N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

3) Japan has the know-how, knowledge and capability to build a nuclear weapon, or facilities and expertise to build a nuclear weapon are in place, and all it needs is the go-ahead by the Japanese government to do so.

Yes. It's been known for a while that if Japan needed nukes, they would be able to roll a bunch of them within a year.

So I think this is what Lavrov referred to when he said ``dormant nuclear power``... Canada is probably one too, Germany too, Ukraine might be, but they have given up their nukes... Taiwan too...but Taiwan developing nukes and fielding them would probably create WW3....Switzerland for sure. South Korea could if they wanted to...Belgium too even.

This is easy stuff. The only thing you need really is enriched uranium. Which you have for sure if you have nuclear power plants...

reply to post by Vitchilo


The unnamed North Korean officer (Always wary about such sources termed as such, especially in a Japanese Newspaper, which leaves you wondering how they got to talk to this "unnamed North Korean officer") may be referring to what would happen if North Korea felt it's territory was violated again.

If the North Korean source is genuine (And even if it is, how high is he in the North Korean military and thus reflective of North Korean official policy, we have to ask ourselves) then this threat to target Seoul is verbal detterence, literally to try to portray what terrible things North Korea will do if they feel provoked enough.

Perhaps North Korea feels a war really is imminent against them. A timely reminder that in the event of war, South Korea could wave goodbye to Seoul may well be a timely warning.

Always wary about "unnamed North Korean" sources quoted in Japanese newspapers, especially when they are quoted as making such aggressive statements. I would prefer to have the North Korean named, to see if he is a genuine source, and how high up in the North Korean military/government here is.

If he is genuine, he may be just a Corporal talking the good fight.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

So I think this is what Lavrov referred to when he said ``dormant nuclear power``... Canada is probably one too, Germany too, Ukraine might be, but they have given up their nukes... Taiwan too...but Taiwan developing nukes and fielding them would probably create WW3....Switzerland for sure. South Korea could if they wanted to...Belgium too even.

This is easy stuff. The only thing you need really is enriched uranium. Which you have for sure if you have nuclear power plants...

The question remains then is when we will know that Japan does have nuclear weapons, as opposed to being dormant.

I think Japan's concerns about North Korea, as well as more importantly perhaps, the ongoing Chinese-Japanese territorial disputes may be a factor to whether Japan will have nuclear weapons.

reply to post by Regensturm


IMO Japan will roll them out when the US collapses or China takes over Taiwan/South Korea/contested islands... or North Korea develops a working ICBM/nuclear tipped missile that works.

So it shouldn't be too long now.

South Korea Readies for Artillery Drills on Disputed Sea Border

South Korea’s military said it is preparing to carry out the first live-fire artillery drills along its disputed western sea border since the deadly shelling of Yeonpyeong island by its communist neighbor.

As more than 40,000 Japanese and U.S. troops begin joint exercises today, South Korea warned shipping to avoid 29 areas around its coast starting Dec. 6. One zone lies about 7 miles (11 kilometers) off Daechong island, in waters claimed by the North that are about 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the South Korean mainland.

South Korea hasn’t decided when it will next hold artillery exercises on Yeonpyeong, said a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to be identified, citing military policy. The National Intelligence Service believes North Korea may launch another attack on the South, Grand National Party lawmaker Rhee Beum Kwan said, citing testimony to parliament this week by the spy-agency’s director, Won Sei-Hoon.

Link

If something flares up as a result of the current drills, and there is involvement of the US, NK, SK and Japan.....

What will China do?

Wikileaks, if we want to believe them or not, has released cables showing the Chinese leaning both ways.

An interesting commentary from one South Korean politician...

`N. Korea wants 5 Yellow Sea islands uninhabited`

North Korea wants five South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea to become uninhabited in an apparent bid to claim them in the wake of the North`s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, a leading politician said Thursday.

“Many experts say the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island is intended to turn the five Yellow Sea islands into deserted territory and make them subject to a territorial dispute.”

“If North Korea commits another provocation, it will likely attack and occupy Wu Island, a deserted island located six kilometers from the Northern Limit Line and eight kilometers from North Korea’s Hampak Island.”

Wu is strategically located between Incheon and the five islands, with Wu having just one combat company with handguns.

Chung said, “If Wu Island becomes helpless, residents of the five islands in the Yellow Sea are likely to flee their islands, and that is exactly what North Korea wants. If this is the case, the five islands will likely to be isolated. The port of Incheon and Incheon International Airport are only 80 kilometers from Wu and could be threatened.”

