Volcano watch 2011

Originally posted by Aromaz
There are a number of volcanos active everyday of the year, all over the world.
Though interesting it is not so very strange and does not really affect anybody.

BUT - and this is a very big BUT:

When a volcano erupts, or new eruption it blows ash into the sky and often like this Russian volcanos - Sulphur Dioxide;
That is of importance to every person on earth - it will affect every living creature. Maybe only a little, maybe very big effect. When that ash cloud goes beyond 8,000 meters it imediatley gets picked up by the jet streams - then it can go intercontinental. We face serious climate changes and as you can see now on news - natural weather related disasters.

That all said: Some nice recent eruption photos here will also be very interesitng, welcome and appreciated. Let us see what we can learn from these fire spewing holes in the Earth.

edit on 17/6/2011 by Aromaz because: (no reason given)

Would you please be so kind as to explain to the "lay person", such as myself... what it means with the sulphur dioxide and it's affect on us? I'm still learning about volcanos and would really like to understand this more. What does this mean for all of us on earth?

Originally posted by radpetey
How does the volcanic activity of the last 12 months compare with the annual averages of the last 50 years.


Please forgive me if this info has already been posted.

If you take the number of volcano eruptions: Nothing abnormal.
If you take the number of high explosive ash clouds over 8,000 meters;
I would say increase of 35%; off the thumb.

To verify will need some tables and time.

Originally posted by UtahRosebud
Would you please be so kind as to explain to the "lay person", such as myself... what it means with the sulphur dioxide and it's affect on us? I'm still learning about volcanos and would really like to understand this more. What does this mean for all of us on earth?

Besides the horrible effect of Sulphur Dioxide + Water = Sulphuric Acid
which can cause sever skin burn. destruction of all plant and animals if high concentration > > >

Here is a very good explanation from USGS. I recomend everybody with interest in effects of volcanic ash to read this.

Effects of Volcanic Ash and Gases

NABRO is playing games.

Earthquakes:
17 June had 8 quakes between 3.9 and 5.8 with depth vary form 8,000 to 320 meters.
18 June - today: 4 quakes:
00h00 UTC = 3.3
02h47 UTC = 3.8
02h51 UTC = 3.1
04h37 UTC = 4.1

Since the 04h00 quake there is renewed ash plume, nicely visible on the 08h05 MODIS / LANCE sat image:

(C) NASA MODIS 2011: 18 June 2011 Data from 08h05
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b0fabe99b9ea.jpg[/atsimg]

Latest Infra Red images of Nabro and Shimbiris eruptions.

SAT24.com taken 18 June at 10h30 UTC - Nabro eruption and new start of Shimbiris:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/330a55d1a31c.jpg[/atsimg]

SAT24.com taken 18 June at 12h00 UTC - Nabro going quite strong, see lava spot and shimbiris flare strong to WNW. Also notice strong heat signature right at the tip of the Horn
.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d4da7cbdfefa.jpg[/atsimg]

Yep.
Was wondering if that wasn't another one at the tip of the Horn.

reply to post by Aromaz


First, I would like to say thank you for your very informative posts. You explain things well and your hypothesis are spot-on.

Second, with regards to the Mount Shibiri erupting, was this because it was close to a rift? What is the likelihood of a normal mountain blowing here in the US? There are hot springs in North Carolina. I hope that there won't be any mountains erupting in the Eastern US as there are many Nuclear power plants all over the eastern US. And since they found that Yellowstone was larger than originally anticipated, it makes a person wonder just what else is going on beneath the surface of the US.

Any thoughts you might have would be appreciated.

Thank you.

Third moderate Quake in 7 Days,near Lake Toba,all on the same Spot (see Picture)

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time Saturday, June 18, 2011 at 11:57:59 UTC
Saturday, June 18, 2011 at 06:57:59 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 1.843°N, 99.108°E
Depth 12.8 km (8.0 miles)
Region NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Distances 38 km (23 miles) ENE of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
54 km (33 miles) NNW of Padangsidempuan, Sumatra, Indonesia
123 km (76 miles) S of Pematangsiantar, Sumatra, Indonesia
1233 km (766 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.2 km (9.4 miles); depth +/- 6.6 km (4.1 miles)
Parameters NST= 51, Nph= 52, Dmin=95.7 km, Rmss=0.99 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usc0004ase

Source - USGS

reply to post by MountainEnigma


Sorry!! I did make a post on the other thread about 'Horn of Africa' which I opened up specially for info about this incident.
Pleae have a look there: Page 2

Horn of Africa - NEW Rift or Mountain from Nabro through Shibiris

It turns out that is was/is in effect an old or not-so-old volcano. See images on above site.

reply to post by Shenon


I am getting nightmares. New quakes at old volcanos does not make for good dreams!

