Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by PuterMan


I'm sure you watch the bulletins more closely than I do.

But still, this "Mw as I understand it refers to the radiated energy of the earthquake and thus other energy considerations do not come into it. " is incorrect. Me is based on radiated energy, Mw is based solely on moment, which is simply slip x area x modulus. Again, if the slip is sufficiently slow rather than typical, no energy is radiated, Me = 0, yet Mw does not depend on the timing of the slip. If the slip is instantaneous, energy released and Me are infinite, yet again Mw is unchanged.

Moment is not energy.

I just want to admit to how dense I can be at times. Rather, it's like I put on horse-blinders and refuse to acknowledge anything that is not on my selfish radar. I know I've been talking passed people and refusing debate, and only making political statements. I feel once again I should apologize for making the general remark that geologists are basically prostitutes. I've toned down and refined my assessment of the rock jockeys and told aorAKI that I indeed knew that not all geologists were evil super villians. For a while I thought Tony Hayward of BP was a geologists. But later learned he was an engineer. Anyway, since we have geologists visting us here, I guess I shouldn't be so rude and extreme.

When Puterman first introduced JohnVidale, something got filed in my head, but since my life is a living hell at the moment, I read but had no comprehension. I suppose I put him on a parr with the fake geologists we had on the Yellowstone thread last year. It was nothing other than the fact I could not distinguish between things and had no desire to engage with you all. I'm sorry. I think if you've read much of what I write you know I'm out here- half lost on my own trail. I'll get there sooner or later.

To be honest, I was reading John's and Puter's debate on magnitudes scales, but, much of it was Greek. To me, and to many of the readers here. The debate really doesn't interest me. All I want to know is if it's small, medium, or large. Then there's mega.

Puter, there's a project for you. Create an equation that will give you a universal scale. Use the metric scale of 10. Start a petition- crowd source or something to get ideas, or get the professionals to start to want to unify. Globalization baby.

Anyway, the reason I'm writing is that it's finally clicked in my head who John Vidale is, even though I really already knew. I was doing some reading and there was John being quoted in an article by Wired. I guess I was just figuring John was an eager student or something. I know this all should have been apparent, but it seems what we have here are a few geologists, and some citizen scientists that will answer our questions. (Duh. that's me duhing as I explain the situation to myself)

The real groovy thing is thatin the article, John was discussing one of my favorite topics. The moon. I'll post link for the arctile where John is quoted. But I want to post original articles which discuss prediction. Prediction is one of my favorite areas as well. But it's hard. Not impossible. Just- really, really hard. Because there's a billion variables.

www.wired.com...

www.wired.com...

www.wired.com...

I'm going to write a bit more- just afraid something will happen within next minute and I'll lose this.. it happens

When aorAKI told me they were a geologist, I wanted to tell them all my kooky ideas and hypotheses. But I figured they all ready read about them and dismissed them. I've long since given up on the hard sell. Now, I'm almost resigned. If I wasn't such a stubborn s.o.b., I might not care about my secrets at all. They're my secrets because I'm the only one that believes in them. I'm going to describe some of my ideas, and I'm just throwing them out there. I want no mention of them. The only way I would ever try to explore them again is if someone else, could and would believe, and set about finding the proof. So, I'll make some statements and let go it. Then I may lose my mind again for a while. My life's changing again. damn.

Here's my ideas... Like Ripley said,
Beleive it or not.

1. Hudson Bay was formed by 3 mega volcanoes 448-300ish million years ago. Youngest beinging the southeast semi-circle.

2. Earlier mega eruptions ejected magma into orbit much like CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) . The material collected and it became our moon. VME Volcanic Mass Ejection. Or mega eruption. It's really just a big hydro-thermal explosion. Or a mega phreatic/phraetic eruption. Don't worry about pronouncing that one correctly, they can't agree on spelling. Sorry.

3. The eruption at Thera ejected magma which vapourized and turned into a sulfuric acid cloud. It condensed over the cities of Soddom and Gammorah and the rest is history. Lots wife did not turn into a pillar of salt. She dissolved as if she were a pillar of salt that was left in the rain. The acid rain.

4. Earthquake Prediction. I scored a prefect prediction by using the lunar cycle and was able to predict the second largest swarm in Yellowstone's recorded history within hours. I had to correct the YVO. They had wrong start date. Documented here on ATS on the Yellowstone thread.

The moon is going to be big next month. Why am I writing this? I just am. You don't have to read it.
And please, let it lie unless you're going to pick up the fumble and run it into the end zone. I can't, my leg is bent backward and wrapped around my neck.