Indeed.... and that Tokyo newspaper quoting a North Korean officer said that the North would do something big on the South Korean west coast... this might just be their plan....

Satellite images show S.Korean shelling ineffective

South Korea in response fired 80 rounds from its much-touted indigenous K-9 self-propelled guns.

But Kim, citing satellite images published by global intelligence company Stratfor, told a ruling party meeting that 35 of them landed in the sea while 45 others reached North Korean land.

Of those which hit the mainland, only 14 got relatively close to the North's artillery positions.

"(When South Koreans fired back) North Korean artillery guns had already slid back into tunnels and even a single shell did not reach the target," Kim was quoted as saying by Yonhap news agency.

"The 14 shots appeared to have landed here and there on rice paddies."

That some BIG BIG BIG BIG FAIL right there... Not even ONE single hit... The South is in real trouble if war breaks out for real.... North Korea is always touted as a ``push-over``... by a lot of people... but the US generals aren't saying ``would take several months and a million dead`` to take down North Korea for nothing...

Originally posted by butcherguy
If something flares up as a result of the current drills, and there is involvement of the US, NK, SK and Japan.....

What will China do?

Wikileaks, if we want to believe them or not, has released cables showing the Chinese leaning both ways.

I think China would back up NK. If that was the case I think the US would be in trouble. I have no idea on how Japan got involved though

reply to post by naraku
Japan and China have long been enemies, and I won't take sides on their historical arguments.

But Japan does view China as a threat.

Yonhap quotes source saying #DPRK recently increased number of multiple-launch rockets by 100 pieces to some 5,200 which can hit Seoul.

Wow that is some interesting news. 100 more MLRS's is no mean feat.

EDIT - More Below

North Korea Boosts Rockets, Tanks; May Target Seoul, Yonhap Says

North Korea has increased the number of multiple rocket launchers, bolstering its capability to attack South Korea’s capital, Yonhap News reported, citing a South Korean government official it didn’t identify.

North Korea has more than 5,200 240-millimeter multiple rocket launchers, 100 more than previously estimated, Yonhap reported. The 240-mm rocket launchers have a range of 60 kilometers and can fire as many as 22 rockets in 35 minutes, according to the report.

North Korea has also increased the number of tanks by 200 and the country’s air force has bolstered its capability to intercept planes, Yonhap said.

Link

SEOUL, Dec. 3 (Yonhap) -- The following are the top headlines in major Korean newspapers on Dec. 3. Korean-language dailies
-- U.S. resolution includes call for early settlement of free trade deal (Kyunghyang Shinmun)
-- 'N.K. has secret underwater nuclear facility' (Kookmin Daily)
-- S. Korea lost to N. Korea in electronic warfare during Yeonpyeong attack (Donga llbo)
--N.K. may strike Gyeonggi Province within year: report (Segye Times)
-- Most of S. Korean shells miss targets in N. Korea (JoongAng Ilbo)
-- Young N. Korean elite defects to S. Korea (Chosun Ilbo)
-- Presidential office downplays intelligence on N. Korea's attack plan in Aug. (Hankyoreh)
-- Only 10 of 80 rounds of shells hit N.K. battery positions (Hankook Ilbo)
-- Samsung Group to have personnel changes today (Maeil Business Newspaper)
-- N.K. may strike Gyeonggi Province within year: report (Seoul Shinmun)

Link

Originally posted by nonnez

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Yeah that phalanx system against a missile going at 13000 mph... MIRV... good luck with that.

Phalanx won't be able to stop that missile when it's finished. Forget it. It won't be a simple anti-ship missile. It will be a MIRV intercontinental ballistic missile, probably launched from a submarine.

But you forget this little number when the United States used a naval asset (Aegis System) to down a satellite in orbit; the satellite was traveling quite fast:

The satellite and the missile will be heading toward each other at about 22,000 mph. The satellite is about the size of a school bus, authorities have said, and the missile will be aimed at its fuel tank, which is about 3 or 4 feet long.

Source

They used a special missile, on a Destroyer, not the "aegis system" which refers to a combination of radar and gatling guns.

reply to post by Vitchilo


What Chung failed to mention is that one company on Wu island is known as the Wu-Tang Clan. From what I have heard they are not one to mess with. More specifically, "Wu-Tang Clan ain't nuttin' to fmess wit!"
Third line

North Korea has also increased the number of tanks by 200 and the country’s air force has bolstered its capability to intercept planes, Yonhap said.

