Quake Watch 2012

There was a small swarm on the southern end of the San Andreas fault a few days back. It looks like it has restarted this morning.
Source

It began with a Mag 3.3, followed by a Mag 3.2. List of Niland, CA area quakes
This swarm will probably stop as abruptly as it started, but the area is certainly ripe for a big stress release.

Magnitude mb 5.6
Region VANUATU
Date time 2012-02-29 16:03:56.0 UTC
Location 17.65 S ; 168.08 E
Depth 40 km
Distances 1096 km W Suva (pop 199,455 ; local time 04:03:56.8 2012-03-01)
26 km W Vila (pop 35,901 ; local time 03:03:56.8 2012-03-01)

EMSC

Video forecast for chance of 5.0 in Oakland/San Jose area next 29 hours.



who knows? I am ready!

reply to post by muzzy


I was going to respond to you on this thread but I felt hurt and wounded that you thought my graph was not good enough that I needed the full 7000 characters to do my reply justice. 5000 just is not enough. So I responded to you here

reply to post by berkeleygal


Is this gentleman a regular forecaster? Mm, forecasting mag three quakes. Tres Difficile Mon Ami.

You are ready? For San Jose? Seems like some do not know how to get there.

Is it just me or has there been quite an increase in 5+ quakes near Japan over the last few days? Could it mean anything?

reply to post by phoenixlights321


I guess it depends on how you define the area really. There do seem to be a few more. These two charts are Honshu (in the name) and then Japan (in the name). Both are Mag 5+ only and going back 1 month.

reply to post by PuterMan


I think that's the guy who has the twitter quake forecast, could be wrong tho.

I know the way to San Jose...via GPS LOL!

off topic, Harrisburg, Illinois, which was devastated by a F4 tornado last night is 15-20 miles directly east of Marion, where my sister and her family live! Couldn't pay me to live there!

Originally posted by berkeleygal
reply to post by PuterMan

 

I think that's the guy who has the twitter quake forecast, could be wrong tho.

I know the way to San Jose...via GPS LOL!

off topic, Harrisburg, Illinois, which was devastated by a F4 tornado last night is 15-20 miles directly east of Marion, where my sister and her family live! Couldn't pay me to live there!

It's sad that I saw F4 tornado warnings up all over YouTube hours before any news site bothered to go into any detail of what was coming due to the election news.

Makes me wonder what could have been saved, if anything.

reply to post by PuterMan

Thanks for taking the time to look into it. As it happens the 1963 Mag 8 didn't alter the poly trend line as much as I thought it would.

Reasonably rare earthquake. Not big but unusual. Small swarm in 2010, otherwise not much.

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 4.4
Date-Time

Thursday, March 01, 2012 at 08:50:56 UTC
Thursday, March 01, 2012 at 08:50:56 PM at epicenter

Location 65.793°N, 174.070°W
Depth 14.6 km (9.1 miles)
Region CHUKOTKA, RUSSIA
Distances 160 km (99 miles) NNW of Provideniya, Chukotka, Russia
235 km (146 miles) W of Little Diomede Island, Alaska
249 km (154 miles) NNW of Gambell, Alaska
6262 km (3891 miles) NNE of MOSCOW, Russia
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 30.1 km (18.7 miles); depth +/- 8.3 km (5.2 miles)
Parameters NST= 61, Nph= 66, Dmin=252.7 km, Rmss=1.04 sec, Gp=119°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb000892s

USGS site

Circular search for all earthquakes produces:

CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE 1983 05 15 060043.17 66.07 -172.48 33 4.1 mbGS ... ....... 78
PDE 1996 10 24 193153.93 66.99 -173.23 19 6.1 MwHRV 3FM ....... 138
PDE 1996 10 24 194222.92 66.74 -172.69 20 4.5 mbGS ... ....... 122
PDE 1996 10 24 215737.24 67.08 -173.31 17 5.0 mbGS ... ....... 147
PDE 1996 10 25 000416.49 67.01 -173.23 26 5.0 mbGS ... ....... 141
PDE 1996 11 06 161150.38 66.71 -172.99 10 ... ....... 113
PDE 1997 02 21 045952.73 66.68 -172.60 10 ... ....... 119
PDE 1997 03 24 065613.67 67.07 -173.41 10 5.1 MwHRV ..M ....... 146
PDE 1997 11 02 034535.24 67.05 -172.99 10 4.1 mbGS ... ....... 148
PDE 2002 06 22 143418.35 65.95 -173.21 33 4.0 mbGS ... ....... 42
PDE 2002 12 09 033523.44 67.04 -173.21 10 4.3 mbGS ... ....... 144
PDE 2003 01 31 183604.04 65.32 -173.28 10 4.3 mbGS ... ....... 64
PDE 2005 11 04 011205.73 66.19 -174.68 5 3.8 mbGS ... ....... 51
PDE 2010 02 08 112724.05 66.43 -174.93 10 4.2 mbGS ... ....... 80
PDE 2010 02 09 011933.94 66.24 -174.76 10 4.4 mbGS ... ....... 58
PDE 2010 02 09 152221.35 66.24 -174.90 2 4.1 mbGS ... ....... 62
PDE 2010 02 13 173754.96 66.29 -174.81 9 4.9 mbGS ... ....... 64
PDE-W 2010 08 06 111708.76 66.27 -174.89 10 4.3 mbGS ... ....... 65
PDE-W 2010 08 06 111811.03 66.22 -174.89 10 4.4 mbGS ... ....... 60
PDE-W 2010 10 12 191333.64 66.10 -174.95 10 4.3 mbGS ... ....... 52

Source

reply to post by PuterMan

Thanks for the info and chart about the days between earthquakes..The 188 cycle is very interesting, and although I do not wish for a large mag quake to occur...I am anxiously awaiting to see what happens on March 22, 2012, which is the next cycled date predicted..
Thanks again PuterMan..You've added great stuff to this thread..

