NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Hurricane Frances made landfall near Stuart in Martin County just before 10 p.m. Saturday. With 2.5 million people evacuated the casualty numbers are expected to be light but figures are not yet available. The powerful hurricane has been classified as a Category 2 currently but may exceed category 3 status when it makes landfall. Its point of landfall was in Martin county on the South Eastern Florida coast


Florida has been put in a state of emergency by Governor Jeb Bush

Stay tuned for a full update.

Full County-By-County Breakdown

Coastal Evac Routes. Courtesy WESH
Melbourne Doppler

NewsSites:
WESH2
WFTV
Miami SuperDoppler.
images.ibsys.com..." target='_blank' class='tabOff'/>

3 Day Track
5 Day Track
Strike Probabilities

Florida Advisories Map.

...LARGE HURRICANE DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 27.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH. A
SLOW WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE STRONGEST WINDS SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF
FRANCES SHOULD REACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

Full Text

NOAA ADVISORY SYSTEM BULLETIN FRANCES 44
Full Text of Advisory 44A ***8:20pm EDT***
Full Text of Advisory 43A
Full Text of Advisory 41A
Full Text of Advisory 39A
Full Text of Advisory 37A
Full Text of Advisory 36A
Full Text of Advisory 35A

ATSNN can exclusively reveal that the NASA facility at The Kennedy Space Centre is under high risk of being hit head on by Hurricane Frances. We'll have more details of that soon but the projected path takes the eye very close to the centre and its vast complex of buildings.

WFTV Early Warning Doppler covering Daytona, Orlando, Melbourne & Kennedy Space Centre

Doppler Loop: Daytona, Orlando, Melbourne & East Florida. 1hr loop continuously updated
Atlantic Satellite Image
Gulf Coast Radar
National Rainfall .Gif
Gulf of Mexico Infrared Image

I�ll be continuously updating this thread as new info comes in. If you have pictures of the storm submit them to [email protected]


RELATED ATS
FLorida On Alert - Indy's thread

RELATED NEWS
Washington Post
ABCNews
Los Angeles Times
Voice Of America
The Independent
Newsday
CNN
Reuters



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ORIGINAL SUBMISSION BY INDY
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Hurricane Frances continues to grow in the Atlantic. At 11pm AST on Saturday the storm was packing winds of 135mph sustained. It is predicted that Frances may reach category 5 strength some time Sunday.
At day 5 the forecast has the storm just south and west of 25N and 75W. This puts the storm dangerously close to Florida as a very strong category 4 and maybe a category 5 storm. Another direct hit to Florida could be catestrophic. Between Charley and Frances it wouldn't be unlikely to see combined damage totals of $40 to $50 billion dollars. This will greatly impact homeowners insurance in the state.

Now for the worst case scenario. As this storm approaches Florida it will become ever more likely of it turning more Northwest around the backside of a high pressure area. This will give it the chance to ride the coastline north for many miles. If this were to happen the damage totals could be astronomical. I have seen storms ride the coastline before. Never a storm this strong. Not saying it will happen but the approach of this storm from the ESE and the fact that its being kept south by a building ridge leads me to believe that a ride along the back side up the coast is possible. Such a scenario could result in the destruction of everything from West Palm to Daytona Beach. Such a scenario may make getting homeowners insurance in Florida afterwards impossible.

[edit on 3-9-2004 by Nerdling]

[edit on 9-4-2004 by Valhall]

[edit on 4-9-2004 by Nerdling]

[edit on 4-9-2004 by Nerdling]

[edit on 4-9-2004 by Nerdling]

[edit on 9-6-2004 by Valhall]

Here is the 5 day forecast as of 11pm AST saved for future reference.

www.climatepatrol.com...

Ay ay, will it never end?
Charley gave the scientists a surprise.
These storms are very unpredictable it seems.
I guess we will know more in a couple of days.
I wouldn�t want to be in its way...

Hellmutt... Charley only gave the inept scientists at the NHC a surprise. It was easy to tell from the stellite images that the storm wasn't going to go that far north. And the structure of the storm and the water temps made it apparent that the storm was going to get much stronger. Unfortunately these forecasters are under pressure from the governor to fudge the forecasts a bit.

What about Gaston, getting ready to slam into South Carolina soon. So many storms already this year, and they are bad storms. Something is up with the weather.

Originally posted by Indy
It was easy to tell from the stellite images that the storm wasn't going to go that far north. And the structure of the storm and the water temps made it apparent that the storm was going to get much stronger.

Indy

Do you really live in Iowa? It sounds like your either a meteorologist or a long-term Floridian in the line of sight. I know how it feels to track these things obsessively, having lived in New Orleans, LA, for 22 years.

The Iowa thing is a joke from the movie Mr. Deeds. I live in Indiana but I lived in Florida for 15 years. I understand the movement of these storms and how to track them about as good as anyone. The one thing I've learned in my life is to never put faith in a hurricane forecast. EVER. Any forecast over 8 hours is a crap shoot. You are dealing with systems that basically create their own currents. Hurricane Andrew was a prime example. Sure once the thing turned west the guess work was out of the forecast for it because of a massive high pressure system to the north. There was no way it could turn north. It was orignally predicted (in a short term forecast) to go out to sea. But for whatever reason the currents didn't pick it up and pull it out ot sea. Instead it got ripped up pretty bad and left behind. Then the high built in and the rest was history. In about 24 hours it went from the worst possible conditions to the best possible conditions. And it wasn't expected.

Yes, we are closely monitoring this storm.

Here are a couple of sites for those who are interested:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

wwwa.accuweather.com...

This one is pretty cool as you can set it to your own geographic area and can see the storms moving in. The Miami site is temp. down:

www.srh.noaa.gov...

I lived in South Florida during hurricane Andrew and have seen what these storms can do. Our family members down in south Florida are making plans to evacuate the state.

My sister was hit pretty bad in Orlando during hurricane Charley. Strangely enough, her screened porch wasn't damaged. Her plumbing was all ripped up alongside her house from a tree getting uprooted.

This storm looks pretty bad.

Indy I have family in Florida and most of them just got telephones back 4 days ago. I couldnt imagine another monster storm plowing thru there again. On the lighter side, my familys business is lumber so they are set to make quite a bit more money. Indy, do you think governments are fooling around with the weather? I dont really think so, but I guess the technology is out there. Nah, it couldnt be.

When hurrican Andrew hit, they said it was a full moon and it was high tide when it hit land. The full moon made the water level higher in addition to it being high tide.

Our family left the Keys and went to a shelter, FIU in Sweetwater for the duration of the storm.

The Keys weren't hit too bad, but from Sweetwater south to Homestead, it looked like a war zone.

This storm, doesn't look as though it is going to slow down, only pick up strength. We'll have to watch this one.

mako

Would they try? Hell yes. Could they? No not really. The best they can do right now is to seed a storm and there are conflicting stories as to what that will do. Some say it will weaken the storm and others think (and probably rightfully so) that it will strengthen the storm. You can probably seed and strengthen a single cell but hurricanes are far too large to try and alter. There was an experiment a few years back where researchers had dumped some kind of crystals into a thunderstorm off the coast of florida and claimed that as a result the storm fell apart. It was absolute nonsense. I've seen what happens to storms off the coast. It isn't uncommon to see them fall apart on their own. An aircraft cannot hold enough crystals to make a storm fall apart. Storms are miles high and miles wide. An airplane is a hundred to two hundred feet in length and maybe 50 or 60 feet wide. I don't care if you got a thousand to one ratio on the crystals you still aren't going to dry up a cell. Let alone a hurricane. The only thing that could disrupt that storm is a nuke in the eye.

I have family in Florida and I worry for them. I feel an urge to go down there to try and video tape the storm. But since I have a family that probably isn't the smartest idea. So I'll just have to watch this one on TV.

Hopefuly this will make a sharp turn to the Atlantic. All we can do is hope for the best. Thanks for the posts. gnite

Originally posted by Indy
The only thing that could disrupt that storm is a nuke in the eye.

That would be an extremely dangerous experiment.
Imagine a radioactive hurricane...

I wonder if a MOAB could disrupt it enough?

Originally posted by Hellmutt

Originally posted by Indy
The only thing that could disrupt that storm is a nuke in the eye.

That would be an extremely dangerous experiment.
Imagine a radioactive hurricane...

OMG, what did I just say?
I wonder if terrorists have thought about this as well...?

That�s a very disturbing thought...
Would the radiation from i.e. a dirtybomb be contained within the hurricane?

[edit on 2004/8/29 by Hellmutt]

Explosives (including nukes) won't do a thing. Hurricanes are just too powereful

www.aoml.noaa.gov...

Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.

wow...

I don't think it's in the curriculum of the South Florida Aviation Schools to teach reconaisance missions over the eye of a hurricane.

Originally posted by mako0956
I don't think it's in the curriculum of the South Florida Aviation Schools to teach reconaisance missions over the eye of a hurricane.

Oh yeah, forgot about that. Hope you�re right.
And that they won�t find a way to do it anyway.
If they succeeded doing it however, would it be realistic?
I mean, would it be a potentially dangerous "weapon" or would it just be a waste of a bomb they could have used a "better way" so to speak?

The idea behind using a nuke isn't go make the storm go away but rather to disrupt the circulation. Since the eye of a storm is 15 to 25 miles wide a nuke could seriously disrupt the flow of air into the center. You better be certain that it would take a storm from a cat 5 down to a tropical storm because if it doesn't you are going to have a massive outflow system spreading radiation over hundreds and hundreds of miles.


Now as of last forecast run 5 of the models are split at about 4 days. Two models have the storm slightly north of the Bahamas. 3 of the models have it in the southern Bahamas. The fate of someone will rest in how much the high pressure ridge builds in. Forecast estimates 5 days out have the storm at around 150mph and in a favorable environment with low sheer and SST of around 30c.

11am AST NHC update on the Frances forecast.

www.climatepatrol.com...

I'll be posting a series of forecast updates. This should give you a good visual of how the models are swinging from update to update. As the storm gets closer to land I will update strike probabilities as well.