NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Having lived for many years near the Texas coast, I'm a hurricane obsessor as well. Thank God, here in Arizona, it's the unlikely one from Baja, that we even feel. This looks like a bad one...I'll keep watching the updates.
joey

This storm may be historic by the time it has run its course. A dedicated category was opened at www.climatepatrol.com... to archive NHC discussions, NHC advisories, IR satellite images, water vapor images and news articles. Hopefully this will be useful.

Definately a big bad storm. I don't think it will hit florida. I think it might turn more north west and hit maybe georgia or south carolina.

Nice well defined eye of the storm though. It's a beauty.

Image coutesy of www.noaa.gov...

Its definately going to be interesting. I hope some members take pics and post them here. Video would be great but not everyone has that ability.

Ok. What are we missing here?

THREE Hurricanes in one month, almost four, all mof them big and nasty?

Doesnt that just kinda bother you?

Its almost like god is cursing Flroida for the last election, and making sure they dont screw it up again!

It's a conspiracy to make sure there are no voters left in Florida!!!

Hold on everyone, looks like a bad one!!!

In what has been a CRAZY August the 8th storm of the month has formed. Here is the official 5pm AST advisory from the National Hurricane Center

"000
WTNT33 KNHC 292055
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN AUGUST...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHTH
OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$"

I have updated information on the latest forecast models. These are compiled from a number of different sources.

www.climatepatrol.com...

One image does a comparison of five models. I've also included updates on a couple out to 144 to 156 hours and the MRF model. AVN, UKMET and MRF all have the storm going in to Florida. I was unable to locate any runs on BAMM out far enough to determine whether it had the storm going inland in Florida or not. GFDL was farther east and NOGAPS has been all but written off by the NHC due to poor performance.

The development of Hermine will throw a wrench into the works when it comes to forecasting. Will this slow the development of the ridge of high pressure that is forecasted to keep the storm moving west north west? The next 24 to 48 hours should speak volumes.

I'm wondering how prepared the people of say Miami are prepared for a cat 5 hurricane. Would they evacuate the whole city? Here are some links for preparing for a hurricane.

www.dom.com...

www.usatoday.com...

biz.yahoo.com...

I read in one tip to evacuate inland 20 to 50 miles, I think farther than that in Florida would be better. I keep forgetting the one about having lots of cash available since ATM's, credit cards, etc. won't be any good if the power is out for up to 2 weeks or longer.

Good links. Problem with a cat 3+ storm in Florida is you really don't get the benefit of being inland all that much. Florida is very flat and the storms don't lose much intensity as they move across the state. And the big difference between Charley and Frances will be the area of space the hurricane force winds cover.

The eye of the storm is approximately 15 miles across. With Charley the hurricane force winds extended about 15 miles out from the center in all directions. Taking out the eye that leaves an estimated area of 1400 square miles with hurricane force winds (numbers rounded). With Frances the winds extend out much more. They extend 30+ miles in all directions. Using the same formula the area of hurricane force winds is just over 4200 square miles or a difference of 2,800 miles between the storms. The latest NHC predictions has the area growing to 40 miles out from the center of the storm. If that were true that would bring the coverage of hurricane force winds to 6900 square miles compared to 1400 of Charley. Tropical storm force winds in Frances cover approximately 21,000 square miles. It seems like an impossible number. I had to do the simple area of a square to realize the numbers were right.

Remember with a hurricane the really bad winds are confined to an area maybe 5 miles out from the eye. There is a path 25 miles wide (5 + 15 + 5) where destruction is all but guaranteed. Take a drive for 25 miles and imagine everything you see being destroyed. That is the reality that may face someone in 6 days or so.

Over the past 12 to 18 hours Frances hasn't exactly looked the best. Outflow from the storm was confined mainly to the northern half. Sheer had been taking its toll on the storm and the winds had come down from 135mph to 120mph and from the NHC reports the 120mph observations may have been generous.

Over the past 4 to 6 hours Frances seems to be undergoing a transformation. There is now good outflow visible in all quadrants and there has been a burst of very heavy convection on the south side of the storm that seems to be wrapping itself into the center. The storm is also moving into a more favorable environment with less sheer and warmer waters. We may be seeing the beginning of a spike in strength. Look for a jump up in sustained winds and a sharp drop in pressure over the next 12 to 24 hours or so.

Here is a comparison of the storm from 08-29-2004 16Z and 08-30-2004 15Z

www.climatepatrol.com...

Here is a visible and IR closeup of the storm near Puerto Rico. Impressive images.

www.climatepatrol.com...

Here is an item of concern from the 08-30-2004 11am AST discussion from the National Hurricane Center

"ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN."

Definately something to watch.

They are reporting the hurricane force winds on this one are extened out 85 MILES from the eye!

This is not looking good. Keep posting Indy, you are giving the best information I can find at the moment.

There are rumors here in Daytona, that if this storm doesn't change over the next 24 - 48 hours, a mandatory 72 hour evacution order could come through on Wednesday.

It's going to go through temporary fluctuations in strength, that's very normal.....
It's now looking better and is forcasted to go back up to 135 mph in a day or 2.

It's a beautiful classic looking storm

Its looking REALLY good. Also please don't hotlink images. A hotlink is when you post a link here to the original image. The reason I say that is because that original image may change. This will certainly be the case when you like to a satellite image somewhere else. If you hotlink your satellite loop then a day from now we won't know what your original image looked like.

Make sense? If possible save the image and upload it to your personal space here and post the image. That way a week from now people can see exactly what you were talking about.

From an e-mail group I belong to (weather buffs, retired mets, etc...):

BTW, Thomas Giella knows his $hit. His past discussion about Charley's turn was quite interesting.

[EDIT] Entire message pasted here so there's no doubts as to its authenticity.[/EDIT]

------------------------------

There are 6 messages in this issue.

Topics in this digest:

1. ANOTHER Tropical Storm off Coast of Carolinas?
From: "Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix)"
2. Re: [Weathervine.com] Re: Hurricane Frances
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF"
3. Unusually Hot/Humid @ WeatherMatrix HQ
From: "Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix)"
4. AccuWeather World Weather Highlights Sunday, Aug 29
From: [email protected]
5. CAT 4 Hurricane Francis
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF"
6. WeatherAmerica Extreme Wx Headlines For Monday, Aug 30
From: [email protected]


________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________

Message: 1
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:08:29 -0400
From: "Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix)"
Subject: ANOTHER Tropical Storm off Coast of Carolinas?



FROM THE NHC:

"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH."

Use the satellite images on the Tropical Storm Gaston page to view this
second storm, amazing...



--
===================================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist / Webmaster / Founder - WeatherMatrix
8000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net




________________________________________________________________________
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Message: 2
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:34:29 -0400
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF"
Subject: Re: [Weathervine.com] Re: Hurricane Frances

Barbara et all,
It looks like Hurricane Frances is undergoing some reorganization as is the norm, so has stopped strengthening for the moment. The cyclone is also wobbling as well as making small heading changes in response to the weather systems to the north. A brief period at a CAT 5 cyclone is still possible.

It's still likely that Frances' eye wall will pass approximately 100 miles north of your location of 18.1 deg N, 63.1 deg. W. And yes you "could" experience some tropical storm force winds, as Frances is a large storm.

BTW, though I still feel at this moment that Frances will turn NW-N and past east of Florida and possibly threaten the Carolina's, right now the south and central Florida peninsula is in danger.

Once again though I add this disclaimer. Confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
[email protected]

SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: www.kn4lf.com...
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: lists.contesting.com...

----- Original Message -----
From: Barbara
To: [email protected]
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 6:24 PM
Subject: [Weathervine.com] Re: Hurricane Frances



Hi Thomas
thanks for your reply.I enjoy reading your posts and emails.
do you still feel that Frances will pass North of 20N? On another
weatheer site, one of the mets said:
"Along it's current forecast track...Frances will pass to the north of
the islands...but close enough to potentially create tropical storm
conditions there. Tropical Storm watches will likely be issued later
tonight or in the morning...which suggests that there could be some
downed tree branches and as a result a potential loss of power.
Residents with boats should consider securing them at some point.
Should the hurricane deviate just a little south of it's current
track it could still conceivably affect the northern most islands."
would you agree with that?
Now the question is when would we know if there is a deviation south?
and does it look like it has stopped it's NW run and is about to start
a WNW run? It is directly East of us at the 5 PM update.




--- In [email protected], "Thomas Giella KN4LF"
wrote:
> Hi Barbara,
> Very nice to hear from you. I have retired from weather
forecasting effective May 01, 2004. As I do not pay for real time raw
weather forecasting data any longer, my forecast accuracy has dropped
from the mid 90% range to the mid 50% range at the 3 days out point on
tropical cyclones.
> In any event I'm pretty confident that Frances will pass north of
the 20 N 63 W and then the Greater Antilles and then turn NW-N through
the T & K's and Bahama's and threaten the Carolina's. However it's
possible before that that Frances will make a bead for Miami and the
Keys before turning away, having scared the heck out of everyone with
a lingering mental Andrew-ism. It's also increasingly likely that
Frances could reach short lived CAT 5 status, as someone on this list
first suggested a couple of days ago.
> Looks like we also have T.S. Hermine east of T.S. Gaston, though
the NHC has not even designated it as a T.D. yet. Gaston may reach CAT
1 status and rake the coastal Carolina's. It could also pull another
Alex by rapidly intensifying. Hermine will stay out to sea possibly
threatening Bermuda. We also still have a homegrown tropical cyclone
threat in the Gulf Of Mexico next week.
> If the NHC designates a T.S. Hermine then we have 8 named storms in
August, probably in the top three historically for activity?! I think
we will probably witness a 2004 hurricane season as busy as in 1995.
> By the way I send these emails out in response to persons with
present queries and persons with past queries. If I send something to
you that you don't want to receive just let me know.
>
> Take Care,
> Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
> Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
> Plant City, FL, USA
> kn4lf@a...
>
> SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
> NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
> CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
>
> KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
www.kn4lf.com...
> Radiowave Propagation eGroup:
lists.contesting.com...
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Barbara
> To: [email protected]
> Sent: Friday, August 27, 2004 3:52 PM
> Subject: Re: [Weathervine.com] T.S. Frances
>
>
>
> Thomas
>
> the models have been changing so much. Does it still look to you like
> Frances will pass North of the islands? I live in the Northern lesser
> Antilles and, believe me, Frances has everyone worried. I'm at 18.1 N
> and 63.1 W.
> anything you can tell me would be appreciated.
> Thanks
>
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (www.grisoft.com...).
> Version: 6.0.744 / Virus Database: 496 - Release Date: 8/24/2004






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________________________________________________________________________
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Message: 3
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 15:35:47 -0400
From: "Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix)"
Subject: Unusually Hot/Humid @ WeatherMatrix HQ

My heat index (old formula) surpassed 90 degrees at 10am this morning and
hit 100 at 2:30pm this afternoon before it clouded over. This is unusual
for Central PA in general, but especially so this summer since it has been
so cool. This was our highest Heat Index so far this summer, and the
maximum heat index ever observed at my station (since 2001) was only 108 in
2002.

www.weathermatrix.net...


--
===================================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist / Webmaster / Founder - WeatherMatrix
8000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net




________________________________________________________________________
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Message: 4
Date: 29 Aug 2004 23:40:01 -0000
From: [email protected]
Subject: AccuWeather World Weather Highlights Sunday, Aug 29

August 29, 2004 8:34 a.m.

Typhoon Chaba continues to approach the southern parts of the
Japanese mainland as of early Sunday morning, EDT. Though the storm
has crossed near some of the Ryukyu Islands, the storm has not
brought much in the way of strong winds to many of the islands. The
storm was 295 miles south of Sasebo, Japan, and was moving to the
northwest at 12 mph. Winds were sustained at over 115 mph with gusts
of over 145 mph. The storm is forecast to take a more northeastward
track and move over the southern parts of Japan as a weak Typhoon.

Typhoon Songda is continuing to move to the west-northwest at 18
mph as of early Sunday morning, EDT. The storm is currently over open
waters nearly 875 miles east of Saipan. The storm has sustained winds
of 80 mph with gusts of over 95 mph. Songda is forecast to continue
strengthening as it moves north of Guam and into the western Pacific
over the next several days.

Heavy rains indirectly linked to a tropical depression, now
dissipating, soaked Guam Thursday and Friday. A total of 4.4 inches of
rain fell at the international airport on these two days. August,
indeed much of 2004, has been unusually rainy here. As of Sunday, the
total rainfall for the month of August stood at 35.2 inches whereas
August's mean rainfall is 13.6 inches. Through Saturday, nearly 107
inches of rain have fallen here since the start of the year; this is
about 60 inches above average! In June, a record-setting 38 inches of
rain fell.

Tropical Storm Georgette continues to slowly move into the
central Pacific and away from any land. The storm as of early Sunday
morning, EDT, is 730 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Winds are sustained at 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph. The storm is
moving west at 13 mph as it is expected to continue on a general
westward track over the next few days as it weakens.

The heat continues for much of Cordoba, Spain, as temperatures
the previous few days have continued to climb to over 100 degrees.
Thursday saw a high temperature of 106 degrees as the average high is
nearly 88 degrees.

Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland had a stormy start to their weekend.
Saturday morning saw moderate rain and winds sustained at 56 mph from
the east.


