Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

reply to post by Vitchilo


Something to note also is,the higher up you are the stronger the winds.
It might be 80mph at ground level,but 115 mph 25 stories up in a highrise.

Back in Sept. 1989,I was in hurricane Hugo.
It was really bad.
Just a reference on my history with hurricanes.

Hurricane Hugo was a destructive Category 5 hurricane which struck the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe, Montserrat, St. Croix, Puerto Rico, Antigua and the USA mainland in South Carolina during September of the 1989 Atlantic hurricane season. This intense hurricane tracked through the Lesser Antilles and to South Carolina as a category 4 hurricane, and was the costliest hurricane in the Atlantic at the time. Hurricane Hugo formed over the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, 1989. Hugo moved thousands of miles across the Atlantic, rapidly strengthening to briefly attain category 5 hurricane strength on its journey. It later crossed over Guadeloupe and St. Croix on September 17 as a category 4 hurricane. Weakening slightly more, Hurricane Hugo passed over Puerto Rico as a strong category 3 hurricane. Further weakening occurred several hours after re-emerging into the Atlantic, becoming downgraded to a category 2 hurricane. However, Hugo re-strengthened into a category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Isle of Palms, South Carolina on September 22. Hugo had devolved to a remnant low near Lake Erie by the next day. Hurricane Hugo caused 34 fatalities(most by electrocution or drowning) in the Caribbean and 27 in South Carolina,[1] left nearly 100,000 homeless, and resulted in over $10 billion (1989 USD, $17.7 billion 2011 USD) in damage overall, making it the most damaging hurricane ever recorded at that particular time. The hurricane caused $7 billion (1989 USD, $12.4 billion 2011 USD) in damages within the mainland United States alone, the costliest hurricane in American history at the time, but was later surpassed by Hurricane Andrew three years later. During the 2000s decade, the amount of damage associated with Hurricane Hugo was surpassed several times, by the following storms: Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne (tied), Katrina (which also surpassed Andrew), Rita, Wilma, Ike. As a result of Andrew and the tropical cyclones in the 2000s decade, Hugo now ranks as the ninth costliest hurricane in the United States.

en.wikipedia.org...

I don't like hurricanes.

Originally posted by kdog1982
I don't like hurricanes.

The only ones who do are the keynesian economists.

Hurricanes create jobs you see, to rebuild and clean.

Keynesian economists would have an orgasm if a city were to be nuked... imagine all the jobs it would create!

reply to post by Vitchilo


That is the upside for me,I hate to say.I have been unemployed for a month,and because of this storm,I will be back to work.

Strange how the east coast has already experienced a record number of harsh storms this year followed by an earthquake on a near non-existent fault line. Not to mention how "strange" it is that so many nuclear facilities are positioned near this sleepy "fault line". And let's not mention that the fukashima disaster was also centered near a nuclear facility, hmmmmmm "strange" isn't it? Now I'm not saying that HAARP or CERN or any government project has anything to do with this but I do find the coincidence awfuly suspicious. And now comes the hurricane....also near many nuclear facilities....coincidence or something more? I believe it's atleast a formidable question to ask ourselves. If our government were responsible for these disasters, wouldn't you want to know?

Irene causing mandatory evacuations in New Jersey - 750,000 people

Sky News Link

ATS Thread

Breaking news... Bloomberg evacuating ``zone A`` of NYC... Which is about 270 000 people...

And so the evacuation begins.

Update : Shelters opening by 4PM tomorrow...

Bloomberg asking residents to evacuate now because roads, bridges, and mass transit CANNOT SUPPORT a full scale evacuation.

Transit authority says mass transit cannot run in sustained winds over 39 mph... Damn... what a weak transit system.

Broad Channel, Midland Beach, and Battery Park City, Conney Island and Manhattan Beach affected for now.

Hurricane Irene New York: Top 5 Dangers of a Hurricane in the City

1. Storm surge
2. Debris everywhere
3. Goodbye, subways
4. Economic paralysis
5. Difficult to evacuate

They forgot 6. People ...

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Breaking news... Bloomberg evacuating ``zone A`` of NYC... Which is about 270 000 people...

And so the evacuation begins.

Update : Shelters opening by 4PM tomorrow...

Bloomberg asking residents to evacuate now because roads, bridges, and mass transit CANNOT SUPPORT a full scale evacuation.

Transit authority says mass transit cannot run in sustained winds over 39 mph...

Damn... what a weak transit system.

Broad Channel, Midland Beach, and Battery Park City, Conney Island and Manhattan Beach affected for now.