Yeah but that means NOTHING.... unless China supplies them with a boatload of oil....which they might just do.... if North Korea starts rolling down the DMZ with thousands of tanks, you'll know that China PREPARED this offensive.

-- 'N.K. has secret underwater nuclear facility' (Kookmin Daily)

Say what? Never heard of that before.

-- S. Korea lost to N. Korea in electronic warfare during Yeonpyeong attack (Donga llbo)

Say what? When North Korea a third world country with (almost) no internet beats a first world country like SKorea in electronic warfare... you know you're in trouble.

--N.K. may strike Gyeonggi Province within year: report (Segye Times)

So it's confirmed by Yonhap that it wasn't just made up tabloid BS... of course it could still be wrong, but this ain't looking good.

What Chung failed to mention is that one company on Wu island is known as the Wu-Tang Clan. From what I have heard they are not one to mess with. More specifically, "Wu-Tang Clan ain't nuttin' to fmess wit!"

Aren't they a music band?

China says to 'brandish weapons' won't solve N.Korea crisis

A split over North Korea deepened Thursday as China said to talk with the nuclear-armed regime was better than to "brandish weapons", while the United States, South Korea and Japan planned new war games.

And talking will? Because it sure as hell didn't in the last 60 years... anyway division between China/NKorea and the west is increasing.

Clinton holds talks on North Korea with China, Russia

"I've already spoken to high-ranking Chinese and Russian officials and we will discuss how we can work together to try to avoid conflict," she said during a brief visit to Kyrgyzstan.

Well at least she's trying...

N.Korea crisis reveals impatience with Chinese caution

The failure of China's call for emergency talks on North Korea's latest act of aggression indicates the United States and its allies are tiring of Beijing coddling Pyongyang, analysts said Thursday.

China may face further isolation over the issue and the loss of its coveted image as a "responsible" regional peacemaker unless it gets tougher on its wayward neighbour, they said.

Yeah well... hopefully.

US Sect'y of State Clinton: #ROK "has exercised great restraint" to avoid war in wake of #DPRK attacks. #Koreas about 8 hours ago via TweetDeck

Well yeah a lot of people are mad about it too.

Japan Defense Ministry confirms KEEN SWORD underway -- largest ever joint drill with U.S. forces. about 6 hours ago via TweetDeck

And so it starts... I wonder if China has a few submarines in the area to watch those...

Next casualty of the Nov. 23 #DPRK shelling may be the #ROK natl. intelligence chief... about 5 hours ago via TweetDeck

Well yeah he didn't do his job...he should have warned the government about the North Korean saying that they would bomb the island if SKorea went ahead with the drills.

Won Sei-hoon told lawmakers he had advance knowledge of #DPRK plan to attack border islands. Joint Chiefs of Staff calls the remark untrue. about 5 hours ago via TweetDeck

So who's right...

#ROK defense minister nominee now being grilled by lawmakers. #Koreas about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck

Will the new defense minister be kicked out too?

KIDA's Baek Seong Joo: #ROK sunshine policy has proven to be "a total failure." #Koreas about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

And no sunshine policy = more ``confrontation-war-threat`` policy... more chances of going to war...

Baek: "We need to endure temporary N-S tension in order to gain peace" on Korean peninsula. about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Probably right... wait until the succession have been done... thing is it could take YEARS.

USFK , in reply to my query, states it has no "authority to restrict use" of ROK's armed forces until they're under combined command. about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

So for now the US can't stop ROK army from counterattack.

Thus if #ROK wants to launch bombers against #DPRK, as defense min. designee stated today, if again shelled, they can. #Koreas about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

So basically, if North Korea bombs anywhere again, South Korea is gonna launch BOMBERS against the North? You think North Korea is gonna stay silent about that?

Might be good news...

# The drills were set to begin next week but now "end of the year at the latest" per MND official speaking to reporters. 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck

# Yonhap: ROK defense ministry says new live fire Yellow Sea artillery drills delayed until after new defense minister takes office. 8 minutes ago via TweetDeck

So the drills for now are delayed...so more time for China to calm down NKorea.

Originally posted by HattoriHanzou

They used a special missile, on a Destroyer, not the "aegis system" which refers to a combination of radar and gatling guns.

The ship was actually a cruiser, the USS Lake Erie . . . an *** AEGIS SYSTEM *** testbed, not a destroyer. I was simply trying to illustrate that the technology is in place to counter a missile attack. Sure an enemy could get enough missiles/MIRV s through to nail a carrier if they really wanted to, but I think that small scale attacks could potentially be thwarted. You should read up on the Aegis System though; it is a little more than just the Phalanx.

