N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

Originally posted by dude69
South Korean intelligence officials have stated that North Korea is allegedly
building a tunnel for nuclear tests?

That's what worries me... If they have enough to test, they must have more than enough to use.

reply to post by CanadianDream420


Yeah...apparently they've been busy bees:..this was reported about their second nuclear test 2009: " Russian defence experts estimated the explosion's yield at between 10 and 20 kilotons, many times more than the 1 kiloton measured in its first nuclear test in 2006 and about as powerful as the bombs the US used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the second world war. "

It's no match for today's American/British nuclear warheads who's explosive force is around 100 kt, but I guess they got something there.

reply to post by dude69


How many goblin's would the wobblin' goblin' wobble if the wobblin' goblin' would wobble goblins?

South Korea doesn't seem to be messing around this time. If the north attack, then South Korea will head off and launch missiles, and war will be back on.

reply to post by DaRAGE

Except South Korea have less ``missiles`` than North Korea.

That's what worries me... If they have enough to test, they must have more than enough to use.

That's not necessary the case. They will be doing a test to mark the 100 year anniversary of Kim Il Sung... for them, propaganda is more important than available nuclear material, they don't care if they use all of it to mark this anniversary. Anyway, analysts think they have enough enriched material for a maximum of 12 bombs.

This could very well be a made up threat to justify an Invasion of NK...with America backing SK up completely now and both of them deploying more troops around the Peninsula.

Hmm no. This is logic. And probably many independent analysts can confirm that they are indeed doing that. And as we know, the US is NOT deploying more troops to South Korea and the closest US aircraft carrier battle group is in Japan.

To carry out an invasion/air strikes against the North, as per their OPLAN 5026, they need to deploy more troops/bombers/aircraft carriers in South Korea...which has not happened yet.

Top headlines in major S. Korean newspapers

-- President Lee's former classmate named new Army chief (Kyunghyang Shinmun)

Gee what a coincidence...

-- Kim Jong-il agrees with China's request to inspect nuclear program (Kookmin Daily)

Really? That could be interesting.

-- Putin urges N. Korea to halt nuclear program (Chosun Ilbo)

Good.

S. Korean nuclear envoy rules out dialogue, calls for pressure on N. Korea

South Korea's chief nuclear envoy said Wednesday that dialogue with North Korea is not an option right now, calling for greater international pressure on Pyongyang to stop provocations after its deadly shelling of a South Korean island.

Yep talks right now would be a joke. Especially since NKorea are obviously planning more provocations, especially in April.

Me thinks the propaganda/provocations from NKorea will peak until about April 15-20 then it'll be down...

Thing is, by then, will have war started? If not, then it will still be spring, and that means fishing season, which always end up in someone kidnapping a fishing boat, or someone shooting a fishing boat...

N.Korea's Nuke Tech 'Much More Advanced' Than Iran's

North Korea's uranium enrichment program "appears to be much more advanced and efficient than the Iranian program, which is running into problems," according to the White House coordinator for weapons of mass destruction Gary Samore. He was quoted as making the comment by the New York Times on Tuesday.

Lots of people are thinking about ``outside help`` they are getting... from who, they suspect Russia, since they've given them nuclear material before, like in 2006, and China, which is obviously a big ally of NKorea.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Does anyone think this may be the real deal?

I heard Russia was on high alert.

reply to post by TheFonz


Well right now Richardson and Wolf Blitzer are arriving in Pyongyang... so no war in the coming days at least. If war there is to be, it'll be this spring.

Birthday of Jong-un isn’t cause to celebrate

Kim Jong-un’s status as successor to his father, Kim Jong-il, may not be totally secure if evidence from North Korean calendars for 2011 is to be believed.

Two calendars obtained by the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday marked Jan. 8, Kim Jong-un’s birthday, in black. In contrast, Feb. 16, his father’s birthday, is printed in red. The calendars, different in design but both bearing the name of a Pyongyang publishing company, were obtained from Japan.