I may be deluded. And quite frankly I am confortable with that thought and love the brain teaser that is delusion. I believe in one way or another we all delude ourselves. I think my doctor is deluded. He said that I cannot be suffering delusions because I am aware of the fact that I may be deluded. But wait. If my delusion is that I am the world's smartest man/person, wouldn't it makes sense that I would understand the concept of delusion and would have to ask myself the question of whether or not my precepition of reality is true or false. Indeed, I've had a constant battle to find the lines of delusion and reality and how they blur together. My doctor is deluded. In fact, most to the medical profession is deluded. They believe anti-depressants work. They are no better than placebo. Yet, this being the truth, how can doctors continue to prescribe them? They don't want to believe the alternative. They are denying the new findings because they cannot cope with reality, and so they ignore it and continue as they've always done. England is ahead of the game. They've stopped using anti-depressants as a frontline defence against depression. Bravo state health. They don't want to pay for unnessary treatments.

Wow. sorry sorry sorry. It's my need to infom I suppose.

I'm a bit embarrass to show my big bare ass out here. I think sometimes I make these big bold claims and rant so that I will someday say something so stupid I can never take it back and therefore be so ashamed that I never come back. (i keep thinking someday i'll accidently link to porn- a tv station made that boo boo just the other day. good morning, he's some porn to start your day)( billy's milk and ceral pouring down his chin as he tries to comprehend the new commercial!?)

Shakes head.

reply to post by ericblair4891


Eric,

Just because I was quoted doesn't make me infallible. Puterman already has pointed out inaccuracy and sloppiness in my posts. You may not be fond of my opinions on tides, but we're never really sure, which is half the reason I'm reading and writing here.

John

reply to post by JohnVidale


you rock

And I don't know what you guys are complaining about. At least they post all the big ones. I have been waiting days for Utah to post the ones south of Yellowstone. But nope. No one cares about the little ones. If I hadn't been monitoring the area, I would be still thinking it was real quiet. They're not much better at posting the ones in the park. But at least they show up. Two this morning, both

Don't often post, but this one is a bit odd.... Don't hear many originating from this part of the world:


Magnitude ML 3.2
Region AUSTRIA
Date time 2012-04-24 18:46:04.7 UTC
Location 47.49 N ; 12.73 E
Depth 5 km
Distances 112 km SE Munich (pop 1,260,391 ; local time 20:46:04.7 2012-04-24)
42 km SW Salzburg (pop 145,309 ; local time 20:46:04.7 2012-04-24)
11 km NW Saalfelden (pop 16,119 ; local time 20:46:04.7 2012-04-24)

Source parameters not yet reviewed by a seismologist


More information at:

Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe Hannover/Erlangen, Germany
Landesamt fuer Geologie, Rohstoffe und Bergbau Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany
ZentralAnstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik Vienna, Austria

Originally posted by ericblair4891

There's a bigger one somewhere at the moment. They haven't posted yet. Doubt it's 5.3 last listed.

Agreed, (using my new magnitude range scale) its more likely a "strong" quake (range 5.5-6.5) than "moderate" (range 4.5-5.5) based on SNZO
In fact Geofon have it as a 5.6

5.6, 2012-04-24 15:15:41, 24.19°S, 175.63°W, 33, M, South of Tonga Islands

The trace on SNZO is mixed in with the Nicobar Is 5.6, but that shouldn't make much difference to the highest spikes, in fact I'd say it looks more like a 6.0 to me, based on yesterdays Kemadec Is ( closer) 5.7 trace size


Ahh now I see why its so big and long, there was a deep "moderate" (4.7/5.0) just prior same area
5.0, 2012-04-24 15:01:52.0, -18.21, -178.05, 550, West of Tonga Islands
5.6, 2012-04-24 15:15:39.5, -24.24, -176.18, 20, South of Fiji Islands
RAS


I came back to say;
there is NO WAY that South of Fiji @15:15 is a 5.3, compared to the 3 x 5's on the 23rd (same area)
SNZO 23/04/2012

USGS has lost the plot

Here's a small one. A 3.4 in SO.California at 12:45pm. I'm posting only because i'm basically sitting right on top of the epicenter. Depth was 17.4km.

I heard a rumbling for about 3 seconds that gradually got louder until my house shook for a couple seconds. It almost had a "snap" feel to it, if that makes sense.

My dogs barked and the ducks and birds got all excited out in the back.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by bg_socalif

1.898 tonnes of TNT going off 17.4km below you would do that

reply to post by JohnVidale


As i said earlier we may be talking at cross purposes here. Yes Mw is a measure based on the seismic moment Mo, and as you say Mo is based on the shear modulus etc and Mo is measured in dyne-centimetres. I would remind you that dyne-centimetres is a measure of work done, or it always used to be, An erg is the amount of work done by a force of one dyne exerted for a distance of one centimetre, and ergs are a measure of energy/work, which can also be measured as joules. An erg is a measure of energy and mechanical work.

