Comet Elenin is coming!

reply to post by ngchunter

No, Sorcha Faal (Sucha Fail) claims the Russians think it is being guided. That is a lie.

Oh dear, another cold hard scientist with no sense of humour! Yes of course it is a lie. You don't really think I thought that with all the smileys at the end do you???? :shk:

If the "boffins" did not see "that dark body that swings Elenin into a direct path to impact on Earth," or if it were a "guided" object, then the orbital determination would not work at fitting the observed position of the comet over the past three months of time.

That does not mean she (I have decided Elenin is a she despite being a name for a Russian fella) cannot meet a nice handsome "dark body" sometime in the future, get married settle down and have kids! Lots of little bolides running around! Nothing is certain as I said. All your statement says is that so far she has not met a tall dark handsome asteroid. That does not mean she cannot. You can only determine that the orbital determination is correct historically, not in the future.

What we see is that the orbital elements do fit the observed position of the comet to within half an arcsecond, which, due to the atmosphere, is the limit of angular resolution one can achieve in deep space images without adaptive optics (most or all of the telescopes used to find and track asteroids and comets have no adaptive optics nor do they need it).

Mm, do you have fun in your life? Lighten up. This is my doom thread OK? I am the cold hard scientist debunker most of the time, but not here. Here anything goes and whilst we sort of eschew doom, sometimes a bit of doom does one good!

reply to post by nataylor

It seems very silly to put equal weight on all possible outcomes, regardless of their likelihood.

:shk: Who said anything about equal weight? You are correct, you cannot guarantee the sun will come up tomorrow. Yes it is likely, very likely and you would probably win a bet on it, but it is NOT a 100% certainty.

I thought you guys were the science types?

there is always that slim chance

Does that sound like equal weight? Nope!

Updated stats. Unfortunately the last figures I cannot get as the orbital diagram is not working at present. I will update that bit later.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/25d3016bacae.png[/atsimg]

I was listening to R.E.M
and whatduya know
In the song "Its the end of the world"
the name Leonid is mentioned,.
Hmmm
And what does it have for a first line?
"thats great, it starts with an earthquake"

Hmmm, interesting, within bible prophesy stuff has a record of happening in the month of October tie that into the predicted celestial phenomena that is suppose to accompany the end of the last days.
Wouldn't it be interesting if 2011 was the years instead of 2012.

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


That's Leonid Brezhnev they are referring to in the song. The former Communist in charge of the former Soviet Union who laid the ground work for the later years of the Cold War up into the early eighties.

thanks,.
Oh how I hate facts

Just thought I'd add someone passed along to me a few minutes ago (just ignore the last part where he's trying to sell you silver). I hadn't heard of the multiple alignments before with the previous quakes:


Another thing had sent to me by someone who's very Catholic:

The following was excerpted from the translation of a copy of a personal letter written by St. Padre Pio (died 1968, canonized 2002) addressed to the Commission of Heroldsbach appointed by the Vatican which testifies to the truth and reality of these revelations given by Our Lord to Padre Pio, a Capuchin priest who bore the stigmata.
In the following visions of Jesus experienced by Padre Pio are warnings which seem to be referring to the Three Days of Darkness.
At the end of the third day of the Battle of Armageddon, when all invading nations are within a rock's throw of the Israeli border, Our Lord Jesus Christ makes His move. A comet crashes onto the earth – a direct hit destroying half of Africa – bounces off Africa and destroys New York City – killing millions of people (one-third of the earth's population) and causing three days of darkness throughout the world (no means of light and electricity will be possible other than blessed candles).
NEW YEAR'S EVE 1949: Jesus to Padre Pio
"My son, My son, I have been longing for this hour in which I again shall reveal to you the great love of My heart . . . Pray and make reparation to Me. Admonish others to do the same because the time is near at hand in which I shall visit My unfaithful people because they have not heeded the time of My grace. Persevere in prayer, so that your adversary shall have no dominion over you. Tell My people to be prepared at all times, for My judgment shall come upon them suddenly and when least expected – and not one shall escape My hands, I shall find them all! I shall protect the just. Watch the sun and moon and the stars of the Heavens. When they appear to be unduly disturbed and restless, know that the day is not far away. Stay united in prayer and watching until the angel of destruction has passed your doors. Pray that these days will be shortened."

