Comet Elenin is coming!

reply to post by Artorius

Orbital mechanics are quite predictable. That's why we are able to send space probes to very distant planets. That's why we can predict the seasons.

Here's a good example. Comet Linear (C/1999 S4) fell to pieces as it neared the Sun. The fragments continued on, so close to the original orbit that they could be found months later, right where they were supposed to be.

reply to post by Phage


They're QUITE predictable not 100% WITHOUT A DOUBT. I hear what your trying to say, the possiblity Is slim judging by the comets of the past. My point: the sun and space are not as predictable. A powerful CME or solar wind could possibly mix things up...those are just two examples.

What do the numbers assigned to these comets mean? I understand the C-comet and 2010-the year it was discovered, but what is X1?

reply to post by restlessbrainsyndrome

The letter is a code for the "half month" of the discovery. The number is sequential in the event there is more than one discovered in the half month.

Oh ok...thank you Phage for clearing that up for me!

Originally posted by restlessbrainsyndrome
leonids are a group of meteorites

The Leonids are a meteor shower, not a group of meteorites, which is another thing altogether.

A meteorite is a "space rock" that has made it to the ground, and no Leonid has ever done that, since they are made of extremely fragile material. We know this because of lots of photographic data (The Leonids are the most photographed/studied meteor shower by a very long way).

The only documented meteorites come from asteroids, which are composed of much harder material than meteoroids that come from comets.

Oh well I will fling this into the mix,note how the nasa official states the magnetic propagation reconnection of both comet and solar cme interact.,kinda supports putermans electric universe principal,make of it what you will ? As I know one will !

Peace gringo

Originally posted by Unity_99
I've changed my mind alot on elenin. Its bigger. Their stats are wrong. Not sure we're going to be safe and no one going with the other stats can predict a thing. I've even read its Sept or Oct now, so its faster. Its probably already affecting our sun. And behind the Japan quake. There is talk of two, well I knew Honda was supposedly in Aug. So, the two witnesses?

In any case, this thing is wormwood. And its connected to the "other" thing as well. And to the return of the Quetzcoatl or eye of horus.

I've been meditating and sending light to these objects, and asking for them (what I would call darth vaders group) to all make U-Turns, because they're partly the reason we're here, retrievals.

My wife is a former psychiatric nurse. If one of her patients had have said something like that, their medication would have been upped. It's wonderful that the internet gives freedom of expression to all.

reply to post by Phage

Maybe if you could provide a single example of any other comet ever significantly changing its orbit your fears would carry some weight. Saying "it could happen" without an explanation of how doesn't really mean much.

Phage you know that I always appreciate your input so this is not knocking you. The fact is that however you look at this, whether through the eyes of cold hard science or through panic it is not possible to categorically state that the orbit will not change.

I have said this to ngchunter et al and I say the same to you. There are possibilities that Elenin could meet another celestial object. It does not have to be a big one, just enough to change the orbit slightly. It is also possible that meeting that object might destroy her. Before you leap in and say we have catalogued all the objects she may meet let me remind you of the many instances that asteroids are suddenly 'discovered' just days, or sometimes hours, before they pass by Earth. How many more are out there in orbits such that we have not discovered the? What are the chance of the orbit of one of these passing by or intersecting Elenin's orbit?

Slim I grant you, but we would not need WISE/NEOWISE and other programs to find PHA and NEOs if we knew everything.

Artorius is right, there is a slim chance that the orbit may change. You cannot deny that. Yes I agree, as I am sure Atrorius does, that it is unlikely, and Elenin will come in on time and under budget unlike most projects. But you just cannot know that this is 100% true unchangeable fact. It is not.

reply to post by gringoboy


Thanks for putting that up gringoboy. Not sure that I agree with the first part about what the comets is made of but then that argument has been addressed a few times on the thread already.

We will see when she passes by! I am hoping the NASA scientists will get a few surprises!

if there is 1 thing the maya's did predict or at least they are doing it recent video's is that we will have 3 days of absolute darkness , if u look into the diagram on JPL and u forward time untill the 24,25,26 of september that is where the "comet" travels between us and the sun , depending on the size of the object that could certainly lead to a full eclipse or "black hole sun ".

A small asteroid is not going to perturb the orbit of Comet Elenin to any meaningful extent, even if it passed very close.

reply to post by PuterMan


Theres a variety of influences that can affect Elnin (CME, Solar Wind, some type of gravitational pull, other asteroids/comets, etc, etc). It was discovered only 3 months ago... definitely NOT enough time to make guaranteed predictions. But of course NASA is "all knowing" to some people on this site For God's sakes people the size isn't even confirmed yet!!!

