Quake Watch 2011

USGS says there is a possibility of heavy damage, casualties following Kyrgyzstan quake. No reports from area yet.

I suspect injuries and destruction. It's near settlements. And remember this is a mid-continental quake. Which are different that those along boundries.

There were several in central asia following the big quake in Japan in March. When I invesigated them at that time, I found lots of green cities in the middle of a desert. They are green because they are tapping aquifers and extracting the water for irrigating their crops.

Of course, there are mountains, and lots of faults around there. Just saying.

And I mustn't forget the big reservoir to the west.

Also, from Reuter's report, the valley also has oil and gas production.

ca.reuters.com...

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by sdebunker

 

Anyway, not to suggest to hit a panic mode or predict anything "worse" is going to happen, I just wanted to throw a little something out there, for nothing more, a "just in case" scenario. Looking into March of this year prior to the 9.0.

From your Wikipedia list as referenced:

March

1)Easter Island magnitude 6.0 March 1.

2) Tarapacá magnitude 6.2 March 6.

3) South Sandwich Islands magnitude 6.5 March 6.

4)Solomon Islands 6.6 March 7.

5) magnitude 7.3 East Coast of Honshu March 9.

6)Papua New Guinea magnitude 6.5 March 9.

7) Myanmar-China magnitude 5.4 March 10.

8) Bali Sea 6.5 March 10.

Honshu magnitude 9.0 earthquake on March 11

I am having a little difficulty understanding what you are describing here.

1) Couldnt find one unless you wanted to count Mexico, Columbia, and Argentina all had one recently. (All on 7/9)

Columbia 4.3, Argentina 4.7, Mexico 4.9

I can't quite equate these to Easter Island, neither are any of them on the 1st, or of a similar magnitude?

2) Same as number 1

Are you saying Tarapaca Mag 6.2 in March equates to ?? at Easter Island on 1st July? I can't find one there on that date, nor on the 6th July BUT there was a 7.6 the other side - Kermedecs and several more in that area.

3) The general area of the Ascension Island Region? (7/9)

2 x mag 4.7 about 3,500 miles away?

4) Kermadec Island area? (7/6)

OK, a day out but yes.

5) Honshu Japan (7/10)

OK, a day out but yes.

6) Papua, Indonesia (7/10)

A 4.7 a day different?

7) Myanmar (7/10)

A 4.9 ~ 5.4, yes close enough.

8) Java and Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia, Banda Sea (7/9)

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2011-07-10 00:38:12, -2.879, 136.736, 4.7, 47.4, Nr. N. Coast Of Papua. Ind.
2011-07-09 19:02:55, -7.428, 128.607, 5.0, 150.8, Kepulauan Barat Daya. Ind.
2011-07-09 13:57:22, -7.374, 128.814, 4.9, 146.5, Kepulauan Barat Daya. Ind.
2011-07-09 13:26:59, -8.974, 108.428, 4.8, 36.8, Java. Ind.
2011-07-09 05:51:38, -4.111, 129.435, 5.5, 19.6, Banda Sea
2011-07-09 01:36:33, 3.911, 126.704, 4.6, 83.8, Kepulauan Talaud. Ind.

The largest at 5.5 is getting closer to the 6.5 cited, but the rest? Just too small I think.

Charting JUST the Mag 6+ so that the comparison is as the March list I get this.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/49e589b35160.png[/atsimg]

I have to say that personally I can't see a similarity any more than you would get from any time comparison with these areas considering they are all active, but maybe I just don't get the bigger picture.

The point I was trying to make, that you took too literal was that I was pointing out 8 previous events in same, general, or antipodal positions prior to the 9.0 in Japan. You gave an ok to 5 of the 8. I didnt say they had to be same magnitude, but a connection. I am not saying Japan is going to have another 9.0, I am just pointing out points that happened prior to when it did, listed above. The, what sounds like a pretty devestating quake, in Kyrgyzstan today the antipodal point of there comes out to well off the coast of Chile in the general area of Easter Island. So does that make it 6 out of 8 now? I wasnt saying it even had to be on the same day, I was just pointing out it was events prior. Also, we had close together quakes at the Acension Islands, Chile, and Argentina, plus the strange bouy signal that was showing a trigger alarm for no apparent reason in the Mid Atlantic a few days ago. Were these signals of something building on the opposite side or just a random happening?