Going backwards.......

Mw < Mo < dynes/cm < ergs < joules < energy thus Mw IS in fact a measure of energy. I think we can rest the matter there and if we still differ, then we agree to differ.

PM, everybody, anyone,
What would cause these goofy looking signatures? For example at 20:09, 20:24, and 21:36 utc found here. This is Crater Lake, OR, USA; station code CC.CLMS..EHZ

Snow cover? Defective equipment?
This is the only station I see it on. Thanks for the help.

reply to post by PuterMan


I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I wrote another argument, but deleted it as I don't think many here care much.

reply to post by Olivine


I don't know, but something like a pump in the area might turn on and then off again at irregular intervals. Or an intermittent electronic glitch. I could ask the CVO guys, but don't want to bother them at the moment.

further to post by muzzy

I like to latch onto individual events and see them through to the death
Todays victim was the 5.3/5.6 South of Tonga at 15:15 which made a significant trace on SNZO.

OK, now USGS have 5.6Ms on the Detaills page, 5.6Mw on the CMT and BWMT but still got 5.3 GS on the phase data

I can't be bothered screenshotting it, so heres the copy and paste of the Ms parameters off the Details page, before it changes again

NST=229, Nph=229, Dmin=591.6 km, Rmss=0.92 sec, Gp= 79°,
M-type=surface wave magnitude (Ms), Version=A

How often do you see Ms used by USGS these days eh?

still looks bigger to me, maybe it was a 5.8
ML



I think I got the graph figured out, I had to colour code the arrival times to see it.
The Nicobar Is 5.6 quake happened before the S of Tonga, but the S of Tonga P wave arrived 54 seconds before the S wave of the Nicobar Is, and being closer to SNZO the trace is more intense so wipes out the smaller sized Nicobar S wave, you can see the LR wave of the Nicobar is arriving near the end of S of Tonga.
There is no LR arrival tiime available for S of Tonga, this seems to be the nature of quakes closer to the SNZO station, incl Kermadec and Macquarie Is quakes (no LR wave arrival times)

BTW, NZ back on track again , 25 quakes for the 23rd UTC,

Looks like GFZ were doing a Special on 5.6 yesterday , for limited time only get your magnitude 5.6 quakes here

2012-04-24 15:15:41, 5.6, 24.19°S, 175.63°W, 33, South of Tonga Islands
2012-04-24 14:57:15, 5.6, 9.03°N, 93.99°E, 27, Nicobar Islands, India Region
2012-04-24 09:50:59, 5.6, 5.67°N, 61.54°E, 10, Carlsberg Ridge
2012-04-23 22:40:23, 5.6, 48.36°N, 154.77°E, 31, Kuril Islands
2012-04-23 21:21:46, 5.6, 0.40°N, 125.48°E, 68, Northern Molucca Sea

reply to post by muzzy


Being a visual sort of person, would it be easy'ish for you to plot those on a map muzzy? I would like to see how close/on fault lines those high fives were. Just thinking about the 'jackhammer' effect is all...as you know by now I am a bit like eric and tend to look at things from outside the box with my right brain, whilst my left understands as much as it can cope with, with the science and maths.



Thank you if you can oblige
Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by JohnVidale

but deleted it as I don't think many here care much.

Never make that assumption John.

If a discussion gets too in depth or just goes back and forth in deadlock and is in danger of disrupting the thread you can rest assured someone will say so! Ultimately everything in the Universe is energy, even us so.....

Alternatively if any one thinks the discussion needs to be continued, but not on the thread, there is always the u2u system or the other little visited general thread for discussing stuff: Robinesque Ruminations

I am sure Eric would have no objections to things being discussed there.

reply to post by Olivine


Not quite sure what you are pointing to one that seismogram. Looking at it on the BUD version I see wind and a big telemetry spike.

If it has moved on and it was the 24th UTC you were refeing to then 2 telemetry spike and the transmission threw a sickie in the middle of it. CLMS.CC..EHZ.2012.115

The sickie and spikes are seen much better on the plot of the MSEED file for the day (if you have QVSData installed it will do this for you: View > Webicorder Files (or just Ctrl W), fill in your station details and make sure the MSeed box is ticked.)



Going off to have a listen to the last 6 hours of the day.


Last 6 hours on the 24th for CLMS as displayed in the Audio conversion window of QVSData



Having had a listen to it all the way through I would say that the bulk of the noise is transmission interference - possibly the incoming CME? The spikes seem to be interference of an electrical nature as well. Was there a storm in the area? Sounds a little like lightening affecting the transmission.

No seismic content anyway.

One for you Eric.