As in South Korea, calendars in North Korea mark holidays in red. South Korean intelligence officials have determined that Jong-un, the third son of Kim Jong-il, was born on Jan. 8, 1984.

“Kim Jong-un was publicly named successor to his father with his promotion to vice chairman of the Central Military Commission on Sept. 28, but North Korea’s attempt to build a cult of personality around him appears not yet to have been put into full swing,” said a Seoul official.

Now if only Kim Jong Il could die...like RIGHT NOW before his son gets credibility... that would be great and could bring change maybe even peaceful reunification!

S.Korea Must Use Its Own 'Asymmetric' Warfare

The Kim Jong-il regime is most scared of two things. One is mass defections. If the people simply flee one by one, the regime will crumble very quickly. That is why the North Korea-China border is regarded as a second front and guarded by regular troops. The other is that knowledge about outside world through South Korean radio broadcasts, propaganda leaflets and TV programs can shake the North Korean system at the root. The South’s most powerful asymmetric weapon, therefore, is information that can enlighten 20 million North Korean people.

The South has never filed a proper protest with the Chinese government against the repatriation of North Korean refugees. Under the Constitution, North Koreans are South Korean citizens. The South Korean government is responsible for all North Koreans who protest against the Kim Jong-il regime by means of defection. It must fully mobilize its diplomatic capacities to stop the tragedy of North Korean refugees being caught by Chinese security forces and sent back to the North. The president must formally raise the issue with the Chinese leadership and put money and effort into helping more North Koreans leave the country for freedom.

There should also be more leaflets and radio broadcasts to the North. Large quantities of food could also be attached to helium balloons and floated to the North. North Korean troops secretly eat instant noodles South Korean forces sent to the North by balloons prior to the Kim Dae-jung administration.

Indeed. China must stop their BS...sending back the defecting North Koreans back to North Korea is signing their death warrants... and this is BS. North Koreans are considered South Koreans citizens under the constitution... interesting. Also sending food over the DMZ with balloons is a very good idea...

S. Korea, China, Japan sign agreement on establishing cooperation secretariat

South Korea, China and Japan signed an agreement Thursday to establish a cooperation secretariat in Seoul next year, a landmark accord that represents the first treaty between the neighbors whose relations have often soured over history and other disputes.

Good news.

I don't see a war in the immediate future... minimum April... unless for some reason China is arming NKorea for war in the spring...something like inflation in China and unrest...which is happening.... but very unlikely.

And the more I think about it, the more I think that NKorea did not sink that South Korean warship back in March.

Well it didn't take long for me to be wrong on the ``no war for now``...

Live-fire drill on Yeonpyeong to begin as soon as Saturday, depending on weather. #DPRK used previous such firing as excuse to shell island. half a minute ago via TweetDeck

So HOPEFULLY THE WEATHER IS BAD... and if it ain't... well HOPEFULLY Richardson had enough effect to calm down NKorea...

This looks like they DEFINITELY plan to shell again the island... see what Kim just did :
N. Korean leader makes first public visit to military unit since shelling

This ain't good at all. Last time Little Kim visited the unit just before they attacked the island...

Los Angeles-Class fast-attack submarine USS Pasadena (SSN 752) departed Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam Dec. 14 for a scheduled six-month deployment to the western Pacific region.

Interesting uh?

(URGENT) N. Korea says it supports dialogue but will never "beg" for it

Japan, the United States and South Korea have agreed on five conditions that North Korea must meet, including previous obligations to end its nuclear weapons program, to resume the six-party talks.

No way in hell that happens. Forget talks. China will say that they are too demanding...

Adding to tension, activists plan to fly anti-DPRK leaflets from Yeonpyeong island as early as tomorrow.

Something the NKorean regime really fear.

Xinhua: NM Gov. Richardson arrives in Pyongyang.

Hopefully that helps.

