Solar Activity Watch 2012

I wonder what will happen then,

TextThe electric flux through any closed surface is proportional to the enclosed electric charge.[1] The law was formulated by Carl Friedrich Gauss in 1835, but was not published until 1867.[2] It is one of the four Maxwell's equations which form the basis of classical electrodynamics, the other three being Gauss's law for magnetism, Faraday's law of induction, and Ampère's law with Maxwell's correction. Gauss's law can be used to derive Coulomb's law,[3] and vice versa. Gauss's law may be expressed as: where is the electric flux through a closed surface S, Q is the total charge enclosed within S, and ε0 is the electric constant. The electric flux is defined as a surface integral of the electric field: Because the flux is defined as an integral of the electric field, this expression of Gauss's law is called the integral form. Gauss's law can alternatively be written in the differential form: where ∇ · E is the divergence of the electric field, and ρ is the charge density. The integral and differential forms are related by the divergence theorem, also called Gauss's theorem. Each of these forms can also be expressed two ways: In terms of a relation between the electric field E and the total electric charge, or in terms of the electric displacement field D and the free electric charge. Gauss's law has a close mathematical similarity with a number of laws in other areas of physics, such as Gauss's law for magnetism and Gauss's law for gravity. In fact, any "inverse-square law" can be formulated in a way similar to Gauss's law: For example, Gauss's law itself is essentially equivalent to the inverse-square Coulomb's law, and Gauss's law for gravity is essentially equivalent to the inverse-square Newton's law of gravity. Gauss's law can be used to demonstrate that all electric fields inside a Faraday cage have an electric charge. Gauss's law is something of an electrical analogue of Ampère's law, which deals with magnetism.

source(en.wikipedia.org...'s_law

reply to post by diamondsmith


Here is a great refresher course for everyone on the thread.

Our solar system 101. Seek the truth.

Incoming CME
www.space weather.com

Indeed, an M3-class flare producing an earthbound cme.

so what all should be expected when it gets here, besides the light show of auroras?

Originally posted by lyons666
so what all should be expected when it gets here, besides the light show of auroras?

Pretty much the light show of auroras. I'll have to go watch the solar wind animations again but with the M1 yesterday leading in front of this M3, the aurora might be strong since the magnetosphere will already be disturbed a bit from that leading surge. Let me update later on with the animations and we'll see how this should play out.

Absolute worst case would be some minor communications and power disruptions but that would take some pretty special circumstances and the odds are not favorable at this time.

--Edit:
I doubt I can link the animation embedded in the thread but I'll try:



Basically, looks like we will get a decent hit from the CME and I expect some amazing aurora pics taken between 0:00 and 06:00 GMT on Feb 22.
Link to NASA solar wind animation in case the embed above does not work:
NASA Solar Wind Animation

Originally posted by diamondsmith
off site content,
"1960 AD - Gold and Hoyle: energy released in a flare previously stored in magnetic field.
1960 AD - Moreton observes flare explosion produces waves in the solar atmosphere.
1961 AD - Magnetopause boundary detected by Explorer 10 spacecraft.
1962 AD - Warwick discovers Polar Cap Absorption related to 10 million-Volt particles.
1963 AD - Eugene Parker calculates how magnetic reconnection might work in a solar flare.
1963 AD - Type IV radio flares are found to be related to proton acceleration.
1963 AD - Furth proposes a new process that leads to solar flares.
1964 AD - Petscheck concludes reconnection easily happens as fast as actual flare events.
1965 AD - AMPTE satellite detects the ring current
1966 AD - Fairfield and Cahill show magnetic activity determined by polarity of solar wind.
1967 AD - Alfven and Carlquist propose 'current disruption' process that act quickly.
1968 AD - OGO-5 satellite detects magnetic activity in the geotail region
1968 AD - Akasofu proposes that 'magnetic substorm' describe auroral changes
1968 AD - Bumba shows flares are common where two sunspot groups are merging.
1968 AD - Axford proposes a polar wind to replenish the plasmasphere
1968 AD - David Rust confirms that explosions occur in magnetic fields of sunspots.
1971 AD - Najita proposes hite light flares caused by bombardment of upper photosphere.
1971 AD - Lin and Hudson propose hard X-ray burst evidence for 100,000 volt electron beams.
1971 AD - Brown proposes flare model where electrical current flow down a magnetic loop.
1971 AD - OSO-7 satellite discovers 'Coronal transients'
1972 AD - August 4 - Apollo 17 major flare. Could have been lethal if astronauts in space.
1974 AD - Altschuler shows coronal magnetic field changes drastically around a flare region.
1989 AD - March 8-13 Major solar flare, X15 - Quebec Electrical Blackout
2001 AD - April 2 - Solar flare X20 - major flare
2003 AD - November 4 - Major X28 flare ends a period of solar storms which began October 28th.
2003 AD - November 11 Solar flare reproduced under laboratory conditions."source(www.solarstorms.org...

edit on 30-12-2011 by diamondsmith because: f

Hmmmmmm....Pics or it didn't happen!

reply to post by nydsdan

Thanks for the info...
I have a feeling you may be quite busy this year on your solar activity thread..great job though, people like me will want to know whats up..or coming down, i should say..lol
thanks again..

reply to post by nydsdan


So by looking at your animation, the ETA will be in about 3 days?

We should be okay. I read that the faster the CME, the more damage it will do.

This one is going slow.
---------
The Carrington Event CME took 18 hours to get here.

Originally posted by lasertaglover
Incoming CME
www.space weather.com

Yes, that's the website to go to.

CME launched at earth Jan. 19,2012 @ 1630 hours

Time to Impact : Jan. 21,2012 @ 2230 hours

There should be a great aurora show over Anchorage, AK.

For those interested it seems the CME has arrived. I noticed it last night, UTC time 0700, and it's still going strong. Take a gander at the magneto sim here. If you go to the space site here you can see the data in graph form and cipher out the time line by using the speed graph (4th one down). Looks like the wind speeds peaked around 0900 UTC.

Anyway, thought ya'll might find it interesting. Should be cool auroras where the weather is nice (like not here - 3 days cold wet rainy-ugh).

The magnetosphere just fascinates the heck outta me! The pressure image kinda looks like angel wings, and the magnetic field image looks like a cicada on steroids! Hey I've got an active imagination what can I say. Gotta luv the fact that we are fortunate to have such a protective shield around the earth, else we'd be fried, from how I understand it.

Puterman, love your site, especially the solar wind prediction link!

Hi Guys, I'm back again just to let ya know we just had a M8.7 class flare from sunspot 1402 according to solarham.com. Not sure yet at this point if it's earth directed. It peaked at 0400 UTC (11 pm EST).

ANOTHER SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an M9-class solar flare from sunspot 1402. The explosion, which peaked at 0359 UT on Jan. 23rd, likely hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data from several spacecraft arrive.

www.spaceweather.com...

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

"Little doubt" They are saying are the chances of a strong blow headed to earth between Jan 24-25...
Wow, the sun is looking very active(edit)already in this early 2012.
What do we expect???Anything from the experts here ATS????

www.spaceweather.com...


Strongest since 2005, and is coming in fast..Says NOAA...

reply to post by lyons666


Can you link to where they say strongest since 2005?

reply to post by Chadwickus


It was changed to 2006 of Dec..Been having trouble getting think on here..Will try again.

www.facebook.com... diction-Center/232532740131296

NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center (on facebook)..sorry its just not working for me..im still learning..

Here is the link.www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by Snakeybasterds


Thanks, I was about to try that one...

reply to post by lyons666


No problem, glad to help out.

Awesome, thanks guys.