January 23, 1950: Jesus to Padre Pio
"Pray! Make reparation! Be fervent and practice mortifications. Great things are at stake! Pray! Men are running toward the abyss of Hell in great rejoicing and merry-making, as though they were going to a masquerade ball or the wedding feast of the devil himself! Assist Me in the salvation of souls. The measure of sin is filled! The day of revenge, with its terrifying happenings is near – nearer then you can imagine! And the world is seeping in false security! The Divine Judgment shall strike them like a thunderbolt! These Godless and wicked people shall be destroyed without mercy, as were the inhabitants of Sodom and Gomorra of old. Yes, I tell you their wickedness was not as great as that of our human race today!"

January 28, 1950: Jesus to Padre Pio
"Keep your windows well-covered. Do not look out. Light a blessed candle, which will suffice for many days. Pray the Rosary. Read spiritual books. Make acts of Spiritual Communion, also acts of love, which are so pleasing to Us. Pray with outstretched arms, or prostrate on the ground, in order that many souls may be saved. Do not go outside the house. Provide yourself with sufficient food. The powers of nature shall be moved and a rain of fire shall make people tremble with fear. Have courage! I am in the midst of you."

February 7, 1950: Jesus to Padre Pio
"Take care of the animals during these days. I am the creator and preserver of animals as well as man. I shall give you a few signs beforehand, at which time you should place more food before them. I will preserve the property of the elect, including the animals, for they shall be in need of sustenance afterwards as well. Let no one go across the yard, even to feed the animals – he who steps outside will perish! Cover your windows carefully. My elect shall not see My wrath. Have confidence in Me, and I will be your protection. Your confidence obliges Me to come to your aid."

The rest of that text is here: www.heaven-speaks.com...

A comet, a star, Jesus....whatever it is, it must be SOMETHIN'!

reply to post by nataylor

Originally posted by nataylor

Originally posted by Artorius
Still after several months of observation anything can happen.

No, not anything. Right now, Elenin's orbit is based on 612 individual observations made over a 90-day period. Elenin's pass through the inner solar system is nailed down quite well now, to a good degree of accuracy. Elenin will pass within 34,945,986.1 km of Earth, plus or minus 118,422.9 km (or 0.3%).

That doesn't rule out the possibility of it being influenced by anything in space. The distance you claim is an ESTIMATE it hasn't happened yet so there is no physical proof to what you say. Predictions based on what we know are not written in stone. So NO its not nailed yet...NASA can only make an educated guess only time will tell the truth.

reply to post by ngchunter

Originally posted by nataylor

Originally posted by PuterMan
Ah another cold hard scientist!

Nothing in this Universe is nailed down. Whilst I agree that things may be pretty definite there is always that slim chance that the boffins did not see that dark body that swings Elenin into a direct path to impact on Earth. Nothing is certain and the science is never settled.

After all the Russians think it is being guided

There is possible, and then there is likely. The sun will rise tomorrow. Is it *possible* that it won't? Sure, I guess the sun could blow up, or the Earth could disappear. Is it *likely* the sun won't rise? No, not at all. Is it *likely* that Elenin's orbit will change drastically from the current calculations? No.

It seems very silly to put equal weight on all possible outcomes, regardless of their likelihood.

Your comparing the probability of our sun going supernova to something affecting the trajectory of a comet???Are you serious???....we've been observing the sun for hundreds of years. Elenin has been observed for 3-4 months you honestly think thats enough time to know WITHOUT A DOUBT THE EXACT trajectory?? come on man stop being so stubborn...

reply to post by kalamatas


Thank you so much for putting up that video. Best laugh I have had for ages, especially when he said he would kick himself if he called it a comet one more time instead of brown dwarf star.