*****************************************************
STREET-LEVEL RADAR, FORECAST RADAR LIGHTNING & HAIL
30-DAY FREE TRIAL @RADARPLUS.ACCUWEATHER.COM...
*****************************************************

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This service provided under agreement with AccuWeather
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Message: 5
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:48:11 -0400
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF"
Subject: CAT 4 Hurricane Francis


Barbara et all,
Looking at the latest satellite images It looks like Hurricane Frances is beginning to undergo a bit of SW shearing. Also some eyewall restructuring still seems to be occurring, so she remains a CAT 4 cyclone with maybe some slight weakening. SW shear should increase as Frances reaches 60 deg. west longitude through approximately 70 deg. west longitude and this may inhibit strengthening to a CAT 5 in the middle term.

The powerful high pressure ridge to it's north continues to strengthen and build west, the cause of Frances' westerly turn earlier today. Earlier I took the liberty of looking at more modeling and what I see is troublesome. I'm seeing a trend of more models coming into agreement with a continued lower latitude westward track for Frances. If this verifies then any low pressure weakness that "may" be left behind by Hurricane Gaston (yes it was a hurricane when it came ashore in S.C.) and future T.S. Hermine could not pull Frances NW-N east of Florida and/or the T & K and Bahama Islands.

It's still likely though that Frances' eye wall will pass approximately 100 miles north of your location of 18.1 deg N, 63.1 deg. W. And yes you "could" experience some tropical storm force winds, as Frances is a large storm.

But what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it were to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone. A third option, one of bad news that just makes me shudder! A nightmarish CAT 4 strike to deep South Florida and a WNW-NW movement across the peninsula exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico north of Charlotte Harbor.

Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
[email protected]

SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: www.kn4lf.com...
Radiowave Propagation eGroup: lists.contesting.com...




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Message: 6
Date: 30 Aug 2004 09:57:01 -0000
From: [email protected]
Subject: WeatherAmerica Extreme Wx Headlines For Monday, Aug 30

-- THIS IS A *SUMMARY ONLY* TO SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE PLEASE SEE BOTTOM OF EMAIL --


HEADLINES:

Gaston Remnants, Advancing Cold Front Create Torrential Rain Scenario For
Much Of Atlantic Coastal Plain; Weakening Of Hurricane Frances Is Only Temporary!
Powerful Storm May Be Nearing Category 5 Intensity Upon Its Approach To
Southeastern U.S. This Weekend


EXPECTED NORTH AMERICA SEVERE OR EXTREME WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS:


SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24
hours)



Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
SE LA....S MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....WV....PA
DE....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....QC Eastern Townships

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NM....CO....SW KS....OK Panhandle....W TX

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
BC....AB....C, S SA....S MB


HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)



Scattered Locations In
SE LA....S MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....WV....PA
DE....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....QC Eastern Townships
(QPF 1-5")

Isolated Locations In
BC....AB....C, S SA....S MB
(QPF 1-2")

Isolated Locations In
NM....CO....SW KS....OK Panhandle....W TX
(QPF 1-2")
______________________________________________________________________

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[edit on 8/30/2004 by titian]

Here is a model comparison. The first image is a summary of models yesterday. The 2nd image was taken about 1:30pm CDT on 08-30-2004 . The source of the images is wunderground.com . If you aren't a member there you really gotta check that place out. The are the best source of images, radars, etc that I have found.

Taken 08-29-2004


Taken 08-30-2004



You will notice a very decisive shift west in the forecast.

Brand new run. Updated only minutes after the last post.

Originally posted by Indy
Its looking REALLY good. Also please don't hotlink images. A hotlink is when you post a link here to the original image. The reason I say that is because that original image may change. This will certainly be the case when you like to a satellite image somewhere else. If you hotlink your satellite loop then a day from now we won't know what your original image looked like.

Yeah I know. I have it saved. I just wanted to post the .gif to show the changes throughout today. I'll edit and upload a still tonight or tomorrow...

The 5pm AST advisory for 8-30-2004 has been released by the NHC. The winds are back up to 125mph and signs are it is getting stronger. There was an 8mb drop in pressure which is the biggest indicator what this storm is doing. Here is a quote from the 5pm discussion released by the NHC.

"THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...275/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME SLOWING AND A SLIGHT BENDING OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS."

Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Here is the 5pm update on the projected path of the storm.



I'll gather the latest satellite images and water vapor images and post them shortly.

Looks like we'll be getting bucket-fulls of rain yet again here in Tallahassee....woohoo!!!

If it hits on the projected orange path above, I'll be able to give ATS plenty of pictures

[edit on 8/30/2004 by EnronOutrunHomerun]