Solar Activity Watch 2012

Hope you have your popcorn ready 'cause it's here!! Check out the windspeeds and kp index at Solarham and the magnetoshere sim.

Anyone in the northern lat should see some cool aurora action.

The solar wind currently has a north turn (Bz) which wouldn't be very conducive to auroral activity. But the speed and density have kicked up a bit so if it takes a south turn things could change.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Does anybody have any update on the magnetic portal? I am most interested in is it still every 8 minutes.

science.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


How long do these lights last for?

reply to post by Phage


Thanks for that clarification Phage. I didn't mean to mislead people, but you're right, southward Bz means widespread auroras according to the spaceweather guys. And, this time around it just ain't happening so far.

What I have a hard time grasping and maybe you could clarify, how do they know, or even, can they know in advance, when the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) or Bz will be southward? Does it have something to do with the Parker spiral?

Even though the Bz is not southward, will those in the really high lats(ie Alaska) still be able to see auroras?

And what is the By (as opposed to the Bz)?

Source: Magnetosphere sim

If you would answer my pestering questions I would be ever so grateful as I've been trying to figure this out for over a year, bits and pieces here and there.
Thanks.

Hey Hey Hey, there she goes, turning southward. Ya'll up north let us know if the night show is on.

reply to post by SCGrits

The data comes from the ACE satellite which is about 1 million miles out, between the Earth and the Sun. Other than that, it isn't known what the solar wind is going to do.

The Bz component is the "vertical" component, parallel to Earth's magnetic field. The By component is perpendicular to that.

This pair of threads might help in understanding what the RTMS is representing.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Phage


Phage you are a godsend with your ability to put such technical information on a layman's level of understanding! Thank you so much for those links. I feel like the veil of confusion has been lifted from my eyes 'cause I understand so much more now. I now know the "why is that" and "what's causing that?!" of what I've been looking at over the last few months, especially the red and blue lines and their connection to the Bz orientation.

Glad you're here

Massive sunspot region coming around the top left limb.

4096 Sun #1
4096 Sun #2

SDO

Updated 3/4/2012 @ 12:20 UTC

Long Duration M-Class Flare A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC.

The latest blast was again centered around Sunspot 1429 located in the northeast quadrant. A 46 minute long 10cm Radio Burst, also known as a TenFlare, was recorded as well and measured 750 pfu.
Sometimes Long Duration flares can produce bright Coronal Mass Ejections. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information. You can also follow the latest updates on SolarHam Facebook and clicking "LIKE". SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1126 UTC Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 04 1135 UTC End Time: 2012 Mar 04 1212 UTC Duration: 46 minutes Peak Flux: 750 sfu Description:
A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background.

This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

source(solarham.com...

Looks like it's a beta-gamma-delta now. The SW seems to be coalescing quick on top of it.

Could be a bumpy week coming up depending on Earth's footprint.

reply to post by murkraz


New eruption from that region.M9.5

Curious what it will bring the coming week

edit: gone up to X-class now

Solar flare was from that big sunspot group 1429.

lasp.colorado.edu...

stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov...

sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

I have a bad feeling about this one. I told my wife when I saw it coming around and then the M-3 erupted, that this one could be big. I am always worried about a mid-range X class directed at us. Hopefully it will just throw a couple of big Ms at us and I can get some great Auroras. I think it might stop snowing for a few days this week and would love to take the kids out for some Northern Lights again.

The problem is the long duration.

Because came from a group of sunspots.

Which are unstable.

And facing Earth soon.

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT: A major solar flare reaching X1.1 peaked at 04:09 UTC early Monday morning. The flare was centered around Sunspot 1429 and produced a bright CME. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

Major X Class Solar Flare A long duration and major X1.1 solar flare peaked at 04:09 UTC Monday morning around Sunspot 1429. A strong R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest STEREO Behind and Lasco images.

The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. This is the 10th largest solar flare of the current Sunspot Cycle and it also happens to be the 10th X-Class flare as well.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates. You can also follow the latest updates on SolarHam Facebook and clicking "LIKE". SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1 Begin Time: 2012 Mar 05 0230 UTC Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 05 0409 UTC End Time: 2012 Mar 05 0443 UTC X-ray Class: X1.1 Optical Class: 2b Location: N15E54 NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

source(solarham.com...

Looks like we have two beta-gamma-delta spots now. The top-left one is just nasty looking.

www.solen.info...

Goes like this for March 5th 2012,

34 gev_20120305_0230 2012/03/05 02:30:00 04:43:00 04:05:00 X1.1 N19E58 ( 1429 )

35 gev_20120305_1029 2012/03/05 10:29:00 10:36:00 10:31:00 C2.3 N16E50 ( 1429 )

36 gev_20120305_1205 2012/03/05 12:05:00 12:21:00 12:13:00 C5.8 N16E49 ( 1429 )

source(
www.lmsal.com...

Event# EName Start Stop Peak GOES Class Derived Position (SECCHI/EUVI (BEACON) or EIT High Cadence Wavelength) 1 gev_20120306_0548 2012/03/06 05:48:00 05:58:00 05:52:00 C3.0 N21E24 ( 1430 )

source(www.lmsal.com...


Is like shooting a huge gun with maser

EIT High Cadence Wavelength)

LATEST Activity Level -- HIGH -- 1 X-, 6 M-, and 18 C-class flares in past two day

Earth's footprint is over the 1429 mega spot. Any big flares today pose a large risk.

That is, on top of what is already on the way with the CH stream and the glancing blow from what looked to be a full halo event yesterday.

Originally posted by murkraz
Earth's footprint is over the 1429 mega spot. Any big flares today pose a large risk.

Yes is red code now.