Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by muzzy


They have been predicting the Tokai (Tokyo) earthquake for years now, even decades and it has failed to oblige them. Then came Tohoku which they never saw coming. A serious amount of face has been lost, but they cannot give up on the idea yet and TA would agree with them on that.

Don't forget that we are not taking a Mag 9 here. The last big quake was a 7.2 at Kobe if memory serves me correctly and I can still remember the images flashed around the world from that one. They have had and are expecting and 8+.

More information:
Earthquakes - Tokyo. Climbing The Stairway To Hell
Wikipedia: Tokai Earthquakes

Magnitude mb 4.4
Region EGYPT
Date time 2012-01-30 17:04:35.7 UTC
Location 28.29 N ; 34.39 E
Depth 44 km
Distances 214 km W Tabuk (pop 455,450 ; local time 20:04:35.7 2012-01-30)
65 km W Al-bad' (pop 11,348 ; local time 20:04:35.7 2012-01-30)

EMSC

reply to post by Hellas


I have yet to see this quake in Egypt on USGS.

I wonder why they have not posted that little bugger?

reply to post by radpetey


To small to qualify. USGS only list 4.5 plus outside of the good old US of A (their version of 4.5 so often 5+) and very occasionally 4 if it is a significant quake.

Unlikely this will turn up on USGS.

Originally posted by PuterMan
They have been predicting the Tokai (Tokyo) earthquake for years now, even decades and it has failed to oblige them. Then came Tohoku which they never saw coming.

Well to clarify that a bit from my irrelevant perspective, they knew of the fault, and its potential for a quake- they just didn't have any idea it could be THAT BIG (9.1)- from previous associations of fault lengths to maximum magnitudes.

But they're learning - - - The HARD way, like all of us, to not so quickly second guess what the earth is capable of- ANYWHERE. And also, to not be so sure of a fault length in the first place, because of deeper, unknown extensions. And that may actually be more where the problem really lied in this case. Because for the most part, fault length to magnitude studies have been mostly reliable- not absolutely reliable, but mostly.

If there is really another 600 km of hidden extension fault that is previously undiscovered- and that adds another 2 orders of magnitude to the max they thought possible (because of the known fault length), then it is easier to see how a situation like this could occur. 7 went to 9 very quickly, and with deadly surprise, to the people, and scientists in northern Japan.

A serious amount of face has been lost, but they cannot give up on the idea yet and TA would agree with them on that.

Well the whole premise of both my bigger threads on the issue is that the 9.1 most definitely WILL affect southern Japan, much like the old windshields would start a crack that would spider web out into failure. The increased seismicity is slowly bearing that out to be true. It's just taking a long time. And that is time the Japanese people are using to prepare. They know it. We know it. And Godspeed to them.

It's funny, but the western side of the ring of fire seems to have just shut off in the last 24 hours, compared to the barrage of 5+ mag. in the last ten days or so.

Just sayin'

There goes Virginia a gigglin' again.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by radpetey


I felt that little shaker. We were just sitting down for dinner. I asked my family if they "felt that"--of course, they just looked at me with that "Oh great, Mom's talking about earthquakes" look.....

Here it is clipped on CERI

This looks big on IRIS. Too bad it is split between lines.

Active 200-km fault found off Honshu's Kii Peninsula

www.abovetopsecret.com...

posted 1-29-12

So.....I refound this link today. Apparently from last March I assume. And I was thinking about the whole thousands of foreshocks thing for Japan. Well, if you go to the bottom of the page....there's an archive back through 2008.

I did some checking. I went back through about a year & a half. Most months have a page & a half, to a little over two pages of earthquakes for each month. I didn't see any obvious increase before March 11, except a swarm of I believe it was 40 quakes, labeled Sanriku, which started with the M7.2 on the 9th. 8-3's, 17-4's, 10-5's, 4-6's, & the 7.2. No other locations listed among these. Just like ducks in a row! The swarm ended with the big one on the 11th, which they have as M8.1. Which I assume is a scale difference?

It says there were 1,176 quakes in March, but most were after shocks. 40 pages of March eq's!!! The swarm starts on page 38 or 39, on March 9th. The list starts from the end of the month & goes back! So over 38 pages of aftershocks.

I thought they were listing only 3's & above, but I did find as low as 2.3 in a couple of other months. So maybe they were 1's if it is true? But why no 2's showing? Unless there were too many to list? Something doesn't add up!

SOURCE:
quake.twiple.jp...

If it doesn't open up in English, there's an option in the top right hand corner!!!