If antipodal points are something to watch, then Wyoming comes out to just north of the French Island of Lie Kerguelen. So, is it Yellowstone, or a volcano about to do something in that antartic island? Guess time will tell, but I am sure you are open minded enough to feel that no theory is too far out, until proven wrong. Everything is connected, we just dont how it all is, just yet.

earthquake-report.com...

The above site is saying the shaking lasted a long time....30 seconds to a minute. Not good....Hoping everyone is safe and now....you have to wonder.....what is next.

Time will tell.

Peace and love to all of you!!!! xoxoxox

Jenn

Check out this link about a crack opening up in Mexico. It's huge...www.youtube.com...

Now in the Mid-Atlantic ridge

July 20 2011, 02:46:14 UTC 21 minutes ago northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 4.7 10.5 Detail

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

Found this story and thought you earthquake aficionados might enjoy it.

A Chilean Teen Tweets About Earthquakes Better Than His Whole Government

Sebastian Alegria, a 14-year-old Chilean high school student, decided to hack together a twitter alert system that's already a year ahead of the Chilean government's own planned project.

Alegria's rudimentary yet effective system comes from having survived Chile's own earthquakes last year and seeing the devastation that covered Japan earlier this year.

Keen on finding an inexpensive solution for early earthquake detection, he rigged an Arduino and domestic earthquake detector to tweet seconds before detectable seismic activity. Tweeting from @AlarmaSismos, it has already successfully detected every major earthquake that could be felt from Santiago since May. And it's piling on the Twitter followers.

gizmodo.com...

reply to post by Maluhia


SMART KID!!! A 14 year old figured out a warning system, not the government

reply to post by Maluhia


Brilliant! Just goes to show. The piece of kit he hooked up looks interesting if you are a bit geeky that is. And this. Here is some info about the domestic quake detector.

In the meantime....

PDF Package for Magnitude 6.1 Kyrgyzstan. Event ID usc00050ll now available.
(2.7 Mb download)

usc00050ll.zip

Due to image storage space considerations on the blog the PDF file (Web Page) will only have the basic shake map. The other shake maps will be included in the web site images package however as this area is not having space constraints (yet!)

Web site images only (7zipped) 1.3 Mb
usc00050ll_images.zip

View web version of page here

Just clicked to follow him. His tweets look intersting. But, I can read the tweets but what is the number? (20:26:38) or (5:53:33), anyone know please?
Thanks

There were causualties. That's the big difference between mid-continental quakes, and those found around the ring of fire. Some of the cause is a lack of preparedness. Those on the ring of fire expect them. So, building codes are a major factor. But there's also a difference in the quakes themselves. Depending on the soils within the crust, even a relatively small quake can have devestating effects.

www.google.com...

So, if a 6.1M can cause major damage and death in central asia.

What's a 7M gonna do in the central USA?

Russellville.
Clean. Modern. Safe????????????????????????????????????????????
Just down the road from some heavy duty faults.

And the rocking continues....

Wednesday July 20 2011, 15:51:30 UTC 16 minutes ago south of Panama 5.4 17.6 Detail

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

reply to post by Robin Marks


Related news from the area.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1911_Sarez_earthquake

Water level in Lake Sarez reportedly drops two meters

19/07/2011 15:02
Avaz Yuldoshev

news.tj/en/news/water-level-lake-sarez-reportedly-drops-two-meters

(...)

The lake formed in 1911, after a great earthquake, when the Murgab River was blocked by a big landslide. The earthquake was reportedly estimated at 6.5-7.0 on Richter scale. The landslide was 2.2 million cubic meters and formed the Usoy Dam, which is 3km long and 550m high, the tallest natural dam in the world. The lake reached its current level in 1920.

In 2000, the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project (LSRMP) was launched. The project aiming at reducing the risk related to the natural structure by implementing a monitoring and an early warning system, by training the population leaving downstream and developing long term solutions, is a partnership between the Government and the people of Tajikistan, the World Bank and the donor community represented by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The main Tajik counterpart for the project is the Committee for Emergency Situations (CES).

A 2004 study by the World Bank held that the dam was stable. The principal danger seems to be a partially detached mass of rock of about 3 cubic kilometers that could break loose and fall into the lake. Since the valley below the dam is so narrow, any flood would be very destructive.

I have a question I am a bit curious about, hoping one of you can maybe shed some light on. When looking at the Seismic Server readings, I noticed a few days ago that the movement of the readings was mostly upward, today I see the readings are downward, does that mean anything?? Sorry for the dumb question, but I couldn't seem to find what I was looking for in a search to find an explanation.

