Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by muzzy


We sure did. And something strange has been noticed by many. Quite a few people in the city itself didn't feel it yet we did out here and the felt report suggest was felt as far out as Springfield. Many of us to the west of the city have been commenting how the offshore big ones feel closer and are heftier than the city events, yet they are 20km off to the east... I can only think it's the geology and the nature of the events themselves (i.e. the city quakes were in volcanic rocks and were largely trampoline/up-down events whereas the Greendale was e/w side to side motion. In fact, many have commented that they have thought the recent offshore 5's and 6's were Greendale events.. as did I.

Another doozy here in Canterbury! Looks decent on the drums - had the family up and out of bed quick smart WHAT is going on!

ETA wow - only 5.2!
Reference Number 3638451
Universal Time January 6 2012 at 12:21
NZ Daylight Time Saturday, January 7 2012 at 1:21 am
Latitude, Longitude 43.54°S, 172.85°E
Focal Depth 15 km
Richter magnitude 5.2
Region Canterbury
Location 10 km north-east of Lyttelton
10 km north-east of Diamond Harbour
20 km east of Christchurch

It felt WAY bigger than that - we're out of town 50km and it woke us from dead sleep with a lot of noise and a lot of rattling and swinging of lights!

My thoughts to the people of Christchurch.
Rang me ol' Mum. She's fine but a bit unsettled. Has power and phone though.
Yep, if we felt it out here it was a good old shake there!
I reckon high 5 , but will just have to wait and see.

Aha, a 5.2

Geonet

Originally posted by Evltre
Another doozy here in Canterbury! Looks decent on the drums - had the family up and out of bed quick smart

WHAT is going on!

ETA wow - only 5.2!
Reference Number 3638451
Universal Time January 6 2012 at 12:21
NZ Daylight Time Saturday, January 7 2012 at 1:21 am
Latitude, Longitude 43.54°S, 172.85°E
Focal Depth 15 km
Richter magnitude 5.2
Region Canterbury
Location 10 km north-east of Lyttelton
10 km north-east of Diamond Harbour
20 km east of Christchurch

It felt WAY bigger than that - we're out of town 50km and it woke us from dead sleep with a lot of noise and a lot of rattling and swinging of lights!

edit on 6-1-2012 by Evltre because: Add EQ details!

Same here - I'm near Darfield and it made me jump up and scream.. was convinced was Greendale as I have been with the recent big ones that are east of Chch.. v. strnge, it's bugging me

Most Kiwis would have seen this on TV or heard it on the radio by now, but I thought I'd post it for the others;

Tsunami chances slim, but quakes will continue - Christchurch
A few quotes from Berryman;
"the chances of a 7 magnitude quake were still "very low""
"the swarm of quakes in the last two weeks was getting closer to the Kaiapoi fault"
"The sequence of quakes would decay over decades"
"We can guarantee there will be [magnitude] 5s in the coming months"
"there may well be an ongoing sequence over a period of a few decades"

While the news conference was going on there was an earthquake, asked what he estimated the size was he said "3.3", it turned out it was a Mag 5.0

reply to post by muzzy

he said "3.3", it turned out it was a Mag 5.0

Then he is not a DA,again..that....

I could have sworn that the 5.2 in the early hours last night, was much bigger than stated!

Horrible way to be jolted awake...threw my arms out to try and catch my movie projector perched next to the bed, luckily it didn't fall.

Regarding the (closed door) meeting with the geo scientist and council, I believe they are going to be proven to be sorely WRONG about the 'low' likelihood of a 7 mag quake going off in the near future.

Originally posted by muzzy
And a 5.0 offshore ENE of East Cape too, not Felt though, out on the Pacific Plate
REF, LAT, LONG, UTC, MAG, DEPTH
3638291, -37.51748, -179.81314, 2012/1/6 4:10:54, 5.069, 33
magma.geonet.org.nz...
ETA: just had a look and USGS have it now
earthquake.usgs.gov...
ETA: guess Geonet had to list it if someone reported in, 1 from Gisborne MM4
www.geonet.org.nz...

Geonet are now listing 2 quakes for this
REF, LAT, LONG, UTC, MAG, DEPTH
3638581, 5.129, 3638581, -37.69237, -179.71265, 2012/1/6 4:10:53.3, 126
3638291, 5.069, 3638291, -37.51748, -179.81314, 2012/1/6 4:10:54.7, 33

The earlier deeper one further east out on the PP

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


I don't think they really know, its all based on models from other locations and what has happened so far since Sept 4. Its all new geology to everyone what is happening there.
I was just revising my Mag 7+ lists and noticed in 1976 there were 5 mag 7+'s in one 5 month period at the Kermadec Is.
7.3 Mw, 1976/1/1 1:29:39.39, -28.714, -177.42, 46.3, Kermadec Islands, ehb
7.8 Mw, 1976/1/14 15:56:34.39, -29.213, -177.638, 43.7, Kermadec Islands, ehb
8.0 Ms, 1976/1/14 16:47:37.58, -29.172, -177.316, 31.7, Kermadec Islands, noaa
7.1 Mw, 1976/3/24 4:46:5.17, -29.875, -177.697, 28.9, Kermadec Islands, ehb
7.1 Mw, 1976/5/5 4:52:55.31, -29.845, -177.641, 59.8, Kermadec Islands, ehb

who is to say there isn't a Mag 8 lurking out there in Pegusus Bay

ETA: of course the Kermys have a long history of very strong and major quakes

Don't mean to scare everyone, but its an outside chance, the Hikurangi margin is well over 1000 km long and is an extension of the Kermadec Trench, and at that length capable of a Mag 8.
The Hikurangi Trench finishes at Kaikoura.

reply to post by muzzy

Well, now YOU are starting to make me WORRY!