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


started with the M7.2 on the 9th. ,,at that point vetern ATS Quake threads,, new something was going too hit,, right now,, people must be warned,,
for whatever reason that was a " Triger " point,, i still remember waking my wife,, saying,, this is it,,
watching live, as the sunami, carry away ,,everything,, for miles,, ,,
cars driveing up the road,, not fast,, just normal,, ,,and then they were gone,,
the wave moved that fast,,,

meanwhile the expert is saying,,
don't worry,,
there are floodgates in place,,,
and i'm thinking,, the flood gades are 5 miles back buddy,,they aint stopping nothing,,
and i thought,, were watching the same thing,, ,and the guy in the helicopter,, cant belive, that its already,, 8 miles inland,,,


ya was a very intence night,,,

and then someone said ,,
theres a Nuclear Power Plant,, just down the road,,,


thats when i woke my wife,,
ya intence,,,


Me.

Love to all hope everyone is safe and prepared for whatever mother earth challenges us with.

WI 2.4.......I felt it in Northern Il !

Small but I definitely felt it .
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by radpetey
It's funny, but the western side of the ring of fire seems to have just shut off in the last 24 hours, compared to the barrage of 5+ mag. in the last ten days or so.

Just sayin'

What do you make of that?

What do you see as the implications?

Locked and building up? What?

Lull before the storm?

Sigh.

USGS missed one of those Kermadec quakes the other day, there were 7 all together, possibly 8, I couldn't find that trace at AT (Arrival Time) ay 19:25:00
marked LISS graph

In the list below, regulars will recognise the USGS lines (in capitals) the other line is from GEOFON
5.1 , 2012-01-28 23:57:20, - 31.45, 178.11, 40, Kermadec Islands Region
[color=00FF00]5.0 , 2012/01/28 20:00:35, -29.536, -177.073, 15.2, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 , 2012/01/28 19:05:39, -29.478, -177.305, 19.4, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 , 2012/01/28 18:49:05, -29.478, -177.126, 29.1, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.2 , 2012/01/28 18:17:52, -29.702, -177.165, 29.6, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 , 2012/01/28 17:47:40, -29.530, -177.033, 36.5, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.8 , 2012/01/28 17:42:54, -29.289, -177.198, 32.3, KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

Originally posted by radpetey
It's funny, but the western side of the ring of fire seems to have just shut off in the last 24 hours, compared to the barrage of 5+ mag. in the last ten days or so.

Just sayin'

It's still pretty quiet over on that side of the Pacific...any of you aussies or our friends in Japdan want to go jump on the drums and make sure they are still working...

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Kermy dropped near on 15,000 tonnes of TNT 2 days ago, and you want more

from my post above yours;
5.8 = 7558.025 tonnes of TNT released
5.3 = 1344.028
5.2 = 951.499
5.4 = 1898.490
5.4 = 1898.490
5.0 = 476.879
5.1 = 673.610
Total = 14,801.021 tonnes of TNT released

In contrast the 6.3 on the other side (Peru) yesterday worth 42,501.898 tonnes of TNT released

If the Pacific Plate was balanced ( its probably not) then maybe theres a Mag 6.17 worth 27,127.410 TTNT lurking out there on the west side to equalize things out

reply to post by muzzy


Don't want more, just seems odd, to me, the sudden drop off is all.

From the little I've gleaned, it's when normally active areas quiet down and/or normally quiet area act up that trouble could be imminent.

I'll be perfectly happy for the quakevacation to contiue, as long as they aret as grumpy as PM can get when they return.

reply to post by BobAthome


We were watching too. Couldn't believe people weren't heading for the hills. It must have felt bigger than usual? Maybe because they had so many in two days they thought it would be the same. Then again....they had so many good sized ones in two days...even for Japan. You would think they would be worried.

Earthquakes aren't new. Neither are tsunami's. It's a Japanese word after all!
Worse in Indonesia. They saw the water going out! Anyone who was born on an island should know the signs.
I saw where even the elephants knew!
Even in the old days there should have been oral history & stories passed down.

Now, in 'modern' times, anyone who lives near water should be aware.
I lived in Hawaii for awhile. The phone book had maps of potential areas of inundation if a tsunami occurred. Tourists were told what to do, where to go. There were tests of the warning sirens.
I was told a story of what happened there years ago, when the water went out. People went out to get the fish that were left behind stranded on the ocean floor....but then the water came back in.......!!!

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


yeah it would be better if those Kermy quakes tapered off down through the mag 4's like it should do, you could be right, there may be more biguns to come from there or Fiji/Tonga yet in the coming weeks.
Vanuatu has been really quiet, its been 21 days since a Mag 5 there, 10 days since a Mag 4