I have been monitoring the YouTube videos of claims to have (or tried to) film('d) anomalies such as, something near the sun and an unusual object which is seen in the (US S.E.) just before the sun rises. But everytime I go try and catch a glimpse, like this morning at 6am: So it's still dark, but sunlight on the horizon. Can still see a couple stars to my S.W. Then I see (a contrail or chemtrail?) then another one, then another one, then I see crisscrossing tik tak toe ones. At 8am I am back inside looking out my window, and the sky is a totally overcast gray.
I am straining to remember when was the last time I saw a totally clear sky. Anyone else been having trouble trying to see through all this sh*t for quite some time? It really chaps me. It -seems- like -someone(s)- don't want you to see very much. (?) (?) (?)......

reply to post by Mogget


I am so glad you are comfortable in your black and white world. Unfortunately life just is not like that. It can be grey at times and you do not know what size asteroid may meet up with/pass close by Elenin.

Science, and people such as yourself, like to deal in facts. Unfortunately there is no such thing as a fact, only a probability. You cannot categorically state that Elenin will not be affected by another celestial body during it's course towards Earth. Why is this so difficult for some people to understand?

If I said there will not be another 8.5/9/0 mag earthquake in Japan in the next 2 weeks would I be correct? No, because I cannot be certain. Is it likely? No not very, but there is a very small chance. If I said there MAY be another..... that is acceptable as that allows the remote possibility.

A small asteroid is not going to perturb the orbit of Comet Elenin to any meaningful extent, even if it passed very close.

That statement fails as it does not quantify the parameter small, the qualifier meaningful or the parameter close.

reply to post by Artorius


Leonid Elenin, the finder of the comet, has stated that he believes the comet to be around 4 to 5 km wide.

Obviously this is only an estimate at this stage. When she passes the Stereo satellite I have no doubt they will be able to measure her very accurately.

Edit to add: By the admission of one of the ATS contributors to this thread, an 'astronomomer', the orbit predictions of the JPL can be quite a long way out.

reply to post by simone50m

I am straining to remember when was the last time I saw a totally clear sky

Well around here it was when Eyjafjallajokull was doing it's thing!

One thing you can guarantee is that weather-wise if there is anything remotely interesting in the sky to be seen such as a comet or aurora etc, it will be cloudy here. When there is nothing to be seen it will be clear. I believe it is Sod's Fifth Law of Meteorological Obscurity.

By the way I would just say that You-Tube is not the best source of reliable data!

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by simone50m

 

I am straining to remember when was the last time I saw a totally clear sky

One thing you can guarantee is that weather-wise if there is anything remotely interesting in the sky to be seen such as a comet or aurora etc, it will be cloudy here. When there is nothing to be seen it will be clear. I believe it is Sod's Fifth Law of Meteorological Obscurity.

Yyyyyyup. But why can we "guarantee" that? Must be, it's a manmade Op, not natural. Looks like a Conspiracy to to me, mon!

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by ngchunter

 

No, Sorcha Faal (Sucha Fail) claims the Russians think it is being guided. That is a lie.

Oh dear, another cold hard scientist with no sense of humour! Yes of course it is a lie. You don't really think I thought that with all the smileys at the end do you???? :shk:

Actually I did. I've seen very radical people use that many smilies even when they seriously believe something like that, in fact, the over-use of smilies tends to accompany a willingness to believe such nonsense.

That does not mean she (I have decided Elenin is a she despite being a name for a Russian fella) cannot meet a nice handsome "dark body" sometime in the future, get married settle down and have kids! Lots of little bolides running around! Nothing is certain as I said. All your statement says is that so far she has not met a tall dark handsome asteroid. That does not mean she cannot. You can only determine that the orbital determination is correct historically, not in the future.

Please use proper terminology. If you use inexact terminology in presenting a claim then you end up receiving inexact answers. Describing a dark body "swining elenin around" onto a collision course makes it seem (at least to me) like you believe it will be gravitationally perturbed. Asteroids do not have enough mass to gravitationally perturb a comet traveling that fast onto a collision course from an orbit that originally was supposed to keep it almost a quarter of an AU away. A collision might, but it would necessarily be a very large collision. The odds of any given random unexpected collision imparting just the right delta-V in just the right direction to put the debris remains on a collision course are incredibly low. I invite you to load up Elenin's elements into this simulator (I can help you with that part if you need help figuring out how to convert the elements into the simulator's state vector format), put your spaceship at its current position and orbit, and try your best to hit earth with a single burn. Don't cheat, no corrections are allowed, just simulate a collision by burning your engines in a single direction (to simulate the resulting change in velocity due to the collision) of your choosing and then time accelerate to see how close you get to earth.
orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk...
Not only is a collision with an unknown body large enough to significantly change the comet's orbit extremely unlikely, but even if a collision were guaranteed the odds that it would put the comet on a collision course with earth are also extremely unlikely. It's an extreme unlikely circumstance compounded on top of a second extreme unlikely circumstance akin to an elephant falling out of the sky right now and hitting you on the head. Are you at all concerned about the elephant? Do you think you should take steps to prepare in case of an elephant fall?

Mm, do you have fun in your life?

Absolutely. I find astronomy and orbital mechanics to be a blast.

Originally posted by ngchunter

Asteroids do not have enough mass to gravitationally perturb a comet traveling that fast onto a collision course from an orbit that originally was supposed to keep it almost a quarter of an AU away

WOW You confirmed the mass of every single Asteroid in space??!!! Please tell us how you did this...i am very curious