Originally posted by Artorius
Your comparing the probability of our sun going supernova to something affecting the trajectory of a comet???Are you serious???....we've been observing the sun for hundreds of years. Elenin has been observed for 3-4 months

you honestly think thats enough time to know WITHOUT A DOUBT THE EXACT trajectory?? come on man stop being so stubborn...

edit on 17-3-2011 by Artorius because: (no reason given)

It's enough to know the trajectory to within 0.3% when it's closest to Earth.

reply to post by nataylor


Again your wrong....the trajectory can change tomorrow why? Because we do not control it, thats the bottom line

Originally posted by nataylor
Elenin's orbital elements were updated again at the JPL Small-Body Database:

Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 19:52, +/- 19 minutes
Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,898,790.4 km
Closest approach to the Sun: 2011-Sep-10 17:11, +/- 13 minutes

For reference, here are the previous updates:

As of March 10th: Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 20:20, +/- 26 minutes Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,827,592.2 km Closest approach to the Sun: 2011-Sep-10 17:28, +/- 18 minutes As of March 3rd: Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 21:08, +/- 39 minutes Minimum distance at closest approach to Earth: 34,699,527.9 km Closest approach to the Sun: 2011-Sep-10 17:55, +/- 26 minutes As of February 23rd: Closest approach to Earth: 2011-Oct-16 21:39, +/- 1 hour and 7 minutes]

You post the day by day changing trajectory but deny the trajectory of yesterday

Your contradicting yourself dude...

edit on 17-3-2011 by Artorius because: (no reason given)

Originally posted by Artorius
reply to post by nataylor

 

Again your wrong....the trajectory can change tomorrow why? Because we do not control it, thats the bottom line

It is not likely to change any significant amount. We have a good fit to the existing observations now. Any changes will just be a refinement within the existing error ranges. The people fitting these orbits are good enough at what they do so that we can launch flyby probes of comets years ahead of time and intercept the comets right were we want.

I'll guarantee that it will not get any closer than 34,780,000 km to Earth at its closest approach on October 16th.

reply to post by Artorius

Well, if we (or someone) did control it the orbit might change but since the orbit is controlled by the Sun it isn't going to change.

It might wiggle around a bit as it gets closer to the Sun when jets of gas start escaping but there isn't much to cause a significant change in it's orbit.

reply to post by Phage


My point is the trajectory can change by other influences from space. Your making an educated guess based on NASA's data and previous data on comets. While all of that is relevant it still does not rule out my point. Please don't talk like you have a crystal ball.

leonids are a group of meteorites and elenin is not a russian surname...."ele" = eleven and "nin"=nine...just sayin....

I've changed my mind alot on elenin. Its bigger. Their stats are wrong. Not sure we're going to be safe and no one going with the other stats can predict a thing. I've even read its Sept or Oct now, so its faster. Its probably already affecting our sun. And behind the Japan quake. There is talk of two, well I knew Honda was supposedly in Aug. So, the two witnesses?

In any case, this thing is wormwood. And its connected to the "other" thing as well. And to the return of the Quetzcoatl or eye of horus.

I've been meditating and sending light to these objects, and asking for them (what I would call darth vaders group) to all make U-Turns, because they're partly the reason we're here, retrievals.

I've changed my mind alot on elenin. Its bigger. Their stats are wrong. Not sure we're going to be safe and no one going with the other stats can predict a thing. I've even read its Sept or Oct now, so its faster. Its probably already affecting our sun. And behind the Japan quake. There is talk of two, well I knew Honda was supposedly in Aug. So, the two witnesses?

In any case, this thing is wormwood. And its connected to the "other" thing as well. And to the return of the Quetzcoatl or eye of horus.

I've been meditating and sending light to these objects, and asking for them (what I would call darth vaders group) to all make U-Turns, because they're partly the reason we're here, retrievals.

reply to post by Artorius

Maybe if you could provide a single example of any other comet ever significantly changing its orbit your fears would carry some weight. Saying "it could happen" without an explanation of how doesn't really mean much.

reply to post by Phage


I'm not going to go through data on every single comet that ever passed earth trying to find a change in their trajectory. Even if it never happened before that doesn't mean it wont happen with Elnin, there is still a possibility no matter how slim. Space along with the sun can be unpredictable at times. Thats my point...