# DPRK gov't statement claims U.S. |"systematically breached all international agreements calling for peace & stability on Korean Peninsula." about 5 hours ago via TweetDeck

# DPRK: U.S. keen on stirring up war atmosphere on Korean Peninsula while persistently sidestepping proposals for dialogue w- preconditions. about 5 hours ago via TweetDeck

Now that's just silly.

Chinese military buildup far exceeds its defensive needs: US‎

Hypocrisy much?

Here are a couple of interesting developments.

South Korea moves to boost ties with China in wake of North Korea attacks

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has announced that it is increasing its annual China-related budget next year to 3 billion won ($2.6 million), a nearly eight-fold increase from this year's 390 million won ($340,000). The government is hoping that the increase will send a clear message to China that after a period of tense relations – which included a series of naval drills that irked Beijing – it is ready to talk.

The new budget will cover task forces that tackle anti-Korean sentiment in China and a new China Center that will bring together academics and politicians to craft stronger diplomatic policies. Additionally, a bilateral strategic dialogue between the two nations will advance from the vice-ministerial to the ministerial level.

US Official Lands in North Korea

Unofficial U.S. envoy Bill Richardson has arrived in Pyongyang for talks in North Korea. But also Thursday, the South Korean military announced it would conduct live fire drills on Yeonpyeong Island. (Dec. 16)

reply to post by SLAYER69


Not to be a pain... but I already posted both those news items...

Gen. Cartwright, perhaps stating the obvious, says this weekend's South Korea drill risks out of control chain reaction if NK responds

Well if a US General thinks the poo could hit the fan, that worries me...

State Dept. on #ROK artillery drill planned on Yeonpyeong: #DPRK "would be very unwise to react to what South Korea has announced." 13 minutes ago via web

Great move there, taunting them to attack...

State Dept.: "We want to make sure that China is using its influence to try to steer North Korea in a different direction." 12 minutes ago via web

Ahahahaha... and that worked well for the last 57 years right? Hopefully the State Dept. is not serious and this is just for show and they really are doing something real behind the curtain...

US chief nuke negotiator Sung Kim to meet in Seoul today with his ROK counterpart Wi Sung-lac to discuss #DPRK. 9 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Hopefully making a list of all the nuclear sites to hit with airstrikes if war breaks out.

Russia ‘coming together’ with partners on N.K.

Well hopefully they are more ``partners`` than China..


UPDATE : VERY IMPORTANT ABOUT THE LIVE FIRE DRILL ON THE YEONPYEONG ISLAND... US TROOPS WILL BE THERE.

Some 20 military personnel from the U.S. forces in South Korea will help South Korean troops in the one-day drill to be held between Saturday and Tuesday by providing medical, communications and intelligence support, officials said.

Now what happens if US troops are injured or killed if NKorea shells the island again? Yeah...

When they talk about this on CNN... yeah ain't good.

General: South Korea drill could cause 'chain reaction'

The U.S. military is concerned that South Korea's live-fire artillery exercises planned for coming days could spark an uncontrollable clash with the North, but the State Department said the exercises are not meant to be threatening or provocative.

"What we worry about, obviously, is if that is misunderstood or if it's taken advantage of as an opportunity," Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday at the Pentagon. "If North Korea were to react to that in a negative way and fire back at those firing positions on the islands, that would start potentially a chain reaction of firing and counter-firing."

Well duh.

If war breaks out, I'll remind you of this :
War with N.Korea poses nightmare scenarios

"Official Pentagon models assume it would take months to win the war at a cost approaching one million casualties or more, all told, including dead and wounded," Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.

"And that's without nuclear (or chemicals) weapons being used," said O'Hanlon, who wrote a book looking at the effects of a potential war.

Larry Bond wrote a book years ago called Red Pheonix, In it the second Korean war opens on XMAS eve. It's not a bad read and it's time may have come again. The question of mobility of mechanized forces on frozen ground and tactical surprise make Xmas appealing to some planners I am sure.

I'm reading another book on North Korea called ``Nuclear North Korea`` and it's quite interesting.

