Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by MamaJ


I'm convinced there's a connection! Anyway, I'm off to bed now 'down under' hope there aren't any tsunamis!

reply to post by VariableConstant


First here is a list of Mag 5+ earthquakes for Hawaii from 1960 to 2012 from ANSS (No ex tags because this is an image)


Most, but not all, the activity on Hawaii is volcanic in origin and not tectonic so larger earthquakes will be less common. Here is the list for Hawaii for the last 365 days (Sourced feom USGS. Also an image)


Thing is it is not really any busier now than it was in say March of last year. Whenever the lava in 'the pit' (Pu 'u 'O o) is misbehaving itself you get a small swarm of earthquakes. Activity here is mainly on the flank and really what is the worst that could happen? Part of the flank collapses? That may cause a small tsunami but really not much else.

Hawaii and the nature of the eruptions there has given it's name to a particular style of eruption - yup, an Hawaiian eruption - and these are not really explosive.

A Hawaiian eruption is a type of volcanic eruption where lava flows from the vent in a relative gentle, low level eruption, so called because it is characteristic of Hawaiian volcanoes.

Source: The ubiquitous Wikipedia

All in all Hawaii is one of the areas in the world where cataclysmic happenings are very low order so not too much to be concerned about.

Worry about Alaska instead.

February 27 it's an important day in the calendar.

2010 – An earthquake measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale strikes central parts of Chile leaving over 500 victims, and thousands injured. The quake triggered a tsunami which struck Hawaii shortly after.

source(en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by PuterMan


PM you are just toooo cool for school!

When you put the data out there it is not hard to see that Hawaii will be ok....at least as we can see by looking at the data. Not too much has changed although i do wonder about a massive volcanic eruption and what it could do...worst case scenario. Have any thoughts or ideas about a worst case scenario for the Island?

reply to post by MamaJ


Yes, and NO!

Unfortunately the direct relationship between CMEs and larger earthquakes remains unsubstantiated. Whilst I do believe there is a connection between the Sun and earthquakes, CMEs in my opinion are not it specifically.

Sure today there is a CME arriving and a mag 6.7, but on the 14th there was a mag 6.5 and no CME. The cloud for the current CME event according to spaceweather should reach Earth today, Feb. 26th around 1330 UTC, So did the Russian earthquake go off in anticipation of the event?

One cannot cherry pick the data as is done for the 188 day theory and climate change. Either an arriving CME does cause an earthquake trigger or it does not - depending of course on the strength of the incoming CME and the potential earthquake. The problem is that if you have an earthquake without a CME you have a problem. (Yes I know what I said. ) The problem is that you then have to explain why this on happened without the benefit of a CME.

As I have said more than once on the thread I am happy to be shown the connection if there is one, but that requires the production of data to support the argument and not just a feeling. It is fine to say that you think there may be a connection, but one cannot state there IS a connection without evidence. (Not saying you were by the way)

Despite the ridiculous thread the other day suggesting that ATS members should be vetted to prove their credentials in order to prevent disagreements and 'pics or it didn't happen' statements, data (or pics) or it didn't happen is a perfectly valid request.

reply to post by MamaJ

massive volcanic eruption and what it could do...worst case scenario. Have any thoughts or ideas about a worst case scenario for the Island?

In the case of this particular area I don't think there is much danger which was the point I was making. There is very little on the flank of the volcano and the ground rises upwards going North so the scenario posted last year of a lava flow going up hill over the top and then flowing down to the town of Hilo is just not going to happen.

If there was a massive flank collapse there would be a tsunami, and it would affect the coast of America but the science says that flank collapse tsunamis are localised and do not carry the far reaching effects of tectonic tsunamis, which is the reason why the collapse of the flank on the Canaries will NOT cause a major tsunami on the Florida coast (1 metre at best)

I don't know how this would affect Hawaii itself as I don't have the computer model to find out.

However having said that the activity is between Kilauea and Mauna Loa and not on the seaward side so flank collapse is not imminent I think.

The main danger from Hawaiian volcanoes is going to be ash to some degree and gasses and with substantial population centres reasonably close by virtue of the size of the place this would undoubtedly be the worst problem in the event of a major eruption, but having said that there are not many if any reports of historical problems in that respect.




Smoke and gasses can drift.


And it can get in the way of motorists!!!

reply to post by PuterMan


AS far as the CME connection.... I was only joking. Im sorry if I mislead you to think otherwise. I know there is no direct evidence to suggest theres ANY WAY of being able to predict an EQ.

When I first joined ATS a year ago I thought I found connections but you showed me otherwise and I appreciate all you do for this site because I have learned soooo much from you and other posters.

