iran and won let US to use its base.
At the end of the Iran/Iraq war, Kuwait allowed Iraq to use its air base to attack Iran. One day Iranian F14s went and bombed the hell of their airbase and then we warned them that their oil ships and oil platforms gonna get bombed, next thing you know they kick the Iraqis out. (maybe that�s why saddam got pissed off and invaded Kuwait after that).
This is what would happen if any neighboring country helps US in the war against Iran, the only different is, we have missiles and we have lots of them so we don�t have to fly anywhere in order to bomb something.

During my research I have also found out that Iran and Al-quaida have always been enemies and that eventually Iran supported the Taleban regime in order to fight Al-quaida.

Taliban are Afghans. Al-quaida are mostly Arabs. Both were trained and funded by CIA to fight the soviets in Afghanistan. After soviets were kicked out, Taliban got the control of most of the Afghanistan. The other parts were control by northern alliance (another afghan group). Pakistan, US and a private investor (Osama Bin Ladan) where in control of Taliban and Al-quaida. Northern alliances were funded and supplied by Iran.
In 2001 when US launched an attack in Afghanistan, US asked for our help and we helped them a lot. We gave them the intelligent of Al-quaida and Taliban�s where about, we asked northern alliances to use their troops, we let US planes to fly over Iran to bomb Taliban and Al-quaida and finally US asked us to rescue any pilot which their plane has been shut down.
And right after US success in Afghanistan, Bush labeled us as �axis of evil�. How funny is that?

Germany does not have nukes. We had some stationed on NATO airbases but I am not sure if this is still the case.

My countries viewpoint in this remains unclear to me. I am not sure if we have intelligence sources in Iran - I think we have the problem of not having them. I just know that Iranian politics have stronger ties to Muslims living in Germany than to Muslims in France.

While the religious right wing extreme has it's strong ties to France, the Muslims in my country have the ties to the politics.
I am not sure if this is worth anything, I hope so.

I know the lifelines of some important "unknown" politics over there, they are very friendly to the west and seek the open dialogue between the different cultures. Believe it or not - there is a good chance that Iran will turn it all into good.

Unless the west gives them time.

[edit on 12-9-2004 by shoo]

Originally posted by xpert11
Even Bush isnt crazy enough to attack Iran.

Oh, wow, I wish i could beleive you, however, even as we speak, those plans are being drawn, and if this administration is foolishly elected again(?) not two weeks after the election we'll be at their doorstep. This you can count on. We will be responsible for having given that chaotic team in DC carte blanche for anything their little heart desires. And this is what they desire. Mark my words.

Let's just pretend for a moment that things got completely out of hand over there. This is the worse than worst case scenario:

Israel destroys Iran's nuclear reactor and Iran retaliates against Dimona. America locks down Iraqi airspace and starts mobilizing troops to create a sepearations force in Iraq.
Israel tests us in Iraq, resulting in issolated clashes between the US and Israel. Israel then begins violating Saudi Airspace to attack Iran, but America quietly creates un-defended corridors in Iraq for them to use as well.
Iran launches silkworms at an American carrier in the persian gulf and launches massive attacks on Israeli airbases, possibly with chemical weapons.
Israel acts to destroy Iran's chemical weapons and airforce with nuclear strikes.

Turkey changes it's mind about hosting US troops and airpower, slowing our reaction time. They urge NATO to issue a warning that further WMD exchanges will recieve retaliation as if they were launched upon a NATO member. They press the UN for sanctions on Israel

Russia jumps on the band wagon for santions on Israel and mentions the phrase "regime change" but vows only to fight with a UN mandate, ensuring they will not have to fight.

China sends a small number of SU-30s with Chinese pilots to Iran and signs a mutual protection pact with Iran.

North Korea offers Iran a nuclear weapon to be used against any American invasion. Allied intelligence discovers this transaction. An American submarine sinks the ship transporting the weapon not far from Korea.

Saudi Arabia experiences a coup and Egypt is on the verge of one as well. Egypt and Saudi Arabia attack Israel, rallying Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon to their side.