North Korea could perceive some use of limited force as a rational and optimal choice even when there is little or no hope of victory. The danger is not that the regime will commit suicide knowingly, but that it will encounter situations where belligerent ``lashing out`` or ``striking first`` is the best and only policy---the unintended consequence of which (given likely US and ROK military responses) is suicide and/or collapse.

The logic of preemptive and preventive action, borrowed from international relations theory, suggests conditions under which the recourse to hostility can be a rational act even if objective factors weigh against victory. Preemption occurs when a state perceives aggression by another as imminent and acts first to forestall the impending attack. Preventive action occurs when a state is motivated to attack first, or otherwise suffer increasing inferiority in capabilities vis-à-vis the opponent over time. Though preemptive and preventive motivations represent two discrete paths to conflict, they are similar in a number of respects.

What are those ?

First, they are motivated by fear more than aggression.

And North Korea is afraid... their meeting in China in May showed that... Kim asked China for J-10s because he was afraid of war. China refused, but said they would help if war broke out. Also China not giving them rice...and corn instead... while the regime is in the process of changing head... plenty of reasons for Little Kim to be afraid.

Second, both are act of anticipation. The decision to preempt or prevent hinges as much on misperception and images of the adversary as on the objective military situation.

Little Kim saw the South as weak when they did nothing when their warship was sunk. Also Little Kim might really think that those drills are preparation for full invasion.

Third, both types of belligerency stem from a fundamental dissatisfaction with the status quo. States do an expected-utility calculation in which the costs of the current situation are higher than the costs of change. In the preemptive situation, maintaining the status quo means being the victim of imminent aggression. In the preventive situation, maintaining the status quo means certain inferiority and defeat in the future. In both cases, the expected costs of peace are higher than the potential costs of conflict.

I think this is the most important point...

Kim doesn't like the present situation.

Status quo.
- China is not giving them enough food.
- No talks
- Drills

Expected cost of status quo :
- Not enough food : riots, rebellion, regime change, troops not ready to fight
- No talks : no possible way for peace treaty so US troops would leave the peninsula
- Drills : Preparation for invasion

A little preventive action to have change :
- Chances of US-ROK doing a regime change : very low since the South doesn't want it's economy to crash and Obama is seen as ``weak``.
- Chances of US-ROK returning to peace talks, wanting a deal : high since it always worked in the past.
- Gives more acceptance to Kim Jong Un as next leader

Me thinks this is what Little Kim is thinking. And that's why he shelled the island... he thought that it was better to do it than not do it.

Now what will Little Kim do this time...

Here's what he's thinking.
- Shelling the island again during the exercises will lead to :
1. South Korea will carry out limited airstrikes/limited artillery barrage on the positions who fired.
2. North Korea will shell another island/shoot down a plane
3. People will panic that full scale war might start again.
4. People will call for a immediate talks, a huge carrot for North Korea and maybe even a peace treaty.

That's why I think he will shell the island again, expecting a big carrot in the end.

Now it will depend on what ROK/US plan to do.

reply to post by Vitchilo



I got all that except in 3. and 4. what people are you referring to (bottom of page)? N. Korea's people - if so I doubt they have any say in the matter, they are thinking about what they are going to get to eat. Kim could care less about his people - just his military IMO.

reply to post by crazydaisy


People... by people I mean the South Koreans/investors/economists/Americans... A war would cost a boatload of money to the US and South Korea and probably to the world economy as a whole.

China investing in North Korean islands close to border

China is set to lease two islands from North Korea on the Yalu River bordering the two countries to set up free trade zones and tourist facilities, Chinese sources said.

The two allies have also cooperated on a number of other economic projects, such as construction of a large bridge linking Dandong and Sinuiju and the joint development of Rajin and Chongjin ports in northeastern North Korea.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il apparently discussed development of the islands with Chinese leaders when he visited China earlier this year.

The project requires a long-term commitment by both countries. International fallout from North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island late last month will not affect the project, an official said.

Gee more Chinese investment in North Korea... Thanks much China for helping rein in NKorea...