Volcano watch 2011

reply to post by angelchemuel


Chasing down the volcano deaths a bit more I came across the inevitable Wikipedia entry

Just for a moment leave Laki out of this. I mentioned it above.

I definitely think that generally the number of deaths from volcanoes are fewer, much for the reasons that I stated. It kind of makes sense to me that people are more wary of what they can see. The trump in the volcano worlds pack is definitely Laki. The figure normally quoted for Laki is 2,000,000 estimated for Europe, but Wikipedia seems to have other ideas.

Unknown precisely: perhaps 6 million,[1] including a million in Japan,[2] a similar number in France,[2] many in the rest of northern Europe and in Egypt. Killed 9,350 people in Iceland, about 25% of the island's population.

Reading the footnotes I conclude that around 1 million died in Japan as the result of either Laki or Asama but both are volcanoes of course. I have not found any corroborating evidence for this. What I have found for Japan is an account that indicates the famine in Japan was NOT in fact attributed to any volcanic action.

After two years of drought, Edo suffered a major fire in 1772 that was followed by a year of floods. The next year an epidemic took about 200,000 lives and spread north to Sendai, where 300,000 died of starvation and disease. Conspiracies to give the imperial court at Kyoto more power were punished in 1766 and 1774, and Matsudaira Sadanobu exposed peculation there in 1778. Floods affected Kyoto and Kyushu that year and were followed by the eruption of two volcanoes. In 1781 merchants set quality standards for silk and cotton, issuing certificates in the market towns of Musashi and Kotsuke and charging examination fees. However, buyers refused to pay the higher prices, and three thousand peasants attacked the examination stations and marched to the castle of Takasaki. The examination stations were abolished. The great Temmei famine began in 1782 and spread to most provinces, lasting until 1787.

Japan 1615-1800

I see little or no evidence in the footnotes for the figure in France. In the Midlands in England there were 23,000 more deaths than normal, but it does not state what area this covered, however I see no sensible extrapolation to 5 million covering the European area. In 1841 the population of England was about 15,000,000. By 1900 it was 38,000,000. It would be reasonable to say that in 1783 the population was certainly no more than 10,000,000 and probably less than that - I would guess around 8,000,000 - I just found a figure 9,000,000

It is my belief that there would have been very much more made of the event if 1 in 9 of the population had died unexpectedly. Can you imagine 9,000,000 people dying now and it not being recorded in any great detail even without the internet? You can read snippets of Gouldburn 1784 (Ireland) and find no reference to problems caused by ash. Starvation yes, but also t and we know why that was. There never was a famine in Ireland other than the making of the Saxons.

My point is that other than Wikipedia I can find no information about his event that would have been world shattering for Northern Europe and I am tempted to cry hoax on much of it.

Some of the reasoning is that Laki is on the doorstep of Europe, yet in 1815 Tambora blew producing an estimated 160 cubic kilometres of ash against 14 for Laki which i agree did last longer. If you look up Laki in Wikipedia you will find:

Inhaling sulfur dioxide gas causes victims to choke as their internal soft tissue swells - sulfur dioxide reacts with the moisture in lungs and produces sulfurous acid. [11] The local death rate in Chartres was up by 5% during August and September, with over 40 dead. In Great Britain, the records show that the additional deaths were outdoor workers; the death rate in Bedfordshire, Lincolnshire and the east coast was perhaps two or three times the normal rate. It has been estimated that 23,000 British people died from the poisoning.

That is a somewhat different figure from the other area if Wiki just proving how unreliable it is.

It is not reasonable in my opinion to suggest 6m deaths as that is completely out of kilter with the population figures of the time. I might go along with a total of 2 million tops for Northern Europe including France and Egypt but my own feeling is that it actually much less.

At the end of the day this was one single incident, unrepeated so far, and it is still reasonable to state that in virtually all cases the number of deaths from earthquakes outweighs those from volcanoes.

Out of space now so I will stop!

