Comet Elenin is coming!

reply to post by PuterMan


Hey PuterMan, you seem really knowledgeable about all of this. Maybe you can help me with a few of questions. I have heard many people dismiss Elenin, saying "We encounter comets all the time." While I know this is true, I do not know how often we encounter long period comets. Is it really common? Also, I know Earth has passed through the tail of a comet before, I have no idea how many times, but were any of those encounters with a long period comet? Oh yeah, and has a comet ever come this close during a solar maximum? Finally, I came across this article that talks about Encke's Comet tail being ripped off when it encountered a solar flare. None of the articles that covered the story mentioned what became of the tail. I see that at some point, Elenin will be between the sun and the Earth. Here's my silly question - in the event of a solar flare during that crucial period, could the tail shoot down to Earth? Yes, I know, unlikely, far-fetched, etc. But is it a possibility? I'm just curious. Thanks!

The Russians are concerned about the meteorite
source

then we have this article.

Originally posted by DutchBigBoy
The Russians are concerned about the meteorite
source

then we have this article.

THats nice and thanks for the info,.
But this is a thread for Elenin
Those talk about a completely different asteroid

Does anyone have a link to the daytime pics taken in newzealand a couple days ago of elenin or something next to the sun?...i have seen these pics once but now for the life of me i cannot find them.

nevermind, this damn box isn't working right

reply to post by thorfourwinds


Such a shame you were stared only two times. Your post was pretty epic! I now know everything about these two comets, thanks to you.

Did you read the article stating that one of Russia's minister said the comet seemed intelligently controlled...Weird...

Thanks, once again, for this epic thread!

Originally posted by thorfourwinds
I sent you a couple of what I consider great sites, but did not hear back, so here they are again.
ATTENTION ALL WHO READ THIS!
Check out these great applications - they're free!
Extreme Planet Makeover[/url]
This next app is the that one will keep you up a few nights. It boggles the mind that this is available for FREE!
(And I thought PhotoShop code was complex!) Have fun!
Hint: Simulate March 15, October 28, November 9, 2011 from various viewpoints/targets for a sense of how planets relate to each other. This is truly enlightening.
Start with Show me (the Sun) from (Voyager 2) to get a feel of what you can do. I love it!
NASA - JPL Solar System Simulator[/url]
No, it does not have 2005 YU55, Elenin, 136199 Eris, 2003 UB313 or Nibiru in the program, but that shouldn't stop NASA. They're still posting orbit diagrams for astroids that have already impacted - and,theoretically, not in space - which begs the question: WTF? Oh, that's right, NASA never admitted to these asteroids, or did they, in the first place?
In a larger sense, those graphic-rich programs released to the public do not seem to have enough relevant information on objects such as: 2000 PN9, 2009 BD, 2007 TD, 2009 TM8, 2011 BP40, 2000 YA, C/2004 Q2, 2011 CQ1, 2008 TC3, 2008 TS26, 2004 FU162, 2009 VA, 2010 TD54, 2002 MN, 2011 EY11, 2005 Y47, C2002 X5, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, Voyager and Pioneer. And now that you're warmed up, how about some TransNeptunian Objects to bring you you up to speed? 90377 Sedna, 2000 CR105, 2006 SQ372 and 2008 KV42.
The following sites have been shown to be of significant benefit when used as directed in a conscientiously-applied program of common sense and regular professional care.
Elenin Orbit Tracker[/url]
2005 YU55 Orbit Tracker[/url]
136199 Eris Orbit Tracker[/url]
2003 UB313 Orbit Tracker[/url]
Space Weather Now - NOAA
Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast[/url]
*************************

Central Arkansas Earthquake Monitors[/url]
Yellowstone Weather/Seismic Monitors[/url]
Alaska Earthquake Information Center[/url]
Alaska Volcano Observatory[/url]
Mount St. Helens Volcano Cam[/url]
GEOFON Global Seismic Monitor[/url]
Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 Days[/url]
Worldwide Earthquake and Seismic Monitors[/url]
**************************
U.S. Floods Monitor - NOAAWatch[/url]
**************************
U.S. Disaster Assistance & Resources[/url]
U.S. Emergency Response Topographic Information[/url]
**************************
My Favorite - Worldwide LIVE Satellite Weather "TV View!"
STORMPULSE / Hurricanes, Tornados, Severe Weather[/url]
**************************
Surviving the American Food Crisis of 2011[/url]
The Domino Effect of February 2011 - I Had a Dream About America's Future[/url]

edit on 8/3/2011 by thorfourwinds because: lynx!