I did not had much time to look around the world today; so thank you for pointing update.
Been scanning SAT data for info about NE Africa action.

reply to post by Aromaz


No need to get scared. According to PuterMan,those Quakes are normal And i guess Toba needs to show alot more Activity before it could be considered slightly dangerous.

reply to post by Aromaz


It's weird that you mention dreams/nightmares of volcanoes erupting becuase I too had a dream last night that a volcanoe erupted. NO, lol...I am not psychic nor do I claim to be able to predict anything...but in my dream, I lived at the base of a Mt. (which I do not) and suddenly, that Mt. began to just explode. I do however have several active and dormant volcanoes in my "backyard". But all in all, I have probably just been reading these threads far too much lately. Can't help it, I look forward each and every day to see what new progress has been made on the ones that have recently shown activity. Thanks for keeping us all in the know! Appreciate all the research and info you have provided us with! Keep up the good work! =)
peace

reply to post by Shenon

According to PuterMan,those Quakes are normal

If you are talking about Nabro then no they are not and I never said that

But if you are talking about Toba, then - I never said that either

www.youtube.com...

www.ouramazingplanet.com...

It is now a week since NABRO told the worls they forgot about his capabilities and made a wake-up call.

Here is a map with ongoing earthquakes at Nabro; still active!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/33c141e18a74.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by Aromaz


I am somewhat curious about their descriptions on the site to which you linked.

At 21:00 appears a volcanic tremor which is the typical signature of an eruption (see fig. 4). The 6 hours crisis is interpreted as the fracturation by the intrusion (dyke) migration from down (magma chamber ??) toward surface.

First here is the seismo at ATD - Arta Cave: ATD.G.00.HNZ.2011.163 I don't see obvious HT on that. Note that they are showing a seismo at Yemen 330 km distant which could be showing HT but seems to be very sensitive and I am far from convinced. That could be microseisms I thought. Having eventually sussed out that the co-ordinates on the top of the plot are wrong - it is 44.39 EAST not W - that places the seismo 127 km from the Red Sea and 142 km from the Gulf of Aden.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2cae8c9a9726.jpg[/atsimg]

So then I tried ATD and as you can see from the plot of ATD above there is no VT/HT/Microseisms showing. I also note that the geophysical centre for the area has to admit that web sites like earthquake-report were among the first to report the awakening after more than 150 years dormant.

I am further inspired with confidence NOT. They don't even know when it last erupted?

I find it somewhat curious that thy should use a seismo that not only is 110 km further away but not in the same country and them, when G-ADT is in the same place Arta, where they have their headquarters!

The only way to resolve the VT/HT question as far as I am concerned is to put the waveform and have a listen. I collected the file for ADT for 15:30hrs to 23:00 hrs UTC on 12th June. This covers the 21:03 supposed start of the volcanic/harmonic tremor.

Now I will accept that they don't state harmonic tremor, and I certainly cannot hear any harmonic tremor on the wave file. I am not 100% sure what volcanic tremor would sound like. John Search says:

Tremor is a continuous vibration of the ground around volcanoes. The signal lasts for a period from minutes to days.

The dominant frequency is 1-5 Hz. Harmonic tremor is a low frequency sine wave with smoothly varying amplitude. Spasmodic tremor is a high frequency, pulsating, irregular signal.

Volcanic tremor is a sustained seismic signal which is observed during either quiescent or active stages. The seismic signal results from the interaction between
hydrothermal-magmatic fluids and the surrounding rocks.

I listened to the section just before the eruption started. The area is marked on this image of the trace.



Here is the sound file: Nabro_pre_eruption.mp3

As you can here there is plenty going on, but this has no harmonic element to it, nor could it really be described and continuous - bearing in mind that this is at 110235 Hz - a little over 100 times the actual speed.

I then thought I would look at an area that relates to their seismogram after the eruption.



Note that the 5.7 at 20:32 looks quite a bit larger than the 5.7 at 09:03.

Here is the sound file for that 'quiet area' - amplified so you can hear it: Nabro_post_eruption.mp3

The only reason I avoided the part immediately after the eruption was to see if I could hear this tremor. So here is the spectrum of the immediate post eruption part.



Edit: Oops forgot the sound file for that
Nabro_immediate_post_eruption.mp3


Note the unwavering 4 Hz signal present throughout. Some would point the finger and say HAARP but I don't think that, but it certainly is NOT (see John Search above)

a low frequency sine wave with smoothly varying amplitude

There is no amplitude variance at all. Personally I don't think there is harmonic or volcanic tremor audible/visible on the wavefile/plot. Unfortunately that also means that I cannot pinpoint the exact start of the eruption. From the ash it was pre 21:00 but I cannot show that with this data.

Is the multitude of small quakes volcanic tremor? I don't know. They are not that frequent at normal speed.




HNZ above is a 100 Hz sample rate channel. I thought you might like the broadband version as well which is at 20 Hz sample rate: ATD.G.00.BHZ.2011.163




Just stepping forwards collecting the seismo files when I came across this one: ATD.G.00.BHZ.2011.168 This is the 5.5 on the 17th at 09:16 UTC. Why so HUGE compared to the 5.7 on the seismogram above? Here it is on HNZ as well: ATD.G.00.HNZ.2011.168

Thanks PuterMan, that helps a lot. I am going to take some time to really process it all;
including hopefully collect more data.

Djibouti has their data a little askew, they were caught completley off guard with this whole thing causing confusion. Their problem is lack of self confidence; they kept on thinking their data is wrong because VAAC stays different - and those French were data really wrong. So they used data from Yemen to try and verify; Yemen is also confused but has the Arab over confidence problem. Unfortunatley instruments in that area is rare and those that are - are very old.

In the mean time, looking at the Excel file I sent to you:
Based on OGA data (Before they got excited) I would rather suspect the eruption took place:

a) Most likely everything started venting out at 16h44 - Depth 80m quake
and optionally the period from 18h53 to 20h02 with as little as 60m deep quake the final blow off.
b) In the GE file there is NABRO>Surface Vents / Eruptions Alphapetially order of tremors:
Follow the sequence A-B-C-D-E; back at position C.
C) I think A-D was initial vents, but still not 'free flow'; biggest part of eruption was at group C-E,F,G&H
Position C started cracking at 19h31 and pressure finally blew this vent wide open from 22hoo to 04h00.
That is also where we see the lava river most of the time on Modis images since 17 June.

Hopefully we can get more High Res from NASA in near future. Now that they realized this might be the highest SO2 (Sulphur Dioxide) Plume recorded from space; they might be more interested in analysis.

reply to post by Aromaz


Here is a bit more for you, and a suggestion that Djibouti are wrong on the eruption start which I have maintained was before 2103 UTC.

Using the ASH maps the amount of plume showing at 2100 was 26 pixels wide and at 2200 it was 79 pixels wide. Measuring the distance Red Sea to border I get a distance of 24 pixels. Taking this to Google Earth and measuring the same spot I get ~68 km.

So if 24 pixels is 68km then 1 pixel is about 2.833 km. In the hour between the images (21oo to 2200) that means the ash cloud travelled ~150 km. 26 pixels represents ~73.6 km so that represents about 29.43 minutes. Call that 30 minutes. The 21:03 quake happened 30 minutes after the first ash appeared and that takes us back to 2033, which is when the earthquake that I say looks larger (see my previous post) occurred. (20:32:37)

Case closed. As far as the ash cloud is concerned, the eruption started either because of, or caused, the 2011-06-12 20:32:37 UTC earthquake. Whether that was preceded by other outflows I cannot say but the first major venting was at 2032.

Note to all:
Aromaz has kindly done an excellent Excel spreadsheet. I have placed a copy in Excel 2007(xlsx) format here and in Excel 97-2003(xls) format here.

@Aromaz: hope that is OK to share?

reply to post by alysha.angel

I monitor this website regularly: hisz.rsoe.hu...
They monitor sixteen super volcanos throughout the world. As of today, they now show twelve have become active this year alone! Can anyone confirm if this is true?

watch SAN PEDRO volcano in chili... 6.5 EQ at 10 km distance,,,,

wikipedia:
San Pedro is one of the tallest active volcanoes in the world. It is located on the edge of the Atacama Desert, in Chile. San Pablo volcano is its neighbor to the east and from which is connected by a high saddle. Cerro Paniri volcano lies on the opposite side of the San Pedro River Valley. When climbing this volcano you have to wear a mask over your mouth to block out harmful toxins.