In My Humble Opinion:

It would be very difficult even today to accurately account for deaths due to earthquakes and much less so to those caused by Volcanos. There are three phases in each but with EQ it is very short, thus the question will be which levels of death do one count.

Earthquake you have a large number deaths directly because of the quake - buildings collapse, rock slides, tsunami, etc. Following that original event, there are deaths due to displacement and exposure to environment like cold weather, rain, snow, etc. This might stretch into months. Lastly you have - in major quakes at major centres - the long term deaths due to disease, water pollution and malnutrition.

On the other hand with Volcanic eruptions you have those deaths directly as result of the eruption i.e. Pompei, Merapi, etc. Relatively these are low compared to EQ for the very valid reasons Putterman points out. Then there are the short term outfalls usually still linked to the volcano; gas poisoning, famine due to crop failures, etc. This might stretch to distance even out of sight from the volcano. Until now I think if we compare EQ and volcano - then EQ's lead the pack as human killer.

But larger volcanic eruption has the tendency to affect the whole world. There are Meteorological changes which will plague people for months or even a years afterwards. This past few months we have seen tremendous changes in weather patterns all over the world - in particular very severe flooding around Equator regions. I will dare to state much of these are due to large volumes of volcanic ash in high atmosphere and in particular the high volume of Sulphur that was blown by Chile and Nabro volcano's. These can stay in 'orbit' for a year or more and the Sulphur does have a immediate effect on cloud forming.

The first result is high rainfall - floods.
The second result is cold temperature and low sunshine - crop failures, famine and even reduction in marine life.

Another less obvious result due to ashy and cloudy sky is the reduction in solar radiation most important: Ultra Violet. UV light (radiation) has the benefit to humans that it kills most bacteria and viruses. If we look back in history to the major disease outbreaks there is somewhat of a strange coincidence; usually there were in periods following major volcanic eruptions. By those eruptions I mean those of volcano's that placed large amounts of ash and sulphur in the sky. Off the thumb I would say about 1/3 of big eruptions.

The end result: If we do count the long term deaths due to meteorological changes; then Volcano's will win the race by far.

Sorry for such a long post again!

To sum up:
EQ's has relative short violent effect of few minutes, maybe a few sessions with after shocks.
After a few months things usually settles down and people go on with living.
EQ affects local area only; unless there are major Tsunami!

Volcano's is long life - often months and sometimes years; all that time it is blowing ash and other poinsonous gases like Sulphur Dioxide into the sky. Wind picks it up and can even take it all around the world. Volcano's affects large geographic areas; even as much as a ribbon all around the world; in some historical cases - the Whole World.
After such major eruption settles down, the after effects can last for many years.

Starvation yes, but also t and we know why that was

A chunk of that sentence vanished!!

It should read "Starvation yes, but also there were reports of plenty and we know why that was."

Bariloche, Southern Chile on red alert after volcano eruption

Another one for Chile.

Hotspot of jan-mayen speaks again.....

Magnitude
mb 5.0
Region

JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
Date time

2011-10-25 02:32:20.0 UTC

Depth

5 km

Not sure where to put this one so move if needed.
Interesting artical, Spectacular underwater volcano eruption shows geologists a land forgotten by time.
Link

Rainier still grumbling:

A micro earthquake occurred at 3:26:21 AM (PDT) on Tuesday, October 25, 2011. The magnitude 1.9 event occurred 24 km (15 miles) ENE of Ashford, WA. The hypocentral depth is 1 km (0.4 miles).

pnsn

Volcano Activity Chile Aisén Region, [Mount Hudson Volcano]

www.ncrumors.com...

SANTIAGO (BNO NEWS) -- The Chilean government on late Wednesday afternoon declared a Red Alert for the country's Aysén region after a significant increase in seismic activity at Mount Hudson, forcing nearly 100 people to evacuate.

another volcano put on red alert in chile am currently gathering more infor on this new volcano.... and will make a new thread if needed .

Mount hudsen in chile about to erupt. 100s of peple taken to safety ... from channel 6 news ..

SANTIAGO (BNO NEWS) -- The Chilean government on late Wednesday afternoon declared a Red Alert for the country's Aysén region after a significant increase in seismic activity at Mount Hudson, forcing nearly 100 people to evacuate.

and the link
channel6newsonline.com...

this is breaking news i believe and ill check for updated news stories thought out the next few days
another news link provided by mr awesome in my life ...

www.iol.co.za...

Santiago - Chile said on Wednesday that it was evacuating residents from around a volcano in the country's far south after it spewed a jet of steam a kilometre into the air and seismic activity triggered an avalanche.

from the Wikipedia .....

en.wikipedia.org...

in the past 40 years she has erupted twice and its been 20 years even since she last erupted ........

still think its too soon to make a thread just for Mt hudson ....

1991 eruption Sulfur dioxide emissions by volcanoes. The eruption in August to October 1991 was a large plinian eruption with a VEI of 5, that ejected 4.3 km3 bulk volume (2.7 cubic km of dense rock equivalent material).[2] Parts of the glacier melted and ran down the mountain as mud flows (see glacier run). Due to the remoteness of the area, no humans were killed but hundreds of people were evacuated from the vicinity. Ash fell on Chile and Argentina as well as in the South Atlantic Ocean and on the Falkland Islands.[3]

A little more rumbling at katla today

en.vedur.is...

Hmm getting worse a couple of mag 3+ now.

A micro earthquake occurred at 1:49:25 AM (PDT) on Friday, October 28, 2011.
The magnitude 2.0 event occurred 0 km (0 miles) S of Mount St. Helens Volcano, WA.
The hypocentral depth is 3 km ( 2 miles).

pnsn

looks like Mt Hudson has erupted ...

www.news24.com...

Santiago - A Chilean volcano has sent out an ash cloud more than 5km high, and authorities warn that a major eruption is possible.

hisz.rsoe.hu...

Chile’s Hudson Volcano released three huge columns of steam and ash that combined in a cloud more than 3 miles (5 kilometers) high on Friday, threatening a much larger eruption that had authorities in Chile and Argentina on red alert. Chilean officials evacuated 119 people from the immediate area, a

rather fast for an eruption to happen if you ask me .

Yes there are very worried indeed about this and say she is about to erupt.

Originally posted by zenius
Rainier still grumbling:

A micro earthquake occurred at 3:26:21 AM (PDT) on Tuesday, October 25, 2011. The magnitude 1.9 event occurred 24 km (15 miles) ENE of Ashford, WA. The hypocentral depth is 1 km (0.4 miles).

pnsn

I honestly think Mt. Ranier is going to blow...and baby when it does it will be a snowball effect imo. But hey....what do I know.

reply to post by Tzavros


is this Mt hudson?

reply to post by alysha.angel

Yes, just seen there is a thread for her. Hope she doesn't go as big as they seem to expect.

Here is a link to a news story about Mt. Hudson from a few minutes ago.
MercoPress

ETA: Oops, just saw the thread for this volcano--please disregard.

Originally posted by MamaJ

Originally posted by zenius
Rainier still grumbling:

A micro earthquake occurred at 3:26:21 AM (PDT) on Tuesday, October 25, 2011. The magnitude 1.9 event occurred 24 km (15 miles) ENE of Ashford, WA. The hypocentral depth is 1 km (0.4 miles).

pnsn

I honestly think Mt. Ranier is going to blow...and baby when it does it will be a snowball effect imo. But hey....what do I know.

i really doubt that rainer is about to blow and here is my proof ..
volcanoes.usgs.gov...

CASCADE RANGE VOLCANOES Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN Activity Update: All volcanoes in the Cascade Range are at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry Volcano, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake volcano, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

if she was about t oblow the USGS would be obligated by law to notify the general public and this is only a week old update ...

reply to post by alysha.angel


Thanks for the links....I have been trying my best to keep up to speed with all the geological activity although my love is EQ's.

I didn't say she was about to blow..... I just said she was going to. I will even go further and say ....maybe not this year but if activity continues then one (volcano) could no doubt set off another. This is my opinion and I do know others have one.