Solar Activity Watch 2012

Originally posted by diamondsmith

Originally posted by murkraz
Earth's footprint is over the 1429 mega spot. Any big flares today pose a large risk.

Yes is red code now.

Indeed, the coronal hole stream associated with CH506 is hitting Earth soon as well.

We just had an M-class. We should see how or if it hit Earth on the ENLIL spiral soon.

new eruption from region 1429.
This time X5.4
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Just lovely. Isn't 1429 facing the earth?

reply to post by VinnieBennz


If there is a CME involved with the eruption it will be headed for earth yes, maybe we wont get the full blast but we will surely see some geomagnetic activity. Soon more data will be available...

Scale of the size of this region compared to earth

Its a near fit

Another X flare in progress, follow here

I figured it would spit out an earth-directed M class or two, but not an X5! This could be bad, especially if another X does pop off at us on top of CH504, and at least one C or M class flare already.

most recent notice from SWPC states second x flare was x1.3

any notes on how two so close combined will affect us?

S4-S5 radiation storm, grounded flights near the pole, possible damage to satellites, possible aurora stretching large portions of the globe. The grimmest = grid damage. Let's hope it stops spitting out X class flares...

reply to post by mandms33


If you check the 1min data i think there were 3 flares in the same hour.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Latest stereo B image
That looks massive, can't wait to see the soho and sdo data

So my son just came in the house from a walk to the store (he's 20). He said he saw a shooting star that burst into a orange/red ball then it passed out of sight in the sky.

I laughed and said, "Now do you believe me?"...He is still freaking! "Mom, you should have seen this thing, I thought it was a shooting star then I thought it was a plane that exploded into a ball of fire!"

New Brunswick, Canada for location btw.

reply to post by murkraz

There does not seem to have been a radiation storm associated with the flare (as yet) but there was a fairly impressive CME. It looks like it was mostly directed north of the ecliptic, still, we will probably get some geomagnetic activity in a couple of days.

impressive indeed, even on stereo

i kept checking all day, thought there would be a big one, but got busy, and i have not seen one like this for quite some time what are the implications?

The onset of a minor radiation storm was announced at 05:25 UTC.
It looks like the CME will arrive on March 8-9. Looks like it could be a strong one.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


Now THAT is a cool animation...although a bit scary.

I saw that we had a X5 flare that is at least partially earth directed and I figured ATS would be full of end of the world threads. Where is everyone? This may be the largest CME to come our way in some time I believe. Certainly NOT the end of the world but I'm really hoping to see some lights here in the Pacific Northwest!!!!

The high energy proton levels continue to rise following the strong solar flare from very early this morning.

A moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is in progress andcontinues to rise. Strong S3 Level Radiation Storm levels are imminent.

The increase in proton levels are a direct result of the major solar flare activity from early Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1429.

source(solarham.com...

source(solarham.com...

I don't understand much about solar dynamics and was wondering if one of you knowledgeable folks would mind answering a question?

When the interplanetary magnetic field points south, does that allow more high energy particles to hit the earth? And if so, is it more troublesome to have the IMF dial pointing south when the solar flare occurs, or when a CME actually hits the magnetosphere? Or am I completely confused, and the north/south direction does not matter?

Thanks for any clarification.

reply to post by Olivine

Solar particles don't hit the Earth. A south turn of the solar wind allows particles to enter the magnetosphere. This in turn leads to more geomagnetic activity. It also can lead to dramatic auroral displays as those particles get hurled (by the magnetosphere) to the poles where they are directed downward and encounter the upper atmosphere.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Phage


Hi Phage!

I just talked to my mom on my cell (she still has land line) and the call dropped. Called her back and she said Dad's been having problems with his cell and they've been experiencing problems with the TV reception (they only have antennae - no cable or dish). Is this part and parcel of this radiation storm? And by radiation storm are you referring to the big spike in the proton flux or is that something different? Should it be affecting communication sats already? (Currently 12:30 EST/ 17:30 UTC ) Or do you think this disturbance with communications from the earlier X class flare?

I've notice the soho vids getting fuzzier and fuzzier, which, according to a really cool article I found here from NASA referencing the July 14-16, 2000 event explains the reason why due to increase proton flux if I understood it correctly.

Thx