Hurricane Irene New York: Top 5 Dangers of a Hurricane in the City

1. Storm surge
2. Debris everywhere
3. Goodbye, subways
4. Economic paralysis
5. Difficult to evacuate

They forgot 6. People ...

edit on 25-8-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

They were also talking about all the cranes in the city,like around the building at the WTC site,and they are only designed to withstand 65 mph winds.

reply to post by kdog1982


Yeah that's what I was about to post...

Cranes going down could do quite a lot of damage...

The official report from NOAA

000 WTNT44 KNHC 252052 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER WINDS. IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION... IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 27.0N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 28.7N 77.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 30.6N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.5N 77.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 34.5N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 39.8N 74.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1800Z 48.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z 56.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Storm surge in NY in case of hurricane... this is pretty bad if NY gets hit even with just a Cat. 1... with a Cat.2, it would double the area flooded...


Full scale map :
NY Storm Surge Zones PDF

With a cat.2, JFK airport is flooded.

"FORECASTER BROWN"
as in,,,, # hitting the fan, brown??
was just so obvious.
sorry i know its not funny,, but FORECASTE "BROWN",,really?

Latest :

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

944 MB of pressure is Category 4 territory... so within hours it could be Cat.4...

reply to post by kdog1982


I was here in Virginia for Floyd in 96 and Isabel in 2006 and numerous hurricanes of lesser interest over the years. I was on Long Island when Gloria went through. I was three years old when Hurricane Donna hit NY and I remember that storm very clearly because we lost a very big tree in our back yard. I have a lot of hurricanes under the belt but this one is clearly not like anything I have experienced before. I do not have to evacuate as of yet. I am extremely close to the coast but I do not live on the beach. I have a river that empties into the bay a block from my house and I am at the mouth of that river. It came within 240 ft of my house during Isabel. Should be some interesting times ahead for me.

is that an 800 mile front?
outer rings?

reply to post by karen61057


Karen, You need to evacuate now!!!! Please don't wait for the official word - it may be to late by then and you may get stuck in traffic.... This storm is like no other witnessed here in the in many, decades. Yes, I was through Floyed, Gloria etal. - - Folks, if you have somewhere away from the coast - inland = go now!! If for some fluke this storm goes out to Sea (highly, highly unlikely) then just think you had a little vacation. So much better to be safe and out of harms way with a plan then stuck at the last minute caught in traffic or unable to escape immentant danger!!!!! It's a matter of your life and the ones you love.

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

So... Pressure to Cat. 4 levels... just the winds don't get faster... hopefully they don't...


Anyway, I've heard on the weather channel that the jet stream, just north of the hurricane, will keep the hurricane from weakening and will make it stronger... it's called a ``jet streak`` or so he says...

The latest news is that the eye is getting more and more defined and bigger and bigger...


Me thinks we'll see Category 4 tomorrow if not bigger... Me thinks NY will be in for a rough ride.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

So... Pressure to Cat. 4 levels... just the winds don't get faster... hopefully they don't...


Anyway, I've heard on the weather channel that the jet stream, just north of the hurricane, will keep the hurricane from weakening and will make it stronger... it's called a ``jet streak`` or so he says...

The latest news is that the eye is getting more and more defined and bigger and bigger...


Me thinks we'll see Category 4 tomorrow if not bigger... Me thinks NY will be in for a rough ride.

Chad Meyers (from CNN) just stated that the pressure is in fact getting weaker, meaning the storm and the surges are moving faster and will be rougher......

Originally posted by toxicblud
Strange how the east coast has already experienced a record number of harsh storms this year followed by an earthquake on a near non-existent fault line. Not to mention how "strange" it is that so many nuclear facilities are positioned near this sleepy "fault line". And let's not mention that the fukashima disaster was also centered near a nuclear facility, hmmmmmm "strange" isn't it? Now I'm not saying that HAARP or CERN or any government project has anything to do with this but I do find the coincidence awfuly suspicious. And now comes the hurricane....also near many nuclear facilities....coincidence or something more? I believe it's atleast a formidable question to ask ourselves. If our government were responsible for these disasters, wouldn't you want to know?

You know what???

You're making me think and consider how 'strange' these last 3 days have been for the east coast, namely New York and DC....

good point

reply to post by ButterCookie

Chad Meyers (from CNN) just stated that the pressure is in fact getting weaker, meaning the storm and the surges are moving faster and will be rougher......

Yeah that's what I said... pressure getting to Category 4 levels... so it doesn't look good at all.