Here is what I am seeing today. aslwww.cr.usgs.gov...

Just wondering if it indicates anything or not.

reply to post by jjjtir

Thats interesting about the landslide, gives me some more detail to add to what I already had for the quake

I got my data from NOAA, its was bigger than what Wikipedia says, perhaps I should log in and set the record straight.
I haven't updated 1911 to include the Centennial Data yet but they had 7.8Mw for this quake

Date/Time: 1911/1/3 23:25:45
Lat: 43.5 Long: 77.5
Region: Esik, Kazakhstan
Mw: 7.7 Ms: 8.7
Mb: n/a ML: n/a
Me: n/a Unk: n/a
Depth: 25 km
Deaths: 450 , Injuries: n/a
Tsunami: n/a
Source: noaa
More than 450 killed. Damage occurred in the Chong-Kemin (Bol'shoy Kemin) Valley as well as at Anan'yevo (Sazanovka) and Oytal (Urtal), Kyrgyzstan. Over 770 brick buildings were destroyed at Almaty (Vernyy, Alma-Ata), Kazakhstan. Faulting, fractures and large landslides were observed over an area 200 km (125 mi) long in the Chong-Kemin and Chilik Valleys and along the shore of Lake Issyk-Kul'. Hanging objects swung in cities more than 1,000 km (625 mi) away in Kazakhstan and Russia

Re the water level drop x 2 metres.
Makes you wonder about "rebound"
With the lake having an estimated 16,074 cubic kilometres volume, take away 0.002km x 558km x 33km = 36km3.
Is only 0.22% of the total volume, but can you imagine how much 36km3 of water weighs
en.wikipedia.org...


Hmmm theres a project for someone, NZ has many hydro lakes (man made lakes behind power station dams) in the South Island, and in some dry years the levels drop quite dramatically from Full to 30% or less even, I wonder if quake activity increased when the lakes were low

reply to post by summer5

What is showing right now on those graphs is the KYRGYZSTAN 6.1 (at the top) and SOUTH OF PANAMA 5.4 (at the bottom)
There are no other earthquakes above Mag 5 during that period to show.
As I said yesterday, LISS only pick up larger GLOBAL quakes.
Are you looking at the graphs and comparing the TIMES with the USGS list? earthquake.usgs.gov...

When you have that LISS page figured out you can tackle the GLOBAL LISS page

see how Equador graph shows the SOUTH OF PANAMA quake as bigger than some of the other graphs, because it is closer to the epi centre aslwww.cr.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Maluhia

A Chilean Teen Tweets About Earthquakes Better Than His Whole Government

Since I dont use twitter, maybe somebody could tell me how useful such an "alert" system is.
Wouldnt you have to be online and constantly checking twitter (which might be delayed a few seconds anyway) to get any such "warning"?

Wouldnt it be better to just go and buy one of those domestic detectors mentioned in the article if you really wanted a proper warning?

reply to post by muzzy


I got your reply Muzzy - THANK YOU...going to read, and re-read and check out your links...let me see if my brain can wrap around what you are so kindly and patiently trying to tell me

Originally posted by crappiekat
reply to post by Bluesma

 

I emailed David Jay Brown. He has done some research in this area. I asked him if he had heard of any recent unusual animal behavior in the area. His website says he tries to answer all inquires. Well see.
Jeez before I could post Berekelygal posted!!
Be calm Berekelygal. Keep your head. Stay safe!

edit on 16-7-2011 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)

edit on 16-7-2011 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)

I received a reply back from Pam Smart. Quote"No increase in normal flow of stories"

I have been checking out the different stories out there about animal behavior before large earthquakes. I find this subject very interesting. I have heard of Pam Smart but I don't know that much about her.

I thought it was interesting that David Jay Brown did not repond.His website does mention that he gets alot of inquires.

Well anyway. I hope for all living in the area that there is nothing to this swarm thing. Everyone stay safe and alert.

I've had a request from a Professor at a University in India to publish my data I used to create the maps and lists on the 7+ Project in table format.
I'm not sure whether or not to do this;
He may steal my comprehensive research work and take credit for it
If he is that clever he should be able to take the Yearly Lists and using Excel create his own tables.
Still, if he's legit, to have a Professor of Geology to ask is cool