I guess the good news is...you have spelled it out once again just in case others find a connection.

I choose to go to spaceweather.com daily only because I am interested in space weather as I am interested in anything geologically speaking or space related. Its just my thang!

reply to post by PuterMan


Ok good! I have never been to the islands and would love to go one day. I have never studied Hawaii and how the islands came about in the first place....I think I will dive into that subject just for entertainment purposes.

Thanks for your insight!!!!

Magnitude ML 4.0
Region SPAIN
Date time 2012-02-26 15:31:35.0 UTC
Location 37.05 N ; 3.91 W
Depth 10 km
Distances 31 km SW Granada (pop 238,248 ; local time 16:31:35.2 2012-02-26)
23 km SW Santa fé (pop 14,119 ; local time 16:31:35.2 2012-02-26)
7 km W Agrón (pop 300 ; local time 16:31:35.2 2012-02-26)

EMSC

Due to the unreliability of USGS regarding converting magnitudes (Mw = 6.7, mb = 6.4 (301), ML = 7.4 ( 3)), this may help
That SW Siberian quake from the folks closer to the action, Chinese 7.0Ms, Russians 6.8Ms, 6.7mb

发震日期 发震时刻 纬度 (度.度) 经度 (度.度) 深度 (km) 震级 参考地点
2012/02/26 14:17:19.4* 51.7 96.0 10 Ms7.0 俄罗斯西伯利亚地区
www.csndmc.ac.cn...


2012-02-26 06:17:17.4 51.73 95.98 10 63 6.8Ms/31 6.7mb/31 9 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
www.ceme.gsras.ru...

Aftershocks
N date [GMT] lat lon depth n sta ms mb I0 region name
4 2012-02-26 06:17:17.4 51.73 95.98 10 63 6.8/31 6.7/31 9 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
5 2012-02-26 06:52:37.5 51.76 96.16 10 20 - 5.1/8 5.5-6 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
7 2012-02-26 07:49:01.1 51.72 96.09 10 10 - 4.4/4 4 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
9 2012-02-26 08:16:58.1 51.73 96.12 10 16 - 4.6/6 4.5 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
10 2012-02-26 11:07:38.9 51.65 96.18 10 32 - 5.3/18 6-6.5 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
11 2012-02-26 11:50:48.1 51.59 96.05 10 15 - 4.5/7 4-4.5 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
12 2012-02-26 11:59:04.5 51.77 95.84 10 34 - 5.4/17 6-6.5 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
13 2012-02-26 12:50:21.3 51.73 96.14 10 19 - 4.7/10 4.5-5 Southwestern Siberia, Russia
14 2012-02-26 13:06:37.3 51.85 95.59 10 23 - 5.1/13 5.5-6 Southwestern Siberia, Russia

source

俄罗斯西伯利亚地区 , so thats how you say SW Siberia in Chinese eh, handy to know
* time must be the time in Beijing = Sun 2:15 p.m




with the USGS 7.4ML and the Chinese 7.0Ms, this one fits the MWE 314-2012 Project parameters, making it the 4th Mag 7 for 2012


To summarise;

Date/Time: 2012/2/26 6:17:17
Lat: 51.73 Long: 95.98 [ras]
Region: SW Siberia, Russia
Magnitude:
Ms 7 [cenc] ML 7.4 [usgs]
Ms 6.8 [ras] Mw 6.7 [usgs]
Depth: 10 km
Deaths: 0 Injuries: 0
Tsunami: No
Catalog Source: ras
Felt: [usgs]
MM5 Kyzyl,Tyva [4]; Sayanogorsk, Hakasija[1]
MM4 Chernogorsk, Hakasija [1]; Kemerovo [2]; Krasnoyarsk-45 [1]; Krasnoyarsk [44]; Minusinsk, Krasnojarsk [4]
MM3 Ulaangom, Uvs, Mongolia [1]; Abakan, Hakasija [2]; Abaza, Hakasija [1]; Devyatka, Krasnojarsk [3]; Kansk, Krasnojarsk [1]; Novokuznetsk, Kemerovo [6]; Novosibirsk [10]; Tomsk [4]
MM2 Angarsk, Irkutsk [1]; Barnaul, Altaj [2]; Biysk, Altaj [1]; Irkutsk [2]; Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3]; Ulan-Ude, Burjatija [1]
[earthquake-report.com]
100 km from Kyzyl, Siberia, Russia
In Irkutsk, tremors were felt for about four or five minutes with 15.19 (10.19 GMT) to 15:24 local time. The inhabitants of the upper floors of tall buildings saw objects fall down from the top shelf. The houses also had some broken glasses, chandeliers swayed.
Some school buildings in Kochetova have induced small damage, like cracks in the ceiling , falling plaster etc.

