Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by murkraz

not saying it will, but could push out a 7-8 soon.

It is certainly capable of it and it would not be out of court as an aftershock to the big one.

Historically however within a radius of 100 km of the epicentre of that one (if we could agree which epicentre!) the largest since the 1970s has been a 6.9

I think there will something happen in Japan.... fortunately I am in Osaka and not in this region.

I hope it will not happen, but as I watch this spot constantly, it seems to become more active.

reply to post by murkraz


You said could push out a 7?

According to the Czechs it did

seis.ig.cas.cz...


My thanks to Muzzy for pointing out that the INGV links on my European links page were broken. They have made some substantial structural changes to the site.

I have checked ALL the links on the page and all are working at this time.

reply to post by PuterMan


JMA - 5.7 for that, 1 minute later?(no seconds on JMA), not on Geofon, EMSC-CSEM nor USGS

www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120520163842391-201628.html

noteworthy is that Geofon detected the original event as 2 separate, almost a minute spaced

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/list.php



GSRAS

www.ceme.gsras.ru/cgi-bin/quake_state.pl?sta=20122056

Earthquake parameters
date= 20-May-2012 07:19:52.9 lat= 39.57 lon= 143.38
depth= 10km ms: 6.6/25 mb: 6.1/34

So the Italy EQ moore ore less explained....at least related...

INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE: An interpanetary shock wave possibly associated with the M5-class solar flare of May 17th swept past Earth on May 20th around 0200 UT. The shock's arrival caused geomagnetic activity around the poles, but so far no reports of high-latitude auroras.

www.spaceweather.com...

3 minutes later the Italy EQ...

MAP

6.0

2012/05/20 02:03:52
---------------------

44.800

11.192

5.1

NORTHERN ITALY

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by mountaingirl1111

 

My question is, would those quakes be considered big for that area?

Yes indeed, that was big for that area, in fact the biggest since 1974 according to the USGS circular search based on a 100 km radius.

CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE 1980 12 23 120103.10 44.71 9.94 10 5.0 MLTRI .D. ....... 99
PDE 1983 11 09 162951.66 44.69 10.32 36 5.2 MLROM 8C. ....... 70
PDE 1987 05 02 204353 44.82 10.72 10 5.2 MLFUR 7C. ....... 37
PDE 1996 10 15 095559.63 44.79 10.78 10 5.4 MwHRV 7FM ....... 32
PDE 2000 05 10 165209.81 44.31 12.00 10 5.1 MwHRV ..M ....... 83
PDE 2002 11 02 105743.17 44.58 12.16 10 5.0 MLZAMG ... ....... 80
PDE 2003 09 14 214251.86 44.33 11.45 10 5.3 MwHRV 7CM ....... 56
PDE 2008 12 23 152422.47 44.56 10.41 28 5.4 MwGCMT 6FM ....... 67
PDE 2008 12 23 215825 44.52 10.39 31 5.0 MwGCMT 5FM ....... 70
PDE-W 2012 01 27 145313 44.48 10.03 60 5.0 MwROM 5FM ....... 98

Source

Thanks, PM, that's what I thought when I first saw it. What do you think of this swarm, do you think that the 6 was the main event or would there be a possibility that things could get worse there? I am surprised that the USGS downgraded the quake, from a 6.3 to a 6.0, and do I remember seeing something on one of the quake sites last night that some places had it figured initially as either a 6.7 or 6.9? That's a huge difference, obviously.

Originally posted by xecoybh
reply to post by PuterMan

 

noteworthy is that Geofon detected the original event as 2 separate, almost a minute spaced

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/list.php

Yeah seen that. EMSC had the same an hour ago, but I can't get on their site right now.
They do use Geofon for data source though.
None of the others have 2 that close together.

The 2012-05-20 07:20:43 Mag 6.3 and/ or 07:19:58 Mag 5.9 look a lot bigger than what USGS have (6.0) when you compare with the 2012-05-19 19:05:22 Mag 5.8 shown on SNZO

You can't see 2 quakes on that graph, too close together (if there were 2)
using the arrival times

the 5.9
P=07 32 31
S=07 42 59
LR=08 00 02

the 6.3
P=07 33 17
S=07 43 46
LR=08 00 56

45 seconds apart at source
P wave 46 seconds apart at SNZO
S wave 47 seconds apart at SNZO
LR wave 54 seconds apart at SNZO

you can see a possible double LR wave on GUAM though

reply to post by PuterMan


scary info..

thanks for maintaining your links puterman I do use them.