Greetings:

I have no idea in the world why some of the links in my previous post did not work.

Whatever, these appear to work just fine.

Thank you for your time, consideration and patience.

May your 2011 see you embracing its highest potential.

In Peace & Light
tfw



Extreme Planet Makeover

JPL-NASA Solar System Simulator
************************************
Elenin Orbit Tracker

2005 YU55 Orbit Tracker

136199 Eris Orbit Tracker

2003 UB313 Orbit Tracker

Space Weather Now - NOAA

Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast
************************************
Worldwide Fire Mapper
************************************
Central Arkansas Earthquake Monitors

Recent Earthquakes for Yellowstone

California-Nevada Fault Maps

Alaska Earthquake Information Center

Mount St. Helens Volcano Cam

Global Seismic Monitor

Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 Days

Worldwide Earthquake and Seismic Monitors
************************************
U.S. Floods Monitor - NOAAWatch

STORMPULSE / Hurricanes, Severe Weather
************************************
U.S. Disaster Assistance & Resources

U.S. Emergency Response Topographic Information

Other articles that may be of interest.

SURVIVING THE AMERICAN FOOD CRISIS OF 2011

DOMINO EFFECT OF FEBRUARY 2011 - I Had a Dream About America's Future

Originally posted by thinkingthing
I have heard many people dismiss Elenin, saying "We encounter comets all the time." While I know this is true, I do not know how often we encounter long period comets. Is it really common?

Long period comets, by their very nature, spend most of their time in the outer solar system, so we don't see them as often as short-period comets..

The most common comets belong to a population called the short-period comets that have only mildly elliptical orbits that carry them out to a region lying from Jupiter to beyond the orbit of Neptune. A dozen or so of these comets pass through the inner Solar System each year, but they usually are only seen in telescopes.

Source: General Properties of
Comets

My own experience with meteor showers confirms this. Every time a comet comes close to Earth's orbit, it leaves a clue to it's presence at that location in the form of a meteor shower. Most meteor showers are due to short period comets it turns out.

Most meteor showers, like the Leonids, are caused by short-period comets that circle the Sun every few years or decades. These frequent visitors are easy to find and are routinely tracked by astronomers. Long period comets, on the other hand, spend most of their time in the dark recesses of space beyond Pluto; the vast majority remain undiscovered. With little warning one could swoop in from the outer solar system and pass uncomfortably close to our planet.

Source: NASA

Originally posted by thinkingthing
Also, I know Earth has passed through the tail of a comet before, I have no idea how many times, but were any of those encounters with a long period comet?

Yes - from the link above:

On March 1, 2003, around 2154 universal time (UT), our planet will encounter a stream of dusty comet debris "only 12,000 km from Earth. That's as close as the Leonid debris stream was in 1966," says Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Environments Team.

The source of the dust this time is Comet Bradfield (C/1976 D1)--a dim comet discovered in 1976 by Bill Bradfield of Australia. It swings through the inner solar system approximately every 1000 years.

"We've never observed a meteor outburst from Comet Bradfield before," says Cooke. That's no surprise: The comet's orbit is tilted so the shower is visible only from the far-reaches of our planet's southern hemisphere. The best viewing spots are near the coast of Antarctica ... "and onboard the International Space Station," adds Cooke.

Researchers are interested in this remote shower because of its source: a long-period comet.

More on the subject here (alternate link) and another paper here (alternate link)

Originally posted by thinkingthing
Finally, I came across this article that talks about Encke's Comet tail being ripped off when it encountered a solar flare. None of the articles that covered the story mentioned what became of the tail.

The comets tail is made of mostly gas, and fine dust. That would have been pushed away and dispersed away from the sun by solar radiation pressure (which I mentioned earlier on in this thread), leaving behind any larger meteoroids in more or less the original orbit.