MWE 2012 (graph to update yet)

Is it just me or does the world seem to be rattling today?

Fiji just got another one...


2012-02-26 19:37:08.058min ago 24.95 S 177.25 W 10 5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 19:28:53.01hr 07min ago 38.16 N 41.37 E 10 3.0 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 18:42:06.11hr 53min ago 39.62 N 26.09 E 6 2.6 NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 18:10:33.42hr 25min ago 51.75 N 96.07 E 10 4.1 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 18:02:13.02hr 33min ago 41.55 N 40.02 E 2 3.5 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 18:00:25.22hr 35min ago 40.12 N 26.13 E 6 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 17:21:39.63hr 14min ago 51.84 N 96.13 E 10 4.2 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 17:09:32.63hr 26min ago 35.74 N 29.30 E 5 2.7 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
2012-02-26 16:34:43.84hr 01min ago 38.32 N 38.82 E 9 2.5 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 16:27:15.04hr 08min ago 17.98 S 178.50 W 596 5.0 FIJI REGION
2012-02-26 16:18:06.64hr 17min ago 35.79 N 29.27 E 9 2.6 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
2012-02-26 16:17:21.04hr 18min ago 37.28 N 16.18 E 10 3.7 IONIAN SEA
2012-02-26 16:13:17.04hr 22min ago 24.48 S 177.29 W 20 4.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
3 III 2012-02-26 15:31:35.05hr 04min ago 37.05 N 3.91 W 10 3.6 SPAIN
2012-02-26 15:23:27.05hr 12min ago 51.61 N 96.11 E 10 4.3 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 15:16:49.05hr 19min ago 39.12 N 29.03 E 7 2.9 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 14:54:48.95hr 41min ago 40.45 N 28.10 E 12 2.4 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 14:51:44.05hr 44min ago 39.23 N 41.54 E 16 2.8 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 14:40:13.15hr 55min ago 37.90 N 26.74 E 8 2.9 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
2012-02-26 14:29:26.06hr 06min ago 51.79 N 175.28 W 80 4.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
2012-02-26 14:16:19.16hr 19min ago 40.73 N 37.00 E 5 2.6 CENTRAL TURKEY
2012-02-26 13:50:00.06hr 45min ago 24.47 S 176.87 W 10 5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 13:44:59.06hr 50min ago 51.61 N 95.97 E 10 4.0 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 13:27:15.07hr 08min ago 2.60 N 128.62 E 231 4.9 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
2012-02-26 13:17:33.07hr 18min ago 51.53 N 95.60 E 10 4.5 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 13:13:05.07hr 22min ago 19.36 S 168.97 E 84 4.8 VANUATU
2012-02-26 13:06:36.07hr 29min ago 51.84 N 95.97 E 10 4.9 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 13:06:12.87hr 29min ago 37.24 N 36.11 E 10 2.6 CENTRAL TURKEY
2012-02-26 12:50:21.07hr 45min ago 51.73 N 96.14 E 10 4.7 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 12:43:08.07hr 52min ago 38.47 N 15.48 E 117 2.3 SICILY, ITALY
2012-02-26 12:14:45.18hr 21min ago 38.78 N 30.22 E 14 2.2 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 12:12:28.28hr 23min ago 24.70 S 177.45 W 35 5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 12:09:16.08hr 26min ago 38.37 N 21.86 E 7 2.3 GREECE
2012-02-26 11:59:05.08hr 36min ago 51.76 N 96.00 E 10 5.3 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
1 F 2012-02-26 11:52:25.08hr 43min ago 51.53 N 16.13 E 1 4.0 POLAND
2012-02-26 11:50:48.08hr 45min ago 51.59 N 96.05 E 10 4.5 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 11:47:56.78hr 48min ago 38.69 N 30.20 E 7 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 11:33:00.69hr 02min ago 38.68 N 43.18 E 9 2.6 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 11:31:08.09hr 04min ago 42.62 N 13.21 E 15 2.0 CENTRAL ITALY
2012-02-26 11:17:25.09hr 18min ago 43.27 N 19.27 E 2 2.7 MONTENEGRO
2012-02-26 11:17:11.09hr 18min ago 24.75 S 177.19 W 60 4.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 11:07:41.09hr 28min ago 51.66 N 96.15 E 10 5.2 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 10:43:56.59hr 52min ago 37.84 N 29.56 E 11 2.4 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 10:41:26.99hr 54min ago 37.73 N 29.53 E 12 2.6 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 10:26:39.110hr 09min ago 37.21 N 27.85 E 13 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 10:00:36.010hr 35min ago 11.38 N 86.58 W 60 4.7 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
2012-02-26 09:55:24.210hr 40min ago 38.84 N 43.69 E 30 2.4 EASTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 09:48:41.710hr 47min ago 39.80 N 30.12 E 3 2.1 WESTERN TURKEY
2012-02-26 09:23:24.011hr 12min ago 24.85 S 177.25 W 132 4.7 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 09:06:05.011hr 29min ago 38.84 N 30.16 E 8 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY


www.emsc-csem.org...

And....Just the 5 plus ones.....

2012-02-26 19:37:12.01hr 01min ago 24.88 S 177.22 W 30 5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 16:27:15.04hr 11min ago 17.98 S 178.50 W 596 5.0 FIJI REGION
2012-02-26 13:50:00.06hr 49min ago 24.47 S 176.87 W 10 5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 12:12:28.28hr 26min ago 24.70 S 177.45 W 35 5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 11:59:05.08hr 40min ago 51.76 N 96.00 E 10 5.3 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 11:07:41.09hr 31min ago 51.66 N 96.15 E 10 5.2 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 08:08:52.0 18.87 S 69.40 W 107 5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
2012-02-26 06:52:39.0 51.76 N 96.22 E 10 5.0 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
13 V 2012-02-26 06:17:19.0 51.75 N 96.04 E 10 6.8 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2012-02-26 05:25:06.0 32.53 S 177.79 W 98 5.6 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
2012-02-26 05:21:29.0 24.52 S 177.27 W 46 5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2012-02-26 02:46:28.0 24.72 S 177.42 W 60 5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
4 F 2012-02-26 02:34:57.0 22.70 N 120.84 E 3 5.9 TAIWAN


www.emsc-csem.org...

Magnitude mb 4.7
Region SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
Date time 2012-02-26 19:59:29.0 UTC
Location 51.74 N ; 95.99 E
Depth 2 km
Distances 111 km E Kyzyl (pop 108,240 ; local time 02:59:29.7 2012-02-27)
87 km E Kaa-khem (pop 10,375 ; local time 02:59:29.7 2012-02-27)
38 km NE Saryg-sep (pop 4,582 ; local time 02:59:29.7 2012-02-27)

EMSC

If my information is right---March 11th is the date for a major one--somewhere's?

Originally posted by truthRconsequences357
If my information is right---March 11th is the date for a major one--somewhere's?

What information?

Magnitude ML 4.8
Region FRANCE
Date time 2012-02-26 22:37:55.0 UTC
Location 44.54 N ; 6.66 E
Depth 2 km
Distances 100 km SW Turin (pop 872,881 ; local time 23:37:55.9 2012-02-26)
41 km S Briançon (pop 11,577 ; local time 23:37:55.9 2012-02-26)
5 km E Crévoux (pop 111 ; local time 23:37:55.9 2012-02-26)

EMSC


Felt shallow quake

Originally posted by truthRconsequences357
If my information is right---March 11th is the date for a major one--somewhere's?

Well now I am curious...

What info ya got?? I wanna see a link or something. Please share why that day will once again trigger a major EQ???I dont think its likely but I don't doubt any possibility as they are endless in this vast Universe.

Magnitude mb 4.4
Region NEPAL
Date time 2012-02-26 23:08:48.0 UTC
Location 29.80 N ; 81.23 E
Depth 35 km
Distances 172 km E Rudrapur (pop 101,560 ; local time 04:38:48.9 2012-02-27)
66 km E Dashrathchand (pop 18,317 ; local time 04:38:48.9 2012-02-27)

EMSC

ive tried to find the info myself, but had no luck so...do any of you know what was the largest number of quakes ever recorded in one day worldwide?

Magnitude
4.4
Date-Time
Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 23:42:24 UTC
Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 02:42:24 PM at epicenter
Location
62.467°N, 145.756°W
Depth
7.9 km (4.9 miles)
Region
CENTRAL ALASKA
Distances
30 km (19 miles) NW (326°) from Gulkana, AK
31 km (19 miles) NW (306°) from Gakona, AK
41 km (26 miles) NNW (346°) from Glennallen, AK
254 km (158 miles) NE (54°) from Anchorage, AK
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 5.8 km (3.6 miles)
Parameters
NST=100, Nph=103, Dmin=32.3 km, Rmss=1.01 sec, Gp= 50°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb00086jv

USGS