I hope there isnt more to come there is alotta tension out there.

and another little shaker in texas
earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by murkraz


where is this latest swarm compared to the 9.1 of last year and the swarm before it?


I am really worried about japan there was a story 2 days ago about the water suply being shut off due to chemicals in the water the last think they need is more shaking.


location of 9.1 on 3-11-2011




Current Swarm



looks like the current swarm is close but still farther north than the 9.1

still looking for a map of the swarm of around 5mag quakes in the days leading up to 3-11-2011

Hi everyone. Although I drop in from time to time, I am not a regular of this thread, so I hope you'll allow an intrusion long enough for me to ask a question?

Finding Popo on a map
On the above link, RSOE's shows Popo as being situated inland in Mexico as opposed to being right next to or on the ocean. It seems to be cone-shaped and thus would it not earn the appellation of a stratovolcano?
RSOE lists a 'volcano activity report' on the following page that identifies Popo as a submarine volcano, even though Google Earth shows it to be 76.59 miles from the ocean. Can you explain why it should be called a submarine volcano as opposed to a stratovolcano? Please and thanks. I hope this is not considered off-topic or that you have answered this a zillion times before.
Activity report page

reply to post by aboutface


Good point, I use RSOE too, never really paid it much attention.
I love volcanoes in many ways, and having read and seen what submarine volcanoes can do, they are just as amazing as overground structures.
Anyhow, I digress. The following links are great info sites for Popo, and clearly classes it as strato, as you would expect it to be:

volcano.oregonstate.edu...

www.vulkaner.no...

by contrast, a quick wiki search does not place Popo as sub:

en.wikipedia.org...

Just to say though, I know nothing more than the next person, I just find them fascinating. Maybe cue the experts?

reply to post by aboutface

RSOE lists a 'volcano activity report' on the following page that identifies Popo as a submarine volcano, even though Google Earth shows it to be 76.59 miles from the ocean. Can you explain why it should be called a submarine volcano as opposed to a stratovolcano?

It is RSOE! What more need you say? Accuracy is not their strong forte.

Popo is indeed a stratovolcano. The GVP (Smithsonian) details can be found here

Looking back at the table of conversions in this post I see that Mag 5.9 Ml converts to Mag 5.88 Mw.

The Italians have the quake as 5.9 Ml - Magnitudo(Ml) 5.9 - EMILIA-ROMAGNA - MODENA 20/05/2012 04:03:52 (italiana) 20/05/2012 02:03:52 (UTC)

So if the locals have it as 5.9, why do the non-locals differ?

SCARDEC have it as 6.2 Mw
Geofon have it as 6.1 Mw and of course as we know
USGS have 6.0 Mw

Then I note that LDEO has this as mag 6.4 Mw

2012 5 20 2 3 52.0 44.75 11.25 33.0 6.4 NORTHERN ITALY

Is it any wonder people are confused about magnitudes!

I am having doubts about LDEO. Remember that they were completely against the swim with the Indonesian quakes 8.6 and 8.2 which they had as 8.0 and 7.8 respectively.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by murkraz

 

You said could push out a 7?

According to the Czechs it did

seis.ig.cas.cz...

I'm not sure what I think at the moment. The 5s keep hitting the area steadily.

Not sure why I'm invested into this spot, just solely based on bad vibes I guess.

Persistant thing.


2012-05-20 22:21:00.0 39.65 N 143.64 E 10 5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-20 22:14:44.0 39.65 N 143.46 E 25 4.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-20 12:54:51.0 39.40 N 143.64 E 20 4.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-20 08:41:44.0 39.58 N 143.08 E 10 5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-20 08:20:57.0 39.67 N 143.32 E 10 5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-20 07:19:55.0 39.56 N 143.25 E 10 6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-19 22:15:49.0 39.51 N 143.70 E 33 4.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-19 19:16:39.0 39.65 N 143.47 E 10 5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-19 19:13:44.0 39.61 N 143.45 E 10 4.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-19 19:05:20.0 39.76 N 143.19 E 10 5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-19 00:08:42.0 39.62 N 143.28 E 10 4.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-18 21:32:28.0 39.72 N 143.26 E 30 4.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-18 21:23:23.0 39.71 N 143.22 E 05 5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-05-17 06:51:09.0 39.40 N 143.15 E 30 4.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
 

reply to post by PuterMan


The M6.4 at LDEO is from their surface-wave matched filter detector. I'm not sure how it related to their CMT solutions, which generally appear slower.