Being unable to land forces in any friendly part of the middle east without braving Iranian or Egyptian waters, the US decides on an amphibious invasion of Lebanon under a massive air attack.

In the days before the landing, America all but immobilizes the Saudi Army before it reaches the theater of battle by targeting fuel trucks. America quickly discovers that war can be both easy and fun when the other army carries the burden of movement.

At the beginning of the second week of the war, US Marines and Army Rangers lead the way into Lebanon from air and sea. They are followed by a steady stream of armor and artillery that had originally been intended to reinforce positions in Iraq. America has an open road to Damascus and has the Syrian army cut off from home- Syria surrenders. Jordan immediately follows suit.

Egypt appeals to Iran to enter the war, but China can see that their deterrent alliance can only get them in trouble now. China quietly restrains Iran. The war is hardly a month old when Egypt surrenders.

Enemy casualties could easily be between 10 and 20 thousand. Israel would be looking at 5 or 10 thousand. America might lose 500 to 1000.

Now America is staring at another ugly occupation, this time of 4 nations. Egypt isn't so holy, so you occupy that under a very formal UN rebuilding that will internationalize the Suez, open up Giza, and make sure that Egypt loves McDonalds before we give them their country back.
Saudi Arabia has to be let go almost right away because we've already got a Jihad on our hands. I figure Bush would install a Bin Laden family government that was personally loyal to Cheney.
I wouldn't be completely shocked if we tried to let Turkey annex Syria, or at least rebuild them on our dime into a turkish puppet.
We'd probably let Israel sort things out in Jordan (occupy them for the next 50 years).


Really it would only be bad politically. It creates a new cold war between American and China, and it costs us trillions of dollars and decades of headaches. On the otherhand, it makes two of the most powerful nations in the middle east our b*tch and it pushes back Iran's nuclear ambitions.


Whats really gonna happen is this: Israel bombs Iran's reactor. Everyone talks about it.

[Maybe you haven't heard, but the UK, France, and Germany - THATS RIGHT, FRANCE AND GERMANY - have submitted a deadline to Iran to prove they do not have a nuclear weapons program, or the matter will be brought in front of the UN security council and all 3 will vote to dissarm them by force. Add the US to that list. Now thats the US, UK, France, and Germany - the majority of European power - all on the bandwagon.

What could happen in the next 25 years is that Iraq attacks it neighbour with arms Supplied by the americans of course the americans also trained the new Iraq army.

Not likely - the UN (unless it is proven that Iran has no nuclear weapons program) will attack Iran. The fact is that Europe is more scared of Iran then the US is. Why you ask? Because Iran can hit anywhere in Europe with it's missles. That can't be said about the US.


There only one flaw with that argument countries only listen do the UN when it suits them. Correct me if Im wrong but didnt FRANCE AND GERMANY vote against disarming Iraq by force in the UN. If America called on countries to disarm Iran by force the first thing they would ask is Iran nuke wepons program like Iraqs WMDs!

Europe dosnt want to have anything to do with the middle east. The UN is split on how to deal with rougue countries that have WMDs . The USA isnt a bottomless pit of man power where are the troops going to come from for your attack on Iran?

The US is struggling to rebuilt two countries little own three.
You also place the New Iraq government in an awarkd spot.

[ Oh, wow, I wish i could beleive you, however, even as we speak, those plans are being drawn, and if this administration is foolishly elected again(?) not two weeks after the election we'll be at their doorstep. This you can count on. We will be responsible for having given that chaotic team in DC carte blanche for anything their little heart desires. And this is what they desire. Mark my words.

Its just as well there is a big diffence between a plan and action. Let me guess if they have luntic plans to attack Iran they dont have a plan to rebuilt the countrie after the bombing is over. People in high places learn very slowly.

Before sacryfying another country to the whim of Mr. Evil aka George Bush and Mr. Mega Ariel Sharon, we should adress the cause of the middle-eastern conflict which is israel and it's illegal weapons programme...

Didnt Iran hate Israel before its nuke wepons program became public?
Iran would have started its nuke program even if israel didnt have its own nuke program. Israel would be alot worse off if Iran developed nukes and Israel didnt have any method of detent This could turn out to be another cold war arms race.