I was just idly glancing at the display that tells me new quakes are in and noticed Wyoming. I pulled up the details and this is what I found:

Import Counts @2012-04-25T15:22:29
UTC Date/Time: 2012-04-25T14:22:29Z
New records: 7
Revisions: 0
For Review: 0
Existing Alternatives: 0
New Alternatives: 0
Duplicates: 1944
Deletions: 0
New Zealand lookups: 72
Errors listed: 0
Warnings listed: 0

2012-04-24T08:39:39.000Z|1.1|Yellowstone National Park. Wyoming|04240839|uu
2012-04-22T22:30:34.000Z|2.1|Wyoming|12904990|mb
2012-04-22T22:22:42.000Z|2.3|Wyoming|12510377|mb
2012-04-22T22:13:12.000Z|1.8|Wyoming|12115764|mb
2012-04-22T17:41:29.000Z|1.1|western Montana|12721150|mb
2012-04-25T14:13:30.100Z|2.6|BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA|263882|emsc
2012-04-25T14:07:08.000Z|3.0|WESTERN TURKEY|263884|emsc

Source: QVSDataService

I have not looked at the locations yet but note that these go back as far as the 22nd! and only just came in now (see the time at the top of the list)

To add: The last item is the network.


Here is the list for Wyoming and Montana for the past 7 days M1.0+

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2012-04-25 07:47:00, 45.336, -112.505, 1.4, 0.0, Western Montana
2012-04-24 08:39:39, 44.666, -110.457, 1.1, 5.0, Yellowstone National Park. Wyoming
2012-04-22 22:30:34, 43.795, -111.002, 2.1, 7.8, Wyoming
2012-04-22 22:22:42, 43.797, -111.013, 2.3, 8.3, Wyoming
2012-04-22 22:13:12, 43.794, -111.004, 1.8, 8.0, Wyoming
2012-04-22 17:41:29, 46.620, -112.504, 1.1, 12.4, Western Montana
2012-04-22 15:59:11, 44.796, -112.721, 1.2, 3.6, Western Montana
2012-04-21 06:21:03, 44.726, -111.879, 1.6, 7.3, Western Montana
2012-04-20 20:01:09, 45.793, -110.994, 1.3, 9.8, Western Montana
2012-04-20 07:53:51, 44.597, -112.092, 1.5, 13.8, Western Montana
2012-04-19 23:55:09, 45.794, -110.993, 1.3, 11.6, Western Montana
2012-04-19 10:19:37, 45.395, -112.581, 1.1, 6.9, Western Montana
2012-04-19 01:41:17, 46.611, -112.515, 1.4, 11.1, Western Montana
2012-04-18 10:30:31, 44.567, -112.959, 2.0, 12.0, Western Montana
2012-04-18 00:16:27, 45.278, -112.586, 1.2, 9.9, Western Montana

www.nasa.gov...

newsinfo.iu.edu...

blogs.scientificamerican.com...

I think the earth is kinda almost back to normal. An interesting April indeed. But if I were to go back in time and make a prediction about activity in a future 2012, I would have pointed to May and said that's really when to look hard. Reason is the moon. However, with all this recent activity, I wonder if the earth has shaken itself out and nothing other than normal stuff will happen. The moon will be very close during the full moon. But it's not just the full moon I look at. We got perigee, apogee and the new moon. It's the relationship of it's position that I think creates "the pump" I've tried to describe. What I think will be neat next month is that the full moon and perigee at in the same hour. Then the new moon will be at perigee. The difference between this moon cycle and the one in 2008/2009 and 2010 is that the earth is not at it's closet point to the sun as it is during perihelion around Dec/Jan. So, I don't think it's exactly the same sequence and may not create as much "tidal" effect.
Maybe if nothing happens in May I can shut up....

Oh, Ruminations. Isn't a ruminant an animal that chew on its own stomach's leftovers? Robinesque. What a dis-jointed, manic cry for help. I've got a great new study that shows anti-deppresants have only minimal benefit and the risks can be greater than thought. Well. That's what you get when you cherry pick your studies... oops started tirade too soon...

Oh wait, one more thing which is volcano-like but could be tied directly to recent siesmic events in Mexico.
I've been watching Popo. The winds are heavy today so it has flatten the steam column so it's hard to tell, but I think that sucker is heating up and could blow big time. Problem is I wasn't watching it before so I have no reference point how it was acting before this most recent rumblings. If someone knows better speak up.

Yes Puterman Thanx. I gave up waiting for them to get listed. I knew they were there and approx. size so I was placated. This is the norm as we know they don't post Yellowstone's earthquake right away either.

reply to post by ericblair4891

Problem is I wasn't watching it before so I have no reference point how it was acting before this most recent rumblings. If someone knows better speak up.

I have looked at Popo a few times over the past months. Can't say i have ever seen anything out of the ordinary for it.