I just checked, and their CMT has shown up as M6.1


201205200203A NORTHERN ITALY

Date: 2012/ 5/20 Centroid Time: 2: 3:58.5 GMT
Lat= 44.93 Lon= 11.33
Depth= 12.0 Half duration= 2.7
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 6.2
Moment Tensor: Expo=25 1.450 -1.360 -0.092 -0.467 0.556 0.484
Mw = 6.1 mb = 0.0 Ms = 6.0 Scalar Moment = 1.66e+25
Fault plane: strike=96 dip=35 slip=68
Fault plane: strike=302 dip=58 slip=105

www.globalcmt.org...

Well...

Looks like all the 20th of May doom & gloom has amounted to very little, other than the Italy quake which eventuated with unfortunate deaths.

Condolences to all the families of those that lost loved ones...watching the news there were a lot of similarities to our Christchurch 2011 Feb 22nd quake. It just goes to show what damage even a low 6 mag can do, and makes you wonder what a 7+ could do if they hit in one of these built-up areas.

Longtime without a 7+ and has certainly slipped well outside the 30 day average, as we are now around 40 days since the last one.

^ I wouldn't pack up the tent just yet. Keep your eyes peeled for the 21st and 22nd.


This area continues to spit out quakes. They seem to be occurring more east now.

I have to ask, are swarms like this normal that far out in the ocean? There has to have been at least 15-20 quakes over the short-term and they just seem to be picking up more.

That looks really weird. Like it started at the edge of the reef moving inward.

Looking at this stuff makes me kinda paranoid.

in different ways, it seems like there are very interesting patterns behind many of the recent quakes.

Some claim that some of the quakes are happening near US bases and people are doing articles on it... like the European union Times.... and then these look like something is trying to tunnel through the steep rock ledge.

I know this thread doesn't need to get bogged down by conversation but it reminds me of an experience I had and then there are these claims... and this well, it DOES look really weird.

Yeah, let's keep watching that area indeed. Let's see if this keeps moving east.

reply to post by murkraz


I've been watching this area also. My Quakefeed app has been ticking off quakes in this spot pretty regularly for a couple of days now.

Is there any way we could get a list of these quakes wih depths attached?

My computer is in rebuild limbo right now (installing a new video card to play diablo iii, and have to get a new case because the configuration is wonky) so I can easily look them up and have the list in one place.

I expect aftershocks of the 9.1 to continue for quite some time, but I find it odd that year seem to be clustering this closely together.

Almost like another major break is in the works...

Originally posted by jadedANDcynical
reply to post by murkraz

 

I've been watching his area also. My Quakefeed app has been ticking off quakes in this spot pretty regularly for a couple of days now.

Is there any way we could get a list of these quakes wih depths attached?

My computer is in rebuild limbo right now (installing a new video card to play diablo iii, and have to get a new case because the configuration is wonky) so I can easily look them up and have the list in one place.

I expect aftershocks of the 9.1 to continue for quite some time, but I find it odd that year seem to be clustering this closely together.

Almost like another major break is in the works...

Well, this area appears to be 100 miles, give or take a few, from the area of the 9 mag.

I, as well am strung between quakes and Diablo III, haha. Here is the list.

Mag - Date - Time - Lat/Long - Depth - Location

4.4 2012/05/17 06:51:11 39.493 142.961 32.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

4.7 2012/05/18 21:32:28 39.645 143.168 27.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 2012/05/18 21:23:26 39.677 143.172 16.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

4.8 2012/05/19 00:08:44 39.578 143.367 22.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.7 2012/05/19 19:13:45 39.647 143.447 10.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.9 2012/05/19 19:05:19 39.709 143.345 5.4   OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.5 2012/05/19 22:15:49 39.509 143.700 32.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

6.0 2012/05/20 07:19:55 39.597 143.242 10.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 2012/05/20 08:41:45 39.641 143.091 10.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 2012/05/20 08:40:40 39.554 143.208 10.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 2012/05/20 08:20:58 39.641 143.167 10.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.6 2012/05/20 12:54:48 39.236 144.160 17.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.6 2012/05/20 22:14:44 39.471 143.464 25.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 2012/05/20 22:21:04 39.603 143.602 30.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

4.5 2012/05/21 01:11:56 39.451 143.759 28.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.5 2012/05/21 01:03:18 39.349 144.046 37.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.8 2012/05/21 00:46:15 39.502 143.449 33.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN