UARS is now officially off track! T-minus impact on earth. Make a guess where it will land!

The predictions...

1. At the twitter account UARS_Reentry, we have a plot of altitude over time, showing the most likely reentry time/date of 00 UTC on September 24th...



...although his actual tweets indicate a reentry time of 01 UTC on September 24th.


2. aerospace have a predicted reetry time of 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ± 7 hours.
But this a prediction made yesterday, so a more current one might be made soon.


3. NASA still show "afternoon or early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time", so depending how you interpret that, lets say 3pm to 7pm, would be 15 UTC to 19 UTC on September 23th.

If it lands on my house, will I be insured and can I get compensation from NASA?


Oh and you can follow it here...

heavens-above.com...

Keep refreshing to get latest info

Originally posted by Whisper67
The Today Show just stated that your chance of getting hit by space debris today is: 1 in 3200.

I'm not liking those odds.

I believe they mean the chance of it hitting someone is 1 in 3200. You probably have to divide that by 7 billion to have the exact odds it hits you personally.
I might be mistaken.

nasa cant not equate it. the odds are something like 1 in 9,999,999,999,999,999 you have to calculate the everage object size the expected number of pieces that will survive re-entry and the total land mass (occupied) then divide by about 1.5 sqm

proberbility of it hitting any-one (YOU) is = (size X objects) / (land mass size equivekent in sq meters / 1.5sqm) / global population


So dear congress,when nasa tells you they need more money to track these things better,just tell them Sure we will cut your bonuses and obsene wages and media (self glorification) expenses,and youll have enough money to not only do that but also build a moon base

reply to post by hrmmm


The probability of it hitting someone is not the same as the probability of it hitting you.
The probability of someone being hit is the 1 in 3200 range. I think someone said the probability of that person being you is more in the 1 in 22 trillion range. Of course it would be one in one for the guy it hits i guess..
Who knows.. it does seem like NASA should be able to tell us exactly where it will land though doesn't it? Did they fire all the mathematicians?

NASA say not to touch any of it, or take it away, as it is their property, I am sure that they would back up that claim by law if you did, however if the satalite flattened your house, they would use the same law to deny any blame that their property had anything to do with them. Apart from that, I was under the impression that everything NASA does and owns is paid for by the American tax-payer, so how can they claim to own it. The same goes for any Apollo debris/props lying around in the cold and inhospitable depths of some dark and desolate................. film studio.

Nasa is stating it should fall around 3pm, and just north of Australia
, according to this site..

global.christianpost.com...

reply to post by Qwenn


and if it lands in china?
i dont think the chineese will say "sure here are your spy satalite pieces" lol


ermm actually they might,as they allready own the usa by debt default.

Is there a spread in vegas on where this will land?

Does it not strike anyone as ironic that a nice, fluffy climate satellite, deigned to "monitor ozone and chemical counts in the upper atmosphere" is about to come screaming back through said atmosphere and impact earth? A black project, Chinese government spy satellite I could understand.........

I wonder ? If it falls on my head, will that be classed as " touching it " ? would I not only be dead, but also in dead trouble as well ? I hope that they have a comprehensive compensation package in place, because they will find themselves truly fluked if it really does cause injury or destruction. A falling satalite is not an act of God, it is truly an act of Man.............

reply to post by KingJod


it will fall into a govenment building. the crash will cause the building to collapse on its own footprint. there will be plenty of video but none will be released to the public. the tragedy will prompt our government to invade Narnia.



just kidding, most will burn up in the atmosphere on entry and the remaining stuff will land in the ocean.

-subfab

Please someone can tell me the actual altitude of UARS? the tracking server is too busy

reply to post by greenCo


heavensabove.com are tracking it in real time, and the site isn't too busy
2nd line

They're taking bets on where it will land!

www.sportsmemo.com...

Water
Pacific Ocean 8-11
Atlantic Ocean 2-1
Indian Ocean 6-1
Arctic Ocean 10-1
Southern Ocean 10-1
Lake Mead 100-1

Land
Africa 9-4
South American 11-4
Asia 3-1
North America 3-1
Australia 6-1
Europe 8-1
Antarctica 16-1
Sportsmemo Headquarters 100-1

It will probably be the pacfic ocean it really depens on the timing. They say they rule out North America right now but if it does not fall by evening then you can put North America back in.

The 11.00am news gave it a mention today, saying " Nasa say a satalite will be re-entering Earths orbit, they expect some fragments will fall on the Earth " they made it worse with showing a photograph of it, it looked about as big as a postage stamp, they never mentioned that it was really the size of two double decker busses. They said " if you are in the right place at the right time, you may see some of it burn up in the atmosphere ". If you were really in the right place at the right time, you would be nowhere near it !

All in all, a 30 second mention at the end of the news, where they usually close with a humourous section or a fluffy bunny spot, I just bet it lands on me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

reply to post by KingJod


wouldn't it be great if it hit NASA Texas.

reply to post by Doublemint


Houston we have a problem !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(N)ever (A) (S)atalite (A)ccident ( well not yet )

Originally posted by MissConstrood
heavensabove.com are tracking it in real time

Heavens above are NOT tracking it in real time.
They, like everyone else, are just running mathematical calculations based on the orbital elements.

The orbit data is extracted from the following two-line orbital elements,
1 21701U 91063B 11266.44054071 .04722588 11590-4 35607-3 0 6303
2 21701 056.9410 265.5265 0005547 007.8879 352.2426 16.39807254109075

In reality, NORAD are the only people tracking it.
They cant lie about it either, because satellite watchers can see it from the ground.
Here is a small article about the Space Surveillance Network.