NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Still a few days away, but still, though we were missed by Charlie, we're still preparing. I've still got me storm shutters down from Charlie, so I'm just leaving them down. Still got a lot of the supplies I had from Charlie too, but I'll fill in what we've gone through since then... We'll likely have our friends stay with us again, if it comes close enough to mandate evacuations....

Boards are ready to go up over the windows, and some of the lesser used and seen windows are still taped up (as we were worried about the one right after Charlie)...

It's kind of funny though, as the media often says, if you're in the path of this storm, get out... To where? Such storms are the size of the state! Not to mention, those who did that in Charlie, ended up leaving the bay area (which was unscathed) and headed to places like Orlando, (which ended up getting hit)!!! Personally, we'll just batten down the hatches... Besides, traffic is bad enough here, let alone with thousands beating feet... I'd feel safer in my home than in a car on a highway, when it comes along....

The storm data remains relatively unchanged since the 8am advisory. There has been some bouncing around of the models. Late yesterday evening (well my evening but everyone elses night lol) the models went into disagreement and some shifted much more to the right. Since then BAMM, GFS and NOGAPS have all made sizeable shifts back to the left. Still waiting for a UKMET update. Only GFDL remains somewhat unchanged.

Here is the model summary...



Here is the 11am AST path prediction from the NHC. The shift a bit north may be a result of the one model being so far off.

Here is a 40 frame animation from the Puerto Rico nexrad radar station.

www.climatepatrol.com...

Source: wunderground.com

great.

I live in Jax.

We have been hit only once. Hurricane Dora in 1964.

We may be due.

08-31-2004 2pm AST Intermediate Advisory

Frances now has 140mph sustained winds. Pressure has dropped quite a bit down to 942mb.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

NHC Vortex Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.

;

This message is reporting a 940mb low. This was observed just after 1pm EDT. This is an indication that the storm continues to strengthen. I'm curious what the official report will be at 5pm AST.

5pm AST Advisory from the NHC for 08-31-2004 has been released. The storm is still packing winds of 140 mph but the pressure has dropped again. Not sure which number is correct. The NHC advisory lists it at 939mb and the NHC discussion lists it at 938. In either case it is a significant storm. Remember at the 11am AST advisory today the pressure was 950 mb. So whether its 939 or 938 is pointless. The pressure has dropped 11 or 12mb in 6 hours.

For a history on NHC advisories on Frances consult my archive at...

www.climatepatrol.com...

Advisory source is none other than the National Hurricane Center

With the latest update of the NOGAPS model at 8am four of five major models are in agreement and have the storm making landfall on the east coast of Florida as a major storm. A category 5 is still possible given the current sea surface temperatures and the condition of the upper atmosphere. This is an amazing looking storm.

If you haven't seen the latest image you really must see this...

www.climatepatrol.com...

Sorry but its a bit large (dimensions and file size) to post here. Nearly 100k.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this thing. This is a perfect looking storm and there is nothing for the next day or two that should stop this from at least holding its own if not getting stronger. Beyond that window the storm will need to dodge islands in the Bahamas.

This was taken in Florida immediately after hurricane Charley went thru. Any idea what this could be?
Its posted on www.coasttocoastam.com
Thanks

Looks like something on the lense of the camera based on the way its blurred.

www.nnvl.noaa.gov...

www.nnvl.noaa.gov...

www.sun-sentinel.com...

Looks like a yield sign....or a kite...

[edit on 8/31/2004 by EnronOutrunHomerun]

8pm AST advisory from the NHC for 08-31-2004

The storm is still at 140mph sustained and the pressure is holding at 939mb. The storm is now moving WNW at 15mph.

Tues night - Daytona area.....



Some of the gas stations have no gas.


By the time they say evacuate the question will be how?

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

I saw an article on the wesh.com website talkinga bout evacuations for Brevard County and they were talking AS SOON AS Thursday. I'm like.. wtf. This isn't Hurricane Erin people.

All I now is I'm keeping a full tank of gas over the next few days... The day before the storm, it was like the 70's gas lines!!!

Cat 4 now huh? Yikes.... Well, if it swings near us, I'll let you know how things are here....

Yes sadly i live right on the east central florida coast we are going to go to our faimlys house i had a bad feeling about this one a deathly feeling i don't know i'm only 15 school court this only adds to the worry of everyday life we stayed for charley so are you all gonna sit this one out with us fellow ATSers?

[edit on 31-8-2004 by Makaveli777back]

Look at it this way. You might get a month off from school

BTW.. 11pm AST advisory due out soon. Signs are a burst of strengthening may be coming on.

The 11pm AST advisory has been released. While the currents stats for the storm remain unchanged the forecast is rather disturbing. The forecast has it approaching the Space Coast of Florida with winds of 130 KT sustained. That is 150mph. When Hurricane Floyd approached the Space Coast a few years back with 155mph winds it was said, "if Floyd remains on its current track, they will shut down Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral. The cape is situated only nine feet above sea level -- Floyd could deliver a storm surge 18 feet or more above normal tides."

Source: www.disasterrelief.org...

That is UP TO 18 feet. That is the possible number under the right conditions. So even if you get a 15 foot surge you then have 20 to 25 foot waves on top of that. So the top of the wave is 35 to 40 feet above normal. I used to live there. I can tell you that you have to go quite a way inland to get 15 feet above sea level. Then of course you have those monsterous waves on top of it. There simply is no good place on the coast of Florida for this to hit. The absolute worst place is probably Jacksonville. Anway.. here is the 11pm update on the projected path.

OMG the eye is passing directly over me and either place we go my aunt ginas or anywhere we are like 8 min walk from the water! like 3 min drive LOL thats a bad switch it made your right it's the waves i worry about not the wind i'll get some batterys and try to take some digi cam pics guys! i'll try to get some good shots