Quake Watch 2012

TextMagnitude mb 5.7 Region KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION Date time 2012-01-07 18:38:06.0 UTC Location 28.94 S ; 176.09 W Depth 30 km Distances 1211 km NE Tauranga (pop 110,338 ; local time 07:38:06.6 2012-01-08) 872 km S Nuku'alofa (pop 23,611 ; local time 08:38:06.6 2012-01-08) 853 km S Ohonua (pop 1,241 ; local time 08:38:06.6 2012-01-08)

source(www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by diamondsmith


Yikes! maybe that 8 mag is not so far away.

I sure hope not!

Originally posted by radpetey
reply to post by diamondsmith

 

Yikes! maybe that 8 mag is not so far away.

I sure hope not!

The problem is they are progressive, and we are only seven days from last year,I think we will have a very interesting year.

The Kermedec Island region, FE 176 to 179 inclusive has the potential to release around a mag 8 equivalent in a month. The stress rate for the area is about the equivalent of a 6.48 magnitude energy every month thus anything under that level does not relieve much stress and anything over that does result in a decrease when the next batch is taken into account.

The graph (thumb below) is smoother towards 1900 because there are fewer events and nothing below 6.7 is recorded in the centennial before 1963 when the mag 5+ start appearing. With quakes up to Mag 6.5 or so making such a small difference to the stress build-up, these can be counted as normal happen anytime events. There is a mag 8 equivalent month and a mag 8.08 equivalent month which are the two largest periods and are where the big drops show.

Interestingly, and I am not sure if there is any significance in this yet, both of these large event months occur outside the global 'spike' by about 10 to 15 years in what is otherwise a quiet period. It might be possible to argue that if that is the case then the Kermedecs will likely not see a mag 8 equivalent month for around another 10 years or more.



Since by accident of typing (1990 instead of 1900) I ended up with 2 sets of data I thought I would show the other set as it makes the recent events clearer.



My feeling are that for the next 2 years or so this area will only produce sub Mag 7 quakes.

reply to post by PuterMan


Very interesting, woof woof.

You done anything like that for Cascadia?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Not yet. Only Alaska

Cascadia is on the list to do very soon.

Noticed that there's been a temblor swarm around Greece for the previous few days, and now a couple of 4.7 & 4.8 only 30 min's apart...latest one only 5k's deep.

Wonder if these are foreshocks to a bigger one coming there?

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


There was a MUCH larger swarm energy release in November last year



and an even larger one in April of last year



and nothing happened so no this probably is not a series of fore-shocks. But then again....who actually knows?

Just purely for interest 'greece' magnitudes according to the USGS since March last year.



The EMSC one was a clutter as they show many more than USGS but the main ones are on both although the March 2010 was a 6.0 with EMSC, 5.9 with USGS (You always get a bargain with them)

reply to post by PuterMan


Thanks for that PM.

So more likely these recent events are more likely to relate to last years quakes, much like what's happening in Christchurch, or is the TRUTH that we are all being bombarded with earthquake energy beams from SPACE, by those pesky aliens? (didn't want to suggest HAARP)

Originally posted by diamondsmith

Originally posted by radpetey
reply to post by diamondsmith

 

Yikes! maybe that 8 mag is not so far away.

I sure hope not!

The problem is they are progressive, and we are only seven days from last year,I think we will have a very interesting year.

That's a guarantee in my mind and pretty much everybody else I know. We'll be watching for the quakes and other anomalies here on ATS so you can be sure that there will be a delivery each month. The 8 or a destructive 7 will probably make way before August.

The climate change present of particularly N of the equator and around other areas of the globe is interesting, as is the increased volcanic activity from some of the larger or taller volcanoes since the month of December, and the effects of things like coronal hole streams (like the one coming out of Earth direction now) from now to in the months going into 2013 will most likely bring some heightened seismic activity through each couple of months this year.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Big CME will hit the earth on Jan 7-8...

Big earthquake? We shall see.

We discussed CME's here last year and I think we came to the conclusion CME's have nothing to do with earthquakes here on Earth.
At the very most it seems that when there is a CME there are less quakes.

Its like the Moon theorists, they always forget the big quakes that didn't fall on a Moon Phase.
Heres the graph i did again for reference CME's AND Moon phases. Red circles are mag 6's Pink ones Mag 7's


I still can't see any connection between anything, its all totally random IMO

reply to post by PuterMan

I didn't say when , it could be another 20-100 years.

Interesting to see in your graph how the energy builds up to be released by the Dusky Sound quake in 2009.
That ties in with what I have read about the West Coast (Fiordland) Mag 6 quakes over the period since the 1980's that each one moved the fault closer to massive failure.

It has been suggested that the Canterbury quakes are a result of the Dusky Sound 2009 movement, pulling the South Island SW 350 mm
Geonet SI movement map

This guy isn't always correct, but he's a lot of the time spot on with the areas of interest and warnings which he concludes upon based upon connection to coronal holes, solar wind speeds and arrivals, and the times at which such CME(s) spike up on the magnetosphere. During these times you can see a "hot spot" diagram of Earth, so to speak, of which I've witnessed increased seismic activity of these locations a good few times during strong solar winds and stronger earth-directed flares or erupting magnetic filaments and other areas of the Sun.

The earth's activity, whe Sun, it's cycles, sunspots and coronal holes should be one of the main things taught in junior and high school. What did I get back then? Dinosaurs for a year or two, Math, old Canadian cultures, some useful weather courses, chemistry, physics, and my favourite: Earth Systems, which did get into seismology a little and a lot of other useful information surrounding plate tectonics, of which at the time I was fairly interested in but if I had my time back I would be right into it. I need to get accepted into college soon, it's taking forever since I semi-figured out what to do back a year ago.

We discussed CME's here last year and I think we came to the conclusion CME's have nothing to do with earthquakes here on Earth.
At the very most it seems that when there is a CME there are less quakes.

I still can't see any connection between anything, its all totally random IMO

I don't think it's all totally random. I think that strong solar winds and especially coronal hole streams do have a connection with increased seismic activity - but it isn't always this way.

It's a lot more tangible than with the Moon. The moon doesn't emit this volley of radiation and strong flares in an earth-facing view. I'd say that I know twice as much about solar activity than seismic, I've nothing on half of you, but I do believe that there is at least a slight connection between the two, especially during earth-bound flares in combination with a coronal hole stream. It isn't the big-brother to figuring out where the next large quake will be, but it's definitely an interest with the best mapped areas of Earth to watch what happens during these monthly solar active phases.

Here are also two interesting articles by Science News and Science Daily that I put on my blog a little while ago surrounding plate tectonics.

"Pole flips said to be tied to plate tectonics"
"Link between tropical cyclones and earthquakes?"

Hi Eric.

TextFracking cited as the official cause of Ohio's 11 earthquakes last year Environmental experts are now certain that the recent earthquakes in Ohio and Oklahoma were direct results of the practice of fracking nearby, a controversial process used to obtain natural gas. Conservationists theorized that hydrolic fracturing- the formal name of the fracking process- was behind the many mini earthquakes sustained in the region over the past year, even though the area is known for being seismically insignificant. 'It's reasonably clear that these Youngstown earthquakes are being caused by the disposal well activities,' said Art McGarr, a spokesman for the U.S. Geological Survey

source(thecomingcrisis.blogspot.com...

reply to post by murkraz

This guy isn't always correct,

...isn't mostly correct....guesses wildly....has no system that is based on fact....depends on coincidence

but he's a lot of the time spot on with the areas of interest and warnings which he concludes upon based upon connection to coronal holes, solar wind speeds and arrivals, and the times at which such CME(s) spike up on the magnetosphere.

Well (1) when you cite Chile, Mid-Atlantic ridge, Ecuador, New Zealand, Tonga etc as possible areas you are pretty darn sure to be right most of the time. It is bit like saying "there will be seismic events in California" or "tomorrow there will be an earthquake in the ring of fire". These people are all the same. I gave up proving the cali site wrong as it happened every day - got a bit boring really.

(2) As muzzy stated we have looked at this before and there is no discernible correlation between coronal holes and seismic events. In fact it is often quieter in high solar activity times.

Now I am always happy to be proved wrong so if you can show the connections then I would be very happy to take a look, even if only because logically in an electric universe there should be some effect one might expect. I would also like someone to explain just how this can trigger earthquakes. Sorry but "OMG a CME! There will be a Mag 8" does not cut it. I need reasons why this might be.

During these times you can see a "hot spot" diagram of Earth, so to speak, of which I've witnessed increased seismic activity of these locations a good few times during strong solar winds and stronger earth-directed flares or erupting magnetic filaments and other areas of the Sun.

I am not saying you have not seen this increase, but can you substantiate it? Unfortunately I do not have time to cover all the areas I would like to cover so it would be useful if someone else could keep track of these and see if there is in fact a connection. The person on YT is not researching anything. He just has a bee in his bonnet and depends on apparent synchronicity due to happenstance. In that video he admitted nothing occurred - with excuses.

The earth's activity, whe Sun, it's cycles, sunspots and coronal holes should be one of the main things taught in junior and high school. What did I get back then? Dinosaurs for a year or two, Math, old Canadian cultures, some useful weather courses, chemistry, physics, and my favourite: Earth Systems, which did get into seismology a little and a lot of other useful information surrounding plate tectonics, of which at the time I was fairly interested in but if I had my time back I would be right into it.

Now what is the point of teaching anything about the Sun when we know it has nothing to do with the systems on the Earth

ETA:

It's a lot more tangible than with the Moon. The moon doesn't emit this volley of radiation and strong flares in an earth-facing view.

No, it just bends the crust by up to 55mm twice a day. Do solar flares do that?

Couple more possible Southern Ocean quakes on 07/01/2012 UTC not listed by any networks
look like not that far away, not much of a P wave on either, maybe high Mag 4's
LISS SNZO0 8-01-2012 0148
rough arrival times at SNZO
15:56 - 15:57
and 18:33:00 just before the Kermy 5.5
which made that one look funny
In fact the Kermy one still looks funny, like it was a double hit
doesn't really match with the trace on the IRIS SNZO graph


ETA : I've started collecting these SNZO graphs, to see if I can figure out the ones missing from the lists, and get to know what each trace represents regards distance and magnitude.
That Kermadec 5.5 threw me, I haven't seen one like that before


ETA: Well maybe it does look a bit like this Kerm 5.3, as far as the length of the S wave goes
LISS SNZO 19-12-2011 1719 Kerm 5.3

reply to post by muzzy


SNZO.IU.00.VHZ.2012.007 My favourite seismoview shows that as a single I think.

The earlier mystery quake is also visible.

I see EMSC has stuck to its guns and kept that 2012/01/01 05:27:56 Izu Islands at 7.0w
www.emsc-csem.org...

I added up all the magnitudes in the phase data and divided by 443 stations that had a magnitude, and got 6.12, but thats Mb.

Oh well that will do for a start for 2012 on the MWE 7+ project

reply to post by PuterMan


oh yeah I see it there, didn't look at that one.
So confirmed then.
Might show up in the 8 day list later