Originally posted by thinkingthing
I see that at some point, Elenin will be between the sun and the Earth. Here's my silly question - in the event of a solar flare during that crucial period, could the tail shoot down to Earth?

Yes it could, and that is how we get our annual meteor showers, but it's unlikely we will see any meteors from Elenin.this year. Perhaps we might with future orbits though.

Originally posted by thinkingthing
Yes, I know, unlikely, far-fetched, etc. But is it a possibility? I'm just curious. Thanks!

Not far fetched at all - that is how we get our meteor showers in real life.

Solar Cycle 24 Begins

"On 1/04/2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.



The beginning of Solar cycle 24 until Hoshana Rabbah _1/04/2008 - 10/09/2009 = 644 days one 1 year, nine 9 months, five 5 days 305

continued at and
higlighted @ solarcycletwentyfour.blogspot.com... / its worth the look, Amazing Wow

i've been sent a few private messages, i can not respond until l i get twenty points

i tried to post the whole page here, but the way it is formatted, portions of it were deleted..

Baruch haMelech YESHUA

reply to post by thinkingthing


I guess C.H.U.D pretty much replied for me, although I am not sure I agree on the composition of the comet's tail, but we have been through that one and come out the other side!

reply to post by sojourner232


Um. Yes. Well that is a lot of pretty coloured numbers! I have no idea what that is all about.

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


Thanks for all of the info! So I take it we have never encountered a comet like this before? With an 38,000 year orbit, I mean? That's exciting. I went to check out some videos on the NASA Buzzroom site only to find that it has been shut down until some time "in the future." Another coincidence, I guess.

Originally posted by thinkingthing
So I take it we have never encountered a comet like this before? With an 38,000 year orbit, I mean?

Yes we have, although off hand I couldn't tell you how many times.

There are about 3,200 known long-period comets. Among the best-remembered is Hale-Bopp, which was easily visible to the naked eye for much of 1996 and 1997 and was one of the brightest comets of the 20th century.

Source: Long-period comets discovered in new places

Elenin's orbital elements were updated today at the JPL Small-Body Database:

Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 20:20, +/- 26 minutes
Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,827,592.2 km
Closest approach to the Sun: 2011-Sep-10 17:28, +/- 18 minutes

For reference, here are the previous values:

As of March 3rd:
Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 21:08, +/- 39 minutes
Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,699,527.9 km
Closest approach to the Sun: 2011-Sep-10 17:55, +/- 26 minutes

As of February 23rd:
Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 21:39, +/- 1 hour and 7 minutes
Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,833,620 km

reply to post by nataylor
So am I seeing that right?
It was at a further distance
then it was closer
and now it is further away again?
What the heck

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
reply to post by nataylor

 

So am I seeing that right?
It was at a further distance
then it was closer
and now it is further away again?
What the heck

That is the projected distance from Earth when the comet will be at its closest on September 10th. Yes, as the orbit is refined from additional observations, the minimum distance changes. With every update the numbers become more accurate.

Originally posted by nataylor

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
reply to post by nataylor

 

So am I seeing that right?
It was at a further distance
then it was closer
and now it is further away again?
What the heck

That is the projected distance from Earth when the comet will be at its closest on September 10th. Yes, as the orbit is refined from additional observations, the minimum distance changes. With every update the numbers become more accurate.

Hmmm,.
seems like a wobbly comet,.
Silly me,.., and I thought they had a true path..

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
Hmmm,.
seems like a wobbly comet,.
Silly me,.., and I thought they had a true path..

Again, to be clear, it's not "wobbling." As they make more observations over time, they are able to pin down the future path of the orbit better. That's all you're seeing, a refinement in the calculated future position of the comet. The more observations they make, the more accurate the projections and the smaller the calculated error (as you can see, the error for the time of closest approach keeps getting smaller over time).

reply to post by nataylor
OOps,. sorry,.
didnt mean to have fun here,.
(sits up strait,. eyes forward)
I wont do that again,. sorry

Yes ,... I get it,. but thanks for the clarification

Reality check from NASA astrobiology.nasa.gov...

Yes, yes, yes, I know what the lot of you are gonna say.