Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


NHC says Don will make landfall with 65mph winds.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

It seems that after making a jog to the SW, Don is now moving to the WNW.

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Update:

Just offshore at this point.

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Looks to be southern Texas/Northern Mexico will be getting this moisture:

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And let's not forget this:

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Let's all keep an eye on these areas of atmospheric disturbances that are lining up, shall we?

Texas really needed some heavy rains and Don didn't delivered


radar.weather.gov...

I know storms are supposed to weaken after landfall but this was just to quick

The extreme dryness of the area sucked the moisture right out of that low and Don died a quick and ignoble death providing little to the relief of drought conditions. Any precipitation is welcome though and I'm sure the bit that fell will do some good.

Looking here we see a bit more to look forward to, specifically this image:

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Tied with this one:

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We see that the tropical wave is poised for a track into the Gulf if it survives interaction with the Yucatan peninsula and doesn't get torn to shreds.

The area further out, however is likely to be TS Emily in the near future, so says NOAA's National hurrican Center

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

We should be a little more able to see where it's going mid next week.

Tropical Storm Emily formed a few hours ago near the Lesser Antilles. According to the NHC Emily could cross over Dominican Republic then moving to Florida maybe as a CAT 1 Hurricane.

Let's take a look shall we?

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Haiti and The Domincan Republic are in for it as is Florida.

The east coast will get more rain too.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Puerto Rico and Hispanola will probably get tropical storm level winds. Florida not so much, unlikely.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...?large#contents

Bears keeping an eye on though. (Get it..."eye"?)

!st major system forming now over the Central African Republic, IMO, that is...

Based on Zero Proof, no documentation, and little or no scientific evidence....

Watch this system develop into the first large ( Cat 3 or better ) system of the season....

reply to post by freetree64


Its august, things should be firing up now. maybe tx will get a good ts soon.

Update:

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source

Looks like we had an "F" named storm out in the Atlantic that didn't even get close to land. The next one or more look to do the same as the steering currents are keeping them away from CONUS.

In the Gulf of Mexico, we see little along the US coast as there seems to be a high centered in the Gulf that is keeping everything at bay.

Meanwhile, drought conditions persist throughout the region:

Well this is predicting a big hurricane hitting around Mobile-Pensacola, Alabama on August 30.

Here



I doubt it's going to pan out...

Originally posted by mblahnikluver
Yeah living on the Space Coast here in Florida I am not looking forward to Hurricane season. I just have a feeling it is going to be active.

I like the names but Ophellia stands out as one that will do some damage for some odd reason.

I dont mind small 1-2 hurricanes but anything above well not so much.

I agree, Ophellia sounds sort of ominous, sort of Shakespearean...we shall see. Lee stood out to me as well.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Mobile/Pensacola, huh? I hope not anything too big. It seems every time they get rebuilt and back up and running they get hit again and then everything's broke, closed and have to wait another two years before it's whole again.

Pre-Irene. Recon is flying. They haven't found a closed circulation yet but recon has found TS force winds. Interests in PR and the eastern Carribean need to keep an eye on this one. It takes up a lot of real estate. PR effects could be as early as Sunday the 21st evening if it keep with its current motion.

From the NHC 2pm advisory ;

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ab0e74238fbf.jpg[/atsimg]

We have Tropical Storm Irene!

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.

read more at NHC website

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I'm in the 5 day cone. Better to be in the cone this far out than when the storm is much closer as projected paths can change.

Looks like te Yucatan and southern Mexico is getting doused as well:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f7ebbf59f60f.gif[/atsimg]

I was looking at my satellite app on my iPhone and noticed an area of disturbance earlier this evening. Turns out to have organized just a bit:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b4fd9e2a102a.gif[/atsimg]

More at the National Hurricane Center.

Irene looks to eventually cover Florida, though Haiti & The Domincan Republic are likely to affect intensification.

From the 11pm NHC Discussion:

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST

Currently...
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/72fd7cb093cf.jpg[/atsimg]
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

A northward jog of the LLC would bring it closer to land interaction with Hispanola thereby mitigating intensification. Not a good scenario for the DR or Haiti though.

Thus far the GFS and ECMF have been in pretty good agreement with a S. Florida impact but things generally change over time with model runs. Next 24-48 hrs. are critical.

...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...

Recon is flying again. Center has relocated to the north a bit which increases the liklihood that PR will experience more of Irene's effects. The time to prepare is NOW.

From the 11am advisory:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

The northward center relocation also means the system may miss Hispaonola. The latest GFS (major hurricane model) supports this scenario. Irene is currently deepening and if it were to miss Hispanol it would have a good 48 hrs over water before possibly impacting SE FL, NOT GOOD!

The next full NHC advisory isn't due out until 5pm, however the models are starting to trend eastward. Irene continues to organize and intensify. The East Coast is now in play. The extra time over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream could spell trouble.
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