Bit like being between a big fat sandwich...an 8 in Pegasus Bay and an 8 for the Alpine fault...imagine if they triggered each other???

That would be one BUMPY ride!!!

The case against the Canterbury Feb 22, July13th quakes being "aftershocks', but rather "triggered events"
all-geo.org...
and a good republish of the map showing the margin boundry moving south
Some interesting stuff in the comments at the end from both geologists and laymen, discussing the part Banks Peninsula is playing in all this

Written on Feb 29th 2011 prior to the July 13th and Dec 23rd 6's

Originally posted by SpaceJockey1
I could have sworn that the 5.2 in the early hours last night, was much bigger than stated!

good observation, your getting good at this

How about 5.3 then
offically it was 5.277ML
Not sure why they didn't round it up this time.

as a comparison
the "5.0" yesterday was actually a 4.932ML = 377.058 TTNT (tons of TNT energy released)
the" 5.1" yesterday was actually a 5.069ML = 605.213 TTNT
and this mornings "5.2" was 5.277ML = 1241.39 TTNT

Big CME will hit the earth on Jan 7-8...

Big earthquake? We shall see.

reply to post by Vitchilo


How big Vitchilo...X flare or M or C?

Hope it hits the other side of the world as we don't need any extra help setting off quakes here!

Added the following:

FARSIDE BLAST: A magnetic active region behind the sun's eastern limb erupted during the late hours of Jan. 6th. SOHO recorded the flying debris. In a few days the blast site will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun for closer inspection. Stay tuned.



INCOMING CME? A magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the cloud would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. Subsequent work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests a different outcome: the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Click to view an animated forecast track:

reply to post by muzzy


I guess something could be lurking, and I know you don't exactly trust the geologists to know what they are doing but may I offer you this based on Centennial/ANSS data for the FE regions 161,2,3,4 - basically SI New Zealand?

I don't wish to get anyone's hopes up however based on my new sawtooth stress graphs it appears statistically that the likelihood of a mag 7 to 8 in the next few years is slim based on historical analysis from 1900 to 2011.



This is of course USGS data and therefore has probably got many missing elements, but the larger ones should be there and relatively speaking should give an indication of what has happened in the past.

I offer no guarantees of this and no one should fail to take any precautions based on this analysis.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Big CME will hit the earth on Jan 7-8...

Big earthquake? We shall see.

Add the full moon on Sunday to the mix.....just saying...I can hear PuterMan sighing and tutting from here!

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


Well after all it is just a glancing blow from the CME :shk: which Vitch failed to note 'cos it would spoil the doom and ....

moon does not affect earthquake. muzzy man speak with wisdom on this.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by angelchemuel

 

Well after all it is just a glancing blow from the CME :shk: which Vitch failed to note 'cos it would spoil the doom

and

moon does not affect earthquake. muzzy man speak with wisdom on this.

edit on 7/1/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

I knew you wouldn't be able to resist!

I never said anything, never have, about CME's causing EQ's

As to the moon...I will refrain from posting THAT song again!...goes off humming to self...

Comes back....think of it this way Puters (that's my new nick name for you this year!) if a CME (electric to keep it simple) can effect out radios etc, then by that basic rule so can the energies that the moon emits that affect our tides.....gives facepalm as I don't want to argue or get into technical discussion as this is just my gut instinc and feeling.... and until it is absolutely proven...which it hasn't, that the moon phases do NOT have an affect either directly or indirectly I am sticking my ground.
Science is a constantly evolving and changing...so is the universe we live in.
Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel

Comes back....think of it this way Puters (that's my new nick name for you this year!) if a CME (electric to keep it simple) can effect out radios etc, then by that basic rule so can the energies that the moon emits that affect our tides.....gives facepalm as I don't want to argue or get into technical discussion as this is just my gut instinc and feeling.... and until it is absolutely proven...which it hasn't, that the moon phases do NOT have an affect either directly or indirectly I am sticking my ground.
Science is a constantly evolving and changing...so is the universe we live in.

Here is a face-palm for you!

So, now we have that out of the way let us begin.

The Moon 'emits' gravity. Talking of gravity..........

However, if black holes remain at a steady state, then we can gather that gravity travels much, much faster than the speed of light, or we have much yet to learn about gravity and the nature of the universe.

The statement is very true. We do not know what gravity is!

It is a fact that the Moon 'bends' the crust of the earth by up to 55mm every day twice a day so the question really is does this flexing of the crust have the ability to trigger earthquakes?

The answer to that is undoubtedly yes. Shock horror! PuterMan agrees that the Moon affects earthquakes.

The problem here is that most of the people who promulgate the Moon's affect on earthquakes seem to think that it is only at new or full moon, apogee and perigee. In reality it is all day, everyday, with a peak of 'high tide' twice a day. So, yes there is an effect from the gravity but it does not switch off and on at particular times.

Any stress change may trigger an earthquake, but I don't believe it is possible to point a finger at the Moon and say "That did it!" It is just a part of the many things that affect the stress on the Earth's crust all of which are a component in some way or other of the triggering of earthquakes.

Hmm...Hmmm?

TextMagnitude mb 5.9 Region EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. Date time 2012-01-07 17:24:52.0 UTC Location 5.17 S ; 145.29 E Depth 80 km Distances 523 km NW Port moresby (pop 283,733 ; local time 03:24:52.8 2012-01-08) 56 km W Madang (pop 27,419 ; local time 03:24:52.8 2012-01-08)

source(www.emsc-csem.org...