Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

Linked on Drudge from Accuweather

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Mike Pigott stated, "Irene is taking a track farther north than originally forecast."

With Irene taking this more northerly track, it will make landfall in Puerto Rico Sunday night. Flooding rains and tropical storm force winds will blanket Puerto Rico, with 4 to 8 inches of widespread rain and isolated amounts of a foot possible along the northern facing hillsides.

Irene will then graze the northern edge of Hispaniola Monday into Tuesday. While the interaction with the mountainous terrain of the eastern Greater Antilles will mitigate the intensity of Irene for a time, the more northerly track will allow for intensification into a hurricane by midweek.

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Should be an interesting week ahead. Hoping everyone stays safe and dry.

Here's handy-dandy link for keeping track of tropical storms and hurricanes.
Stormpulse
I am not a meteorologist not do I play one on TV so always check with official sources such as the NHC for all projected path information as well as watches and warnings!.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT

From the NHC 5pm Intermediary Advisory:

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

The projected path has moved a little eastward. The next full advisory will be at 11pm eastern and will include the recon data that the hurricane hunter plane is currently gathering.

Tomorrow I have some storm prep to do if the path doesn't change dramatically. Another fun site to determine the closest point of approach of the storm is StormCarib. Enter your lat & lon and it will compute it based on the storm's current projected path.

These are the results for my location:

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 27.1N, 80.6W or about 26.4 miles (42.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 108.8 hours (Friday, August 26 at 5:48AM AST).

26.4 miles. YIKES!

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Stay safe all and check official sites for official info.

Hurricane Irene - cat 1

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC 8am eastern Advisory
First visible satellite image of Hurricane Irene this am.
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This shaping up as a potentially dangerous situation for folks along the east coast from south Florida to the Carolinas. The center of the system has moved off the north coast of Puerto Rico leaving over 800,000 without power and many downed trees. At the height of it's impact on Puerto Rico major hurricane strength winds were recorded at some of the higher elevations. And, it appears that Irene mightl only skirt the northern coast of Hispanola thereby avoiding the mountainous areas that could help to shred the storm.
From the NHC 5am discussion:

IIRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

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All I can say is I really don't want a visit from Jim Cantore at TWC. Center is currently forecast to be 30 miles to my east as a Cat 2! Have to go measure for plywood now and pray the models trend east. Godspeed to ALL effected.
Always check with the NHC for forecasts and advisories

Category 2, that's nothing!

Stay safe!

reply to post by Vitchilo

Category 2: 96–110 mph
Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg
Storms of Category 2 are strong enough that they can lift a house, and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Vegetation, poorly constructed signs, and piers can receive considerable damage. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings. Extensive to near-total power outages and scattered loss of potable water are likely, possibly lasting many days.[11]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 2 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity, include Diana (1990), Erin (1995), Alma (1996), Marty (2003), Juan (2003), and Tomas (2010).

en.wikipedia.org...
(the expert on all things)

LOL. 100mph sustained winds. AHHHHHHHHHHHHH! You haven't seen my house! It might blow by though.

Heads up Charleston, SC

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Good news and bad news....while the Irene is tracking a little further east (good fo me) the NHC has upgraded it's intensity forecast to a Cat 3 starting in about 3 days (8am Thursday). This means that the first Atlantic hurricane of the season may be a Major Hurricane.

Here are the wind speed probabilities:
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www.nhc.noaa.gov...
There is still considerable uncertainty with Irene's eventual path.

Everyone between Miami and NC neeed to be keeping an eye on this. A landfalling Cat 3+ hurricane can result loss of life and in profound damage to property and infrastructure.

Please check the NHC site for official info and advisories.

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NOAA
Wunderground
Weather.com
Accuweather

Tuesday PM – 100 mph (Cat 2)
Wednesday PM – 110 mph (Cat 2)
Thursday PM – 115 mph (Cat 3)
Friday PM – 115 mph (Cat 3)
Saturday PM – 90 mph (Cat 1)

Cities along coast within cone - risk level.