Magnitude mb 5.1
Region SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
Date time 2012-03-01 16:05:33.0 UTC
Location 39.73 N ; 74.25 E
Depth 1 km
Distances 150 km W Kashi (pop 274,717 ; local time 00:05:33.0 2012-03-02)
142 km SE Özgön (pop 40,360 ; local time 22:05:33.0 2012-03-01)

EMSC

reply to post by PuterMan


I don't usually bother with 4's outside New Zealand, and its not that I don't trust USGS but

when I do the 7's from past times I try to verify with another network or source, if only USGS/NEIC/ANSS have it listed then it probably didn't happen or the magnitude and/or location is wrong.
So lets have a look at Chukotka, Russia on 06/08/2010

USGS have
PDE-W 2010 08 06 111708.76 66.27 -174.89 10 4.3 mbGS ... ....... 65
PDE-W 2010 08 06 111811.03 66.22 -174.89 10 4.4 mbGS ... ....... 60

heres the list for that day from RAS

2010-08-06 00:02:29.7, 25.86, 129.27, 33, 4.5mb/20 Southeast of Ryukyu Islands
2010-08-06 02:37:45.5, 34.42, 24.78, 33, 5.1mb/9 Crete, Greece
2010-08-06 05:03:58.4, -21.80, -179.45, 600, 5.3mb/4 West of Tonga Islands
2010-08-06 07:00:14.6, 27.32, 53.82, 180, 4.1mb/7 Southern Iran
2010-08-06 08:58:35.3, -7.30, 128.35, 33, 5.6mb/16 Banda Sea
2010-08-06 11:18:10.6, 66.73, -174.74, 10, 4.8/8 Near n. coast of Eastern Siberia
2010-08-06 16:36:18.9, 48.47, 154.19, 60, 3.9mb/6 Kuril Islands
2010-08-06 21:05:26.4, -38.37, -73.72, 10, 4.8/3 Near coast of Central Chile

www.ceme.gsras.ru...


did a search on Geofon too
search results

same as the Russians, just the one quake at
2010-08-06 11:18:11, 66.32, -174.88, 8, 4.8M Near Northern Coast of Eastern Siberia

so IMO just the one quake at 11:18:10/11, the Russians had it further north too

if this is correct, then that one today becomes even rarer.

Related to the Kuril island series a few days back?, yes I would say so, in the past when the Kurils had a decent sized quake (say Mag 8) the Aleutians went off as well, the whole North Pacific Plate rim up there seems to be very sensitive.
Possible Mag 6+ Aleutains on the way soon? maybe, maybe not


probably worth cross checking the 2010 Feb ones on that list too, but haven't got the time right now, gotta go to work, TGIF

Is USGS working as of now , there is nothing on there for 3-1...thanks in advance

reply to post by ujustneverknow


Where are you looking? I have data coming in right up to 12:11:30 UTC and it is currently 12:312:00 UTC and that one is on the USGS Latest in the world list.

reply to post by PuterMan

Reasonably rare earthquake. Not big but unusual.

Very interesting thought,as this earthquake is very close to....

I know that now you will.....me.

busy last week we are having ive missed most of thus action. and yesterday was the 10 days before this perigee.

just two morre months till the big one.

reply to post by diamondsmith

Very interesting thought,as this earthquake is very close to....

I know that now you will.....me.

You could at least give me a multi-choice question. I have no idea what you are saying here?

Please select your answer from one of the choice below after you have selected one of the places.

Very interesting thought, as this earthquake is very close to:

1. The Sun
   
2. The Bering Sea
   
3. The centre of the earth
   
4. America
   
5. Something else which cannot be mentioned here
   
   
   I know that now you will ____ me
   
   1. Scold
      
   2. Kiss
      
   3. Cheer
      
   4. star
      
   5. ignore
      
      
      Each part of the question is worth 50 marks. 0 marks will be considered as a fail.
      
      Give me a clue?

reply to post by -W1LL

just two morre months till the big one.

?? Two months until what? I thought it was supposed to be the 22 March which under 4 weeks. Is this some new date I have not heard of?

Ah! The 5th of May I discover on the web is the next forecast pole shift that will not happen. On the first site I looked at I found this, and while I have no time for the claptrap I liked this:

People should just start living and stop worrying about what is going to happen, life is so beautiful and there is so much to see and live for, if we have an eternal soul what difference does it make if we die in a cataclysm it just means that this period of our lives is over, but how sad if there is a list of things you wished to accomplish and have not because you are hiding under a bed because of a pole shift in the earth

(I amended the misspelling of sould to soul and kjust to just)

That statement is SO true, of course you need to believe in an eternal soul - or do you? With or without an eternal soul life is for living not hiding under beds!

Oops, silly me. You were referring to the 2012 European Brass Band Championships on 5 May 2010 in the Netherlands.