Anyway I do not want to keep off topic but just had to respond . . .


I offer you this:

The satellite malfunctioned shortly after deployment, and was intentionally destroyed 14 months later on February 21, 2008, by a modified, $9.5 million SM-3 missile fired from the warship USS Lake Erie, stationed west of Hawaii.

Source

Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System testbed In August 1998, as part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, modifications were made aboard Lake Erie and Port Royal, which consisted of modifications to the Aegis weapons system on board Ticonderoga-class cruisers; a modification, known as Linebacker, and which uses specialized computing and radar software and hardware to provide improved tracking and reporting capabilities, and when coupled with the SM-2 Block IVA, intercept Tactical Ballistic Missiles (TBM). Ballistic missile testing afforded Port Royal and other participants an opportunity to flex the capabilities of the current Aegis weapon system against a live ballistic missile target and gave a representation of how the modified system tracks and destroys TBMs.

Source

Also . . . Good job on keeping all this info flowing Vitchilo. I check this thread throughout the day for info.

Thanks...

More news...
US, Japan Begin War Games; China Denounces Drills

In an ongoing show of force following a deadly North Korean attack on a front-line island, the U.S. and Japan began one of their biggest-ever military exercises Friday, mobilizing more than 44,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft and a U.S. supercarrier.

The drills come just after the U.S. and South Korea concluded maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. The exercises brought immediate criticism from China, which is wary of having foreign navies off its shores and has been increasingly assertive over large swaths of waters in the south and east China seas, where some of the drills would take place.

Yeah China doesn't like when the US is around their waters... kind of like the US wouldn't like it if China and North Korea were doing drills right off California's coast..

The War Games are over, but North Korea hasn't blinked. The US is running out of options

So, the USS George Washington is steaming back towards Japan after four days of joint exercises in the Yellow Sea, and here we still are. However, while the immediate danger of further conflagration may have passed, the situation on the Korean peninsula remains perilous.

Seoul has already announced further exercises for next week (it was a live fire drill that Pyongyang used as a pretext for last week’s bombardment) and is talking about stationing short-range missiles on the island that was attacked. This might be posturing on the part of the Lee government – which is under serious pressure at home not to “turn the other cheek” if the North attacks again – but it will certainly keep that disputed sea border on a hair-trigger for the forseeable future.

Equally worrying is the diplomatic deadlock which has put China flatly at odds with America (and South Korea and Japan) over how to handle Pyongyang. The divisions were made abundantly clear from the fact that the US, Japan and South Korea are planning talks in Washington (not Beijing) next week, while China has blocked all attempts to get a censure of North Korea at the UN in New York.

Yep this ain't over yet.

And from a few chinese-english military forums I've read, chinese people really think that China-Russia will roll in if North Korea falls/US-SK cross the DMZ.

Hopefully it won't end up like that...

reply to post by Vitchilo
If things do 'go hot' for the US/SK over there, I would be surprised if we actually crossed over the DMZ.

I think it would be limited to air strikes and missiles.

But that depends on NK's response and escalation from there.

Not sure if this has been posted... but just in case...

S. Korean spies ignored intercepted attack threat

www.dallasnews.com< br />
SEOUL, South Korea – South Korea's spies had information indicating North Korea might attack a front-line island in August, but the intelligence chief dismissed it as a routine threat.

Yeonpyeong Island, a tiny enclave of civilians and military bases near a disputed maritime border, endured a barrage of North Korean shells last week, and lawmakers in Seoul slammed the government Thursday for the intelligence failure. The surprise revelation came the day before in an unusually candid private briefing by spy chief Won Sei-hoon.

There's differing interpretations of what the actual spy data included, but needless to say, it's not going down well in the eyes of the folks in South Korea..

South Korea's defense minister vows airstrikes if North Korea attacks

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korea's new defense minister said his country would respond with airstrikes if North Korea attacks it again, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported Friday.

"We will definitely air raid North Korea," Kim Kwan-jin said at his confirmation hearing when asked how the South would respond if struck again.



www.cnn.com...

reply to post by CanadianDream420


Added conspircay fun with quote from South Korean Minister of National Defense
Apparently, from his mouth, the ROK and US forces are under SK control (I personaly doubt that).

“I will deploy all available forces and if that is not enough, will add (ROK-US) combined forces and then counter-attack. I will revise the rules of engagement that way.”

source
www.dailynk.com...