Miami - Low
West Palm Beach - Low
Jacksonville - Low
Savannah - Medium
Charleston - High
Myrtle Beach - High
Wilmington - High

Projected effects of the storm:

Miami | Thursday
Heavy Rain / Wind
80% chance of Precip.
Wind: N @ 38 mph

West Palm Beach | Thursday
Heavy Rain / Wind
70% chance of Precip.
Wind: NNE @ 38 mph

Jacksonville | Friday
T-Showers/ Wind
40% chance of Precip.
Wind: NNW @ 35 mph

Savannah | Friday
Heavy Rain / Wind
60% chance of Precip.
Wind: NE @ 29 mph

Charleston | Saturday
Heavy Rain / Wind
60% chance of Precip.
Wind: S @ 32 mph

Myrtle Beach | Saturday
Heavy Rain / Wind
60% chance of Precip.
Wind: SSE @ 45 mph

Wilmington | Saturday
Heavy Rain / Wind
60% chance of Precip.
Wind: SE @ 35 mph

Expected landfall - Charleston, SC north to Wilmington, NC

Tuesday morning is when we should know within a general area where the storm should go.

For me I never wish this on anyone so I would love for it to just go out to sea but you always look out for yourself first in this situation so I obviously do not want it hitting Florida, specifically Northeast Florida.

The Carolinas do look to be the target:

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However, I will hope for a turn out to sea. And will definitely hope that it does not affect Long Island, or the NE corridor next week.

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spaghettimodels.com...

Could be category 4?

I hope not... that would be real bad.

The coming 11 pm and 5am Advisories ill be very important. The 11 pm will include fresh recon data and other upper atmospheric info lacking from the models until now. .The 5 am will factor in the influential Euro model data.

TWC (Sieber) is heading to West Palm to begin reporting tommorow am. Thank goodness Cantore isn't on the way. That's like putting a big red X marks the spot on the place.. I was at Home Depot tonight and the store was quiet but earlier today generators were a hot item.

Cat 4 in the Bahamas when the storm is hopefully far east of me. Center could be anywhere in the circle though
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Thanks for the updates.Just a little storm.wouldn't even put up the plywood over the windows.
I don't live in Charleston anymore,but I have been through a cat 3.I have notified my friends down there,but they just shrug it off like a good southerner would do.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Hampton Virginia checking in here. I am an avid hurricane watcher because I've lived on the east coast my whole 54 years. NC usually takes the punch out of anything coming up the coast so we rarely get significant damage from hurricanes. The last one to do anything here was Isabel and that followed a very very wet spring and early summer resulting in a lot of tree loss throughout the area and damage to homes not so much from the winds but from the falling trees. There was localized tidal flooding too.
I am watching this as its the first for the east coast this season and it looks like its cooking up to be a major player. My sister lives on Oak Island in NC. That's located south and west of Willmington NC in the part of the state with the south facing coastline. My 84 year old Dad lives with her. I will talk to her later today to see what plans she has if any.
We have again had steady rain this summer. We are just outside a drought area but the rain seems to come quite regular a few nights a week. I am a gardener and so pay attention to the rainfall. I know I have not had to water too much this summer as the thunderstorms dump about a 1/2 inch to an inch a week it seems. With the ground saturated we are likely to see significant tree loss again if the storm comes inland over NC.

reply to post by karen61057


On a lighter note in the resulting three state black out following Isabel I saw the most amazing night time skies I have ever seen. I stood on a bridge near my home in the city of Hampton and saw, with the naked eye, the eliptical smudge of the Milky Way! You do not get that kind of view within a city. Amazing !
That's one of them silver linings ya know?

Storm name: Irene (AL09)
Date: 28.08.2011.
Wind: 120 Km/h
Gust: 148 km/h
Category: Hurricane I
an earthquake and a hurricane,
god, were only human.

The Puerto Rico government is shutting everything down apparently.

In other news, I hope the hurricane hits Washington DC full on... and maybe Wall Street too... to flush the politicians and bankers down the toilet... to be where they belong, with their kind... the kind that smells.

Latest advisory...

8AM advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

Next one at 11AM EST.

11AM advisory :

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.